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Sunday, December 11, 2011

Home Loans and Trade Balance lower "Down Under"

Data released this evening for Australia shows a considerable drop in Home Loans and Trade Balance as shown on the graphs below (provided courtesy of www.forexfactory.com).

The Daily chart below of the AUD/USD forex pair shows that price is currently sitting on its 50 sma (red). It has been rejected after several recent attempts to move higher just below the 200 sma (pink). Price is trading in between the +1 deviation level and "mean" of the shorter downtrending regression channel, and in between the "mean" and -1 deviation level of the longer uptrending regression channel. A failure to hold above the 50 sma and the 1.00 "mean" level could send price down to around 0.97, which is a confluence of the -1 deviation level of both channels...a fairly major support level for this timeframe.

The 4-Hour chart below of the AUD/USD shows a confluence of immediate overhead Fibonacci and price resistance at 1.02 and a confluence of immediate Fibonacci and price support at 1.01...a break and hold above could send price up to retest near-term major resistance at 1.03 on this timeframe...near-term support levels on this timeframe are 1.00, 0.99, and 0.97.

Whether the lower-than-forecast Trade Balance figure is already priced into the Aussie $ could determine which way price breaks...will see if this was a surprise or not. At the moment, most Commodities in my watchlist are down as I'm writing this...and could point to a lower price for the Aussie $ tomorrow.