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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

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***2024***
* Wed. March 6 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
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* Wed. March 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
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*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

2024 MARKET FORECAST: 'Black Swan Event' In 2024 It Is Then...

Perhaps this CBS news reporter's prediction of a 'Black Swan Event' for 2024 is not so far off...either when it comes to U.S. national security, or in the stock markets...especially when one considers the reluctance of traders/investors to convincingly push markets above the December 2021 high for the past two years, as shown on the following monthly S&P 500 Index (SPX) chart.


Perhaps such reluctance stems from Joe Biden's epic multiple failures as a leader since he became President in January of 2021, about which I've written extensively...some of these include:


CONCLUSIONS:

As I hypothesized in my 2023 Market Forecast, and, as long as Joe Biden remains President, I think we'll see more whipsaw, volatile moves occur in all markets in 2024, until such a 'Black Swan event' does occur...particularly since it's a presidential election year and each one has become more contentious and controversial. 

Furthermore, this article highlights the extreme importance of this election, inasmuch as global instability is at stake. 

N.B. By the way, add to this, the damning Special Counsel's conclusions and report (released to the public on February 8, 2024) -- where he highlighted President Biden's mental unfitness to stand trial for his willful and unlawful retention and disclosure of classified materials when he was a private citizen during his post Vice-Presidency -- and you have a recipe for a global disaster as long as he remains President.

Any push to new highs may be met with a swift retreat to new lows...possibly to retest 3200, or lower.

HAPPY NEW YEAR AND BEST OF LUCK IN 2024!


Monday, December 25, 2023

Merry Christmas 2023 & Happy New Year 2024!

Thanks to all who visited my Blog this year, to those who sent their kind emails, and to the generous editors of those websites who published my articles.

All the best for 2024!


Friday, October 06, 2023

From Today's "Smile File"...Sticky Situations 😏

Sometimes it doesn't pay to "walk and chew gum at the same time." 

In other words...when you're chopping wood, chop wood! πŸ€”

Thursday, October 05, 2023

October Bites The SPX

* See UPDATES below...

Notwithstanding the bearish Head & Shoulders formation on the following daily chart of the SPX, its recent plunge below the neckline in the latter part of September, and its subsequent retest and drop lower, it's hovering above major support around 4200.

Also depicted on the daily, weekly and monthly charts is the Williams Alligator technical indicator, which shows 3 moving averages, offset into the future.

Take a close look at the weekly chart

A drop and hold below 4200, followed by a crossover of both the green and red MAs below the blue MA would signal further weakness ahead for the SPX, and possibly a retest of 3600, or lower to 3200.

This is one indicator worthwhile monitoring over the coming days/weeks, on all three timeframes, all of which are forecasting further weakness...along with President Biden's disastrous, regressive, reckless, and punitive "Bidenomics" (economic and energy) policies...and, this insightful history lesson on "why previously successful societies implode," as is currently happening in the United States under Biden's so-called leadership, with its descent into fantasies while denying realities, threats, and solutions.

Wake up, America!


If you think such a scenario may be far-fetched, I'd refer you to my most recent post on August 31 in connection with the SPX and investment cycles...that one depicts a much worse plunge that may be in store for U.S. equities over the coming weeks/months.

SPX Daily

SPX Weekly

SPX Monthly

* UPDATE October 6...


"Bidenocchio" strikes again...Joe Biden stepped in front of microphones this morning to brag and lie about "creating" a record number of jobs in September.

However, it pays to read the actual detailed jobs reports, before accepting Biden's version of reality...always. πŸ€”

Meanwhile, allegations and video of his abuse towards his dog surface...horrible, if true, and at total odds with his, so-called, "lovable Uncle Joe" public image that he loves to portray.

So, always check under the hood before buying a used car...lest you end up stuck with a broken-down, unreliable old clunker...or worse!

* UPDATE October 22...

As Joe Biden's "Bidenomics" policies and the economy are imploding, they're also failing to win support with young voters, Blacks and Latinos, who are, instead throwing their support behind Donald Trump, as they compete to win the presidency race in 2024.

