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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Spring

Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC VENTS...
* Wed. May 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. May 3 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Fri. May 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. May 15 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. May 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. May 23 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9, Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6, Mar. 22 came in at 44.7 & Apr. 18 came in at 44.5 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Wed. May 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

"Why does history keep repeating itself? Because we weren't listening the first time." ~~ Author Unknown
"If a fool and his money are soon departed, how did the fool get his money in the first place?" ~~ Author Unknown

Friday, April 19, 2019

A Joe Biden Stock Market

Former Vice-President Joe Biden may run for President in the 2020 election. He stated recently that his platform would be the Obama/Biden policies of yesteryear.

Were he to be elected, and if the old Obama policies were resurrected, we could very well see the S&P 500 Index return to pre-Trump levels around the 2200 level, or lower, as shown on the monthly chart below.

In the two years since President Trump took office, the SPX has gained around the same number of points as it did in the last four years of Obama's presidency. Those gains are in jeopardy, as uncertainty will weigh on markets in anticipation of a possible return to a more socialist agenda under Biden, or an even more far-left leaning Democrat.

Think about it...the Democrats' Green New Deal (et al) is only an election away...


Wednesday, April 03, 2019

SPX:VIX Ratio In "New Bull Market" Territory

Take a look at the following charts of the SPX:VIX ratio. Appearing in order,
  • each candle on the first chart represents a period of one year,
  • each candle on the next represents a period of one quarter,
  • each candle on the next represents a period of one month, and
  • each candle on the last represents a period of one day.

For the third day in a row, price closed on Tuesday above what I've called the 200 "New Bull Market" level since it first broke through during the first week in 2017. It still has a way to go before it runs into the 250-280 "Bull Froth Zone," where we've seen traders/investors spike the price first, then take profits in the SPX since then, beginning in May 2017.

Simply put, judging from the extremely bullish bias of the candle formations and the bullish signals of the technical indicators on all four charts and timeframes, I see no reason for this ratio not to retest this 250-280 "Bull Froth Zone" over the coming days/weeks. This means that the SPX will likely retest its prior all-time high of 2940.91, or spike higher at some point...provided that the SPX:VIX ratio holds above the 200 "New Bull Market" level.

In the short term, look for a bullish crossover (a "BUY" signal) to form on the PMO indicator on the daily chart, for the new bullish crossover (a "BUY" signal) to hold on the MACD, for the RSI to hold above 50 (a "BUY" signal), and for the recent bullish moving average Golden Cross formation (a "BUY" signal) to hold should the ratio price continue to rally, to support/confirm any higher prices in the SPX. Otherwise, we may see, either a period of sideways consolidation or a pullback in the SPX (depending on how skittish traders/investors are feeling), until it makes its next move to, potentially, new highs.

As an aside, the bullish comments referenced in my post of March 26 on U.S. 2-5-10-30-Year Bonds, still apply. As the level of market skittishness increases on SPX higher prices, no doubt, we'll see monies continue to flow into Bonds, possibly at an elevated rate...another clue to monitor for evidence of slowing enthusiasm for equities giving way to a growing demand for Bond hedging.





Tuesday, March 26, 2019

U.S. Bonds Inching Upwards

* See UPDATE below...

U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.


Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 "New Bull Market" level.

I anticipate that we'll likely see one last-gasp push in equities (SPX and other major indices) to, possibly a slightly higher all-time high, before we see a meaningful pullback/correction. Under that scenario, look for the SPX:VIX to break and hold above 200 and, potentially, retest the 280 all-time ratio high.

However, if the SPX:VIX fails to break and hold above 200 on an SPX rally, then I'd anticipate that we won't see a retest of the prior SPX high set in September 2018, but a fizzle before then, instead.

Either way, I anticipate that bonds will continue to gain ground...albeit perhaps slowly, but steadily.


Of note, is this astute observation from Slope of Hope's, Tim Knight...

Source: SlopeOfHope.com

I anticipate that a recession is on the way, if not this year, then likely next year...but likely slowing this year. I understand that Europe, China, Canada, and others are all slowing now. Watch the bond markets for clues and continued strength!

* UPDATE March 26...

Now this report from Investing.com...

Source: Investing.com

Monday, March 25, 2019

Asian Markets Falter...China's Shanghai Index At Major Resistance

Judging by one-day percentages lost, Monday's market action was a bad day for Asian markets, as shown below.


China's Shanghai Index is facing long-term major resistance at current levels, as shown on the following weekly chart of SSEC.

I've shown the input values of the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators as one period. They're both still below the zero level and have, in fact, been declining on recent attempts to move higher during March.

If price breaks and holds above, say, 3150,  I'd like to see both of these indicators also break and hold above zero, while making new highs, as well, to confirm the sustainability of any further meaningful advancement beyond that price.

Otherwise, look for this index to retest its last weekly swing low, or plunge lower, inasmuch as its stability at current levels is questionable.


And...now this...

Source: ZeroHedge.com

Saturday, March 23, 2019

From This Week's "Smile File"...Chaos Theory

A bit of humour for the weekend...


Media & Americans Duped! A Criminal Dud!

* See UPDATES below...

Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of alleged Russia-Trump campaign collusion has been concluded, as advised by Attorney General William Barr on Friday, my observations on what's been uncovered (in a nutshell) in that respect, are as follows.



What started out as political opposition research of Donald Trump and his political campaign in 2015/2016 by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and which was funnelled into the Obama State Department, DOJ and FBI, et al, through multiple sources and turned into a counter-intelligence investigation and subsequent Special Counsel investigation in search of criminal activities and leaked to multiple media outlets in order to, firstly, smear Trump and his chances of being elected as U.S. President, then, to hamstring his presidency, once elected, was, three years later, finally exposed for exactly what it was...a political vendetta and smear campaign and not a criminal matter.

Oppo Research ⇒ Criminal Investigation ⇒ Political Vendetta ⇒ Duped ⇒ Dud!

More on this entire process will be revealed by the U.S. Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, once he completes his separate ongoing internal investigation of numerous DOJ and FBI officials (and any others), which may be released in the next three months, or so.

So, this unabashed, unrelenting three-year political and media anti-Trump smear campaign and legal probe (which was based on salacious and unverified material, according to former FBI Director, James Comey) may end up producing unwanted consequences for the perpetrators involved in this entire complex process...and there could be many people exposed in this scheme. Whether any will be criminally indicted and prosecuted by current DOJ officials remains to be seen. No doubt, there will be much new information to come in the days/weeks ahead, in this regard.

I wonder what damage (not only on domestic matters, but also foreign policy issues) has already been inflicted on the President's ability to properly and fully discharge his duties to the American public, as he was duly elected and sworn in to carry out, because of this smear campaign. Meanwhile, the political chess game will likely continue through to 2020 and beyond, if President Trump is re-elected. At what point do endless and aimless political investigations become political harassment and constitutional overreach?

♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟

Source: WSJ.com

Source: FoxNews.com (click link to view video)

Source: NationalReview.com

Source: TheHill.com

✵✵✵✵✵✵✵

Source: FoxNews.com...to view video, click here


* UPDATE March 24...

Attorney General Barr's 4-page summary letter (below) of Special Counsel Mueller's report was released today (the yellow highlight on page 1 is mine)...of note, are the following excerpts...

"...the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign."

"...Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel's investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense. Our determination was made without regard to, and is not based on, the constitutional considerations that surround the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting president."





Several reactions are as follows...