WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Late Summer

Late Summer

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Mon. Oct. 8 ~ Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday
* Thurs. Oct. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Oct. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Nov. 6 ~ U.S. Midterm Elections
* Thurs. Nov. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Saturday, September 08, 2018

Mainstream Media: A Treasure-Trove of Trolls

There are a number of definitions of an internet troll...a couple of them are as follows...



Trolls are anonymous. It seems to me that any news article that contains the use of anonymous sources would be akin to using trolls for information...or, rather, dis-information.

The most egregious example is this New York Times op-ed, which is actually authored by an anonymous source...hence, a troll. One of the paragraphs in this article (excerpt below) is especially troubling in that it hints of a nefarious outcome for President Trump, or, even, poses a threat of some kind.



This letter to the editor of the New York Times by Kevin McCarthy, Congressional House Majority Leader, says, in part, that, "The anonymous official's essay is shocking. He should be exposed and fired." "Whatever else the anonymous essay accomplishes, its ultimate effect will be to erode the legitimate authority of the president, in this and subsequent administrations."

The problem with trolls is that they cannot be identified, their credentials and information challenged, and, thus, be held fully accountable for their accusations. This will continue until and unless trolls step forward and properly identify themselves. In the meantime, their words are simply empty, inflammatory, confusing, meaningless, and without validity. They deserve to be ignored.

For readers to decide what is truth or fiction in order to formulate an appropriate response and action, they should be given provable, reliable facts, not innuendos, and not have the truth hidden from them, as seems to be the case with the long-standing quest to determine the legal basis for Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein's special counsel investigation, as described in former Chief Assistant U.S. Attorney, Andrew McCarthy's article.

Sunday, September 02, 2018

The Truth About U.S. & Canadian Dairy Farmers

Further to my articles herehere and here regarding trade and NAFTA, I came across this interesting Toronto Star article, which describes the truth about the oversupply of milk production in the United States.

Source: The Toronto Star


Canada already controls its Canadian milk production to ensure that its producers can sustain a living, while adequately satisfying its domestic demand. It's no fault of Canada that the U.S. has not done the same with respect to its domestic production and consumption.

It's notable that President Trump would rather try to bully Canadians into buying more than they need by forcing U.S. dairy products on them, rather than addressing his own domestic oversupply issues, or look for other export markets. As I mentioned previously, Canada has a population of only 36.95 million versus 327,867,715 (on June 7, 2018) in the U.S., so Canadians can consume only so much milk, compared with Americans...they don't need to be force-fed more! And, they certainly don't need to be ordered to consume American products or be threatened with auto tariffs if they don't comply with his bullying whims.

So, Mr. Trump, don't blame Canada for your country's own mismanagement issues! It appears as though some Americans are already studying a proposal for a "Sustainable Milk Inventory System Act," which has been summarized as a "U.S. version of the Canadian system with improvements," as noted in the following excerpt from the above article. Perhaps you could learn a thing or two from your own farmers, who are actively seeking solutions to their problems...in spite of your own inaction on this issue and reversion to trade bluster, instead, and punitive threats to dump and flood your country's excess dairy into Canada, while, at the same time, complaining that China is dumping and flooding its excess steel into world markets...the pot calling the kettle black!


Friday, August 31, 2018

Trump's Trade Tactics: Scare & Insult Canada Into Submission?

From the excerpt below, as reported today by The Toronto Star, it appears that President Trump is bargaining with Canada in bad faith and using scare tactics in the process (the red highlights and frames are mine). You can read their article in its entirety here.




Why should Canadians ever trust him, particularly as he's already tried to bully Canada with his distorted trade facts, as I've discussed at length here? And, he seems to have conveniently forgotten that Canada bailed out American GM and Chrysler's operations in Canada after the U.S. 2008/09 financial crisis...for a loss of CAN$3.7 billion to the Canadian taxpayer...so, to threaten to punish its auto sector in such a petulant manner is unbelievable!

Are there no adults running the U.S. government? It appears that the cat's got their tongues.


And, here's your confirmation of these "off the record" remarks, by Mr. Trump, himself...


Stay tuned for this upcoming Canadian press conference (without the U.S.)...



