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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Fall Cabin

Fall Cabin

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Fri. Oct. 7 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 12 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Nov. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, March 14, 2022

China's Hang Seng Index Plunges Below Major Support...President Xi's Legacy Hangs In The Balance

* See UPDATES below...

Selling has acceletated to an all-time extreme level -- even exceeding that which occurred during the 2008/09 financial crisis -- in China's Hang Seng Futures Index (HK50), which has plunged below a major support level of 20,000 in Sunday night's wild trading, as shown on the following monthly chart (the price is still dropping as I write this post).

This follows my post of March 7, which warned of possible impending weakness in China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) due to diverging extreme weakness in its Financials ETF, GXC.

Failure to recapture and hold above 20,000 could see a swift plunge to 16,000, or lower.

The following article describes 11 major crises that China is facing, which may have contributed to its 4.3%+ drop, so far, from Friday's close.

N.B. The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,531.66 on Monday for a loss of 5.0% from Friday. As well, China's Hang Seng Tech Index lost 11%, the most ever...the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index lost 7.2%, the most since November 2008...and the Golden Dragon China Index lost 13%, for a two-day loss of nearly 30%...see this ZeroHedge report for details.

CONCLUSIONS

  • Perhaps President Xi will rethink his recent no-limits alliance with Russian President Putin -- due to Putin's new-found status as the "world's pariah" and the indiscriminate slaughter of innocent women and children and the war crimes he's committing in his barbaric war on Ukraine (moving ever closer to NATO neighbouring countries, in the process) -- and reconsider whether he, either, wishes China to remain a viable trading partner (and become more stable and trustworthy in the process) and attract foreign investment from the West, or risk losing that privilege altogether.
  • Either the world moves backward into fractured, unstable, waring, and bloody medieval times, dominated by unending depressions, famines and disease...or it moves into the 21st Century with grace and stability...or, it is obliterated by world-wide nuclear war.
  • President Xi has a big part to play in that decision.
  • Either way, he will be held responsible...and his legacy (and, by extension, China's) will reflect that choice, which he'll need to make, sooner rather than later.
 

N.B. The nuclear "Doomsday Clock" is ticking...and is now at "100 seconds to midnight," as noted in the following report...thereby, making President Xi's decisions that much more critical and urgent.


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE March 15...

Selling accelerated in overnight trading in China, as shown on the following monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index (HK50). It closed at 18,415.08 and lost another 5.72%. It was another bloodbath in Chinese major indices, as shown in the following table.

I've shown the chart in an "area" format to illustrate that any gains made since November 2006 have never held, to date...hinting that there has been something systemically wrong in China and its economy since then -- in the months leading up to the 2008/09 financial crisis and global market crash, and ever since -- and signalling that, what was wrong/broken, then, has never been fixed.

SO, if President Xi thinks that, by hitching up China's wagon to Putin's horse will make that situation any better, then I've got a bridge to sell him! 😕


More information on China's markets can be found in the following ZeroHedge article...it's not pretty.

* UPDATE July 18...

More trouble ahead for China...this time, it's their housing market...

* UPDATE July 25...

With investors pulling their money out of China on a scale second in size to the COVID crash, there is a "threat of a further disintegration of their financial system should their housing crash escalate further"...

* UPDATE July 31...

Tensions are heating up between the U.S. and China to dangerous levels...adding to an already-risky foreign investment environment in China...

* UPDATE August 6...

Oh, look...a military distraction is being conducted by China, while its Shanghai Index (SSEC) and Financial ETF (GXC) are poised to plunge below near-term fragile support, as shown on the monthly charts below.

The SSEC has had difficulty holding above 2500 since November 2006. Near-term support sits at 3000, while longer-term major support lies at 2000.

Near-term support for GXC sits at 80.00, while longer-term major support lies at 60.00.

A drop and hold below 3000 for the SSEC and 80.00 for GXC could send China's markets plummeting in short order.



* UPDATE Aug. 8...