As I described above, keep an eye on the following weekly chart of the SPX.

We're about to see an imminent bearish crossover of both shorter-term William's Alligator MAs below the longer-term MA on this timeframe.

A drop and hold below 4200, combined with this double crossover will signal further weakness ahead for the SPX.

* UPDATE October 23...

The SPX briefly dropped below 4200, before it closed back above at 4217.04.

As well, the Williams Alligator MAs have now formed a bearish crossover on the weekly timeframe....keep an eye on 4200.

* UPDATE October 27...

By 2:07 pm ET today, the SPX plunged to 4107.71 -- likely regarding these developments in the Hamas/Israel war -- to continue its drop and break below 4200, which began on November 25.

See my comments above for the next major support levels/targets.


* UPDATE November 16...

This graphic needs no explanation...πŸ˜•

And...the "Bidenomics" bashing continues...with good reason...


Tuesday, September 12, 2023

PART V: Joe Biden's Presidential Battle For Survival: BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY

N.B. Parts I, II, III and IV regarding President Joe Biden's massive policy blunders and scandals are described in detail hereherehere, and here, respectively, for your edification.

Due to the extensive length of the prior articles, I've had to break them up into parts. Part V begins, as follows, with the latest scandal, Biden Impeachment Inquiry.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced this morning that he is directing the House to begin an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, based on a number of facts and alleged crimes they've already uncovered, which merit further investigation, such as abuse of power, obstruction, and corruption.

No doubt this will put a crimp in Joe's "Bidenomics" claim to fame, as well as his planned second-term Presidential re-election bid in 2024.

Stay tuned for eventual fireworks and more shocking revelations.


* UPDATE September 13...

You can thank President Biden's "Bidenomics" for this inflation hot mess...

And, it looks like the left-leaning press has finally begun to stop covering up Biden's non-stop lies and incompetence. Too bad they didn't wise up and fess up to the truth three years ago!

So, how much longer before Joe resigns? πŸ€”


ZeroHedge excerpt

However, it seems that the Biden White House Legal Counsel's office is now trying to dictate what the press should say about the impeachment inquiry.

A 'chilling' move, indeed...


ZeroHedge excerpt

There is a great deal of pushback from a variety of States against Biden's 'green energy' push, along with the disappearance of farmland and adequate food supply.

We'll see how much voters want affordable and reliable energy and sufficient food, versus energy blackouts and hunger, when they vote for President in 2024

It's really just as simple as that. πŸ€”


* UPDATE September 14...

Another day...another scandal for Joe surfaced today for him and his political and media minions to spin, with three federal criminal indictments charged against his son pertaining to the illegal purchase and possession of a gun while using narcotics.

We'll see whether Joe's son, Hunter, ever does any prison time, inasmuch as most ordinary citizens have had to do, who've been charged with the same crimes...or, will he get special treatment, once again, because of the Biden family name, and walk free? πŸ€”

I won't hold my breath on the outcome.

* UPDATE September 15...

Finally...they're saying the quiet part out loud -- their 'useful idiot' has morphed into, simply, an idiot -- and, now they're in a panic as their 'shadow leader' is fading into the shadows and they have no credible replacement.

The coming weeks should be 'interesting'...and could get ugly...politically...

In the meantime...


* UPDATE September 28...

The first of many Biden impeachment inquiry hearings began today in the House, where mountains of evidence were produced and testimony heard before a televised audience.

Things are heating up for President Biden...


ZeroHedge excerpt

More details on the hearing here.

* UPDATE September 30...

Ten reasons for an impeachment inquiry are explained in detail in the following constitutional scholar's article...Congress has an obligation to conduct proper oversight into an administration and the President...


Jonathan Turley excerpt

* UPDATE October 3...

Just how dependent are the Bidens on Chinese money?...


* UPDATE October 6...


"Bidenocchio" strikes again...Joe Biden stepped in front of microphones this morning to brag and lie about "creating" a record number of jobs in September. 

