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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. July 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. July 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains
with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Vulnerability Intensifies For China's Shanghai Index

* See UPDATE below...

Price action on the following monthly chart of China's Shanghai Index has been under the bearish influence of a very long-term downtrending Andrew's Pitchfork channel since it peaked in October 2007 and bottomed the following October.

After a weak attempt to break out above this channel at the end of January of this year, it retreated and is currently dropping early Tuesday morning following President Trump's latest threats several hours ago to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in connection with their recent trade war. It has broken below its near-term major support level of 3000 that I had identified in my posts of April 9 and February 16.

If this index returns to its channel "median," it's in for one heck of a plunge! Look for a break and hold below its last swing low at 2638.30 to continue its current downtrend on this monthly timeframe. It's already in downtrend on the weekly and daily timeframes following its failed channel breakout attempt and the momentum indicator is firmly in downtrend on all three timeframes.

Otherwise, it will have to, first, fight its way back above what is now major resistance at 3000 before attempting to make a new swing high on this timeframe above 3684.57.


* UPDATE @ close...

How world markets closed today (the Shanghai Index was hit particularly hard and lost 3.82%)...U.S. markets did not escape unscathed by Trump's tariff tantrums...


...in fact, the Dow 30 Index is in negative territory for year-to-date gains/losses, as shown in the graph below.


President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff threats against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance...not something that Republicans can proudly promote as they get ready for the November midterm elections. How many times will we see him flip-flop on this and other important issues before then and how will markets react? This, along with many other geopolitical and world market issues, will keep volatility whip-sawing until then.


Friday, June 15, 2018

U.S. Market Risk Surges as World-Wide Trade Wars Escalate

From the daily percentage comparison chart below of the four U.S. Major Indices, you can see that the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices have begun to surge above their recent all-time highs and have accelerated faster than their Dow 30 and S&P 500 counterparts.

The spread between the first two and the latter two indices is ever-widening and higher risk investing is on the rise...signalling that, either this latest surge is the beginning of a new bull market that would, ultimately, pull in the Dow and S&P and send them to record highs, as well, or is in the process of forming a climatic thrust before the end of a very long bull run that began when stocks plummeted to their lows on March 6, 2009, following the 2008/09 financial crisis.

With today's drop in these markets (as of 12:40 pm ET), presumably in response to further tariffs imposed on China by President Trump, we'll see how escalating world-wide trade wars, inflation, and Central Bank interest rate actions affect/infect U.S. (and world) markets in the coming weeks.



Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Muted U.S. Market Reaction Post-U.S./NOKO Summit

* See UPDATE below...

U.S./NOKO SUMMIT

Further to my article of June 3 (and my many follow-up comments/updates), I'm left wondering what planet I'm living on after witnessing a get-together with President Trump and Chairman Kim in Singapore last night.

At the conclusion of their meeting they signed a rather sketchy Joint Statement, which can be read in full here (part of it is shown below). Apparently it's not even as strong as past statements signed by previous U.S. Presidents and NOKO leaders.

We'll see where things develop in the future.

Excerpt from the Trump-Kim Singapore Summit Joint Statement

During brief comments to the press in several breaks throughout the summit and at his subsequent press conference, Mr. Trump was full of flattering remarks about Mr. Kim, while in the same breath, he continued to disparage his allies, especially PM Trudeau...his 'punching bag du jour.' He shouldn't be surprised that America's trading partners would retaliate with their own tariffs in response to his...he knows full well that they have their own countries' interests to protect and will do so, regardless of his personal opinions about them.

I got a kick out of this analysis of his post-summit remarks by CNN. World-wide responses to the summit and agreement are mixed.


Really???...NOT if he treats them like he did Otto Warmbier
(whose parents are suing NOKO for torturing and murdering their son)!

President Trump ends military drills with South Korea, calling them "provocative war games"...a description normally used in propaganda by your opponents.


Seriously?...He continued with his erratic and odd behaviour as he delivered threats to punish Canadians for PM Trudeau's retaliatory tariffs through snarling teeth and with scolding finger-wagging gestures...this came only hours after publicly scoring his relationship with Trudeau as a 'ten' in his press conference that immediately followed the G7 summit. So far, Mr. Trudeau has taken the high road and has refrained from engaging in such pejorative attacks, with the full backing of Canadians...I wonder if Mr. Trump has the full backing of Americans.


And, does this now mean that he will 'feel foolish' again if he's compelled to use tough rhetoric in the future on Kim...or, now that he's exposed this character weakness for Kim and the world to witness, will he continue with his over-the-top flattery of him no matter what?

Who can now take him seriously when he lashes out and uses harsh language with anyone?

MUTED U.S. MARKET REACTION

Meanwhile, U.S. futures markets were muted overnight in their reaction to this news and are slightly up as of 12:00 noon ET today.

If President Trump continues with his steel and aluminum tariffs, and implements additional ones as he's already threatened to do, we'll see how a world-wide trade war impacts inflation and how quickly Central Bankers then raise interest rates (or dispatch further monetary QE measures) to combat that effect.

That may have more effect on markets than future talks with NOKO.


FINAL THOUGHTS

So, will common sense prevail when it comes to President Trump, allies, and trade wars? Do actual (correct and proportional) facts matter to Mr. Trump? We'll see...for the time being he's cozying up to NOKO, China (ZTE) and Russia (inviting them back to rejoin the G7, which was NOT supported by G6 leaders).


* UPDATE June 13...

