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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Destiny

Destiny

ECONOMIC EVENTS

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Wed. Sept. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

* Fri. Oct. 1 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data

* Fri. Oct. 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data

* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data

* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes

*  Thurs. Oct. 14 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data

* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data

*  Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment

*  Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations

* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.


Wednesday, September 15, 2021

CHINA: 2021 Financial Crisis Looming?

* See UPDATES below...

Today's Zero Hedge article regarding China's second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group (and its major debt obligations and defaults), prompted me to analyze a number of charts in light of previous articles I've written about China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) and China's Financial ETF, namely GXC, including other global indices and Financial ETFs. By the way, the last article I wrote about these markets and ETFs (on March 12, 2020) can be found here.

The words "widespread contagion," mentioned in the ZH article, should be taken into consideration when one examines possible financial consequences that we may see erupt in a big way, in China and, potentially, in U.S. and global markets.

My analysis of the situation is purely technical and begins with showing where a number of indices and financial ETFs are positioned today.

The following monthly comparison chart of the SSEC and GXC shows that they have, historically, moved in lock-step. However, note the huge divergence that has occurred since February 2021.

The GXC has fallen from a high of 156.29 to a low of 107.93...while the SSEC is still pushing up against its highs of this year.

So, either the SSEC will plunge to catch up with its counterpart, or the GXC will stabilize and spike to retest its all-time high.

Given what I've deduced from Zero Hedge's report, my own cynical outlook is that the SSEC will drop to somewhere around the 3000 level, or lower to 2500, or even lower yet.

I think that level will depend on whether there is, in fact, a catastrophic contagion fallout to banks and investors in China, as well as, potentially, banks and investors in the U.S. and Europe which may be directly, or indirectly, impacted by such fallout, as well as a knock-on effect on possible further supply chain disruptions around the globe and inflation spikes in this scenario, as well.


While the GXC has dropped precipitiously this year, the U.S. Financial ETF, XLF, has remained near its all-time high, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.


The following monthly comparison chart shows that Europe's Financial ETF, EUFN, has pulled back a bit from this year's high, while China's GXC has plunged.

Keep a close eye on all three comparison charts and note how each of these three Financial ETFs are trending in the coming days and weeks. 

They should signal how much of an impact or contagion may spread from the Evergrande debts and defaults to the banking sectors and investors around the globe...and how such contagion may impact the global equity markets...e.g., track the price action of the MSCI World Index and the GXC for a big-picture view, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.

When price falters and begins to drop in the MSCI World Index, look for the SPX and European Indices to weaken, as well.

My last post on the SPX outlined, in detail, what to look for with respect to its own precipitous "bubble" formation that it's currently locked within. So, keep an eye on those clues, as well (e.g., other markets, namely, the U.S. Dollar, Treasury Yields and Gold).

Also, although I was a bit early with my projections of a parabolic blow-off top occurring in U.S. Banks, as outlined in my post of April 10, the threat is still there, and my comments are still relevant today.

* UPDATE September 16...

Things could get ugly for Evergrande investors, as well as Chinese and global markets...


Excerpt from ZeroHedge article

* UPDATE September 19...

Monday's trading in China should be interesting...as well as in U.S. and European markets...although, U.S. traders may hold back on major selling in the hope that the Fed remains dovish in its upcoming meeting on Wednesday...





Monday, September 13, 2021

MASKS: Now You See Them...Now You Don't...On Democrats 😕

Hypocrisy was displayed in full force, yet again, by Democrat leaders...this time at the 9/11 2021 ceremony...shameful! 

No wonder Americans don't trust what they have to say regarding all things pertaining to COVID-19!

Posing for cameras...masks on

Cameras off...posing over...masks off


More hypocrisy...in California...


And more...


Sunday, September 12, 2021

WINDMILLS & SOLAR PANELS: The Not-So-Green Energy Systems

How many landfills will be needed world-wide to bury non-recyclable non-degradable windmill blades by 2030

Add to that, burial sites for those parts of broken-down solar panels and hazardous materials that aren't recyclable.

Where are the protests of environmentalists against the ever-increasing use of these not-so-green eco-damaging energy systems?


Meanwhile, Crude Oil WTI is butting up against long-term major resistance.

A break and hold above 70.00 would likely see a retest of 80.00, or even higher to 100.


Saturday, September 11, 2021

9/11 2001...NEVER FORGET

With all the chaotic political, economic and national security messes/crises that President Joe Biden has created in America and abroad since he took office in January 2021, one has to wonder about his competence -- and that of all his advisors and cabinet members -- and whether he is capable of fulfilling his duty.


