WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Snow

Snow

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Jan. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Feb. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. Feb. 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Fri. Feb. 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. Feb. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 4 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Saturday, January 18, 2020

Most Shocking Political Quote Of The Week

This shocker is what Democrat House Speaker *Nancy Pelosi said on January 16 during her Weekly Briefing about the House impeachment witnesses...

"It's not a question of saying, what proof. It says, what allegations have been made."





Judge Jeanine's Opening Statement January 18, 2020...



Let's hope the Senate is a lot more savvy than House Democrats and the Speaker when it comes to judging whether they (the House) have proved that their (entirely partisan) Articles of Impeachment against the President are de facto Constitutional "High Crimes and Misdemeanors," that would actually warrant a "guilty" verdict to be rendered by the Senate!

Otherwise, I despair for the future of the Republic of the United States of America and their Constitution. It has already been stained by the nonsensical and hysterical partisan actions perpetrated by *Nancy Pelosi.

Click this link to read more about these documents.

*Nancy Pelosi: Someone who will be remembered as somebody who once ran a gift shop on the Hill and handed out some free gold pens with her name on it -- at the expense of taxpayers -- but was unable to sell what she was peddling to them.

AKA: Somebody who has also earned an asterisk.





From This Week's "Smile File"...Word Of The Week


I learned a new word today.

Appearing in the first sentence of this Wall Street Journal article by their Editorial Board (regarding the House impeachment of President Trump), is the word "vouchsafed." Judging from the tone of their piece, it's a most fitting term...in fact, I think it's brilliant! 😊

Its definition is as follows...


The definition of "condescending" is as follows...


After reading their article, I think another word that would aptly fit the delivery occasion is the word "foist," as I explained in my January 18 update of this pre-Xmas post.

Its definition is as follows...



Thursday, January 16, 2020

President Trump's Legacy: In The Making...


I've written a number of posts over the past couple of years on the subject of President Trump's legacy, some of which have been quite critical (scathing, to be exact) of his actions, some in defence of his other actions, some critical of situations created by others against him, and some of which have showcased his achievements. I tried to capture, as best I could, what I saw as truths, at that time.

My most recent post on that subject contained a document that outlined 319 achievements that Mr. Trump has made in the 3 years since he took office.

I would note that, as of today's date (January 16), the U.S. has, under President Trump, successfully signed new trade agreements with South Korea, Japan, Mexico/Canada (USMCA), and China (Phase I).

The USMCA was approved by the Senate today (approved by the House on December 19, 2019) and the China Phase I deal was signed by the President and China yesterday. Both of these deals were made this week while Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's impeachment team delivered their Two Articles of Impeachment to the Senate for their upcoming trial of President Trump, which will begin next Tuesday.

It's ironic that, while the President has been busy working for the people of the United States and producing actual tangible results (319 of them), Democrat Congressmen/women have been working to remove him and overturn the results of the 2016 election, and have accomplished nothing on behalf of the voters. The contrast could not be more extreme.


The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has rallied from its November 2016 low of 2083.79 to a high of 3317.50, reached today...for a gain of 55.61% since the November 8, 2016 Presidential election.

Interestingly, the market did not implode, in spite of all the dire predictions made by numerous agonizing/hand-wringing media pundits, political opponents, and economic analysts at that time.

The following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it's well on its way to its target of 3350, as mentioned in my post of January 9.

I've shown the input value on the Average True Range (ATR) as one period to show that, as of today, it's not registering at an extreme high reading on the monthly timeframe, suggesting that this rally has not begun to turn frothy and overbought, yet.

Likewise, the Balance of Power indicator has not yet reached an extreme high, suggesting further upside is possible.

For the time being, the U.S. equity market seems unfazed by Democrat impeachment shenanigans.


P.S.

To clarify...it appears that the "Wall Street Powers-That-Be" have not been encumbered by negative emotions about Trump, nor have they stopped to second-guess (or examine in detail) the soundness of his numerous deals and executive orders that he's completed during the past 3 years. Instead, it seems they're satisfied that they ARE concluded, thereby eliminating indecision, which seems to have more of a crippling (or dampening) impact on their decision-making in the markets.

So, watch for an ATR extreme spike, or a series of spikes, on the SPX monthly chart as a potential signal that "TPTB" have, either, lost faith in the President, or that an outside unforeseen event is triggering a market turnaround.

In other words, follow the money. And ATR spikes (with an input value of one period) may provide a clue as to turnaround points and where money may be headed. This is something I've been monitoring on ETFs for approximately the past 10 years...seems to be a good tool to have in one's kit.

Thursday, January 09, 2020

SPX Outperforming GOLD & OIL

Further to my post of January 5, the following provides an update on price action as of today's (Thursday's) close.

The following monthly chart shows the SPXGOLD and OIL in comparison format, as well as their respective high, low and today's closing price for January, so far.

The instrument currently facing the "path of least resistance" is the SPX. It shot through prior near-term resistance (now support) of 3233 and continues to rally.

While GOLD and OIL tested (and briefly overshot) their near-term resistance levels of 1600 and 65.00, respectively, they've retreated substantially. Not only do these remain near-term resistance levels, there is considerable overhead supply above those levels, presenting the "path of greatest resistance."


The following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart shows price nearing its prior historical highs around 280 or just above.

To confirm an SPX continued rally, watch for:
  • the RSI to break and hold above its downtrend formation and hold above 50.00
  • the recent bullish MACD crossover to hold
  • the PMO to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • as I mentioned in my above-referenced post, the next major resistance level (target) for the SPX is 3350


The following GOLD:GVZ daily ratio chart shows that price is caught between its 50 and 200 moving averages.

