UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 1 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. Oct. 14 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Saturday, September 18, 2021
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
* See UPDATES below...
Today's Zero Hedge article regarding China's second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group (and its major debt obligations and defaults), prompted me to analyze a number of charts in light of previous articles I've written about China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) and China's Financial ETF, namely GXC, including other global indices and Financial ETFs. By the way, the last article I wrote about these markets and ETFs (on March 12, 2020) can be found here.
The words "widespread contagion," mentioned in the ZH article, should be taken into consideration when one examines possible financial consequences that we may see erupt in a big way, in China and, potentially, in U.S. and global markets.
My analysis of the situation is purely technical and begins with showing where a number of indices and financial ETFs are positioned today.
The following monthly comparison chart of the SSEC and GXC shows that they have, historically, moved in lock-step. However, note the huge divergence that has occurred since February 2021.
The GXC has fallen from a high of 156.29 to a low of 107.93...while the SSEC is still pushing up against its highs of this year.
So, either the SSEC will plunge to catch up with its counterpart, or the GXC will stabilize and spike to retest its all-time high.
Given what I've deduced from Zero Hedge's report, my own cynical outlook is that the SSEC will drop to somewhere around the 3000 level, or lower to 2500, or even lower yet.
I think that level will depend on whether there is, in fact, a catastrophic contagion fallout to banks and investors in China, as well as, potentially, banks and investors in the U.S. and Europe which may be directly, or indirectly, impacted by such fallout, as well as a knock-on effect on possible further supply chain disruptions around the globe and inflation spikes in this scenario, as well.
Keep a close eye on all three comparison charts and note how each of these three Financial ETFs are trending in the coming days and weeks.
They should signal how much of an impact or contagion may spread from the Evergrande debts and defaults to the banking sectors and investors around the globe...and how such contagion may impact the global equity markets...e.g., track the price action of the MSCI World Index and the GXC for a big-picture view, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.
When price falters and begins to drop in the MSCI World Index, look for the SPX and European Indices to weaken, as well.
My last post on the SPX outlined, in detail, what to look for with respect to its own precipitous "bubble" formation that it's currently locked within. So, keep an eye on those clues, as well (e.g., other markets, namely, the U.S. Dollar, Treasury Yields and Gold).
Also, although I was a bit early with my projections of a parabolic blow-off top occurring in U.S. Banks, as outlined in my post of April 10, the threat is still there, and my comments are still relevant today.
* UPDATE September 16...
Things could get ugly for Evergrande investors, as well as Chinese and global markets...
* UPDATE September 19...
Monday's trading in China should be interesting...as well as in U.S. and European markets...although, U.S. traders may hold back on major selling in the hope that the Fed remains dovish in its upcoming meeting on Wednesday...
Monday, September 13, 2021
No wonder Americans don't trust what they have to say regarding all things pertaining to COVID-19!
Sunday, September 12, 2021
How many landfills will be needed world-wide to bury non-recyclable non-degradable windmill blades by 2030?
Add to that, burial sites for those parts of broken-down solar panels and hazardous materials that aren't recyclable.
Where are the protests of environmentalists against the ever-increasing use of these not-so-green eco-damaging energy systems?
Saturday, September 11, 2021
With all the chaotic political, economic and national security messes/crises that President Joe Biden has created in America and abroad since he took office in January 2021, one has to wonder about his competence -- and that of all his advisors and cabinet members -- and whether he is capable of fulfilling his duty.