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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...


...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...




* Mon. Apr. 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Fri. Apr. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Apr. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Apr. 19 ~ U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday holiday
* Wed. Apr. 24 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9, Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6 & Mar. 22 came in at 44.7 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Wed. May 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events


Saturday, March 23, 2019

From This Week's "Smile File"...Chaos Theory

A bit of humour for the weekend...

Media & Americans Duped! A Criminal Dud!

* See UPDATE below...

Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of alleged Russia-Trump campaign collusion has been concluded, as advised by Attorney General William Barr on Friday, my observations on what's been uncovered (in a nutshell) in that respect, are as follows.

What started out as political opposition research of Donald Trump and his political campaign in 2015/2016 by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and which was funnelled into the Obama State Department, DOJ and FBI, et al, through multiple sources and turned into a counter-intelligence investigation and subsequent Special Counsel investigation in search of criminal activities and leaked to multiple media outlets in order to, firstly, smear Trump and his chances of being elected as U.S. President, then, to hamstring his presidency, once elected, was, three years later, finally exposed for exactly what it was...a political vendetta and smear campaign and not a criminal matter.

Oppo Research ⇒ Criminal Investigation ⇒ Political Vendetta ⇒ Duped ⇒ Dud!

More on this entire process will be revealed by the U.S. Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, once he completes his separate ongoing internal investigation of numerous DOJ and FBI officials (and any others), which may be released in the next three months, or so.

So, this unabashed, unrelenting three-year political and media anti-Trump smear campaign and legal probe (which was based on salacious and unverified material, according to former FBI Director, James Comey) may end up producing unwanted consequences for the perpetrators involved in this entire complex process...and there could be many people exposed in this scheme. Whether any will be criminally indicted and prosecuted by current DOJ officials remains to be seen. No doubt, there will be much new information to come in the days/weeks ahead, in this regard.

I wonder what damage (not only on domestic matters, but also foreign policy issues) has already been inflicted on the President's ability to properly and fully discharge his duties to the American public, as he was duly elected and sworn in to carry out, because of this smear campaign. Meanwhile, the political chess game will likely continue through to 2020 and beyond, if President Trump is re-elected. At what point do endless and aimless political investigations become political harassment and constitutional overreach?


Source: WSJ.com

Source: FoxNews.com (click link to view video)

Source: NationalReview.com

Source: TheHill.com


* UPDATE March 24...

Attorney General Barr's 4-page summary letter (below) of Special Counsel Mueller's report was released today...

Several reactions are as follows...

Source: WSJ.com

Can we now please put this matter pertaining to the investigation of President Trump and members of his campaign to rest and move on? The Special Counsel's work is done, as was instructed by DOJ Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein nearly two years ago.

Friday, February 22, 2019

Contraction Mode Deepens For Germany's Manufacturing PMI

* See UPDATE below...

Germany's Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.

Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month's release (March 22) for possible clues.

The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.

The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.

With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.

Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I've shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.

* UPDATE March 22...

Oops...contraction deepens! The next release date is April 24...

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Potential Head & Shoulders Forming on Amazon

Amazon (AMZN) is forming a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern, as shown on the following weekly chart.

We'll see whether it plays out, in view of their decision today (Thursday) to abandon their project to build their second headquarters in Long Island, Queens...at a loss of 25,000 job for New York. Their statement is here and it describes the political opposition it received.

Keep an eye on the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC), and average true range (ATR) indicators for direction and velocity purposes going forward. I've shown their input value as one period to illustrate that more clearly.

Core Retail Sales m/m data released today (Thursday) were drastically in the red...a harbinger of things to come, or just a blip? One to watch over the coming months. Another month like this last one could hit AMZN and other retail giants hard.

Happy Valentine's Day

Saturday, February 09, 2019

An Ideological Path To A Liquidity Crisis In U.S. Markets

Look out, corporate and middle America!

There's a new economic and capitalism threat occupying your (Congressional) House...namely, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has been busy sucking all the oxygen out of Democrats' House with the unveiling of her socialism-on-steroids "Green New Deal" this past week. As 2020 Democrats jump on board with her plan/proposed bill, Democratic House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi sarcastically referred to it as the "Green Dream."

If you want to create a liquidity crisis in U.S. equity markets, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. If you want to create an economic crisis, in America, as well as the rest of the world, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. Foreign and domestic investment in the U.S. will disappear.

