Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary
Living In A Time
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Sunday, May 21, 2023
Friday, May 19, 2023
U.S. DEBT CEILING: Biden Had 100 Days To Negotiate But Rebuffed Republicans
|N.B. Inflation was 1.4% |
when Trump left office
on Jan. 20, 2021
So, here we are, with the presumed expiry date of June 1st fast approaching and no deal has been reached.
The ball is in Joe Biden's court, inasmuch as a majority of the House approved the Republican's bill which raises the debt ceiling (albeit much less than what Biden wanted), with alterations to his budget.
Democrats have not prepared a counter-plan of their own, and neither has President Biden.
So far, Biden has refused to budge on their offer, and talks have now broken down today...with no deal reached...and the President is nowhere in sight, but chose, instead to attend a G7 meeting in Japan.
The following article provides further details on today's failed negotiations and walk-out.
As you can see from the following graphic, the rise of America's Debt Ceiling has become parabolic and cannot be sustained, especially with President Biden's budget proposal to raise it by another $5.8 Trillion this year!
And, with a possible recession looming in the midst of, still, high inflation (in spite of higher interest rates, courtesy of the Fed), and bankruptcies already on the rise (stressing banks), it behoves Biden to justify (to the American public) exploding the debt even higher.
Reckless Federal Reserve monetary policies, as well as the Biden Administration's out-of-control fiscal spending and radical energy policies, have led to high inflation (9.06% in June 2022) and higher U.S. debt.
N.B. Inflation was 1.4% when President Trump left office on January 20, 2021.
Where we go from here is anybody's guess...market players are currently undecided, as well, inasmuch as the SPX is still stuck in its large sideways "Chaos Zone," that I described in my post of March 31, after briefly piercing above its upper edge.
At the moment, price is currently sitting just beneath its channel median, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Failure of the SPX to break and hold above this median and its upper "Chaos Zone," around 4200, could send it back to its lower edge at 3750, or lower to retest 3500, or even 3000.
So, I'll leave you with this little gem...the sum total of Joe's presidency...in his own words...
Seriously, it's no joke! 😕
* UPDATE May 23...
It appears as though President Biden does not take the debt ceiling negotiations seriously and is being seen as negotiating in bad faith...suggesting that there may be some question about the actual default date that has, up to now, been proclaimed as fact by his Treasury Secretary, as described in the following report.
Markets have been fairly subdued and directionless of late, as described above, but just how long investors' patience with this political charade will last is anybody's guess.
The longer this drags on, there is a greater chance we'll see markets drift lower, until they reach a critical velocity that produces a plunge below major support (3750 on the SPX).
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
RUSSIAGATE PART III...THE FINALE: The Durham Report
After nearly three years of investigation, John Durham finally submitted his report on Tuesday, May 12, 2023 to Biden AG Merrick Garland who released it to Congress and the public on May 15...and concluded that the FBI's initiation of an investigation was NOT based on a factual legal predicate, but was, instead, based on political opposition dirt produced by Trump's rival Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's campaign, that was comprised entirely of lies and false accusations of Trump campaign collusions with Russia.
Durham further concluded that the FBI was BIASED against Trump, while exhibiting favour toward potential wrongdoings by Hillary Clinton regarding their investigations of the Clinton Foundation, as well as her use of a private server and private email while she was Secretary of State under President Obama.
He pointed out that, then President Obama and Vice-President Biden were made aware by CIA Director John Brennan of Clinton's attempts to smear Trump before her campaign released the infamous 'Steele Dossier' containing the salacious and false accusations.
Durham's findings are troubling and highlight the presence of political bias in both the DOJ and the FBI...as well as their undue negative influence operation on President Trump's tenure...coupled with the Democrats' repetition of those lies and a mainstream media complicity, spreading them as if they were fact, without ever investigating them, except for a few, such as Fox News.
Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of whether Trump and/or his campaign colluded with Russia leading up to the 2016 Presidential election determined that there was NO collusion in March of 2019. Furthermore, the DOJ Inspector General also found no wrongdoings by Trump or his associates, BUT did find plenty by the FBI. I reported extensively on "Russiagate" in Parts I and II here and here.
This post, Russiagate Part III, marks the end of this particular political hit job against a Presidential candidate, then President of the United States...a Republic that is supposed to be governed by its Constitution and Bill of Rights...which have been violated by a variety of intelligence leaders who sought to influence an election and delegitimize a duly-elected President.
Whether any consequences or accountability are ever delivered to the American public remains to be seen.
Although current FBI Director Christopher Wray claims that reforms have since been implemented in his department to prevent such interference, it's plain to see that someone did not get the memo...take a look at their interference via Twitter in the 2020 Presidential election (The Twitter Files) and their suppression of evidence relating to the Hunter Biden laptop scandal.