The growing global threats posed by China -- militarily, economically, financially, ecologically, environmentally, human rights abuses, global supply chain disruptions/blockades, etc. -- are described and discussed in detail in the following Life, Liberty & Levin video...


Friday, March 11, 2022

HYG: High Yield Corporate Bond ETF Nears A Tipping Point

Depicted on the following monthly chart of the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) are a long-term downtrending channel, several horizontal support and resistance levels, and a large sideways "CHAOS ZONE."

HYG's current push downward is accelerating and is fast approaching a confluence of price and channel median support around 80.00.

It has been trapped, for the most part, in a volatile and whippy "CHAOS ZONE" in between 80.00 and 90.00 since mid-2009.

A drop and hold below 80.00 on accelerating selling (depicted on the Balance of Power indicator and is now at an extreme level) could see it retest 75.00 or 70.00, or plunge even lower, in short order.

For further clues on possible direction, check out the following information.

The article below contains relevant and important details on HYG and the credit markets, and their potential impacts on equity markets...definitely worth a read.


Thursday, March 10, 2022

'Putin's Price Hike' And Inflation/Wages: White House "Spin" Debunked

* See UPDATE below...

The following weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil shows that, from the day that President Biden took office on January 20, 2021, it has gained around 105%, to date...that has resulted in incrementally higher gasoline prices since then.

Russian President Putin declared war and invaded Ukraine on February 23. Since then, oil gained around 16%, as shown on the following daily chart...just a fraction of its overall gain since Biden became President and declared his own war on U.S. oil and gas drilling and production, as well as new pipelines.

You can see similar increases in RBOB Gasoline...104.59% from January 20, 2021 and 15.52% from February 23, as shown on the following weekly and daily charts, respectively.

Since the 'war segment' represents only a small portion of the overall increase, the bulk of the increase has occured since President Biden took office.


Much of the increase in oil and gasoline are a result of global ESG policies, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and will likely worsen over time and lead to a recession, according to this report.

These facts indicate that, after banning Russian oil imports into the U.S. on March 8, President Biden's attempts to blame high gas prices entirely on President Putin are erroneous.

Instead, the majority of these increases have happened since Day One of Biden's presidency.

As an aside, both Oil and Gasoline Futures topped out on March 7...the day before the ban.

Inflation has risen to 7.9% YoY, to date...the highest since 1982.

Joe Biden's repeated claims that wages have kept up to the rate of inflation are also false, as noted below.


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

These are not the first occasions when Joe Biden has blatantly lied to Americans, and I doubt they will be the last. There are numerous examples sprinkled throughout my articles at this link.

* UPDATE March 11...

If you still think that inflation is "transitory," you will be in for a nasty surprise...this article spells out why it's not. 

It looks like things will only get much worse from here. Global political and economic bifurcation has begun.


ZeroHedge excerpt


Tuesday, March 08, 2022

How Accurate Has My 2022 Market Forecast Been, So Far?

Check out my 2022 Market Forecast of January 1, and see how accurate it's been, to date.

As a quick reminder, the following was my conclusion at the time...my position hasn't changed, and I've written extensively about the markets (including "shocking surprises") since then.

P.S. Just when you thought you'd seen all the "shocking surprises" the world could handle this year, you can add one more to the growing list...


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE March 10...

This follow-up report provides clarification on this issue...

Best of luck...it's crazy "out there"...and rumours are flying everywhere! 😏


Is ESG A Fraud?

* See UPDATES below...

These articles regarding ESG caught my eye. ESG is the acronym for environmental social governance

They explain:

  • its purpose, 
  • its founders/regulators/managers and influencers/advocates/minions,
  • its implementation, and
  • its subsequent disturbing and negative impacts to and destabilizations of world economies, global investment and pension funds, foreign and national security issues, natural environments around the world, and societies, in general, which have become exacerbated ten-fold and are now trapped within the tangled web of choking ESG policy.

These revelations have now surfaced and are being exposed as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine...and they're not pretty.