Notwithstanding Ms. Freeland's press conference (which just concluded) where she re-iterated that "Canada won't sign a trade deal unless it benefits Canadians" and where she announced that trade talks will resume next Wednesday, it doesn't look positive for Canada...if Trump won't compromise, why would Canada agree to his terms in the future, if it doesn't agree now? 

It looks like a tri-lateral trade deal is dead in the water to replace NAFTA. One brave Senator was willing to support U.S. allies...we'll see if the U.S. Congress disagrees with him and approves only a bi-lateral deal between the U.S. and Mexico that doesn't include Canada.


If Congress does approve a deal that excludes Canada, then Canada can look forward to the escalation of a trade war, inasmuch as it appears that the President is out to punish Canadians and cripple Canada's economy with his personal vendetta and agenda (as he already promised to do on June 12 and as described here)...one that is not based on actual and sound economic facts...and one that builds on his already punitive and unjustified steel and aluminum tariffs.

(Below is an excerpt from that article...click here to read it in full)

Finally, trust me, Mr. Trump, when I tell you that no Canadian believes that you love Canada...so, cut the crap...and, when you add a 'but' in a sentence, it completely negates the preceding phrase.


Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Nine-Year U.S. Bull Market Money Flow

The first three of the following graphs depict percentages gained for the Major U.S. Indices during three time periods, namely:
  • since March 6, 2009 (the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis), 
  • since November 8, 2016 (the Presidential election), and 
  • year-to-date.

Generally, traders/investors have favoured technology, small-cap, and transportation indices over the large-cap and utilities indices...indicating a stronger preference for risk over value, which continues to today.




The next three graphs depict percentages gained for the nine U.S. Major Sectors:
  • since March 6, 2009 (the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis), 
  • since November 8, 2016 (the Presidential election), and 
  • year-to-date.

Until this year, traders/investors have favoured consumer cyclicals, technology, industrials, health care, and financials. However, this year, industrials and financials have fallen out of favour, leaving only a risk-on environment in consumer cyclicals, technology, and health care, while the remaining sectors are roughly flat or under water, in comparison...indicating a reduced appetite for risk.

As I mentioned in my post of August 15, U.S. and world financial markets may hold the key as to whether or not this bull market continues to advance for the remainder of the year. Keep an eye on those, along with the USD and other factors mentioned in that article for confirmation, or not, of such a scenario. 

As well, watch for any reallocation of money from consumer cyclicals, technology, small caps, and transportation, into large caps, utilities, consumer staples, materials, and energy, if markets shift from a riskier to a more defensive posture.




Friday, August 17, 2018

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

A World Financial Battle Approaches

The first three ratio charts show:
  1. the U.S. Financial ETF (XLF) compared with the SPX,
  2. the European Financial ETF (EUFN) compared with the STOX50, and
  3. the Chinese Financial ETF (GXC) compared with the SSEC.
Each one's Financial ETF is weaker than its country's major index, and in the case of the EUFN and GXC ratios, are sitting at a major support level, while the XLF ratio is approaching major support.




The fourth ratio chart shows that the Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) is stronger than its counterpart Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and is approaching a major resistance level. (Note that EMB holds USD-denominated rather than local-currency debt, and eliminates direct currency risk for U.S. investors, but raises the possibility that a strengthening dollar or weakening local currency could make the debt harder to service, increasing credit risk.)


The next chart of the USD shows price approaching its next major resistance level at 97.50.


The next ratio chart shows the strengthening of the USD compared to EMB since the end of January. Price has a way to go before it hits its next major resistance level.


The last three ratio charts compare price of the STOX50, SSEC, and EEM to the SPX. They are all much weaker than the SPX, the STOX50 and EEM ratios are sitting on major support, and the SSEC ratio is trading below major support.




The last graph shows the percentages lost in the SPX, XLF, STOX50, EUFN, SSEC, GXC, EEM and EMB since they peaked around the end of January this year, as well as the gains made, conversely, in the USD.


Unless all of the three Financial ETFs firm up and attract new buyers soon, we'll see weakness continue, and possibly accelerate, in European, Chinese and Emerging Markets, potentially dragging U.S. equities down, as well. Keep a close eye on the USD as a potential flight-to-safety trade in such an event.

With respect to the U.S. market, I'd also refer you to my comments outlined during the past month in my posts here, here, here and here, which describe other factors I'm watching.