UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 1 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. Oct. 14 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
However, I'll leave my Blog up (at least for awhile) since it contains a lot of useful reference material.
I'd like to thank all who've visited my Blog over the past couple of years and those who've kindly e-mailed me. And, I wish to give a hearty 'thank-you' to all websites that are either linked to my Blog or have published my articles...the creators of these sites have been most generous and I'm very grateful for the exposure. :-)
Take care and best of luck to all.
Monday, July 15, 2013
If you look at price action from the beginning of 2013, you can see that Japan's Nikkei has gained the most, followed by the SPX, London's FTSE, Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and Australia's AORD. The laggards have been the BRIC countries, although India is slightly in the green for the year. This is more easily seen on the following Year-to-date percentage gained/lost graph.
This news has just been released regarding the ECB's EFSF (I've written about the EFSF and the OMT here relative to the OMT's legitimacy):
Any substantial weakening of the EU countries (particularly below the 50 MA) in response to this news could have a negative affect on the SPX, as well as the already-depressed BRIC countries...ones to watch over the days/weeks to come.
Friday, July 12, 2013
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- YM, ES, NQ, TF, & NKD
- Comparison of SPX, TNX, Oil, Gasoline, DJUSFD, XLF, GE, XHB, Lumber & Copper
- Percentage of Stocks Above 20-50-200-Day Moving Averages
- Comparison of NDX, SPX, VIX & VXN (Is Bubble No. 3 about to burst?)
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Since then, price has rallied and has closed above 2000 in Thursday's action, as shown on the Daily chart below. The next hurdle will be to rally and hold above the 50 and 200 MAs at 2200, followed by a downtrend line at 2300.
One gauge of China's strength going forward may be exemplified by the AUD/CAD forex pair.
You can see from the following Weekly chart that, as of Thursday evening, price has, once again, broken below the lower edge of the downtrending channel and is threatening to fall to the next support level of 0.9300, or lower.
Further weakness in AUD/CAD may drag the Shanghai Index back below the critical 2000 level (or vice versa)...worthwhile watching if you trade the Shanghai market.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
JNK attempts to stabilize at 200 Day MA...will see if traders buy into corporate bonds once more...frothy volumes kept price from plunging after initial drop below 200 MA...all 3 indicators pointing to a higher price...if so, equities should continue to rise, in general, but will see how JNK performs against TNX in the coming days/weeks: 3-Year Daily chart of JNK
TNX approaching major resistance level on slightly negative divergence on indicators...hinting at pause or slow-down in rate rise: 3-Year Daily chart of TNX
Sunday, July 07, 2013
Friday, July 05, 2013
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD
- Comparison of SPX, TNX, Oil, Gasoline, DJUSFD, XLF, GE, XHB, Lumber, Copper
YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD
I most recently discussed the price action from the November 2012 lows on these 5 E-mini Futures Indices in my last weekly market update.
You can see from the updated Weekly charts below that Small-caps (TF) and Technology (NQ) garnered the most support during the week to close just above the middle of their respective uptrending channels. The TF has made a new Daily swing high but will need to make a higher swing low to, potentially, re-establish its former uptrend on the daily timeframe...the one to watch for either continued leadership in a push higher, or for the onset of weakness to, potentially, drag the others lower.
I'd be looking for all of these indices to advance and hold above their mid-channel levels to signal that the bulls have control, once again, and are ready to take these markets higher...BUT I'd like to see any further advance beyond that level done so on higher volumes...otherwise, we may just be witnessing a "dead cat bounce" that has no sustainability. This week's advance occurred on greatly-reduced volumes, likely due to the July 3rd & 4th holiday closures.
As such, we may see this past week's lows tested, and possibly the prior week's lows, before a serious advance resumes.
Comparison of SPX, TNX, Oil, Gasoline, DJUSFD, XLF, GE, XHB, Lumer, Copper
Inasmuch as 2013 Q2 earnings season begins next week with Alcoa reporting on Monday, I thought it might be interesting to monitor the following Indices and Sectors during Q3.
In the "real world" where the "ninety-nine-percenters" are affected the most by inflationary factors, I've assembled the following grouping to see how the SPX reacts to any further rise in the other instruments. It's my opinion that it's unfair and misleading to simply look at one segment of the market and say that a further rise in prices or interest/loan rates would not be onerous on consumers; rather, it's important to look at the impact on the average consumer based on aggregate factors.
You can see from the following 1-Year Daily charts and 1-Year percentage gained/lost graph that 10-Year Treasury yields have gained the most (a whopping 70.01%) during this timeperiod and have set a new 1-year high on Friday, while the Homebuilders Sector is up by 35.57% and is in the midst of a recent downtrend after making a new 1-year high, the Food Retailers & Wholesalers Index is up by 20.08% and is near its 1-year highs, Oil is up by 18.63% and is at a new 1-year high, and Gasoline is up by 5.54% and is retesting recent resistance above the 50 MA. Furthermore, Lumber is now up 8.77% after retesting support near its 1-year lows and Copper is in the red, but is retesting support near its 1-year lows. As well, the Financials Sector has gained 38.29% and is trading near 1-year highs.
I don't know about the rest of you, but my grocery and gasoline bills have been steadily increasing over the past year, and my home and car insurance is more expensive this year than last (I'm definitely not in the 1% category). Further increases in bank loan rates, car loan rates, mortgage rates, home prices, rents, various insurance products, gasoline prices, food, and the cost of cyclical products (as represented by GE, which is up 18.13% and trading near 1-year highs) are bound to place a definite "drag" on consumers...AND I haven't even touched on rising costs associated with health care, education, numerous services, municipal/state/federal taxes, entertainment, travel, etc.
Any further hike in Treasury yields will, no doubt, affect all consumer products and services...at some point, we'll see a slowing in consumer demand...AND I doubt whether any further improvements in job creation in the near term will be sufficient to eliminate and overcome such a cumulative affect in costs, particularly if they continue to be skewed to part-time rather than full-time hiring, as seems to be favoured at the moment. (You can find the latest employment report at this link and 3 summary tables here, here and here...links to other summaries may be found at the bottom of the first link.) That's why I'm monitoring this group for any signs of weakness or excessive frothiness during Q3 and Q4 [in spite of what Q2 earnings reports (and any forward-guidance) may reveal] to gauge the impact on the SPX.
We'll see how long equity markets (SPX) continue to "embrace" rising 10-year treasury yields (TNX)...watching this TNX:SPX ratio for a clear break and hold above the last pivot high to signal continued strength in yields vs. equities.