A slightly more hawkish tone was present in today's FOMC press release regarding future U.S. interest rate increases, including two more for this year...(click here for Fed meeting calendars, statements and minutes). Of note in Chairman Powell's press conference was his announcement that he will hold a press briefing after every Fed meeting beginning in January of next year.


How U.S. Major Indices closed today...


Sunday, June 03, 2018

President Trump: Not A Proven Win-Win International Political Deal Maker

* See UPDATES below...

A NO-WIN FOREIGN POLICY

It's clear that President Trump's "America First" policy does not produce a "win-win" outcome for it and other world trading partners...at least, it has not been proven, yet.

So far, he's only been successful in tearing up prior agreements related to the Trans Pacific Partnership, the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran JCPOA, and has threatened to tear up the NAFTA with Canada and Mexico (see this Global News article: "Reality check: No, the U.S. doesn't have a $17B trade deficit with Canada"..."So the real trade balance with Canada is positive in the U.S.'s favour"...to the tune of "around US$12 billion") as reported by both Statistics Canada and the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

Although he is in current trade talks with China, he has not been successful in negotiating a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, nor has he been successful in negotiating any other bi-lateral or multi-lateral agreement that I'm aware of, including a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

In fact, he has exacerbated tensions in current NAFTA negotiations by slapping hefty and punitive steel and aluminum tariffs on these two closest trading allies, as well as on the European Union...under the guise of "national security" concerns.

He has also increased tensions with these and other countries by tearing up the above-mentioned agreements without replacing them with new agreements.

Inasmuch as the economy of the U.S. is in far better shape than its counterparts, with improved GDP, lower unemployment, rising wage growth, job growth, low inflation, lowered income taxes, reduced business and banking regulations, a comparatively lower dollar (although it has strengthened a bit this year), high business and consumer confidence, increased business capital spending, along with continued growth in its stock markets (likely due to his domestic agenda, much of which he has already implemented), it's inconceivable that Mr. Trump would want to risk all of those gains by taking a hard-line, "winner-takes-all" foreign policy approach by starting trade wars with countries that don't even pose a national security risk and which would create widening and unsustainable imbalances.

THE EVIDENCE

Just look at the evidence as reflected in these world markets and currencies.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

S&P 500 Index: Poised for June Breakout?

* See UPDATE below...

In my last post on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), I mentioned 2750 as major resistance and 2680 as near-term support.

Since then, price has bounced around in between those levels, as shown on the daily chart below. At the moment, those two levels are confirmed by a variety of intersecting trendlines...most notably the two red horizontal lines (2748 and 2685), which are the nearest to these two levels.

Until we see a clean break and hold either above or below this red consolidation zone, the SPX will continue its sometimes extreme, volatile whipsaw action in a trendless manner.

It's unclear whether momentum favours a breakout to the upside, inasmuch as the last swing high on the momentum indicator was lower than its previous swing high, in a divergence with the last two swing highs made by the price. However, this may have been intentional and meant to be used as a possible "bear trap" in preparation for the resumption of the rally that began in early April.

Perhaps the month of June will produce either a decisive continuation and confirmation of this 2-month uptrend, or a reversal, which may become clearer after this Friday's employment data is released. Keep a close eye on the momentum indicator to support a "red zone" breakout in either direction.

Inasmuch as the July 4th Independence Day holiday is only a month away, I'd make a wild guess that market players will favour a breakout to the upside, possibly producing a new record high by then before taking some profits to enjoy for the summer holidays...so, we'll see.


* UPDATE June 1...

Two different political reactions to today's employment data...


Source: ZeroHedge.com

The market's reaction as at 2:00 pm ET...


And the Russell 2000 Index hit a new record high today...looks like markets are "buying USA"...


Thursday, May 24, 2018

Geopolitical Influences on World Markets

The following year-to-date percentage gained/lost graphs of the U.S. Major Indices and Major Sectors show that market participants have favoured riskier technology, small-cap, and consumer cyclical stocks.

U.S. Major Indices Year-to-Date

U.S. Major Sectors Year-to-Date

As you can see from the following monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index, and Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), money has been flowing in and out of them on increased volatility all year since they peaked at or near their all-time highs in January...pretty much as I speculated in my Market Forecast for 2018 post at the end of last year.

With rising tensions related to the upcoming U.S. November mid-term Congressional election and other domestic political pressures, world politics and markets, North Korea, Iran, China, trade imbalances, emerging market challenges, increasing inflation and interest rates, and Central Bank money tightening measures in various countries, it's difficult to see where these markets will gain and hold traction to increase much beyond their highs of this year, on a broad scale.

As such, we may see this kind of money 'ebb and flow' scenario continue throughout the remainder of the year, with markets either stuck in their current trading ranges while rotating in and out of various sectors, or maybe drift higher in a slow, choppy and volatile manner, until some kind of major catalyst propels the markets decisively one way or the other. Perhaps we'll have a clearer idea once second quarter earnings releases begin in July as to company forecasts for the second half of 2018 and beyond, as well as more well-defined Central Bank and geopolitical policies and agendas.




Sunday, May 13, 2018

FYI: 1/2 Hour Video Series Worth a Look re: Iran & Oil

I last wrote about WTIC Crude Oil here. My comments posted there remain unchanged...and we now know that President Trump withdrew US participation in the JCPOA deal on May 8 and that new sanctions will be implemented against Iran and, possibly, nations supporting Iran.

BNN Bloomberg TV's market commentator/analyst, Andrew McCreath's market wrap up and interview last Friday regarding Iran and Oil was interesting and worth a look. His 1/2 hour program is split into the following 4 videos (watch them in order).