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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Vintage Xmas

Vintage Xmas

ECONOMIC EVENTS

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Fri. Dec. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data

*  Fri. Dec. 10 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment

*  Fri. Dec. 10 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations

*  Tues. Dec. 14 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data

* Wed. Dec. 15 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data

* Wed. Dec. 15 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

* Thurs. Dec. 23 @ 10:00 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data

* Tues. Dec. 28 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence

* Wed. Jan. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes

* Fri. Jan. 7 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data

* Wed. Jan. 12 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.


Monday, December 06, 2021

SPX: Where Are We Now?

I recently wrote about the SPX and SPX:VIX ratio here.

In it, I mentioned that, "Volatility is rising and is fraught with large-scale whipsaw action...expect this to continue for the near future."

Take a look at the following graphic

Now compare it to the following monthly chart of the SPX.

I don't think anyone could be faulted if they labelled the SPX as being in the beginning of the "Blowoff Phase" (noted on the graphic) at or near the top of this extremely overextended long-term bull run...with "Public Money" most at risk.

The price has spiked far above the channel "mean" since it last touched it in May of 2020, and it will return at some point.

If so, and, as inflation continues to rise, look for volatility to continue into 2022 and watch for the "Smart Money" and "Institutional Investors" to divest themselves of high-risk assets (growth sectors), take profits, and hold cash for awhile, before rotating back into value sectors.

Perhaps Elon Musk had similar ideas when he sold some of his TSLA shares recently.

This link to Insiders Buying and Selling may provide such insight...as well as this link.

BUT, don't just take my word for it...someone else is predicting a blow-off to levels much lower than anticipated (article below)..."yowza" indeed.

And, as noted on the monthly chart above, the SPX channel "mean" is around 3200 at the moment, so a reversion to that level would wipe out gains from the past year and a half...who's prepared for that!

ZeroHedge excerpt


Monday, November 29, 2021

SPX: What A Difference A Day Makes...

...Or does it?

After its meteoric Black Friday plunge, the SPX gapped up on today's open, rallied a bit and has been basing for a couple of hours (as at 2:15 pm).

The catalyst for this purge was news of the new Omicron COVID-19 variant from the southern African countries.

This two-day SPX price action is shown on the following daily chart.

Friday's close landed on the lower moving average (21 MA offset into the future) of the William's Alligator formation. The upper moving average (8 MA offset into the future) has crossed below the middle one (13 MA offset into the future), hinting of further weakness and rising volatility. The Balance of Power indicator failed to make a new high on the last two SPX swing highs, warning of weakening buying.

Watch for the 8 MA to cross below the 21 MA to signal a further pullback may be forthcoming. A cross of the 13 MA below the 21 MA could very signal a larger correction is imminent...particularly if the price drops and holds below 4600.

The RSI indicator on the following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart failed to make a new swing high when the ratio made its last swing high on November 2, and continued to decline, hinting of weakness ahead for the SPX. Similarly, neither the MACD nor the PMO indicators made new swing highs, and they crossed over into bear territory shortly thereafter.

A drop and hold below 200 could see ratio price retest 150, or even 100, or lower, depending on the velocity of a further pullback on the SPX

In this regard, keep an eye on the Rate of Change indicator on the SPX (I've shown it with an input value of 1 period)...inasmuch as a drop and hold below the zero level will indicate increasing velocity to the downside and to what degree each day.

So, with the discovery of yet another variant, can anyone blame the scepticism displayed in the second tweet...especially when a prior tweet contains information that may be erroneous and premature? Both tweets were posted early Friday.

Trade with caution, inasmuch as the markets are prone to over and under-react to news, especially regarding COVID-19.

* UPDATE November 30...

Another day...another turnaround in markets to the downside...thanks to more public speculation on the latest COVID variant and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks this morning while testifying before the Senate Banking Committee regarding "transitory" inflation..."time to retire that word." 

His subsequent remarks regarding "wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases...sooner" added fuel to the fire.

At 12:10 pm ET, the SPX broke below Friday's low and hit a low of 4565...we'll see where it closes today.




Volatility is rising and is fraught with large-scale whipsaw action...expect this to continue for the near future.

The next Fed meeting is December 15...we'll see what happens.

* UPDATE December 1...

Another day...another (very big) plunge...

If the SPX:VIX ratio remains below 150, watch for this SPX pullback to continue...especially since all MAs have now formed a bearish crossover on the William's Alligator.


