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* Fri. Aug. 27 @ 5:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index Data m/m
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*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
1314 is the near-term resistance level to overcome before running into major resistance at 1550, in my opinion, (based on my analysis of price, Fibonacci, channel, and volume profile data), as shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
The following Year-To-Date percentage gained/lost graphs of World Markets are presented without individual comment. A general observation is that money has begun to flow into non-U.S. markets. I'd also add that fund managers will likely be looking to top up their accounts for January's month-end...as such, we may not see new trends emerge until February.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Failure to begin stabilizing at this level and reclaim the major resistance level between 1.19 and 1.2125 (seen pre- and post-2007/08 financial crisis) could send the Euro plunging down to the 2000 lows of 0.8227. I can't imgine that's what Mr. Draghi has in mind with his ECB QE policy announcment earlier today...although stranger things have happened.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Volatility in currencies has certainly been the norm, of late.
Sunday, January 18, 2015
" It may be that we will see larger volatility ensue in currencies, before they play out to any great extent (or near-term trends become very clear) in world indices."
The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators on the following Daily ratio chart below of the SPX vs Swiss Franc ($SPX:$XSF) were forecasting a weakening of the SPX compared to the XSF from last November.
Who knew we'd see a drop of 18.75% (of the Swiss Franc) in one day (last Thursday)! A drop and hold below its (the SPX:XSF ratio) current major support level of 17 (formed from early-to mid-2014) could roil equity markets globally.
The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators on the following Daily ratio chart below of the SPX vs Euro ($SPX:$XEU) are also forecasting a weakening of the SPX compared to the XEU from last November.
Perhaps we'll see a repeat of the above price action when the ECB's President Draghi speaks on January 22nd...if so, price could plunge to somewhere between 13.5 and 14.0 at major support...or lower...one to watch in the near term, along with world markets!
Friday, January 16, 2015
Note the downward-sloping highs on the second chart from last July...indicating that, longer term, the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA has been waning and making successive lower highs, and warning of a weakening market, in general.
Correlated with a break and hold below those would be a break and hold below, firstly, 2000 on the SPX, then, 1966 (200 MA)...we could, then, very well see a re-test of 1850 or 1800 (or lower) in short order.
No wonder we've seen some very volatile overnight and intraday swings since last July. I expect to see that volatility continue until we see a clear break and hold above 2100 on the SPX, along with a bullish cross-over (and hold) of the 50 MA above the 200 MA on the second chart (above).
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Failure to reclaim and hold above what is now major resistance at 2.5517 and a drop and hold below 2.385 could see Copper plunging to 2008 lows of 1.255.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
|S&P 500 Index|
|Canada's TSX Index|
|China's Shanghai Index|
|U.K.'S FTSE 100 Index|
|Germany's DAX Index|
|France's CAC Index|
Friday, January 09, 2015
Monday, January 05, 2015
A hold below the 50 MA (a bearish Death Cross formed awhile ago and was retested twice) could see price drop to retest the double bottom around 13,650, or lower. Watch for a bearish crossover to form on the MACD and for a drop and hold below the zero level to confirm such a scenario.
Also, as I mentioned in my post of January 2nd, a drop and hold below $50.00 on WTIC Oil could very create such a down-draft in the TSX Index...and, possibly, all other World markets.
END-OF-DAY UPDATE: Here's a 1-year Daily chart of the TSX Index as it closed today. Note the bearish RSI crossover below the 50 level, along with a bearish crossover of Stochastics...hinting of further weakness to come.
The following 3-year Daily ratio chart of the SPX vs the TSX shows the under performance of the SPX from its peak on December 10th. Price is now sitting on a confluence of major support provided by an uptrend (which began on September 16th) and rising 50 MA. All three indicators (RSI, MACD and Stochastics) are suggesting a further weakening of the SPX...one to watch, along with the TSX and Oil, as a break below this major support level could prompt a major sell-off in U.S. equities.
Sunday, January 04, 2015
Friday, January 02, 2015
My World Market Wrap-Up for 2013 can be found here.
The following charts and graphs show the trends and gains and losses made in a number of world markets for 2014. They will be shown without individual comment, initially, as you can see at a glance where major support and resistance are (50 MA in both cases), and where the outliers are (which ones made the most gains or losses for the year).