WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

crocuses

crocuses

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Mar. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Mar. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Mar. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Tues. Mar. 16 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Mar. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Apr. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Thursday, February 25, 2021

In The Grand Scheme Of Things: US10YT

After today's gain, the US10YT now sits just above a 10-year major resistance level around 1.50%, as shown on the following monthly chart.

In the grand scheme of things (since 1955), it's still well below normal.

Upside major resistance levels/targets are 2.00% and 3.00%...but a drop and hold below 1.50% could see it return to 1.00%

We may see it consolidate for awhile before its trend becomes clearer, but currently, momentum favours buyers.

Keep an eye on the short-to-medium-term movements of the DX and the XLF for clues, as I've described here and here. A rising US dollar and a falling Financials sector may see buyers continue to support the US10YT.


Wednesday, February 24, 2021

US Dollar At Major Inflection Point

The US Dollar (DX) is hovering precariously just above a major inflection point at 90.00, as shown on the following monthly chart.

A drop and hold below that level could see the DX plunge to around 85.00, or even 80.00, in short order.

However, should the Financials ETF (XLF) drop, as described in my most recent post, we may see DX reverse course and rally towards 95.00, or even 100.00...keep an eye on the XLF for clues.


U.S. Financials Rally Seems Parabolic

The rise of the Financials ETF (XLF) from March 2020 seems rather parabolic when compared with prior rallies over the past two decades, as shown on the following monthly chart.

A pullback may be just around the corner.

A drop and hold below major support at 30.00 could see this sector plummet to around 25.00, or, even 20.00, in short order.

Keep an eye on my post on the US Dollar as a cross-reference for clues.


What One Week Of Fame Looks Like

Who bought at the top? 😕


Tuesday, February 23, 2021

S&P 500 Index Monthly Pivot Points For February 2021

The following pivot point calculations and chart are provided to illustrate a variety of support and resistance levels/price targets on the monthly timeframe for the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

The calculations below are based on the high/low/close of January's candle for February's levels/price targets.


The following monthly chart of the SPX shows that price nearly hit R2 (3957), so far, this month. 

There are only three trading days left; however, we might see a final push up to somewhere in between the 1.50% external Fibonacci level at 3994 and R3 at 4044.

However, a drop and hold below R1 at 3835 may see price drop to somewhere around the PP at 3749, or lower.


Saturday, January 23, 2021

Thursday, January 21, 2021

Farewell, President Trump...Buona Fortuna, 45! PLUS: Impeachment #2

* See UPDATES below...

This post has it all...thrills, spills and political theatre...

  • Former President Donald Trump leaves office after failing to be re-elected for a second term
  • 2020 election "fortification" versus election "rigging"
  • House Impeachment #2 and Senate Acquittal #2 of Mr. Trump
  • Capitol riot of January 6
  • Capitol security review
  • Future Republican leadership questions
  • America's future under the Biden administration 

Sunday, January 03, 2021

2020 Market Wrap-Up and 2021 Market Forecast: A Dimmer Sun?

Perhaps the most valuable commodity this year will be Vitamin D, thanks to Bill Gates' proposal to "dim the sun" and his support for large-scale, endless lockdowns. 😏

My Annual 2020 Market Wrap-Up and 2021 Market Forecast is extremely short this year. We live in an upside-down world, propped up by central banks and government stimulus...likely to continue this year, thanks to the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic.


The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained a total of 1,568.34 points from the low to the high of 2020, and the Balance of Power (BOP) is still firmly in the hands of Buyers, as shown on the following monthly chart

However, the BOP for December is a fraction below November's, so the buying was slightly more subdued last month and may portend a slower pace in the coming months.

The next major resistance is represented by the 1.382% External Fibonacci level at 3850.57. Major support lies below at the "Big Round Number" of 3600.

Barring another retest of 3600, as we saw during three weeks of November, I'd expect the buying to continue up to 3850.57, or higher, in the coming weeks/months.

However, stocks may be getting overvalued, as shown on the following ZeroHedge chart. Perhaps 2021 may usher in more stock splits...or a 10-20% correction.

We'll see what happens...but, keep an eye on the rate of buying/selling, as represented by the BOP indicator.


P.S.

By the way, the SPX "iceberg" is still afloat.


Friday, January 01, 2021

Happy New Year 2021!

Here's hoping 2021 ushers in better days ahead for everyone. Best wishes for good health, prosperity and good friends. 😊


Sunday, December 27, 2020

President Trump Signs COVID-19/Omnibus Bill With Proviso That Congress Make Amendments

At least the President is fighting for the average American.

We'll see if Congress is, as well, and follows through on these amendments...



At the time of posting this article, there has been muted reaction to this news in the US Futures markets. We'll see how the markets open on Monday.


Monday, December 21, 2020

What's In Store For Bitcoin In 2021?

It seems Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is fond of parabolic spikes...spike #2 is well underway from the March low, as price is approaching the first external Fibonacci level (1.382%) at 26259.60 (upside target and first major resistance level), as shown on the following monthly chart.

The Balance of Power still rests with buyers, but December's level is currently below that of November's, in spite of a 4,413 higher price.

Keep an eye on the BOP level at the December close. If it remains below that of November's close, we could see a retracement early in 2021...potentially down to around 20,000, or lower, particularly if price hits 1.382% by year end.


December 21, 2020: The "Great Conjunction" of Jupiter & Saturn

Watch the Lowell Observatory (Flagstaff, Arizona) live streaming celestial event of the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn at 5:00 pm MST on December 21 (which happens to coincide with the 2020 winter solstice). These two planets will appear closer than they ever have been since March 4, 1226, according to Rice University.