I've written numerous articles on President Biden's policies and agenda, which are tied in with ESG prescriptive policies, ever since he took office on January 20, 2021. You can read them at this link...and they're not pretty, either. This ZeroHedge article is, especially, not pretty.

As an aside, does anyone know exactly what Joe Biden's foreign policy is...apart from appeasement and deference toward dictators, invoking the perception of weakness? I haven't heard him outline one, to date. 

By the way, aggressors eventually tire of weak leaders, as they begin to outlive their usefulness, and cast them aside in their quest for dominance...the alliance involving China, Russia and Iran against the U.S. and the West comes to mind. 

On that front, Biden is:

  • actively negotiating with Iran, using Russia as his intermediary, to re-enter the Iran Nuclear Deal and buy oil from them (which is at variance with ESG objectives), instead of developing America's oil and gas production to become energy-independent once again, as it became under former President Trump...(at what cost to America?),
  • pushing ESG and developing wind and solar products to replace the use of cheaper fossil fuels for energy in the U.S. (which is at variance with ESG objectives)...for that, he'll need to buy many of the materials, components and fabrications from China...(a very expensive prospect for American taxpayers),
  • approaching Venezuela's dictator to buy oil from them (which is at variance with ESG objectives)...(at what cost to America?),
  • and is attempting to speak with Saudi and UAE's leaders to also buy oil from them (which is at variance with ESG objectives)...(at what cost to America?).

None of this makes sense.

No doubt, at some point, Joe Biden will outlive his usefulness to them...weak leaders serve no long-term purpose. How soon that would happen is anyone's guess.

Interestingly enough, I heard a theory that, for many years, the Russians have been covertly behind the push toward global green energy at the expense of fossil fuels, in order to, ultimately, weaken countries' national security systems. If true, that would explain the current chaotic state of affairs and negative impacts of ESG that countries are facing now...and account for the major dilemmas they are trying to deal with because of their adoption of this idealogy at the expense of their own energy independence and national security responsibilities.



ZeroHedge excerpt

President Biden may be "unwittingly supporting the worst humanitarian abuses in the world," but surely someone in his administration must be aware of the disturbing issues described in the following report...how about John Kerry, his so-called US Special Envoy for Climate?

If not, why not? 

If so, why wouldn't the President know?

Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm laughed when asked on November 5, 2021 about Biden's plans to increase oil production and lower the cost of gasoline. She joins VP Kamala Harris in tasteless responses to serious questions in the form of laughter...all such a big joke to them. 😕

So, is ESG a fraud? 

Is your life better now as a result of its implementation...more prosperous...healthier...more stable...happier...more promising...more free from regulations...more secure against domestic crime and foreign wars?

Do some navel gazing, check your wallet and your pulse, then you be the judge...then, let your politicians, Wall Street market makers, and corporate CEOs know your answer.

By the way, U.S. mid-term elections are coming up in November, so Americans may also provide their answer at the ballot box...so, we'll see if a big Republican red wave rolls in to sweep Democrat control out of the House and Senate

In my post of February 9, 2019, I warned against the foolish adoption of the Democrats' newly unveiled "Green New Deal" policies. It looks like my warnings had merit...and that Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was 'persuaded' to run with that agenda (which she'd sarcastically dubbed the "Green Dream," but, which has now become their "Black-Hole Nightmare").

So far, the polls have Biden's approval rating well under water at 37%...and that can get much worse until then...especially since no one believes his and the White House press secretary's "spin" and contradictive statements (lies) on the question of his restriction of domestic oil and gas production, including his cancellation of the permit to finish construction of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada into the U.S. on Day One of his presidency.

BAD NEWS for ESG and its proponents/cronies/influencers.


P.S. If the following information is accurate, Biden's ESG policy could lead to another crisis, unless he adopts a complex strategic energy supply agenda (which includes cyber-attack prevention), but I'm not so sure he's intellectually capable of such planning, even if he were willing.

BAD NEWS for Americans.

MY PRESCRIPTION...A HEALTHY DOSE...