Need I say more...


~~~~~~~

N.B. How the events unfolded the morning of 9/11 are detailed at this link.



Friday, August 27, 2021

SPX: The Biggest Non-Bubble In History

* See UPDATES below...

Wall Street claims U.S. markets are not in a bubble.

Ooookaaaay...

Take a look at this monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX)...compare the rally, to date, from 2009 with the two prior ones leading up to August 2000 and October 2007...and judge for yourself.

No bubble

How about parabolic, then?

How much longer will the Fed continue to soft-pedal increasing domestic and global risks to economic and market stability, inflation, and national/international security issues, etc., by flooding markets with endless money-printing measures?

At the time of writing my post, every U.S. taxpayer is liable for $227,474 of the national debt.

How much longer will Wall Street continue to ignore and downplay those issues?

We'll see what happens....but the fall is likely to be spectacular and unprecedented.


* UPDATE September 4...

Just do the math...for confirmation of my analysis, check out the details outlined in this article...


* UPDATE September 5...

In a nutshell, my big takeaway from the detailed report below is that runaway inflation could cause the U.S. dollar to plummet, Treasury yields to spike, and Gold to become a safe-haven hedge against such a scenario...leaving equities vulnerable to the clutches of a severe bear market.

So, keep an eye on the price action of these three over the coming weeks and months, which are depicted on the following monthly chart.

Gold is sitting on major support and is poised to rally to new highs, the U.S. dollar is range-bound and swirling around long-term major support/resistance, and the US10YT is sitting just below and poised to break above major resistance, once again, and rally to form a new uptrend on this timeframe.

No wonder the Fed keeps insisting that inflation is 'transitory!'



* UPDATE September 17...

The question of the bubble-burst is not IF, but WHEN.


Inflation expectations rose again, as reported today.

Source: Forex Factory


Exerpt from ZH article

Consumer sentiment dropped, again, as reported today.

Source: Forex Factory

The panic sets in...



And, don't forget that Biden's catastrophic southern border distaster and COVID super-spreader event -- 200,000 illegal aliens crossing per month who are being transported and dumped by Biden's minions in towns and cities all across the country -- has created an avoidable humanitarian and health crisis of epic proportions, as his administration is trying to prevent the media from filming this mess.


All of this, plus his other botched policies, adds to out-of-control  inflation...and spiking COVID-19 cases from illegal immigration.

Sooner or later markets will react,
as Biden breaks America.

~~~~~~~


N.B. Read more on inflation here and more on national security here.


Sunday, August 15, 2021

Biden's White House on Holiday While Afghanistan Falls to Taliban

Link to video

President Joe Biden's botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan has created a colossal international crisis that will spawn epic terrorist threats to the entire world for decades to come.

There are growing calls for Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris to resign. There are growing calls to remove him under the provisions of the 25th Amendment. There are growing calls to court-martial him as Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. armed forces.

Take a look at this video (August 22)...it's a damning assessment of the withdrawal and a dangerous and bleak outlook for the entire world by these military experts...


What a mess President Biden has created, domestically and abroad, for America and its allies...he didn't even warn them (or even the Afghanistan military force) ahead of time that he was going to immediately pull all troops out of Afghanistan! 

As long as he remains president and Kamala Harris as VP, the U.S. and the world will continue to be less safe.

How much longer will those around both of them continue to enable them and push their un-American, weak and ill-conceived extreme far-left socialist policies forward, and how much responsibility do they also bear in the failed outcomes and residual fallout? 

In this regard, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, along with Democrats and all their donors -- and to a lesser but very important extent -- the mainstream media (most of it), social media moguls, Hollywood celebs, Wall Street elites and bankers, Corporate moguls, etc. have all slobbered over how Biden/Harris bring 'normalcy' and 'a breath of fresh air' back to America!


Meanwhile, in the days following August 15, Joe Biden repeatedly turned his back on reporters, refusing to answer their questions on Afghanistan in at least three press briefings in the past week...and, by extension, has turned his back on all Americans.

That's his legacy.

Kamala Harris is AWOL...during this crisis and throughout much of Biden's presidency, so far.

That's her legacy.


* UPDATE August 30...

The Pentagon announced today that all U.S. troops and diplomatic personnel have left Afghanistan, ending the 20-year war. There are an unknown firm number of U.S. citizens and Afghan allies who are still stranded in the country and could not get out before the last military plane left today.

Just prior to the terrorist suicide bombing attack at the Kabul airport that killed 13 and wounded approximately 20 U.S. military service members on August 26, (retired) Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster said in a television interview that, 
"There are costs associated with surrendering to a terrorist (Taliban) organization."


Following the 9/11 attacks on America in 2001, the U.S. military engaged in a war in Afghanistan and fought against the Taliban and other terrorist groups in that country for 20 years.

