WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Polar Bears

Polar Bears

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Jan. 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Jan. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Jan. 15 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Jan. 27 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Feb. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Feb. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, January 03, 2021

2020 Market Wrap-Up and 2021 Market Forecast: A Dimmer Sun?

Perhaps the most valuable commodity this year will be Vitamin D, thanks to Bill Gates' proposal to "dim the sun" and his support for large-scale, endless lockdowns. 😏

My Annual 2020 Market Wrap-Up and 2021 Market Forecast is extremely short this year. We live in an upside-down world, propped up by central banks and government stimulus...likely to continue this year, thanks to the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic.


The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained a total of 1,568.34 points from the low to the high of 2020, and the Balance of Power (BOP) is still firmly in the hands of Buyers, as shown on the following monthly chart

However, the BOP for December is a fraction below November's, so the buying was slightly more subdued last month and may portend a slower pace in the coming months.

The next major resistance is represented by the 1.382% External Fibonacci level at 3850.57. Major support lies below at the "Big Round Number" of 3600.

Barring another retest of 3600, as we saw during three weeks of November, I'd expect the buying to continue up to 3850.57, or higher, in the coming weeks/months.

However, stocks may be getting overvalued, as shown on the following ZeroHedge chart. Perhaps 2021 may usher in more stock splits...or a 10-20% correction.

We'll see what happens...but, keep an eye on the rate of buying/selling, as represented by the BOP indicator.


P.S.

By the way, the SPX "iceberg" is still afloat.


Friday, January 01, 2021

Happy New Year 2021!

Here's hoping 2021 ushers in better days ahead for everyone. Best wishes for good health, prosperity and good friends. 😊


Sunday, December 27, 2020

President Trump Signs COVID-19/Omnibus Bill With Proviso That Congress Make Amendments

At least the President is fighting for the average American.

We'll see if Congress is, as well, and follows through on these amendments...



At the time of posting this article, there has been muted reaction to this news in the US Futures markets. We'll see how the markets open on Monday.


Monday, December 21, 2020

What's In Store For Bitcoin In 2021?

It seems Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is fond of parabolic spikes...spike #2 is well underway from the March low, as price is approaching the first external Fibonacci level (1.382%) at 26259.60 (upside target and first major resistance level), as shown on the following monthly chart.

The Balance of Power still rests with buyers, but December's level is currently below that of November's, in spite of a 4,413 higher price.

Keep an eye on the BOP level at the December close. If it remains below that of November's close, we could see a retracement early in 2021...potentially down to around 20,000, or lower, particularly if price hits 1.382% by year end.


December 21, 2020: The "Great Conjunction" of Jupiter & Saturn

Watch the Lowell Observatory (Flagstaff, Arizona) live streaming celestial event of the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn at 5:00 pm MST on December 21 (which happens to coincide with the 2020 winter solstice). These two planets will appear closer than they ever have been since March 4, 1226, according to Rice University.



Tuesday, November 24, 2020

'Trumpenomics' Shatters Glass Ceiling: Dow 30 Hits 30,000

The success of President Trump's First-Term economic policies and programs, including Operation Warp Speed, were reflected in US markets today. The Dow 30 Index smashed through 30,000, setting an all-time record high! 

The Balance of Power lies with buyers...in fact, it also hit a record high today. 

With no overhead resistance, buyers are free to continue this bull run.




Friday, November 13, 2020

From This Week's "Smile File"...Nancy Pelosi's Friday the 13th

😏 I wonder how the rest of her day will go?

Link to tweet & video

Whoops...😮

Link to tweet & video

Link to tweet


S&P 500 Index At A Major Inflection Point

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has breached, once again, the outermost deviation band of the Regression Channel (+5 standard deviation), which has its beginnings at the March 2009 low, as shown on the following monthly chart. So far, it hasn't been able to sustain a move higher.

It's either going to enter a new hyper-bullish phase to, potentially, spike sharply to parabolic heights, or pull back to somewhere around, either a confluence of the 20 MA with the +2 deviation level around 3100ish, or to a confluence of the 50 MA with the Regression Channel median around 2800ish.

Either way, the move could be swift.

In my post of November 8, I mentioned that buyers were in control of the MSCI World Market Index, based on a monthly timeframe. Its price was 2470.05 (Friday November 6).

The upside target I identified was around 2600. The next day it hit a high of 2546.16 before pulling back to close at 2502.06, as shown on the following daily chart. It's been trying to retest that high for the past three days, without success. The Balance of Power has flipped from buyers to sellers on this short-term timeframe

This may be a warning of weakening interest and a possible pullback in the SPX, as well as other global indices. Keep an eye on the MSCI World Market Index for clues in the short term.


Monday, November 09, 2020

"ZOOM" In..."ZOOM" Out!

* See UPDATE below...

Good news was announced today by Pfizer for a possible COVID-19 vaccine...more data will be assembled, then submitted to the FDA for approval in December. 

The research, development, and distribution of vaccines by Pfizer and other companies was established by the Trump administration's COVID-19 Task Force and fast-tracked under their 'Operation Warp Speed' program.

Link to tweet/article

Link to tweet/article


Link to tweet/article


Link to both of Frank's tweets & threads


Bad news for Zoom (ZM).

I'm not surprised it's plunged after its 735% parabolic rise in just 10 months this year! Remember what happened to Bitcoin?

We'll see what happens by the end of the year.


Bitcoin refresher...


* UPDATE December 30...

This is not good news for ZOOM...




After three failed attempts by buyers to push and hold ZOOM above 300, it looks like they've fled the scene. ZOOM has lost nearly 50% of its value from its October highs.

A drop and hold below 300 could seal its fate...while a push and hold above 500 could attract serious buyers, once a for all.

We'll see what 2021 brings.