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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Fall Cabin

Fall Cabin

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Fri. Oct. 7 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 12 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Nov. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Friday, September 30, 2022

SPX: A Big-Picture Market Perspective...Still Room For More Rate Hikes and Market Weakness

Check out the following two long-range monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

With the current Federal Reserve Interest Rate still only at 3-3.25%, and the SPX still 395% above its 2009 low, it seems to me that there is still a lot of room for more rate hikes to tame inflation, which may bring price down to around 3200 -- its first major support level -- or even lower.

That would blow off the excess parabolic froth that was created in this market from mid-2020 and bring equities more in line with actual economic and global supply-chain conditions.


Until we see the SPX:VIX ratio fall to somewhere around 80.00 or, more likely, 60.00, I don't think we're close to an equity capitulation yet.

So, look for more rate hikes ahead and more SPX weakness...which is in line with my conclusions in my post of September 24.

P.S. The SPX closed the daymonthQ3 and YTD much lower and just a breath above its low of the day, month, Q3, and YTD...at 3585.62.


Sunday, September 25, 2022

British Pound's Breaking Point

* See UPDATE below...

The British Pound (GBP/USD) is taking a beating in overnight trading as it crashed to a new all-time low of 1.0384, so far...below the record low set in early 1985.

Its long-term major support (breaking point) of 1.4000 was broken in April of 2016, and it never recovered.

As I mentioned in my post of September 24, the US Dollar has strengthened this year against all other foreign currencies, including GBP/USD.

Unless GBP/USD retakes and holds above 1.4000, expect more volatile swings and, possibly, a break below parity.


* UPDATE Sept. 26...

Will the Bank of England raise rates aggressively before their next scheduled meeting on Thursday, November 3 to stem the rout in the Pound Sterling?...



ITALY: Time For A Political Change...But Will That Prop Up Their Major Indices?

Since the financial crisis of 2008/09, Italy's Major Indices have had difficulty gaining sustained traction to accumulate and build on meaningful gains above their respective long-term major support levels (16,000 for the FTSE Italia All Share Index and 1,600 for the Investing.com Italy 40 Index). They've been, essentially, trading in a large and whippy sideways consolidation zone, since then.

So, perhaps a change of political landscape will ameliorate that, in due course.


We'll see how the final votes tally up in today's election -- potentially in favour of Italy's first female Prime Minister -- to swing the left-leaning government to a right-leaning one.

Until party leadership and party direction/agenda become known and more detailed, we may see some volatile trading in these markets (as well as the Euro, as noted in my post of September 24) for awhile.

 


CHART OF THE YEAR: We(Didn't)Work 😕

WeWork (WE) is on its way to zero...who bought it at 14.97?🤔

SoftBank (SFTBY) invested $17 Billion in WeWork, according to this October 2021 Bloomberg article...and we know how SoftBank has fared. 

Since my post of August 8, SFTBY closed lower at 17.95 last Friday. As I reported, failure to hold above 16.00 could see it plummet in short order to 10.00, or lower.



Saturday, September 24, 2022

GLOBAL MONEY FLOW: Cash & Crash

I've written a number of posts in the last few months regarding the MSCI World Index and the SPX, several of which are here and here, respectively, (together with subsequent updates) warning of further market crashes.

The following Year-to-Date and One-Week Percentages Lost/Gained graphs clearly depict, at a glance, global money flow for 2022 and for the past week (graphs courtesy of StockCharts.com).


MONEY FLOW YEAR-TO-DATE


U.S. Major Indices

U.S. Major Sectors

European Major Indices

Canada, Japan & Australia Major Indices

Emerging Markets ETF, BRIC Major Indices & BRIC ETF

Commodity & Agriculture ETFs & Commodities

Currencies, BITCOIN, XLF, EUFN & GXC

MONEY FLOW SEPT. 19-23


U.S. Major Indices

U.S. Major Sectors

European Major Indices

Canada, Japan & Australia Major Indices

Emerging Markets ETF, BRIC Major Indices & BRIC ETF

Commodity & Agriculture ETFs & Commodities

Currencies, Bitcoin, XLF, EUFN & GXC

SUMMARY

Overall, the biggest winners have been:

  • the Oil and Gasoline sectors, 
  • as well as the U.S. Dollar.

