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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Crocuses

Crocuses

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Feb. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 4 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Mar. 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Mar. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Tues. Mar. 17 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. Mar. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Monday, February 10, 2020

FNGU: Blow-Off Top Coming?

I last wrote about FNGU in my post of December 26, 2019.

FNGU is an exchange-traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies. The index is highly concentrated and equally weighted.

Since then, price blew through both the 78.6% Fibonacci level and it's prior all-time high, as shown on the following weekly chart.

The Balance of Power still lies in the hands of buyers, in spite of a bit of a blow-off in the last weekly candle. We may not see a trend reversal until this indicator spikes to, and closes on, a new high in one of the coming weeks.

I've shown the input value on both the Rate of Change (ROC) and Average True Range (ATR) technical indicators as one period and both indicators in histogram format.

The ROC on this past week's candle is just below its all-time high (which may be reflective of its blow-off close for the week). No doubt, it may have been at an all-time high when price was at its high of 100.11 on Tuesday.

The ATR spiked to an extreme all-time high this past week.

While the Balance of Power appears to indicate that the buying may not yet be over, the ROC and ATR indicators are hinting at some volatility, choppiness and caution ahead. We may see price attempt to retest last week's all-time high before it, either consolidates in a sideways trend, or drops to near-term support around 80.00, or lower.

However, the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) is only 480 points away from its 10,000 target (as of Friday's close)...a figure I mentioned in my above-referenced post. So, we may see a parabolic spike to that price in short order. If so, we'll likely see FNGU retest 100, or spike higher...before they both, potentially, form blow-off tops.



Sunday, February 09, 2020

A Tale Of Two Parabolic Markets

Check out the similar parabolic moves on Tesla (TSLA) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the following weekly comparison chart.

Although both instruments are wildly different (inasmuch as Tesla is actually pegged to a tangible product and is backed by shareholders, Bitcoin is not...it's a cryptocurrency), they've both experienced extreme parabolic moves.

Bitcoin dropped like a stone throughout 2018 before it stabilized and eventually experienced a mini-rally (in comparison to its prior heady spike to 19,210 in 2017). Since mid-2019, it has mostly dropped in a choppy manner, and is attempting yet another comeback.

Tesla reached a high of 968.99 on February 4 before losing a couple of hundred points in two days. The Balance of Power is still in the hands of buyers on this timeframe. A drop and hold below zero will shift that power to sellers...one indicator to watch over the coming weeks.


Monday, February 03, 2020

China Markets Plunge

Here's a snapshot of CNBC's world market heat map as at 1:25 am ET Monday February 03.

North and South American markets are still closed from Friday. Of particular note is China's Shanghai Index (SSEC)...down 8%...presumably on worries related to the coronavirus.

However, it seems to me that there may be systemic problems that have been hidden by China for years with respect to their real (sustainable) economic prowess, or lack thereof...based on what the following chart and analysis reveal.



Source: Reuters.com

The following monthly chart of the SSEC shows this overnight catastrophic drop.

Price has been trapped in a large sideways trading range between 3000 and 2500 since mid-2018...and is now precariously suspended in the middle of this zone.

Essentially, it's had difficulty getting any sustained traction above 3000 since it plunged below in June 2008. When it did manage to break through in December 2014, it was followed by a volatile, parabolic rise and fall back to its current level by the end of 2015. Successive attempts to break out have been increasingly feeble and short-lived.

It's clear, from a charting perspective, that China has been struggling to regain its heady glory days as a stable global economic leader since its bottoming in October 2008, following the global financial crisis.

What's unclear to me, at this time, is when that slump will finally end.

For clues on when this particular rout may be stemmed, I've shown the input value on the ATR (Average True Range) and ROC (Rate-of-change) technical indicators as one period (one month). At the moment, neither of these has spiked to an extreme level, as did occur following the 2008 financial crisis crash and, then, after another drop through to January 2016.

Watch for extreme spikes to form on both of these indicators as a potential sign that a turnaround in market sentiment may, finally, be on the way.

A drop and hold below 2500 could see price plunge further to 2000, or lower, in short order.


Sunday, February 02, 2020

From This Week's "Smile File"...Game Day!