Tuesday, November 23, 2021

ZOOM: A One-Hit Wonder

I wrote about ZOOM's parabolic spike in my post of November 9, 2020...and predicted in a December 30 update that a drop and hold below 300 could see a further price decline.

Since then, ZOOM has made many attempts to bounce and hold above that level, but succumbed in September of this year, as shown on the weekly chart of ZM below.

It's dropped 66% since October 2020, and as long as its usefulness continues to decline as employees get back to work, I don't see it hitting major support until 100, or lower (to pre-pandemic levels).


Friday, November 05, 2021

Biden's Climate Change Agenda: Who Benefits?

Read on...




Will The Real 'San Fran Nan' Please Stand Up?

The two faces of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi...she can add that to her legacy when she retires after the 2022 midterm elections, as she tries to ram through trillions of dollars worth of spending bills through the House (which haven't been scored yet by the CBO and which have not yet been read by House Representatives and debated)...

P.S. The $1.2 Trillion Bill #1 ("infrastucture") passed in the House (already passed in the Senate)...Bill #2 ("social infrastucture") ($ cost yet to be determined and not yet passed in the Senate) is yet to come to the floor of the House for a vote.

Nancy Pelosi is on a massive and unprecedented socialist spending spree at taxpayers' expense before she retires with her pension to her millions, mansion, and private security...and escapes the fallout.

Add that to her legacy, as well.

😞😞😞


Wake up America! 


Monday, October 25, 2021

BIDEN: Is He Or Isn't He...

* See UPDATE below...

Is President Biden in charge of decision-making at the White House?

Voters say, 'No.'

And, so his ratings continue to plummet...

With this in mind, it's clear he does NOT have a mandate to ram through trillions of dollars worth of new spending proposals, or to raise taxes for most Americans.

In fact, he doesn't have a mandate to continue on with ALL of his agenda.

If America were governed under a parliamentary system, he may well be ousted on a vote of non-confidence by parliament under these current conditions...which have been created by his inept, chaotic and nonsensical policies and executive orders from Day One of his presidency, and which are major contributing factors in destabilizing national security, in my opinion.


More bad news has surfaced, once again, for President Biden, as more and more people become alarmed and lose confidence in his abilities and capabilities to run the country.

I'd say that this alarm has been building ever since he took office in January, amidst his bizarre, disjointed, chaotic, and sometimes completely incoherent, behaviour and actions...that, along with his continued refusal to answer media questions and accept accountability for his agenda, following his press statements.

If he's not accountable for his actions,
then who is???
Who's running the country???

"The President's town hall performance
is cause for concern."

* UPDATE November 7...

The news keeps getting worse for President Biden...and his agenda...and VP Harris...


Wake up America!


Thursday, October 21, 2021

My Pet Peeve: The Use Of The Phrase 'Transitory Inflation'

U.S. Fed members have repeatedly used the word 'transitory' when describing the current inflation envoronment, as it is currently massively pushing up the price of most goods and services in all sectors of the economy...many by double-digit percentage points.

I would posit that 'transitory inflation' cannot be determined to be transitory until the time arrives when prices stop rising and drop back to levels prior to their increases.

Instead, inflation is simply inflation, until it stops and reverses.

If prices never stop rising and reverse back, they will never be 'transitory.'

Unless these members have a crystal ball, they do NOT know whether today's inflation will last, get worse, or ever stop rising and revert back to prior levels.

Fed members are, therefore, misusing this phrase and mischaracterizing or inaccurately describing today's state of affairs.



Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Washington, D.C. Hooked On Nonsense 😞

Only in Washington, D.C. would you hear such nonsense (aka malarkey)...and be told to accept it as a fait accompli...




'Common sense' is a foreign concept in Washington...and is frustrating for outsiders...


And...there's plenty of (very expensive...and intrusive) political nonsense...


Your choice...accept it or call it out for what it is.


Friday, October 15, 2021

SPX Target...4485?

4485 is the approximate apex of two short-term trendlines on this daily chart of the SPX.

We'll see whether price makes it up that high, and if so, whether it will hold as resistance.

However, there are a couple of gaps below today's price, so we'll see what happens.

Keep an eye on the Balance of Power indicator for possible clues of gathering strength in either direction.

My post of August 27 provides further details of what I'm also monitoring with respect to the SPX.


TGIF...Biden Solves The Debt Crisis 🙄

Enjoy your weekend! 😊