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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Remembrance Day

Remembrance Day

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Nov. 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Nov. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Dec. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
* Wed. Jan. 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Friday, August 31, 2018

Trump's Trade Tactics: Scare & Insult Canada Into Submission?

From the excerpt below, as reported today by The Toronto Star, it appears that President Trump is bargaining with Canada in bad faith and using scare tactics in the process (the red highlights and frames are mine). You can read their article in its entirety here.




Why should Canadians ever trust him, particularly as he's already tried to bully Canada with his distorted trade facts, as I've discussed at length here? And, he seems to have conveniently forgotten that Canada bailed out American GM and Chrysler's operations in Canada after the U.S. 2008/09 financial crisis...for a loss of CAN$3.7 billion to the Canadian taxpayer...so, to threaten to punish its auto sector in such a petulant manner is unbelievable!

Are there no adults running the U.S. government? It appears that the cat's got their tongues.


And, here's your confirmation of these "off the record" remarks, by Mr. Trump, himself...


Stay tuned for this upcoming Canadian press conference (without the U.S.)...



Notwithstanding Ms. Freeland's press conference (which just concluded) where she re-iterated that "Canada won't sign a trade deal unless it benefits Canadians" and where she announced that trade talks will resume next Wednesday, it doesn't look positive for Canada...if Trump won't compromise, why would Canada agree to his terms in the future, if it doesn't agree now? 

It looks like a tri-lateral trade deal is dead in the water to replace NAFTA. One brave Senator was willing to support U.S. allies...we'll see if the U.S. Congress disagrees with him and approves only a bi-lateral deal between the U.S. and Mexico that doesn't include Canada.


If Congress does approve a deal that excludes Canada, then Canada can look forward to the escalation of a trade war, inasmuch as it appears that the President is out to punish Canadians and cripple Canada's economy with his personal vendetta and agenda (as he already promised to do on June 12 and as described here)...one that is not based on actual and sound economic facts...and one that builds on his already punitive and unjustified steel and aluminum tariffs.

(Below is an excerpt from that article...click here to read it in full)

Finally, trust me, Mr. Trump, when I tell you that no Canadian believes that you love Canada...so, cut the crap...and, when you add a 'but' in a sentence, it completely negates the preceding phrase.


Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Nine-Year U.S. Bull Market Money Flow

The first three of the following graphs depict percentages gained for the Major U.S. Indices during three time periods, namely:
  • since March 6, 2009 (the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis), 
  • since November 8, 2016 (the Presidential election), and 
  • year-to-date.

Generally, traders/investors have favoured technology, small-cap, and transportation indices over the large-cap and utilities indices...indicating a stronger preference for risk over value, which continues to today.




The next three graphs depict percentages gained for the nine U.S. Major Sectors:
  • since March 6, 2009 (the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis), 
  • since November 8, 2016 (the Presidential election), and 
  • year-to-date.

Until this year, traders/investors have favoured consumer cyclicals, technology, industrials, health care, and financials. However, this year, industrials and financials have fallen out of favour, leaving only a risk-on environment in consumer cyclicals, technology, and health care, while the remaining sectors are roughly flat or under water, in comparison...indicating a reduced appetite for risk.

As I mentioned in my post of August 15, U.S. and world financial markets may hold the key as to whether or not this bull market continues to advance for the remainder of the year. Keep an eye on those, along with the USD and other factors mentioned in that article for confirmation, or not, of such a scenario. 

As well, watch for any reallocation of money from consumer cyclicals, technology, small caps, and transportation, into large caps, utilities, consumer staples, materials, and energy, if markets shift from a riskier to a more defensive posture.




Friday, August 17, 2018

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

A World Financial Battle Approaches

The first three ratio charts show:
  1. the U.S. Financial ETF (XLF) compared with the SPX,
  2. the European Financial ETF (EUFN) compared with the STOX50, and
  3. the Chinese Financial ETF (GXC) compared with the SSEC.
Each one's Financial ETF is weaker than its country's major index, and in the case of the EUFN and GXC ratios, are sitting at a major support level, while the XLF ratio is approaching major support.




The fourth ratio chart shows that the Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) is stronger than its counterpart Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and is approaching a major resistance level. (Note that EMB holds USD-denominated rather than local-currency debt, and eliminates direct currency risk for U.S. investors, but raises the possibility that a strengthening dollar or weakening local currency could make the debt harder to service, increasing credit risk.)