SUPER BOWL 2020: Sunday, February 2



PUPPY BOWL 2020: Sunday, February 2

As fans enjoy Super Bowl 2020, I'd just post this compilation of highlights from previous Puppy Bowls (courtesy of Animal Planet)...


This year's Puppy Bowl will begin on Sunday at 3:00 pm ET on Animal Planet. People can also follow the action during the game at Animal Planet's Facebook, Twitter and Instagram pages.

And...this year's winning team is...



SUPER PALINDROME 02/02/2020


FYI...👀






"The Old Switcheroo" Game

Thanks to *Nancy Pelosi's fumbled impeachment shenanigans, here's a preview of what could happen if Joe Biden is elected President in November 2020. 😮

She's certainly lowered (all but eliminated) the bar on impeachment standards in the House to pave the way for such a scenario!

Something to ruminate (along with your hamburger) during today's Super Bowl half-time show...😏



Source: bloomberg.com

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Money Flow Flip: SPX vs GOLD vs OIL

Further to my post of January 9, GOLD is poised to take the lead away from the SPX in terms of safe-haven money flow, while money has been fleeing OIL.

As shown on the following monthly comparison chart of the SPX, GOLD and OIL, the Balance of Power has shifted from buyers to sellers in the SPX on this timeframe.

For clues as to further weakness or strengthening of the SPX, please refer to my comments with respect the SPX:VIX ratio in my last post, which hints of further weakness. Furthermore, January's candle formation on the SPX is a shooting star, also a bearish signal in the longer term.

Near-term major resistance sits at 1600 for GOLD. That level must be recaptured and held to support any further sustainable rally with conviction.


SPX:VIX Ratio Trendline Break: Look Out Below

Further to my post of January 27, the SPX:VIX ratio broke and closed below its 2019 uptrend line on Friday, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

Failure to recapture and hold above, firstly, 180, then, 200 will signal further weakness in the SPX.

Breaks of the RSI, MACD and PMO uptrends are hinting of further weakness in the SPX.

Failure of the SPX to hold and rally above Friday's closing price of 3225.52 could see it drop to around 3189 or 3153, as described in my above-referenced article.


Monday, January 27, 2020

S&P Emini Futures Intraday Targets For 01/27/20

Monday's (January 27) intraday Pivot Point targets for the S&P Emini Futures Index (ES) are (as shown on the following 30-day 60-min chart):

R3 = 3415.83
R2 = 3359.33
R1 = 3325.17
PP = 3302.83
S1 = 3268.67
S2 = 3246.33
S3 = 3189.83

Weekly VWAP = 3262.10
Monthly VWAP = 3280.73
50-hr MA = 3312.46
200-hr MA = 3311.36
*Note that the 50-hr MA is about to cross below the 200-hr MA on this 60-min timeframe...hinting of further weakness ahead if a crossover holds.

All of these levels represent intraday support and resistance levels for Monday.


The following daily chart of the ES contains an Andrew's Pitchfork and a Fibonacci Retracement study.

The near term support level is around the 3223 to 3235 zone...a convergence of the bottom of the pitchfork channel and the 23.6 Fib retracement level. This zone is also the closest in price to the S2 pivot point level (3246.33). As I write this post Sunday night around 11:30 pm ET, the ES is hovering just above S2. A break and hold below this price, could send the ES to its next support level at 3189.83 (S3).

We've not yet seen an extreme spike on the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator and the Average True Range (ATR), so Sunday's night's drop may not yet be finished. Note that I've shown the input value of each of these indicators as one period and in histogram format to show (in an exaggerated view) where the extreme spikes occurred in the past, which tend to represent, either a turning point, or a level at which consolidation occurs before a trend reversal takes place.


Finally, the following daily ratio chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that price has dropped below the 50 MA and may be headed down to the 200 MA around the 200 price support level.

The RSI has dropped below the 50 level, and both the MACD and PMO indicators have formed a bearish crossover, all of which are hinting of lower prices on the SPX and higher volatility in the near term.

If the ES breaks and holds below S2 (3246.33), prepare for a potential drop to S3 (3189.83) and a retest of 200 (or lower) on the SPX:VIX ratio.