However, it pays to read the actual detailed jobs reports, before accepting Biden's version of reality...always. πŸ€”

Meanwhile, allegations and video of his abuse towards his dog surface...horrible, if true, and at total odds with his, so-called"lovable Uncle Joe" public image that he loves to portray.

So, always check under the hood before buying a used car...lest you end up stuck with a broken-down, unreliable old clunker...or worse!

* UPDATE October 7...

Just weeks after President Biden released $6 Billion in frozen Iranian funds in a prisoner-swap deal with Iran, Palestinian terrorists (Hamas) attacked Israel, [allegedly with backing from Iran (subsequently confirmed in this report)], firing thousands of missiles from Gaza and, via a ground, sea and air incursion and assault, savagely slaughtering hundreds of Jews [men, women (raped and maimed first), children (burned alive), at least 40 babies (beheaded), the elderly, the disabled, pets, and Israeli soldiers] in their homes and on the streets, desecrating their bodies and parading them with Isis-like brutality, as well as dragging many civilian hostages, including military personnel, into Gaza

Apparently the videos taken of these incidents and posted online by Hamas depict horror scenes reminiscent of the German Nazi reign of terror that sought to eridicate the Jewish people, as has been, and is, the declared vow of Iran's Supreme Leader and Iran's terrorist proxies in Arab countries surrounding Israel (such as Lebanon, Sumeria, Judea, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, etc.).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that Israel is now "at war with Hamas."

Iran has congratulated the Palestinians for their attack. Whether Iran's other terrorist proxies operating in Lebanon and other surrounding countries will follow suit and attack Israel, as well, remains to be seen.

By the way, if there is any doubt as to who is actually behind this masacre and other attacks over the years against Israel, the following quote from the private investigator in the final episode of the PBS Masterpiece who-done-it mystery, "Magpie Murders," will reveal the answer: "When there's only one explanation that makes sense, then that is all the proof that you require." So, use your own common sense to draw your own clear conclusions...and keep your wits about you at all times.

When will Biden learn that appeasement towards Iran does not work? Not only has he released billions of dollars back to Iran, he has not enforced the oil sanctions put in place by the previous administration, which has enriched Iran by around $60-80+ Billion since he took office 2 1/2 years ago...of course, they're using it for warfare to advance their cause.

His foreign policies have been weak and dangerous for America and its allies around the world.

Just take a look at the chaos he caused in Afghanistan...and the billions of dollars in American military equipment left in that country during its retreat. He was on holiday during that callosal failure. And, his failure to equip Ukranians with the weapons they needed at the outset of Russia's invasion has allowed that war to drag on unabated, even after sending them over $100 Billion of American taxpayer money in equipment and aid.

His own lack of border enforcement at America's southern border has allowed it to be breached by 8+ million people from 161 countries around the world, plus 1.6 million "gotaways." How many terrorists have entered illegally, who will stage another "911" on America's soil? More on this here.

All of Joe Biden's domestic and foreign policies have been dangerous and destructive, as well as a threat to U.S. national security...and these need to form part of the Impeachment Inquiry that was launched in the House of Representatives, as described above.

Wake up, America!

Keep an eye on the price of WTI Crude Oil over the coming weeks, as it's likely that this war will escalate.

P.S. More updates on the war hereherehere, herehere, here ("...the overt support for Hamas killers by the diversity, equity and inclusion crowd on a lot of campuses exposes to Americans the real moral and intellectual rot in higher education"), hereherehere and here...and, finally, here.


ZeroHedge excerpt








Yes, Iran should take the Gaza refugees, since they sponsor Hamas in their effort to annihilate Israel......

* UPDATE October 8...

The "smartest man" that Joe Biden knows...his son, Hunter...

* UPDATE October 11...

A dilemma awaits Special Counsel Robert Hur in connection with his investigation of Joe Biden's classified documents case.

Will Biden be be persecuted and indicted, just like his current political rival, former President Donald Trump

Don't hold your breath. πŸ€”

* UPDATE October 14...

I'd say that soaring U.S. sovereign credit risk is a 'Feature' of "Bidenomics," wouldn't you?

America can't afford 4 more years of Joe Biden (from November 2024), let alone 1 1/2 more! πŸ’ΈπŸ†˜️

* UPDATE October 17...