As it is, U.S. and global markets have been fragile and volatile for over a year, and absurd political games such as this will only suck the liquidity out and increase volatility at an ever-accelerating pace. Offshore U.S. corporate monies will never be repatriated and invested in America. In fact, more funds will be hidden in offshore accounts under this scenario. This deal is a clever counter-measure to President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted on December 20, 2017. When companies fail to bring offshore monies to the U.S. by the 2020 election, Democrats will claim that the President's policies haven't worked and that Americans should, instead, embrace their ideology. Any benefits gained from this Act will be shattered. At that time, I was pondering whether the Dow 30 Index would reach 25,000. In fact, it reached a high of 26,951.81 in early October 2018 (just prior to the U.S. midterm elections) before it started to tank, and, interestingly enough, it's hovering just above 25,100, as of Friday's close.

You can see from the following weekly chart of the MSCI World Global Index that price rallied, after touching major support at 1800, and is now sitting at a critical intersection of a long-term uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork median and major price resistance level around 2030.

Inasmuch as many Democrats are on board with this destructive deal (adding to political headwinds as I described in this post) and not many Republicans and the business world have dismissed it yet, no doubt more support for it will continue to grow, especially among Millennials.

Just wait until the big bank executives are hauled before Democrat Maxine Waters' Financial Services Committee (on which Ms. Ocasia-Cortez sits as a member) and watch this political farce continue.

Keep an eye on the MSCI World Global Index, because if that begins to implode, you'll see U.S. markets follow suit.

Perhaps GOLD will become the favoured hedge for traders/investors against such a catastrophic scenario...and we'll see the rally accelerate, as I described recently in this post.

Now it looks like Democrats (including Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation) may be faced with serious investigations involving potential collusion with Russia and threats to national security on a variety of matters in the coming weeks, according to this latest report from The Hill's John Solomon. It's anticipated that the U.S. Inspector General will release a report by late spring/early summer in this regard, along with FISA abuse by the DOJ and FBI leading up to the 2016 election and beyond. As well, Senator Lindsay Graham will be investigating these issues, along with this FISA abuse, via his Senate Judiciary Committee.

2019 likely won't be a good year for Democrats as more is uncovered and revealed, including hypocritical racism and selective political support/non-support for alleged "Me Too" victims, which appears to be dependent upon which political party the accused is affiliated with...remember this fiasco during the (then) Judge Kavanaugh (now Justice Kavanaugh) Senate Judiciary hearings?

And, thanks to active socialist resistance to Amazon's proposal to build a second headquarters in Long Island, Queens from New York politicians such as Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Amazon are abandoning their project, which would have created 25,000 jobs...their statement is below.

And, the knock-on effect has erupted...

Source: Bloomberg.com

We'll see if Virginia's politicians are any friendlier towards and supportive of capitalism than New York's...

So, Democrats' far-left socialist movement is already underway and is, seemingly, effective at stopping capitalism in its tracks.

Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell is planning to force a vote in the Senate on this "Green New Deal." We'll see if Senate Democrats and their 2020 Presidential candidates will "put their money where their mouth is" to support it...or not.

And, is this constitutional overreach by Democrats?...take a look at this Associated Press article, "House Panel Seeks Documents on 81 People Linked to Trump." How will House Democrats find any time to draft legislation over the next two years that actually benefits Americans when all their attention is focused on these shenanigans?

Source: washingtonexaminer.com


REALITY CHECK: A good reason to NOT adopt the "Green New Deal"...it would add trillions to the already ballooning $22 Trillion National Debt!

They're coming for your cows...time to stock up on Big Macs! 😊
Judge Jeanine's Opening Statement Feb. 9, 2019 on Fox News TV's "Justice With Judge Jeanine"

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

GOLD: Set To Explode Higher

Gold has been under quiet accumulation since last August, as shown on the following daily chart.

The moving averages formed a new bullish Golden Cross several days ago. The RSI and MACD indicators are in uptrend, the RSI is still above 50.00, and the STOCH has just made a bullish crossover.

Price on the following daily ratio chart of GOLD versus its Volatility Index (GOLD:GVZ) has just broken above its near-term major resistance around the 120.00 level.

Both the MACD and PMO indicators have put in a higher swing high, while the RSI has yet to do the same; however, it's still above the 50.00 level.

Should the ratio price remain above 120.00 and continue its rally, I'd like to see the RSI also make a new swing high. If that scenario occurs, there's a very good chance that GOLD could explode much higher in the days/weeks ahead. Near-term minor price resistance is around the 1360 level, followed by 1400 and 1550 major resistance, as shown on the weekly chart below.