The next chart of the USD shows price approaching its next major resistance level at 97.50.


The next ratio chart shows the strengthening of the USD compared to EMB since the end of January. Price has a way to go before it hits its next major resistance level.


The last three ratio charts compare price of the STOX50, SSEC, and EEM to the SPX. They are all much weaker than the SPX, the STOX50 and EEM ratios are sitting on major support, and the SSEC ratio is trading below major support.




The last graph shows the percentages lost in the SPX, XLF, STOX50, EUFN, SSEC, GXC, EEM and EMB since they peaked around the end of January this year, as well as the gains made, conversely, in the USD.


Unless all of the three Financial ETFs firm up and attract new buyers soon, we'll see weakness continue, and possibly accelerate, in European, Chinese and Emerging Markets, potentially dragging U.S. equities down, as well. Keep a close eye on the USD as a potential flight-to-safety trade in such an event.

With respect to the U.S. market, I'd also refer you to my comments outlined during the past month in my posts here, here, here and here, which describe other factors I'm watching.

Monday, August 06, 2018

China's Shanghai Index Approaching Freefall

I last wrote about China's Shanghai Index in my post of June 19.

This index is in bear market territory and is headed toward its last (monthly) swing low of 2638.30, as shown on the following monthly chart of SSEC. A break of that level could see a swift drop to its next major support level of 2260, or lower.

Both the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators are below the zero level and are accelerating to the downside on this timeframe. Watch to see if they make a new swing low below the one made in February 2016.

If so, this index could be headed for major problems, and the increasing trade war with the U.S. is not helping.


Political Qestions of the Day

If President Trump is not a "subject" or "target" of Special Counsel, Robert Mueller's Russia/Trump campaign "collusion" investigation, as asserted by Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, why would he have to sit down for an interview with him? In what capacity/role would Trump be expected to answer questions, if he's neither? I've heard no one provide an answer to this...nor, have I even heard anyone ask these questions.

This makes no sense. The whole thing is bewildering...so, I'm left wondering what Mr. Mueller has on Mr. Trump...

SPX Fibonacci Fan Resistance Levels/Targets

Overlayed on each of the following two monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a Fibonacci Speed Resistance Fan.

The first one is taken from the low of March 2009 to the high of May 2015, which preceded the last major pullback to first fanline support and prior to the recent minor one this past February. Based on this fan trajectory, the first major resistance level sits just above the last all-time high (of 2872.87) at 2900.


The second one is taken from the low of March 2009 to the high of January 2018, which was when the last record high was made. Based on this fan trajectory, the second major resistance level sits at 3033.

It's been quite a while since we saw a pullback to first fanline support (a year and a half), and this nine-year (predominantly) bull run is running the risk of a much larger pullback, the longer it keeps breaking record highs.

And, we're approaching the U.S. midterm elections, which are only three months away, as well as getting closer to more rate hikes by the Fed as they still have three chances this year to do so. Add to that mix the potential for a trade war escalation, and there are building headwinds for Q3 and Q4.


The momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators have been waning since January of this year, as shown on the next monthly chart. In fact, the ROC is hovering just above the zero level. Both MOM and ROC made a new swing high as price set its record high in January.

If we see a push higher to 2900, or even 3033, keep an eye on MOM and ROC to see whether they make a higher swing high than January's. If so, we may see price eventually push higher.

Otherwise, we may finally see that larger pullback occur.


Finally, I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of July 10.

Price has recently popped above what is now minor support of 225 and major support of 200, as shown on the following daily ratio chart of SPX:VIX.

The 50 and 200 MAs have formed a bullish Golden Cross, and all three technical indicators have made new "BUY" signals, but are still in downtrend.

If the SPX reaches 2900 or 3033, I'd like to see price, RSI, MACD and PMO on this ratio make a new record high (in addition to new swing highs on the above-mentioned MOM and ROC indicators), to confirm the possibility of a bullish bias being sustained.

Otherwise, that larger pullback may occur on the SPX.


Friday, August 03, 2018

Two Pinocchios For President Trump

From Global News...




The following videos from the above article are not fake...I watched both of these events in real time and they're accurate.

By the way...true fact...the Queen is always on time.