The conflicts in the Middle East are blowing up and spreading to other countries and embassies around the world, as President Biden travels to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Netenyahu on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, WTI Crude Oil is spiking tonight, once again.

I don't have a good feeling on all of this...especially with Biden sticking his nose in Israel's business of defending itself and, potentially, putting any restraints on Israel's military capabilities and rights...particularly while he's been busy appeasing Iran from 'Day One' in office.

P.S. How the meeting went on Wednesday, and Biden's subsequent message delivered from Israel before departing for the U.S., are described in this article

And, as I speculated, he failed to calm fears in the Middle East and around the world that a wider regional war (or even a global one) may be imminent

Furthermore, the three leaders from Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians of the West Bank refused to meet with him, after agreeing to do so before he went to Israel.

So, I'm left wondering what was the purpose of his trip and why did he go, only to be humiliated by the Arab leaders in the process?

* UPDATE October 19...

President Biden's prime-time Oval Office Address to the Nation was, simply, weak, disjointed and lacked clarity of purpose...very disappointing at deterring further terrorist attacks against America's allies, much less on its own soil from the illegal immigration that Biden has allowed to flood in across the southern border since he took office.

Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East is escalating, as described here.

* UPDATE October 20...

Further Congressional investigations have uncovered more evidence of Joe Biden's influence peddling scheme, while searching through a variety of subpoenaed Biden family banking records covering the past number of years.

There is a lot more to come from the House Oversight Committee (and two other House Committees who are investigating other potential Biden criminal activities)...

* UPDATE October 21...

It looks like another serious financial crisis is underway in Joe Biden's America.

Brace yourselves!

* UPDATE October 25...

Big news...

More on this topic is described in the following article...

You can add Joe Biden's failure to secure the southern border to his growing list of dangerous and destructive policies since he took office...which has, no doubt let in terrorists bent on destroying America.


Zerohedge excerpt

Zerohedge excerpt

* UPDATE October 27...

You can thank Joe Biden for this mess...

* UPDATE October 28...

So, China flexes its muscles, while President Biden is distracted with:

  • Russia's war in Ukraine,
  • Hamas' invasion from Gaza and its cruel massacre of Israelis, as well as Americans and other foreigners, in Israel,
  • the threatening invasion of Israel by Lebanon's Hezbollah, and
  • Iran's proxy attacks on U.S. military bases in Syria and Iraq, as well as in Israel,

and does nothing to China in return?

When will Biden stop soft-peddling his responses to these harassment events, attacks, hostage-taking, and gruesome murders by world dictators?

His appeasement tactics are NOT working! Nor did they work for former President Obama while Joe was Vice-President.

If he's supposed to be such a smart guy who's been in politics for the past 50 years at senior levels, why is he continuing to repeat his same disastrous foreign policy mistakes...as was evident by his chaotic and botched military retreat from Afghanistan?

* UPDATE October 29...

PRESIDENT BIDEN EXPOSED: A disturbing look at central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) -- coming to America -- courtesy of Joe Biden -- via a stealth Executive Order (No. 14067)...

* UPDATE October 31...

WOW...Joe Biden's multiple pseudonyms were very busy emailing (who? and why?) during his 8-year term as Vice-President under former President Obama!

I wonder what they'll reveal when House investigators finally get their hands on them...πŸ‘€

It looks like Janet Yellen is incapable of doing her job, whether as former Federal Reserve Chairman, or her current job as Treasury Secretary...another reason to question Joe Biden's leadership and decision-making skills, or lack thereof.

* UPDATE November 3...

There are NO TREATS in Joe Biden's "Bidenomics" plan...ONLY TRICKS...

* UPDATE November 4...

The following article highlights another glaring example of Joe Biden's failed policies, which is contributing to the disastrous national security crisis for America that began under his reckless leadership -- the depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (purely for political gains) -- and his refusal to correct his incoherent policy for its replenishment.

* UPDATE November 5...

Well said...more high-cost Biden gobbledygook exposed...

* UPDATE November 10...

