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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Fall

Fall

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Thurs. Nov. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. Nov. 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Tues. Nov. 17 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Nov. 25 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Dec. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Monday, October 05, 2020

U.S. Markets In One Word: Indecision

And, unlikely to resolve before the November 3rd Presidential election. Until then, 3350 is a key support/resistance level to monitor. Chaos and higher volatility lie below that price within the jaws of the "alligator."

SPX weekly

Sunday, August 16, 2020

From This Week's "Smile File"...Words Matter

Can you read this?...

If you cna raed tihs, you hvae a sgtrane mnid too. I cdnuol't blveiee taht I cluod aulactly uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rseheearcr at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are. The olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! If you can raed tihs, SHARE IT!


Wednesday, August 12, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values for August 2020

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of August are based on the high/low/close of the July monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.

The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

The July candle closed on Friday, July 31. At that time, there was only one more PP to overcome...that of the January candle at 3259.31. As of Tuesday's close of the new August candle, it's well above all previous monthly PPs.

R1 sits at 3333.79...Tuesday closed just below at 3333.69...after hitting a high of 3381.70 (just under R2 at 3396.46).

The Balance of Power has been declining since May. It was hovering just above the zero level at the close of the July candle...signalling a potential weakness or lack of conviction in the buying in the ensuing months.

Near-term support sits, firstly, at January's PP at 3259.31, then July's PP at 3217.12. A drop and hold below that level may see price reach S1 at 3154.45, or lower. 

A 10% correction from the recent high would see the SPX reach somewhere around 3,043.53...S2 sits at 3037.78, so that's possible.

The SPX:VIX ratio dropped back below 150, after briefly breaking above and retesting the 200 MA, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

The RSI is threatening to break its recent uptrend, but is still above 50. Both the MACD and PMO indicators are about to form bearish crossovers.

If the RSI breaks and holds below 50, and if the MACD and PMO form bearish crossovers, we may see price retest the 50 MA around 115, or lower to the next major support at 100...all as confirmation that the SPX may drop to its July PP, S1, or even correct by 10% down to S2.

However, if the SPX breaks back and holds above R1 (3333.79), it may retest or overshoot its all-time high of 3393.52. R2 sits at 3396.46

Then, the next major resistance level (R3) is much higher (with only air in between) at 3513.13...so we'd be in for one heck of a bear surprise if that were reached!

I'd venture a guess that things are going to get "interesting" (volatile) this week...one way or the other!


From This Week's "Smile File"...An Economist Is...


An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he/she predicted yesterday did not happen today. 
😊










Saturday, July 18, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values for Week of July 20

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the week of July 20 are based on the high/low/close for the July 13 weekly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each weekly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the weekly chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days and weeks.

On Friday, it closed above the PP for the July 20 week and only remains below the PPs of the weeks of December 23 to February 17...which represents relatively minor resistance, considering that it fought through all of 2018, most of 2019, and most of the 2020 overhead resistance since the March low.

R1 sits at 3265.94 and S1 at 3155.78, which represent near-term resistance and support levels or targets. 

If the SPX holds above this week's PP of 3196.99, there's a good chance it will reach R1, or higher; otherwise, a drop and hold below it could see it hit S1, or lower.


Volatility has dropped off the past couple of weeks, as the SPX:VIX ratio broke above the 100 level, once more, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

Its target is the 200-day moving average around the 150-155 level, which converges with the next level of major price resistance.

The RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators are all bullish, so look for that to continue in order to confirm any further sustainable rally on both the SPX:VIX ratio and the SPX

Otherwise, any hesitation or reversal on these would not bode well for SPX buyers...particularly if the SPX drops and holds below the PP at 3196.99, and, especially, if the Balance of Power flips from buyers to sellers on the weekly timeframe (falls and remains below zero).


China's Predatory Tactics Against US Companies

U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr spoke on July 16 at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum and blasted China's predatory tactics against US companies. Tech companies and Hollywood did not escape criticism.

transcript of the AG's prepared remarks can be read at this link.


China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) dropped below 3300 last week after briefly piercing it, as shown on the following weekly chart.

The sellers have regained control of the Balance of Power on this timeframe.

If the SSEC fails to reclaim and hold above 3300, and if buyers fail to return convincingly, it could drop to around 2800, or so, inasmuch as 3300 seems to be the Bull/Bear line-in-the sand at the moment.


Sunday, July 05, 2020

SPX: Alligator's Jaw Shuts...Higher Prices Ahead?

Further to my post of June 29, the jaw of the William's Alligator has shut and two of the three moving averages (each offset into the future) have re-crossed and turned up, as shown on the following SPX daily chart.

As well, the Awesome Oscillator has flipped above the zero level.

Both of these are hinting that further buying may be in store...I'd need to see the third moving average turn up to confirm potential strength.

However, the Balance of Power is still with the sellers, albeit somewhat tepid, so, unless we see this flip to the buyers on this timeframe, we may be in for a bit more weakness before we see sustained buying resume.