The biggest losers have been:

  • Bitcoin, 
  • global equities (especially U.S., China, Russia, Europe and the emerging markets ETF, EEM), 
  • global Financial ETFs (U.S., Europe & China), 
  • foreign currencies, 
  • U.S. Bonds, 
  • copper & precious metals, and
  • U.S. Discretionary, Technology, Materials and Financial Sectors.

During the past week, there has been:

  • continued buying of the U.S. Dollar, 
  • continued selling of Bitcoin, 
  • some selling in Oil and Gasoline,
  • accelerated selling of the British Pound, the Euro, Aussie Dollar and Canadian Dollar,
  • accelerated selling of the U.S., European and Chinese Financial ETFs (XLF, EUFN and GXC), and
  • accelerated selling of global Major Indices (including U.S.), and U.S. Major Sectors.


CONCLUSIONS

All in all, I see no pivot away from U.S. Dollar strength and global equity and sector (and Bitcoin) weakness...YET.

So, for the moment, U.S. cash is king, as the U.S. Fed has signalled its intent to continue raising interest rates and keep them elevated for some time after inflation has declined to the Fed's 2% maximum inflation target...which could last well into 2025.

*********

P.S. After I published this post, I came across the following article...which, interestingly, confirms my conclusions...

And, more analysts' opinions...



Tuesday, September 20, 2022

BYND: Don't Mess With Vegetarians! 😕

* See UPDATE below...

After a face-ripping spike to its all time high of 239.71 three months after its IPO in May of 2019, Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) has done an about-face ever since...falling well below its IPO price of 46.00 to 16.45 (as I write this early Tuesday afternoon), as shown on the following monthly chart...and around a 90% drop from its high.

It looks like people still like real meat...instead of plant-based meat...even during the current period of 40-year high inflation. 

Until that changes, we may see price eventually reach zero.

And, from the following report, it looks like it's not just its price that's been a face-ripper.

I don't imagine this recent incident involving their COO will help their sales very much. 😕

* UPDATE Sept. 26...

It turns out that fake meat is too expensive and unappetizing for 95% of the population...the meat-eaters.

Sounds like this fad was a dud...and a liability for its investors.


Friday, September 16, 2022

FedEx Volatility: Three Strikes And You're Out!

* See UPDATE below...

Following Thursday's after-hours dire world-wide recession warning by FedEx CEO, its stock (FDX) has plunged this morning.

FDX has a history of volatile parabolic spikes and plunges. In fact, it had difficulty, twice, in holding any gains above 120.00 since it broke above in September 2013, as shown on the following monthly chart. Price is heading back to that level for a third time, as I write this post.

A drop and hold below 120.00 could see it hit its next major support level of 80.00, or lower.

If this is a harbinger of things to come, it will confirm that world markets are in for a very rough ride (as I first reported on July 26 and later updates).



ZeroHedge excerpt


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Sept. 19...

It seems to me that markets have 'levitated on myths' since Day One, especially since March 2009, in the weeks, months and years following the 2008/09 financial crisis.

Fed Chairman Powell can't fix the global supply chain crisis, so his rate-raising actions won't curb inflation entirely, but will contribute to the giant economic mess that countries around the world now find themselves trying to overcome.

People, especially those on fixed and low incomes (and even middle incomes), are in for a lot of pain...thanks to the artificial market and economic environment that global central bankers have created over many years.

In other words, visualize the proportionality of 'cause and effect' and you get the picture.

Cause...Effect?


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

Abraham Maslow (Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs) would be rolling in his grave if he saw the state of things now. 

Most people (99%) around the world are still struggling in the bottom two levels of the Hierarchy.

So much for so-called 'personal progress' over the centuries! 🤔

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs


Sunday, September 11, 2022

Pierre Poilievre: A Force Majeure

Pierre Poilievre was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada last night in a first-ballot landslide victory.

Judging from his barn-burner speech, and with a very strong mandate, he will be a formidable opposition leader to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau!

One to watch over the coming months!