WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Spring

Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Apr. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. Apr. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Apr. 15 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. Apr. 15 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Apr. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. May 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, April 05, 2020

Thank You, Doctors! 💖


And...thank you to all healthcare professionals,
caregivers, first responders, volunteers, and
essential services providers! 
Please stay safe in this time of crisis.💖


A Message of Hope

The Queen's coronavirus message...


SPX Pivot Point Values For April

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of April are based on the high/low/close of the March monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

As of Friday's close, it's above the PP of the August 2017 candle and below all subsequent ones. A great deal of price resistance lies above, as well as an unfilled gap for April's candle.

I'm not confident that we'll see any convincing and sustainable strength arise anytime soon...due to the global crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic.


However, volatility has abated somewhat recently, as depicted on the following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart.

All three RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators are rising, but price is still below 60.00...a major price resistance level that must be recaptured and held if the SPX is going to have any chance of a recovery soon.

Otherwise, failure to do so, will likely mean lower prices in the coming days/weeks for the SPX, inasmuch as such high volatility levels are not the norm and are usually only sustained during periods of extreme economic and financial instability.

In any event, we'll likely see wild volatile swings in both directions until such time as the price on this ratio returns to, at least, the 200 level.


Friday, April 03, 2020

President Trump: A Reliable Trading Partner?

* IMPORTANT UPDATE below...

What kind of person refuses to help his neighbour, especially when both neighbours depend upon each other for essential survival?

President Trump became that kind of person when he issued this edict to 3M yesterday to stop sending essential protective medical gear to Canada for use in fighting the global Covid-19 pandemic. I believe he is applying this order (under his invocation of the provisions of the Defense Production Act) to all U.S. companies and all medical equipment, not just to 3M and not just masks. (I cried when I saw the headlines this morning when I got up...as a Canadian who is immunocompromised and currently battling a lung infection due to COPD-related issues, this hit me especially hard.)




Canada, Mexico and the U.S. spent months renegotiating the previous NAFTA agreement, and eventually all leaders and governments signed the new USMCA agreement relating to the tri-lateral trade of goods and services...all at the insistence of Mr. Trump, who was so anxious to strike a new trade deal. Canada negotiated in good faith on the assumption that, once signed, it would be implemented.

With the onslaught of the global Covid-19 pandemic, the three leaders agreed to continue to allow the free flow of essential goods and services among the three countries and across their respective borders, while shutting down all non-essential travel to try and contain the spread of the virus.

The President is deliberately endangering the lives of Canadian health care workers and Canadians by breaking this essential flow of medical goods. The ramifications of this could, unintentionally, boomerang back onto the U.S. due to, first, the loss of production of essential reciprocal goods and services, and, then, once the pandemic has abated somewhat, other Canadian goods and services upon which Americans rely for their day to day lives, because of the loss of Canadian lives in those important fields. American lives could, ultimately, also be lost...he has not thought this through very well, as the consequences could be exponentially multiplied and severe.

Mr. Trump would not only have the blood of Canadians on his hands, but Americans, as well. There is a special place in hell for bullies in leadership roles, and he leads the pack with regard to this order. He deserves no respect, inasmuch as he does not even respect his own people, let alone his neighbours. Nor does he act in good faith when negotiating trade deals. He proved that, along with his gross incompetence, yesterday.

The President has proven that the U.S. cannot be trusted as a reliable trading partner for essential services and supplies during this medical crisis. Canada will have no alternative but to look to other nations to establish a reliable flow of these essential items...but such help will likely be too late, if at all, and many lives will be lost in the meantime.

He claims to be a Christian and to leave no one behind...but has proven otherwise, as he has condemned many people, including Americans, to an unnecessary hardship and death. He does not deserve to be the leader, nor the military Commander-in-Chief, of any country...and deserves no respect. His legacy will be tarnished with this grossly inhumane episode.


P.S. Finally, I mean no disrespect to my American "cousins" by my rantings...they, in no way, reflect how I feel about you and for the gratitude that I have for all that our two countries have shared over many years.

I was trying to highlight the importance of ensuring that all these essential goods and services continue to flow between our countries, especially during this crisis, since they and their ingredients are so intertwined...e.g., 1000s of Canada's nurses travel back and forth across the border into the U.S. every day to help out in the U.S. health care system and hospitals. Also, Canada supplies the materials needed (from our many pulp and paper mills) to make the N95 masks, and we supply gloves and test kits.

If our people die because Mr. Trump refuses to send us any masks that are superfluous to their needs, then we won't be able to continue with our support because we won't have the manpower...he really hasn't thought this through.

Furthermore, if he continues to turn his back on Canada and other countries that need help in this urgent crisis, then their leaders will have no choice but to look to source their medical equipment from another supplier(s)...and China is just sitting there waiting with open arms, ready to take America's place, not only in this instance, but in meeting their future needs (by supplying other goods and services beyond what they currently provide), as well.

The President really hasn't thought this through, or looked at the longer-term consequences that isolating his country from the rest of the world would bring...but, no doubt, President Xi has and has likely prepared many plans for many scenarios for many months/years to come. And, I wouldn't underestimate Mr. Xi's resolve or laser focus on actualizing his vision in due course.

I REPEAT...President Trump really hasn't thought things through...not only with respect to this pandemic, but to his entire "America First" agenda.

There has to be a balance in all things, lest total chaos ensue for many years to come...resulting in a gradual shift of power from the U.S. to China.

In the meantime, may everyone be safe and stay healthy during this crisis and beyond.

* UPDATE April 6...