Near-term support sits around 3070. If that's crossed, look for price to, potentially, re-test 3000, or lower.


Price on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart has broken back above 100 and the 50-day moving average, once again.

The RSI has crossed above the 50 level, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the PMO is poised to cross to the upside.

We may see serious buyers step in on the SPX if:
  • price can remain above 3070
  • the AO remains above zero
  • the BOP flips from sellers to buyers
  • the RSI can hold above 50 on the SPX:VIX ratio
  • the MACD can hold its bullish crossover on the SPX:VIX ratio
  • the PMO forms a bullish crossover on the SPX:VIX ratio

Otherwise, we may see some minor selling on the SPX down to the 3000 level, or even a stronger effort to push it much lower toward 2800.


If U.S. Mobs Were Russians Attacking America...

If these U.S. mobs were Russians who were physically attacking American statues, memorials, churches, religious symbols, cities, private property, police, citizens, shop owners, etc., on America's soil, then the Americans in these mobs, as well as Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Adam Schiff, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, and the media would be outraged and asking why the President isn't defending them!

You can't reason with out-of-control mobs, Democrats, and Dem-controlled media!

Twitter link

So, once you're fed up with trying to reason with or please them, there is one final message you can quote that everyone seems to understand...


Then, their mess stays dumped squarely in their laps...they own it! 😏

Monday, June 29, 2020

DANGER: Alligator Crossing on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index

Further to my post of June 21 with respect to the SPX, I'd just mention that the three moving averages (each offset into the future) forming the Williams Alligator on its counterpart S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES) have all crossed to the downside, as shown on the following daily chart.

As well, the Awesome Oscillator has just turned negative in Sunday's overnight trading.

Both of these are signalling potential further weakness ahead.


Price on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart has slipped below 100, once again.

It needs to retake and hold above 100, the RSI needs to rise and hold above 50, and MACD and PMO bullish crossovers need to reform to signal potential sustainable SPX strength.

So, keep an eye on whether these ratio parameters can manifest, together with a rally and hold of the ES above 3075, plus a reversal and uncrossing of the Alligator moving averages to the upside, along with a reversal and hold of the AO above the zero level.

Otherwise, we may see more SPX selling to retest its June low of 2965.66, or lower.


Saturday, June 27, 2020

Twitter Knocked Off Its #1 App Perch

The Twitter app has been knocked off its Number 1 perch, as free speech social media platform Parler has risen to the top to take its place...(many Twitter users are switching to Parler for their town-square style free discussion).






Twitter (TWTR) is still below its IPO opening price of 45.10 (November 7, 2013), as shown on the following monthly chart. In fact, it's 30% below, as shown on the second chart.

The Balance of Power still rests in the hands of sellers as downside Momentum continues to accelerate.

Major support sits somewhere around 20.00, while major resistance is still formed by its IPO opening price of 45.10.

Until we see a reversal (and hold) of both the BOP and MOM above the zero level, I'd expect the selling to continue...while Parler's userbase continues to explode.



Sunday, June 21, 2020

SPX Targets

Further to my post of June 15, the SPX pushed above 3080.20 to reach a high of 3155.53 on Friday, as shown on the daily chart below.

I've shown two Fibonacci Extensions (one taken from the March low and the other taken from the June low), as well as an Andrew's Pitchfork (taken from the March low), and a Williams Alligator (formed by three moving averages, each offset into the future).

There are two areas of price confluence zones (targets) above the current price. The first is a minor confluence zone around the 3250 level (where two of the Fib Extension levels converge). The second is a major confluence zone around 3350 (where two of the Fib Extension levels converge with the bottom of the Andrew's Pitchfork channel).

The SPX closed on Friday just above the upper-most moving average of the Alligator. As well, all three moving averages are either curled upwards or in the process of doing so, hinting of higher prices ahead. I'd like to see the momentum indicator reverse its negative reading and push through and hold above the zero level to confirm any rally higher to either of these price targets in the short term. 

Otherwise, we may see the SPX retest its June low of 2965.66, or lower.


Monday, June 15, 2020

SPX: In The Jaws Of The Alligator

As of today's close, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently in the 'jaws of the alligator' -- Williams Alligator, to be precise, which is formed by three moving averages, each offset into the future -- as shown on the following daily chart.

All three moving averages are curling down and the upper one has just crossed below the middle one...hinting of further weakness ahead.  Today's low touched the lower MA, which roughly converges with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break and hold below today's low of 2964.40, together with the crossing of the middle MA below the lower MA, could send the price down to the next Fibonacci retracement level (40%) at 2835, or even the 50% level at 2712.

Conversely, if today's high of 3080.20 (which is roughly the present level of the crossed upper and middle MAs) is broken and held, we could see the SPX push above the alligator's jaw and retest last week's high at 3233.13, or higher. Watch for the shortest MA to curl upwards, then the other two, to support higher prices.

The momentum indicator (MOM) has risen back above the zero level today. It's important that it remain above zero to support higher prices in the near term.