WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris Cafe

Paris Cafe

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Wed. May 25 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. June 1 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 3 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. June 15 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. July 27 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Sept. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Nov. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, March 14, 2022

China's Hang Seng Index Plunges Below Major Support...President Xi's Legacy Hangs In The Balance

* See UPDATE below...

Selling has acceletated to an all-time extreme level -- even exceeding that which occurred during the 2008/09 financial crisis -- in China's Hang Seng Futures Index (HK50), which has plunged below a major support level of 20,000 in Sunday night's wild trading, as shown on the following monthly chart (the price is still dropping as I write this post).

This follows my post of March 7, which warned of possible impending weakness in China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) due to diverging extreme weakness in its Financials ETF, GXC.

Failure to recapture and hold above 20,000 could see a swift plunge to 16,000, or lower.

The following article describes 11 major crises that China is facing, which may have contributed to its 4.3%+ drop, so far, from Friday's close.

N.B. The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,531.66 on Monday for a loss of 5.0% from Friday. As well, China's Hang Seng Tech Index lost 11%, the most ever...the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index lost 7.2%, the most since November 2008...and the Golden Dragon China Index lost 13%, for a two-day loss of nearly 30%...see this ZeroHedge report for details.

CONCLUSIONS

  • Perhaps President Xi will rethink his recent no-limits alliance with Russian President Putin -- due to Putin's new-found status as the "world's pariah" and the indiscriminate slaughter of innocent women and children and the war crimes he's committing in his barbaric war on Ukraine (moving ever closer to NATO neighbouring countries, in the process) -- and reconsider whether he, either, wishes China to remain a viable trading partner (and become more stable and trustworthy in the process) and attract foreign investment from the West, or risk losing that privilege altogether.
  • Either the world moves backward into fractured, unstable, waring, and bloody medieval times, dominated by unending depressions, famines and disease...or it moves into the 21st Century with grace and stability...or, it is obliterated by world-wide nuclear war.
  • President Xi has a big part to play in that decision.
  • Either way, he will be held responsible...and his legacy (and, by extension, China's) will reflect that choice, which he'll need to make, sooner rather than later.
 

N.B. The nuclear "Doomsday Clock" is ticking...and is now at "100 seconds to midnight," as noted in the following report...thereby, making President Xi's decisions that much more critical and urgent.


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE March 15...

Selling accelerated in overnight trading in China, as shown on the following monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index (HK50). It closed at 18,415.08 and lost another 5.72%. It was another bloodbath in Chinese major indices, as shown in the following table.

I've shown the chart in an "area" format to illustrate that any gains made since November 2006 have never held, to date...hinting that there has been something systemically wrong in China and its economy since then -- in the months leading up to the 2008/09 financial crisis and global market crash, and ever since -- and signalling that, what was wrong/broken, then, has never been fixed.

SO, if President Xi thinks that, by hitching up China's wagon to Putin's horse will make that situation any better, then I've got a bridge to sell him! 😕


More information on China's markets can be found in the following ZeroHedge article...it's not pretty.


Friday, March 11, 2022

HYG: High Yield Corporate Bond ETF Nears A Tipping Point

Depicted on the following monthly chart of the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) are a long-term downtrending channel, several horizontal support and resistance levels, and a large sideways "CHAOS ZONE."

HYG's current push downward is accelerating and is fast approaching a confluence of price and channel median support around 80.00.

It has been trapped, for the most part, in a volatile and whippy "CHAOS ZONE" in between 80.00 and 90.00 since mid-2009.

A drop and hold below 80.00 on accelerating selling (depicted on the Balance of Power indicator and is now at an extreme level) could see it retest 75.00 or 70.00, or plunge even lower, in short order.

For further clues on possible direction, check out the following information.

The article below contains relevant and important details on HYG and the credit markets, and their potential impacts on equity markets...definitely worth a read.


Thursday, March 10, 2022

'Putin's Price Hike' And Inflation/Wages: White House "Spin" Debunked

* See UPDATE below...

The following weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil shows that, from the day that President Biden took office on January 20, 2021, it has gained around 105%, to date...that has resulted in incrementally higher gasoline prices since then.

Russian President Putin declared war and invaded Ukraine on February 23. Since then, oil gained around 16%, as shown on the following daily chart...just a fraction of its overall gain since Biden became President and declared his own war on U.S. oil and gas drilling and production, as well as new pipelines.

You can see similar increases in RBOB Gasoline...104.59% from January 20, 2021 and 15.52% from February 23, as shown on the following weekly and daily charts, respectively.

Since the 'war segment' represents only a small portion of the overall increase, the bulk of the increase has occured since President Biden took office.


Much of the increase in oil and gasoline are a result of global ESG policies, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and will likely worsen over time and lead to a recession, according to this report.

These facts indicate that, after banning Russian oil imports into the U.S. on March 8, President Biden's attempts to blame high gas prices entirely on President Putin are erroneous.

