WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Fall

Fall

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Thurs. Nov. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. Nov. 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Tues. Nov. 17 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Nov. 25 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Dec. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Saturday, July 18, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values for Week of July 20

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the week of July 20 are based on the high/low/close for the July 13 weekly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each weekly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the weekly chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days and weeks.

On Friday, it closed above the PP for the July 20 week and only remains below the PPs of the weeks of December 23 to February 17...which represents relatively minor resistance, considering that it fought through all of 2018, most of 2019, and most of the 2020 overhead resistance since the March low.

R1 sits at 3265.94 and S1 at 3155.78, which represent near-term resistance and support levels or targets. 

If the SPX holds above this week's PP of 3196.99, there's a good chance it will reach R1, or higher; otherwise, a drop and hold below it could see it hit S1, or lower.


Volatility has dropped off the past couple of weeks, as the SPX:VIX ratio broke above the 100 level, once more, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

Its target is the 200-day moving average around the 150-155 level, which converges with the next level of major price resistance.

The RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators are all bullish, so look for that to continue in order to confirm any further sustainable rally on both the SPX:VIX ratio and the SPX

Otherwise, any hesitation or reversal on these would not bode well for SPX buyers...particularly if the SPX drops and holds below the PP at 3196.99, and, especially, if the Balance of Power flips from buyers to sellers on the weekly timeframe (falls and remains below zero).


China's Predatory Tactics Against US Companies

U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr spoke on July 16 at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum and blasted China's predatory tactics against US companies. Tech companies and Hollywood did not escape criticism.

transcript of the AG's prepared remarks can be read at this link.


China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) dropped below 3300 last week after briefly piercing it, as shown on the following weekly chart.

The sellers have regained control of the Balance of Power on this timeframe.

If the SSEC fails to reclaim and hold above 3300, and if buyers fail to return convincingly, it could drop to around 2800, or so, inasmuch as 3300 seems to be the Bull/Bear line-in-the sand at the moment.


Sunday, July 05, 2020

SPX: Alligator's Jaw Shuts...Higher Prices Ahead?

Further to my post of June 29, the jaw of the William's Alligator has shut and two of the three moving averages (each offset into the future) have re-crossed and turned up, as shown on the following SPX daily chart.

As well, the Awesome Oscillator has flipped above the zero level.

Both of these are hinting that further buying may be in store...I'd need to see the third moving average turn up to confirm potential strength.

However, the Balance of Power is still with the sellers, albeit somewhat tepid, so, unless we see this flip to the buyers on this timeframe, we may be in for a bit more weakness before we see sustained buying resume.

Near-term support sits around 3070. If that's crossed, look for price to, potentially, re-test 3000, or lower.


Price on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart has broken back above 100 and the 50-day moving average, once again.

The RSI has crossed above the 50 level, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the PMO is poised to cross to the upside.

We may see serious buyers step in on the SPX if:
  • price can remain above 3070
  • the AO remains above zero
  • the BOP flips from sellers to buyers
  • the RSI can hold above 50 on the SPX:VIX ratio
  • the MACD can hold its bullish crossover on the SPX:VIX ratio
  • the PMO forms a bullish crossover on the SPX:VIX ratio

Otherwise, we may see some minor selling on the SPX down to the 3000 level, or even a stronger effort to push it much lower toward 2800.


If U.S. Mobs Were Russians Attacking America...

If these U.S. mobs were Russians who were physically attacking American statues, memorials, churches, religious symbols, cities, private property, police, citizens, shop owners, etc., on America's soil, then the Americans in these mobs, as well as Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Adam Schiff, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, and the media would be outraged and asking why the President isn't defending them!

You can't reason with out-of-control mobs, Democrats, and Dem-controlled media!

Twitter link

So, once you're fed up with trying to reason with or please them, there is one final message you can quote that everyone seems to understand...


Then, their mess stays dumped squarely in their laps...they own it! 😏