To confirm whether the recent GOLD pullback reverses and retests 1600, or higher, watch for:
  • the RSI to break and hold above 50.00
  • the MACD to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • the PMO to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • price to blow through and hold above the 50 MA at 127.67

Otherwise, watch for GOLD weakness to continue, especially if the ratio price breaks and holds below its 200 MA at 114.27.


The following WTIC:OVX daily ratio chart shows that price is caught between its 50 and 200 moving averages.

To confirm whether the recent OIL pullback reverses and retests 65.00, or higher, watch for:
  • the RSI to reverse, break and hold above 50.00
  • the MACD to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • the PMO to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • price to blow through and hold above the 50 MA at 1.93

Otherwise, watch for OIL weakness to continue, especially if the ratio price breaks and holds below its 200 MA at 1.78.


Sunday, January 05, 2020

SPX/GOLD/OIL: Too Hot or Not?

I'll simply summarize and provide the major resistance and support levels for the SPX, GOLD and OIL shown on the following monthly charts and you can judge for yourselves whether strength or weakness is in the cards in the near term.

SPX:

As I mentioned in my post of December 29, 2019, the SPX hit my Q4 target of 3233 by year end. It happens to coincide with a +4 standard deviation of a long-term uptrending regression channel and has now formed near-term support. Its next support sits around 3070 (the +3 channel deviation).

The next major resistance level is around 3350, which intersects with this regression channel's +5 standard deviation.

The RSI, MACD and Stochs technical indicators are strongly in bull territory, but are approaching overbought status. However, this doesn't mean an automatic pullback is imminent...rather, we may see some profit-taking occur in the near term, resulting in a minor consolidation...caution is warranted on the "BUY" side.


GOLD:

Gold is approaching a major resistance level at 1600. It has popped above the upper edge of a rising channel around 1545, which is now major support. Its next support sits around 1450 (confluence of price support and the +1 channel deviation).

The RSIMACD and Stochs technical indicators are strongly in bull territory, but are approaching overbought status. However, this doesn't mean an automatic pullback is imminent...rather, we may see some profit-taking occur, resulting in a minor consolidation...caution is warranted on the "BUY" side as price approaches 1600. If it blows through that price, we may see it shoot for 1,800, or higher, in the near-to-medium term.


OIL:

Price is approaching first resistance around 65.00 (+1 deviation of a rising channel), followed by 70.00ish (in between the 200-month moving average and upper band of the channel).

Major support sits at 60.00 (confluence of price support and the channel median).

The RSIMACD and Stochs technical indicators have recently moved into bull territory on this timeframe. I'd say that, of these three instruments, OIL has the most potential to continue to be a "BUY." However, caution is warranted on the "buy" side as price approaches 65.00. If it blows through that price, we may see it shoot for 70.00, or higher, in the near term.


Wednesday, January 01, 2020

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Trump's Promises Made & Kept

So far, there have been 319 achievements and promises kept in 3 years by President Trump...this should look good on his resume...










He may have been impeached by the House just before Christmas (or was he?), but he's still in the White House...


From This Week's "Smile File"...A Perfect Start

This one never gets old...my wish for all of you...that someone helps you get off to a perfect start...😊


China's Shanghai Index Heats Up

China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) heats up in anticipation of the signing of the new U.S./China Phase I Trade Deal, expected on January 15, 2020.


The monthly chart of the SSEC shows price has just broken above a downtrend line that began at the highs of June 2015.

Major resistance lies at 3086.91 (a 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level), while major price support sits at 3000.

The Balance of Power on this timeframe favours the buyers and is nearing an all-time high set back in April 2007, after which price spiked up from 3197 to 6124 by the end of October that year, for a gain of 2,927 points during that 7-month time period.

If price breaks and holds above 3087, its next major resistance (40% Fib) level is 3486.55...a level not seen since January 2018.

However, if, for some reason, the Phase I Trade Deal is not signed, and if the SSEC breaks and holds below 3000, then I'd look for a drop to new lows to, at least 2700, or lower.


2020 is almost here...Happy New Year's Eve!


Sunday, December 29, 2019

SPX: What's In Store For The 2020s & 2030s?

THE LONG VIEW INTO THE FUTURE...



Each candle on the following chart of the SPX represents a period of one year.

From 1932 to 1972, it, essentially, rallied for 40 years, particularly for the latter 30 years. From 1974 to 2000, its bull run lasted for 26 years. For the past 10 years, it's also been in a strong bull market.

Very simply, history shows that, for the most part, the SPX has been a strong (BUY) candidate for longer-term investors over an average of 30 years running, and that is likely to be repeated for another 10-20 years, generally speaking.


As I write this post on December 28 (with only 2 trading days left in 2019), the following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it has gained 340% from its March 2009 lows.

The Balance of Power is currently under the control of buyers and has yet to match prior highs...hinting of further upside potential for 2020.

Furthermore, if the 2020s are as strong as the 2010s, look for a similar percentage gain through to 2030...and, possibly again to 2040...before we eventually see a meaningful pullback/consolidation for, perhaps, 10 years through to 2050.


As long as the Technology Sector (Nasdaq Composite Index) remains strong through 2020, as I wrote in my post of December 26, no doubt that will bode well for the SPX.

The following monthly chart shows a gain of 554% for the past 10 years. The gains in the tech sector have outpaced the U.S. markets, in general. That is likely to continue and, possibly, strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years as innovation accelerates...buoying the rest of the markets, in turn...one to watch!


N.B. By the way, the SPX managed to hit my Q4 target of 3233 by the end of this year, as I forecast in my post of September 29...(the monthly chart below is from that post).


P.S. So, as I asked in my post of December 24 [one-day $34.4 Billion U.S. retail sales and $17 Trillion global market gains (21.68%) this year], "What's not to like, Joe?"

Happy New Year!