20 years (and thousands of U.S. troops killed and wounded) later, President Biden, essentially, surrendered control of Afghanistan back to the Taliban and left them thousands of pieces of military equipment, in the process...thereby strengthening their (and al-Qaeda and ISIS-K) terrorism capabilities against America.


Americans will have to ask themselves whether the initial purpose of the war and the final results were, and will be, effective at preventing more terrorist attacks in the U.S. from that part of the world.

Furthermore, Americans will have to decide whether or not to hold President Biden and other top leaders in his administration accountable for this surrender and their failed Afghanistan operation to get all Americans and their allies (including billions of taxpayer dollars worth of military equipment) out of the country.

Former President Obama was fond of saying, "There is only one President at a time." 

President Biden is the current president and Commander-in-Chief...the buck stops with him...he is responsible for all decisions made since he took office on January 20 of this year..NOT former President Trump, whom he's been cowardly trying to blame for this botched withdrawal.

I think a tsunami of change will occur in the House and Senate when the 2022 midterm election rolls around, followed by the 2024 presidential election.

Many Americans do NOT want to be ruled by a plethora of rabid socialists, to which they have already been subjected in the U.S. since January.

Many American citizens emigrated/escaped from countries run by socialist and communist leaders and enjoyed their liberties and freedom from tyrannical ideologues...they were supposed to be protected by the U.S. Constitution which is supposed to be upheld by U.S. (Democrat) leaders and the courts.

So, we'll see what happens.



* UPDATE August 31...

The fallout has begun...



Various media reports are now surfacing which detail a number of disturbing facts about this mission:

All you need to know from President Biden's speech on Afghanistan today was that he:
  • lied repeatedly...again,
  • blamed everyone else but himself...again,
  • took no questions...again,
  • and turned his back on Americans...once again...as he left the podium.

So, nothing new.

God help Americans, Afghan women and girls, and the rest of the world.


* UPDATE September 7...

AMERICANS & NATO LEADERS: Are you paying attention yet?...



From Gitmo to Afghan government...via former President Obama and President Biden...




"Our Friends the Taliban": What could possibly go wrong? Are there no sane persons/cabinet secretaries/advisors/leaders running the Biden/Harris administration?

I repeat...AMERICANS & NATO LEADERS: Are you paying attention yet?

* UPDATE September 8...

More lies and despicable, cruel actions exposed in the Biden administration...this time in the State Department, which is actively blocking Americans stranded in Afghanistan from returning to the U.S....


Anger is growing in America at Biden's incompetent Afghanistan blunders and lies...
"Biden has no business setting foot at Ground Zero on the Anniversary of 9/11."
PLUS

* UPDATE September 10...

If this next story doesn't make you seriously question whether Biden's "over-the-horizon military intelligence capabilities" are, in fact, a competent and reliable method to gather intelligence about terrorist activities inside Afghanistan, then I don't know what will. 

The New York Times is reporting that Biden's latest blunder cost 10 innocent Afghans their lives (including 7 children) in the hours leading up to the last American plane leaving Kabul airport. 


By the way, the Biden administration is now praising the Taliban this week for working with the U.S. in a "business-like and professional manner"...in spite of horrific reports, photos and videos coming out of Afghanistan showing these terrorists severly whipping and beating women protesters and the local reporters covering those events, as well as torturing and beheading Afghan allies and their families throughout the country (including taking and killing Afghan boys to prevent their future resistance).

What the hell is going on in 
Joe Biden's Oval Office 
and Administration?

I repeat...AMERICANS & NATO LEADERS: Are you paying attention yet?

* UPDATE September 17...

The Pentagon held a news briefing today to admit that they did, indeed, kill the wrong persons in Kabul with their drone strike. It was an Afghan aid worker, who was busy delivering water to Afghans in need, and family members -- 3 adults and 7 children -- NOT ISIS-K terrorists, as the military leaders and Joe Biden originally bragged.

So, now we have proof that Biden's "over-the-horizon military intelligence capabilities" are not a reliable method with which to conduct counter-terrorism activities in Afghanistan going forward.

No doubt, the multiple terrorist regimes in that country will be emboldened by that revelation...along with the fact that they're now armed with thousands of U.S. military weapons and equipment left behind during their pullout, and the fact that there are still hundreds/thousands of Americans and Afghan allies abandoned there (serving as hostages of the Taliban).



President Biden and his entire cabinet,
as well as VP Kamala Harris,
need to resign immediately
to regain the security and stability of 
America and its global allies.

I repeat...AMERICANS & NATO LEADERS: Are you paying attention yet?

~~~~~~~

May peace come to all who served and survived.

May all those who died, rest in peace.

~~~~~~~

N.B. Read many more details on this HUGE story, as it developed from August 15, onward, on this page in my Blog.