If I'm capable enough of figuring all of this out on my own, surely everyone else is, too. All it takes is a healthy dose of common sense!

* UPDATE March 11...

If you still think that inflation is "transitory," you will be in for a nasty surprise...this article spells out why it's not. 

It looks like things will only get much worse from here. Global political and economic bifurcation has begun.


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE May 21...

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO: "ESG is a scam."

Stuart Kirk, global head of responsible investing, HSBC Asset Management: "some nut job has always told him the end of the world is nearing."

* UPDATE May 23...

A must-read on the dangers of ESG on prosperous capitalist democracies...

* UPDATE June 21...

So, why are they pushing the use of windmills? Makes you wonder...

More political insanity on display...a must-watch video to finally get to the truth...

* UPDATE July 18...

No one should be surprised...what did they expect, anyway? Stupid people create stupid things which create disastrous results! 😕

Stop electing stupid people to political office! 

* UPDATE July 19...

ESG stocks are underperforming and are being dumped...investors may return to a new type of "sin stocks"...


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE July 20...

Pure insanity! 

Welcome to Joe Biden's woke-'n-broke America!


Why is this a good idea and how is this contributing to a stable employment environment?

* UPDATE July 24...

ESG is simply a form of global "social justice injustice" racketeering

Which global elites are profiting from this punitive practice and who is this hurting/punishing?

* UPDATE Aug. 2...

"Transitioning" to so-called reliable "green energy," (while banning fossil fuels at breakneck speed)

  • LEADS TO 
  • power grid instability 
  • WHICH LEADS TO 
  • power grid blackouts 
  • WHICH LEADS TO 
  • rebalancing supply and demand
  • WHICH LEADS TO 
  • inflation
  • WHICH LEADS TO 
  • recession/depression
  • WHICH LEADS TO 
  • heightened risks to national security
  • WHICH LEADS TO
  • a catastophic global energy crisis
  • WHICH LEADS TO
  • economic/social ruin
  • WHICH LEADS TO
  • famine
  • WHICH LEADS TO
  • war
  • WHICH LEADS TO
  • obliteration of all human life on the planet.

Who are the geniuses who thought that "inflicting a little transitory pain" on the middle and lower class segment of the human race during their reckless "energy transition," thereby creating  a monstrous world-wide disaster, would be a great idea? 🤔 

Shameful, outrageously stupid and self-destructive!

* UPDATE Aug. 8...

The growing global threats posed by China -- militarily, economically, financially, ecologically, environmentally (ESG), human rights abuses, global supply chain disruptions/blockades, etc. -- are described and discussed in detail in the following Life, Liberty & Levin video...

* UPDATE Aug. 14...

The 'not-so-hot' findings against solar panels...

It looks like it's only the rich 'early-adopters' segment of the population who may be currently interested in buying an electric car, based on the following hard truths...


* UPDATE Aug. 17...

So, the world was 5-7°C hotter in 1540 than today...and was not subject to the same man-made carbon emissions that scientists claim are responsible for current temperatures (which have risen less than 1°C in the past 100 years according to the NOAA...National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).

So, what gives? 🤔

* UPDATE Aug. 22...

Don't count on a cheap and readily-available supply of EV batteries and solar panels from China any time soon...

* UPDATE Aug. 24...

A number of banks have been banned from doing business with Texas because of their "hostile" and biased practice of financing ESG-related projects, while refusing the same to fossil fuel producers.

We'll see if this action spreads to other states. 🤔

* UPDATE Aug. 27...

BEWARE of the harmful and toxic environmental impacts and depletion of valuable and scarce water sources caused by mining lithium, required for the production of EV and other batteries.! 👀

* UPDATE Sept. 2...

First, California Governor Gavin Newsom mandates that ALL vehicles sold in his state must only be electric by 2035.

Then, a few days later, he warns California residents NOT to charge their electric cars from 4:00 - 9:00 pm because their outdated power grid can't handle it and would cause power blackouts!

What a joke! 🤔