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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Spring

Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC VENTS...
* Mon. Apr. 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Fri. Apr. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Apr. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Apr. 19 ~ U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday holiday
* Wed. Apr. 24 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9, Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6 & Mar. 22 came in at 44.7 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Wed. May 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

U.S. Bonds Inching Upwards

* See UPDATE below...

U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.


Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 "New Bull Market" level.

I anticipate that we'll likely see one last-gasp push in equities (SPX and other major indices) to, possibly a slightly higher all-time high, before we see a meaningful pullback/correction. Under that scenario, look for the SPX:VIX to break and hold above 200 and, potentially, retest the 280 all-time ratio high.

However, if the SPX:VIX fails to break and hold above 200 on an SPX rally, then I'd anticipate that we won't see a retest of the prior SPX high set in September 2018, but a fizzle before then, instead.

Either way, I anticipate that bonds will continue to gain ground...albeit perhaps slowly, but steadily.


Of note, is this astute observation from Slope of Hope's, Tim Knight...

Source: SlopeOfHope.com

I anticipate that a recession is on the way, if not this year, then likely next year...but likely slowing this year. I understand that Europe, China, Canada, and others are all slowing now. Watch the bond markets for clues and continued strength!

* UPDATE March 26...

Now this report from Investing.com...

Source: Investing.com

Monday, March 25, 2019

Asian Markets Falter...China's Shanghai Index At Major Resistance

Judging by one-day percentages lost, Monday's market action was a bad day for Asian markets, as shown below.


China's Shanghai Index is facing long-term major resistance at current levels, as shown on the following weekly chart of SSEC.

I've shown the input values of the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators as one period. They're both still below the zero level and have, in fact, been declining on recent attempts to move higher during March.

If price breaks and holds above, say, 3150,  I'd like to see both of these indicators also break and hold above zero, while making new highs, as well, to confirm the sustainability of any further meaningful advancement beyond that price.

Otherwise, look for this index to retest its last weekly swing low, or plunge lower, inasmuch as its stability at current levels is questionable.


And...now this...

Source: ZeroHedge.com

Saturday, March 23, 2019

From This Week's "Smile File"...Chaos Theory

A bit of humour for the weekend...


Media & Americans Duped! A Criminal Dud!

* See UPDATES below...

Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of alleged Russia-Trump campaign collusion has been concluded, as advised by Attorney General William Barr on Friday, my observations on what's been uncovered (in a nutshell) in that respect, are as follows.



What started out as political opposition research of Donald Trump and his political campaign in 2015/2016 by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and which was funnelled into the Obama State Department, DOJ and FBI, et al, through multiple sources and turned into a counter-intelligence investigation and subsequent Special Counsel investigation in search of criminal activities and leaked to multiple media outlets in order to, firstly, smear Trump and his chances of being elected as U.S. President, then, to hamstring his presidency, once elected, was, three years later, finally exposed for exactly what it was...a political vendetta and smear campaign and not a criminal matter.

Oppo Research ⇒ Criminal Investigation ⇒ Political Vendetta ⇒ Duped ⇒ Dud!

More on this entire process will be revealed by the U.S. Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, once he completes his separate ongoing internal investigation of numerous DOJ and FBI officials (and any others), which may be released in the next three months, or so.

So, this unabashed, unrelenting three-year political and media anti-Trump smear campaign and legal probe (which was based on salacious and unverified material, according to former FBI Director, James Comey) may end up producing unwanted consequences for the perpetrators involved in this entire complex process...and there could be many people exposed in this scheme. Whether any will be criminally indicted and prosecuted by current DOJ officials remains to be seen. No doubt, there will be much new information to come in the days/weeks ahead, in this regard.

I wonder what damage (not only on domestic matters, but also foreign policy issues) has already been inflicted on the President's ability to properly and fully discharge his duties to the American public, as he was duly elected and sworn in to carry out, because of this smear campaign. Meanwhile, the political chess game will likely continue through to 2020 and beyond, if President Trump is re-elected. At what point do endless and aimless political investigations become political harassment and constitutional overreach?

♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟

Source: WSJ.com

Source: FoxNews.com (click link to view video)

Source: NationalReview.com

Source: TheHill.com

✵✵✵✵✵✵✵

Source: FoxNews.com...to view video, click here


* UPDATE March 24...

Attorney General Barr's 4-page summary letter (below) of Special Counsel Mueller's report was released today (the yellow highlight on page 1 is mine)...of note, are the following excerpts...

"...the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign."

"...Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel's investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense. Our determination was made without regard to, and is not based on, the constitutional considerations that surround the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting president."





Several reactions are as follows...






Source: WSJ.com


Source: NYPost.com

Can we now please put this matter pertaining to the investigation of President Trump and members of his campaign to rest and move on? The Special Counsel's work is done, as was instructed by DOJ Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein nearly two years ago.

* UPDATE March 25...


For two years, President Trump has been convicted by, not only many political opponents, but most of the media, as well, over this issue. What's happened to good old-fashioned investigative journalism...due process...the presumption of innocence...and justice? And, more importantly, will those ever be restored? After what happened to Justice Kavanaugh last year, I have my doubts.

Source: NewYorkPost.com

Senator Graham discusses Attorney General Barr's summary letter of Special Counsel Mueller's report and what's now necessary for a separate investigation to be conducted into the origins of the investigation into President Trump and his presidential campaign...this may, ultimately, tie in with the work currently underway by Inspector General Horowitz, as I mentioned above...more will be revealed in the days/weeks ahead.

Source: Reuters.com...to view video, click here

Friday, February 22, 2019

Contraction Mode Deepens For Germany's Manufacturing PMI

* See UPDATE below...

Germany's Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.

Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month's release (March 22) for possible clues.


The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.


The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.

With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.


Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I've shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.


* UPDATE March 22...

Oops...contraction deepens! The next release date is April 24...