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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

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...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Monday, January 14, 2019

Star-Studded FAANGs

I last wrote about the FAANGs and FNGU and what I was monitoring in my post of November 4, 2018.

2018 was the year we saw the FAANGs form bearish shooting stars. Each candle on the following charts of FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and GOOG represents a period of one year (absent on these charts is 2019's candle, as I've left it off to illustrate last year's weakness and volatility compared with prior years in these stocks).

You can see, at a glance, that FB is the weakest of the five, as it has erased almost all of its 2017 gains, as well as its gains last year.






Each candle on the following chart of FNGU represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.

FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies...the index is highly concentrated and equally weighted. It is comprised of the 5 FAANG stocks + 5 tech stocks, namely, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA and TWTR.

As of the end of last year, it had erased all of its gains since it began trading in January 2018, and more.


Each candle on the following charts of BABABIDUNVDATSLA and TWTR represents a period of one year. Also absent on these charts is 2019's candle.

None of these stocks had a good year in 2018, either. In fact, BIDU has lost all of its gains made since 2014 and has taken a bite out of gains made in 2013, and TWTR closed out the year still lower than its IPO price in 2013.






Each candle on the following charts of the FAANGs represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.

We've seen the FAANGs lead the equity markets higher prior to Q4 of 2018 (and Q3 in the case of FB and NFLX), then lead them lower during Q4.






There's been some short covering in all 10 stocks, so far, in 2019 as shown on the following 1-Year daily charts (including FNGU and the SPX).

However, it remains to be seen whether prolonged and serious buying will continue in these stocks so as to propel them to reclaim a leadership role, once again...or whether this is just a short-term dead-cat bounce. I'd keep a close watch on FB, AAPL and GOOG, in particular, as further weakness could have a knock-on effect on some (or all) of these, as well as equities, in general.

We'll also see how much longer TWTR can survive, whether BIDU will ever make a comeback...and, whether FNGU will continue to trade much longer if general weakness persists in its 10 stocks.


Tuesday, January 01, 2019

China's Shanghai Index: Poised For A Plunge

Bearish Balance of Power may not shift on the Shanghai Index until (and if) 2000 is reached, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Otherwise, watch for a break and hold above 2500, together with a reversal, break and hold of the BOP indicator above the zero level to indicate a transference of power to bulls on this longer term timeframe.


2018 Market Wrap-Up: Extreme Volatility

The following charts depict 2018 market action in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), as well as the MSCI World Index. One word describes 2018 markets...volatile.

Volatility was extreme, as uncertainty gripped, not only U.S. markets, but markets world-wide, as well, as I had posited in my 2018 Market Forecast at the end of 2017. I believe it will continue to apply in 2019, and we'll see a world market slowdown, as I described in my 2019 Market Forecast.

Key levels that I'm watching on the SPX are 2600, 2400, 2250 and 2000, as illustrated in my post of December 27.

Market gauges that I'm monitoring in the weeks/months ahead are outlined in the above-mentioned posts, as the charts below are simply presented without comment (on the SPX) to depict this volatile price action.

Happy New Year and best of luck in 2019!

SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one year.


SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one quarter.


SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one month.


SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one year.


SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one quarter.

 
SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one month.


MSCI World Index -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one week.

N.B. 1800 is a critical level, as a break and hold below will drag U.S. equities down, as well. It was briefly pierced during the last week of December and may be retested before, either resuming its plunge, or reversing course.

A tepid reversal will not produce lasting confidence or commitment in world markets, nor sustain a meaningful longer-term rally. In this regard, I've shown the input value as "one" on the three technical indicators (MOM, ROC and ATR) to illustrate and gauge the strength and velocity of either direction.


Happy New Year 2019


Thank you to everyone who visited my Blog in 2018 and to those who sent me thoughtful and encouraging emails...I really appreciated them. 😊

Thank you to the hosts of the following websites who post my articles.  If you haven't had a chance to view their sites, please do so...each one has many unique features, articles and tools to enhance your trading experience!



A reminder that my Market Forecast for 2019 can be found here👀

May everyone be blessed with good health, wealth, peace and happiness in 2019...Happy New Year!


Thursday, December 27, 2018

Post-Christmas Market Plunge Cash-In

It appears that some short-sellers have cashed in the past couple of days and have stalled the plunge in the SPX, as shown on the following weekly chart.

As at 2:00 pm ET today (December 27), price is consolidating intraday just above near-term support of 2400. Major resistance sits at 2600 (just below the weekly Ichimoku Cloud formation), while the next level of support sits at 2250, followed by major support at 2000.

Whether that cash will be deployed in any sustained and meaningful buying any time soon, or whether it's sitting ready for shorting again, remains to be seen. Conditions are very unstable, as depicted on the three technical indicators (each with an input value of "one" and in histogram format to illustrate that volatility and its strength).


Price on the SPX:VIX ratio is still below 80.00, as shown on the following daily ratio chart. As long as it remains below 100, we're going to see continued large, volatile daily gyrations in the SPX. A drop and hold below 60.00 would likely accompany a swift price-drop in the SPX to 2250 or 2000.

 

Monday, December 24, 2018

SPX Teeters On The Edge Of A Bear Market

The SPX gained 801.35 points from its November 8, 2016 close of 2139.56 (on the eve of the U.S. elections) to its all-time high of 2940.91 on September 21, 2018.

Since September 21, the SPX closed Monday (Christmas Eve) 589.81 points lower at 2351.10...a loss of 73.6% of those Nov/16 to Sept/18 points gained...and is now up by only 9.89% since November 8, 2016, as shown on the following percentage-gained graph.


The SPX is teetering on the edge of a bear market, as it is now -19.78% from its September high this year.

If we get a couple more days like Monday's, the SPX could easily reach its first support level of 2250 before the end of the year, as shown on the following monthly chart, and as I described in my post of December 22. Major support sits lower at 2000.

U.S. equity market gains made since Nov/16 are already being cannibalized by Washington gridlock and erratic Trump administration decisions and policies, as I warned in last month's post of November 9. Whether that is about to abate anytime soon is anyone's guess!


Mr. President, Wall Street's 2018

Mr. President, what Wall Street's vote of "non-confidence" looks like, so far, this year, as White House chaos, instability and political gridlock run rampant in Washington...

SPX: Each candle represents a period of one year

SPX:VIX Ratio: Each candle represents a period of one year


Merry Christmas, Mr. President!


Sunday, December 23, 2018

US Real Estate Sector Nosedive

Further to my post of December 17, the percentage of S&P Real Estate stocks above their 200-day moving average has dropped below 50% to 37.5% (as of Friday's close), as shown on the following graphic. At 50% on that date, it was the "last man standing," apart from Utilities.


The monthly action of this percentage relative to its 200 MA is illustrated in chart form, as follows. While the SPX was making a new all-time high in September, the real estate stocks were on their way down.


The actual Real Estate Sector ($SSRE) is depicted on the following monthly chart. Price is approaching near-term support at 190.00. A drop and hold below that could see it drop to major support at 180.00, or lower.


The following monthly chart of the Real Estate ETF (IYR) shows that the first Fibonacci retracement support level sits at 70.50. A drop and hold below that could see it reach its next Fib level at 61.00.

Both the IYR and $SSRE are range-bound with a very large range for December. Further weakness in these would, no doubt, drag the S&P 500 Index (SPX) further down. The SPX gauges that I'm monitoring in the short term are described in my post of December 22. If we see the SPX stabilize or bounce, it will be important to see whether the real estate sector does, as well.