Thank you 3M and President Trump!...😊

I hope such reciprocal trading can continue between neighbours during the course of this crisis...and in the long run...there is honour in so doing.

N.B. Read this CityNews article at this link

Monday, March 30, 2020

China and Australia Indices: An Abnormal Divergence

As can be seen on the following monthly comparison chart of China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) and the Australian 200 Futures Index (AUS200), their price swings began to markedly and, abnormally, diverge from December 2017 to present day.

While the AUS200 continued to make new swing highs, the SSEC failed to do so.

The AUS200 has plummeted and has now made a new swing low, while the SSEC has not...yet.

We'll see if this significant weakness in the AUS200 is a harbinger of much further weakness to come in the SSEC in the next few days/weeks.


Source: bloomberg.com


Thursday, March 26, 2020

A "Grand Evolution" May Be Just Around The Corner

IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS


In the grand scheme of things, consider the area above current price on the following 50-year (monthly) chart of the SPX as the top of an iceberg...and the area below as its foundation beneath the surface of an ocean.

There is a fundamentally-solid foundation of (economic) support below the surface to keep the U.S. economy afloat in these turbulent times.


The volatility that we've seen the past couple of months revolving around the world-wide coronavirus pandemic will settle down at some point. It has already retreated somewhat (since it bottomed on March 16), as shown on the following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart.

The RSI is beginning to turn up, and there have been bullish crossovers on the MACD and PMO indicators, as the slowing of the recent decline and abrupt reversal of the SPX has outpaced the level of volatility over the past two weeks.

In the meantime, keep the above big picture in mind, together with the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, as well as health containment/mitigation measures, that are currently underway by global central bankers, world leaders, and health officials to cope with the financial, economic, and health fallout from this virus, as markets, in general, attempt to stabilize and regain some lost ground.


IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS


When the "virus dust" has settled, to a great degree, around the world, no doubt there will be an enormous amount of reassessment and restructuring by world leaders, financial experts, health officials, markets, and the manufacturing and service industries as to current methods of product development and distribution, education format, business environments, healthcare priorities and practices, monetary allocation priorities, etc.

Whether or not and to what degree life, as we knew it, will return to "normal" remains to be seen.

Exactly what and how changes can be made to improve the flow and delivery of information, education, goods and services, financial stability, and healthcare for everyone will, no doubt, be the topic by many for months to come.

"grand evolution" may be just around the corner.

A "creative visionary" would find a way to streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts, and accelerate this entire process. And, a "creative opportunist" would find a way to capitalize on this process.


N.B. Compare and contrast the SPX "iceberg" with China's Shanghai Index (SSEC), and you'll see that China's multiple attempts at rebooting their economic prowess have failed to hold for any sustained length of time since the early 2000s.

In fact, those short-term results have been, and continue to be, very erratic and volatile, as their measures become less and less effective.

Long-term major support sits at 2000, as shown on the monthly chart below.


* UPDATE March 27...


Tuesday, March 24, 2020

SPX Targets: Rally to 2750 or Catastrophic Selloff?

* See UPDATES below...

Should the SPX rally on Tuesday and beyond, the potential Fibonacci retracement targets taken from February's high to Monday's low are shown on the following monthly chart.

A drop and hold below the low could spark a catastrophic selloff to longer-term Fib retracement levels at 2030, or even 1700.

Note that there is a convergence zone of Fib levels and a trendline apex from 2650 to 2790, say 2750ish, making it an attractive eventual target for buyers in this extremely large 1200-point trading range.


P.S. This was tweeted right after I published this post...(so, more "green shoots" in the making?)...



And this information was released later today...


* UPDATE March 25...

The SPX is on its way, potentially, to 2750, or higher (screenshot of the following weekly chart was taken at 1:45 pm ET).


* UPDATE March 26...

The SPX is still on its way up after today's close...


Note on the following daily chart, there is a gap to be filled on the way up to 2750...not a lot of price resistance until then.


IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS


In the grand scheme of things, consider the area above current price on the following 50-year (monthly) chart of the SPX as the top of an iceberg...and the area below as its foundation beneath the surface of an ocean.

There is a fundamentally-solid foundation of (economic) support below the surface to keep the U.S. economy afloat in these turbulent times.


The volatility that we've seen the past couple of months revolving around the world-wide coronavirus pandemic will settle down at some point. It has already retreated somewhat (since it bottomed on March 16), as shown on the following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart.

The RSI is beginning to turn up, and there have been bullish crossovers on the MACD and PMO indicators, as the slowing of the recent decline and abrupt reversal of the SPX has outpaced the level of volatility over the past two weeks.

In the meantime, keep the above big picture in mind, together with the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, as well as health containment/mitigation measures, that are currently underway by global central bankers, world leaders, and health officials to cope with the financial, economic, and health fallout from this virus, as markets, in general, attempt to stabilize and regain some lost ground.


IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS


When the "virus dust" has settled, to a great degree, around the world, no doubt there will be an enormous amount of reassessment and restructuring by world leaders, financial experts, health officials, markets, and the manufacturing and service industries as to current methods of product development and distribution, education format, business environments, healthcare priorities and practices, monetary allocation priorities, etc.

Whether or not and to what degree life, as we knew it, will return to "normal" remains to be seen.

Exactly what and how changes can be made to improve the flow and delivery of information, education, goods and services, financial stability, and healthcare for everyone will, no doubt, be the topic by many for months to come.

A "grand evolution" may be just around the corner.

"creative visionary" would find a way to streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts, and accelerate this entire process. And, a "creative opportunist" would find a way to capitalize on this process.