Instead, the majority of these increases have happened since Day One of Biden's presidency.

As an aside, both Oil and Gasoline Futures topped out on March 7...the day before the ban.

Inflation has risen to 7.9% YoY, to date...the highest since 1982.

Joe Biden's repeated claims that wages have kept up to the rate of inflation are also false, as noted below.


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

These are not the first occasions when Joe Biden has blatantly lied to Americans, and I doubt they will be the last. There are numerous examples sprinkled throughout my articles at this link.

* UPDATE March 11...

If you still think that inflation is "transitory," you will be in for a nasty surprise...this article spells out why it's not. 

It looks like things will only get much worse from here. Global political and economic bifurcation has begun.


ZeroHedge excerpt


Tuesday, March 08, 2022

How Accurate Has My 2022 Market Forecast Been, So Far?

Check out my 2022 Market Forecast of January 1, and see how accurate it's been, to date.

As a quick reminder, the following was my conclusion at the time...my position hasn't changed, and I've written extensively about the markets (including "shocking surprises") since then.

P.S. Just when you thought you'd seen all the "shocking surprises" the world could handle this year, you can add one more to the growing list...


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE March 10...

This follow-up report provides clarification on this issue...

Best of luck...it's crazy "out there"...and rumours are flying everywhere! 😏


Is ESG A Fraud?

* See UPDATES below...

These articles regarding ESG caught my eye. ESG is the acronym for environmental social governance

They explain:

  • its purpose, 
  • its founders/regulators/managers and influencers/advocates/minions,
  • its implementation, and
  • its subsequent disturbing and negative impacts to and destabilizations of world economies, global investment and pension funds, foreign and national security issues, natural environments around the world, and societies, in general, which have become exacerbated ten-fold and are now trapped within the tangled web of choking ESG policy.

These revelations have now surfaced and are being exposed as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine...and they're not pretty.

I've written numerous articles on President Biden's policies and agenda, which are tied in with ESG prescriptive policies, ever since he took office on January 20, 2021. You can read them at this link...and they're not pretty, either. This ZeroHedge article is, especially, not pretty.

As an aside, does anyone know exactly what Joe Biden's foreign policy is...apart from appeasement and deference toward dictators, invoking the perception of weakness? I haven't heard him outline one, to date. 

By the way, aggressors eventually tire of weak leaders, as they begin to outlive their usefulness, and cast them aside in their quest for dominance...the alliance involving China, Russia and Iran against the U.S. and the West comes to mind. 

On that front, Biden is:

  • actively negotiating with Iran, using Russia as his intermediary, to re-enter the Iran Nuclear Deal and buy oil from them (which is at variance with ESG objectives), instead of developing America's oil and gas production to become energy-independent once again, as it became under former President Trump...(at what cost to America?),
  • pushing ESG and developing wind and solar products to replace the use of cheaper fossil fuels for energy in the U.S. (which is at variance with ESG objectives)...for that, he'll need to buy many of the materials, components and fabrications from China...(a very expensive prospect for American taxpayers),
  • approaching Venezuela's dictator to buy oil from them (which is at variance with ESG objectives)...(at what cost to America?),
  • and is attempting to speak with Saudi and UAE's leaders to also buy oil from them (which is at variance with ESG objectives)...(at what cost to America?).

None of this makes sense.

No doubt, at some point, Joe Biden will outlive his usefulness to them...weak leaders serve no long-term purpose. How soon that would happen is anyone's guess.

Interestingly enough, I heard a theory that, for many years, the Russians have been covertly behind the push toward global green energy at the expense of fossil fuels, in order to, ultimately, weaken countries' national security systems. If true, that would explain the current chaotic state of affairs and negative impacts of ESG that countries are facing now...and account for the major dilemmas they are trying to deal with because of their adoption of this idealogy at the expense of their own energy independence and national security responsibilities.



ZeroHedge excerpt

President Biden may be "unwittingly supporting the worst humanitarian abuses in the world," but surely someone in his administration must be aware of the disturbing issues described in the following report...how about John Kerry, his so-called US Special Envoy for Climate?

If not, why not? 

If so, why wouldn't the President know?

Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm laughed when asked on November 5, 2021 about Biden's plans to increase oil production and lower the cost of gasoline. She joins VP Kamala Harris in tasteless responses to serious questions in the form of laughter...all such a big joke to them. 😕

So, is ESG a fraud? 

Is your life better now as a result of its implementation...more prosperous...healthier...more stable...happier...more promising...more free from regulations...more secure against domestic crime and foreign wars?

Do some navel gazing, check your wallet and your pulse, then you be the judge...then, let your politicians, Wall Street market makers, and corporate CEOs know your answer.