More Biden lies...with no consequences...

* UPDATE November 12...

It seems that wherever there has been Biden involvement, there has been a two-tier justice system in place...for decades...

* UPDATE November 13...

More legalese mumbo-jumbo from Biden's DOJ as it pertains to their so-called "investigation" of Hunter Biden...is anybody fooled? πŸ˜’

* UPDATE November 16...

This graphic needs no explanation...πŸ˜•

And...the "Bidenomics" bashing continues...with good reason...

And...another glaring example of the two-tier justice system is, unashamedly, on full display, once again...

Good question! 😏

* UPDATE December 20...

It seems that Democrats are extreme anti-democracy zealots when it comes to all things regarding former President Donald Trump...

The oft-cited "No one is above the law" phrase uttered by Democrats, including Joe Biden, when it comes to former President Donald Trump, must be applied equally to Democrats, as well as to Joe Biden and the Biden family

We'll see if Joe's AG agrees...

* UPDATE February 8, 2024...

If Joe Biden is mentally incompetent to stand trial, as Special Counsel Robert Hur has written in his damning report (released to the public today) following his investigation of Biden's unlawful and willful retention and disclosure of classified materials when he was a private citizen after his Vice-Presidency (which risked serious damage to America's national security and which were taken during his time as a Senator and as Vice-President), why should Americans believe that he is fit to continue serving as President of the United States of America?

Furthermore, President Biden just proved Hur's conclusions correct in his subsequent press conference this evening, which did not go well, as reported here.

We'll see whether his cabinet decides to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove him from office for the benefit of the country's national security interests.

Furthermore, this bombshell revelation by Mr. Hur may, ultimately, form part of Congress' current impeachment investigation of President Biden.

In any event, Americans' trust of President Biden's abilities to continue to carry out his duties will, no doubt, be damaged...as well as the trust of other world leaders...allies and foes, alike.

* UPDATE February 11...

Joe Biden...serial liar...


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE February 12...

Another day...another poll...confirms what Americans have known for several years...that Joe Biden is not fit to be President.

Meanwhile, if he is fit, as Biden is now so desperately trying to convince the public that he's fine, then he should have been charged with crimes, which were described in detail in Special Counsel Hur's report (mentioned above).

Otherwise, Americans can see that there is, indeed, a two-tier system of justice when it comes to Biden's DOJ massive legal vendetta against former President Donald Trump.

And, the fact that Joe has resorted to cringe-worthy self-promotion on his own banned (for Federal employees) TikTok app, amplifies his desperation to somehow try and prove his fitness as President to that crowd of users.

Exactly how is that not in breach of the country's national security interests?

This is just another example of his epic bad decisions and multiple failures as a incompetent leader, as I specified in this post.

* UPDATE February 13...

More Biden White House chaos revealed...

"Bottom line, America is being led by a man who's too senile to prosecute, and whose administration is completely dysfunctional."

* UPDATE February 19...

More Biden serial lying exposed...

* UPDATE February 20...

Isn't it amazing to think that Joe Biden's presidency is being sustained on "constant deception and falsehood"...in other words, all things delusional and nonsensical...

* UPDATE March 5...

"Treason" and "Biden" in the same news headline...😲

And, there are these damning comments by Elon Musk on this issue, as well as on Joe Biden's reckless open-border policy, in general.


WAKE UP, AMERICA!!!


* UPDATED March 17...

President Biden's (and his global cronies) idea of 'heaven on earth' has backfired...let 'them' eat their own bugs and leave people alone to make their own sensible food, job, home, car, health, safety/security, education, and political choices...etc...etc...etc...in accordance with Maslow's Heirarchy of Needs...πŸ‘€


Joe Biden's lawless America...planned or incidental? πŸ€”

* UPDATE March 18...

The results of Biden's nonsensical economic policies...your part-time President (who, himself, has been away from the White House on vacation 40% of the time during the past 3 years and 2 months)...



~~~~~~~

N.B. Remember...a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for VP Kamala Harris, inasmuch as she would automatically become President if anything were to happen to Biden, if he is elected to serve a second term.