Considering the totality of all of these political interferences and false allegations involving Russia, one could argue that any potential U.S. and Russia relationship or alliance against potential threats from China were degraded...instead, the U.S. and NATO have been funding billions of dollars into assisting Ukraine defend itself from an invasion from Russia under Joe Biden's presidency (after defeating President Trump bid for a second term in 2020).
The United States' national security and economy have been destabilized, as a result, fighting high inflation and an economic crisis.
No doubt, Congress will have more to say on these issues in the coming days/weeks following their own investigations.
The following articles provide further insights regarding the Durham report...there are many more, and I will add them in due course.
* UPDATE May 18...
The Washington Post -- trying to "save face" for pushing the Trump-Russia collusion for years -- is continuing with its foolish losing narrative...
* UPDATE May 19...
" Not only did the impossible happen, but they all did it: the Clinton campaign, the FBI, and the media."
Friday, May 05, 2023
Thursday, May 04, 2023
Selling Spreads Across U.S. Regional Banks
* See UPDATES below...
Further to numerous articles that I've recently posted describing the collapse of several Regional Banks, the number of shareholders divesting themselves of shares in other Regional Banks is accelerating.
The following graphic contains a list of the top 10 holdings of the Regional Banking ETF, KRE. All of them are down, so far, today.
KRE has continued its plunge down to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic median price zone, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Inasmuch as it represents a snapshot of overall sentiment in the regional banks, I'd say the current state of these banks, in general, is pretty weak.
No one should be surprised that this particular sector of banks is weak, inasmuch as I warned about the state of U.S. banks, in general, in my post of April 10, 2021. As it happens at that time, KRE was close to making its all-time high of 78.81 (set in January of 2022), before it began to drop.
Even though its drop was initially choppy, it's been falling off a cliff since March of this year.
It's trading in a large sideways 'Chaos Zone.' It's had difficulty holding onto and increasing its gains made above 30.00 since January of 2013. It's also trading below its IPO opening price of 48.09 made in June of 2006...right before the 2007/08 Financial Crisis.
I anticipate that KRE will bounce around within that 'Chaos Zone' for some time. However, a drop and hold below 30.00 would signal much more serious consequences for the entire banking system, not only in the U.S., but globally, as well...as occurred in 2007/08/09.
N.B. Given these facts, it's odd that Fed Chairman J. Powell still insists that these banks are secure, when their representative ETF is plainly portraying great weakness...below that leading up to the 07/08 Financial Crisis!
Surely one has to wonder if that contagion will spread to the larger banks and the 29 banks deemed too-big-to-fail by the Financial Stability Board of the G20 in 2011. Note that Credit Suisse did, subsequently, fail, as described in my recent posts.
Today's ZeroHedge article has some answers in that regard.
* UPDATE May 5...
And...(lots of) food for thought...(HINT: keep your money safe!)...
* UPDATE May 6...
"It's spooky. Thousands of banks are underwater.
Let's not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the US banking system is potentially insolvent."
Thursday, April 06, 2023
De-Dollarization of U.S.$?
* See UPDATES below...
Several articles have been written recently about the possible de-dollarization of the U.S. Dollar, as shown below.
While I'm not an expert on the matter to say "Yay" or "Nay," I can provide the following monthly charts of the U.S. Dollar (DX) and Gold (GC).
The charts show an inverse correlation to each other. Furthermore, their major resistance and support levels are depicted thereon...as noted below:
- DX: 107.00, 100.00, and 90.00
- GC: 2000, 1800, 1600 and 1400
Very simply, keep an eye on whether or not DX is able to hold above the 100.00 level. If not, we could see it re-test 90.00, or lower, if GC holds above 2000 and gathers momentum. However, GC is nearing a bearish triple-top formation, so it may face stiff resistance around its prior high of 2089.20 set in August 2020. If it spikes through that level, with sustained force, we could see buyers pile into Gold and sell the Dollar, especially if traders/investors view the long-term Gold formation as a bullish cup & handle pattern.
BUT, I think we'd need to see some sort of major global catalyst occur to produce such a buying and selling frenzy. Exactly what that would be remains to be seen.
However, it's worth monitoring their movements over the coming weeks for hints of sustained rising volatility and potential chaos in these and other world markets (equities, ETFs, bonds, currencies, commodities, and crypto currencies).
N.B. For a further detailed analysis that I recently published on Gold, please refer to my post of December 6, 2022, wherein I outlined a technical case to be made for Gold to reach $3000, in accordance with one of Saxo Bank's "Outrageous Predictions for 2023."
* UPDATE April 20...
Countries dumping the U.S. Dollar...
So, will we see China's Yuan become the dominant international reserve currency, if the following global GDP projection materializes?
* UPDATE April 22...
As U.S. debt grows and the U.S. Dollar weakens, the value of Gold should increase over time...
* UPDATE April 24...
As a hedge against U.S. sanctions, many foreign countries are buying Gold...
* UPDATE APRIL 25...
In emerging markets, Gold is surpassing the U.S. Dollar, as a safe haven...
* UPDATE April 28...
More on de-dollarization...