By the way, U.S. mid-term elections are coming up in November, so Americans may also provide their answer at the ballot box...so, we'll see if a big Republican red wave rolls in to sweep Democrat control out of the House and Senate

In my post of February 9, 2019, I warned against the foolish adoption of the Democrats' newly unveiled "Green New Deal" policies. It looks like my warnings had merit...and that Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was 'persuaded' to run with that agenda (which she'd sarcastically dubbed the "Green Dream," but, which has now become their "Black-Hole Nightmare").

So far, the polls have Biden's approval rating well under water at 37%...and that can get much worse until then...especially since no one believes his and the White House press secretary's "spin" and contradictive statements (lies) on the question of his restriction of domestic oil and gas production, including his cancellation of the permit to finish construction of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada into the U.S. on Day One of his presidency.

BAD NEWS for ESG and its proponents/cronies/influencers.


P.S. If the following information is accurate, Biden's ESG policy could lead to another crisis, unless he adopts a complex strategic energy supply agenda (which includes cyber-attack prevention), but I'm not so sure he's intellectually capable of such planning, even if he were willing.

BAD NEWS for Americans.

MY PRESCRIPTION...A HEALTHY DOSE...

If I'm capable enough of figuring all of this out on my own, surely everyone else is, too. All it takes is a healthy dose of common sense!

* UPDATE March 11...

If you still think that inflation is "transitory," you will be in for a nasty surprise...this article spells out why it's not. 

It looks like things will only get much worse from here. Global political and economic bifurcation has begun.


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE May 21...

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO: "ESG is a scam."

Stuart Kirk, global head of responsible investing, HSBC Asset Management: "some nut job has always told him the end of the world is nearing."

* UPDATE May 23...

A must-read on the dangers of ESG on prosperous capitalist democracies...


Monday, March 07, 2022

The Correlation Among Consumer Staples, Commodities And Agriculture Sectors

Following the bottoming of the 2008/09 U.S. financial crisis in March of 2009, the Consumer Staples ETF, XLP, began a years-long rally, along with the Commodities and Agricultural ETFs, DBC and DBA, respectively, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.

While XLP has been on a slow, steady climb ever since, DBC and DBA began to diverge in a volatile and whippy descent in early 2011 and finally bottomed around late Q1 to early Q2 of 2020...then, reversed shortly after the WHO declared the COVID-19 virus a pandemic in March 2020).

DBC and DBA have been in an ever-steepening rally, ever since...likely accelerated most recently by Russia's declaration of war against and invasion of Ukraine.

As long as uncertainty exists around this war, as well as the after-effects of COVID, which have contributed to a spike in inflation, labour shortages, and supply-chain problems, I'd posit that all three ETFs will continue to rise.

However, a divergence in one or more may signal, either a pause and consolidation in these sectors for a period of time, or a reversal...so keep an eye on them for directional clues and trend strength, along with the information contained in my post of February 27 pertaining to U.S. Major Sectors and the SPX.


WORLD MARKETS March 7, 2022: A Sea Of Red & Bear Markets Everywhere

Presented without comment...



Conversely, look what's in the green in the futures markets, today...

ZeroHedge's summary of today's market action is worth a read...(HINT: bear markets everywhere)...


Is Weakness In China's Financials ETF A Harbinger for the Shanghai Index?

China's Financials ETF, GXC, has plunged dramatically since January of 2021, in contrast to China's Shanghai Index, SSEC, which is teetering on the brink of a downdraft, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.

Extreme volatility began in GXC in March of 2020, relative to the SSEC, when the WHO declared COVID-19 a "pandemic" (March 11)...following its declaration of the virus as a "public health emergency of international concern" on January 30.

This dramatic and volatile trend reversal in China's financial sector may signal forthcoming weakness and produce problems, in the near term, and, possibly in the long run, for its equity sector, namely the Shanghai Index.

By the way, my post of September 15, 2021 described financial weakness in GXC pertaining to China's second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group (and its major debt obligations and defaults)...thereby, possibly, triggering a negative event in China's Shanghai Index, and, even, other world markets.

Combine those issues with 

and you have a world-wide financial catastrophe waiting to happen.

Keep an eye on this comparison for clues on a weakening SSEC, as well as the above global issues.

P.S. More information and updates on Chinese markets can be found here.


Major Trend Divergences On DAX and EUFN

Do you notice something odd about the long-term trends of Germany's DAX with EUFN, Europe's MSCI Financials ETF?

While the DAX has been in a long-term uptrend, the EUFN has been in a volatile and whippy general downtrend, as highlighted by their respective channels depicted on the following monthly comparison chart below.

Whether that variance can continue in the coming weeks is debatable and whether that is a warning of further weakness for the DAX and other European indices remains to be seen...but worth tracking, as is the SPX relative to the DAX, about which I wrote in my post of March 4.

Even the EUR/USD is signalling further weakness...perhaps taking the EURO to parity, or lower...especially if the ECB does not raise interest rates at their upcoming meeting on March 10 this week.