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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Spring

Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC VENTS...
* Wed. Mar. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Mar. 22 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9 & Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Mon. Apr. 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Fri. Apr. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Apr. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Apr. 19 ~ U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday holiday
* Wed. May 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Friday, February 22, 2019

Contraction Mode Deepens For Germany's Manufacturing PMI

Germany's Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.

Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month's release (March 22) for possible clues.


The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.


The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.

With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.


Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I've shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.


Thursday, February 14, 2019

Potential Head & Shoulders Forming on Amazon

Amazon (AMZN) is forming a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern, as shown on the following weekly chart.

We'll see whether it plays out, in view of their decision today (Thursday) to abandon their project to build their second headquarters in Long Island, Queens...at a loss of 25,000 job for New York. Their statement is here and it describes the political opposition it received.

Keep an eye on the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC), and average true range (ATR) indicators for direction and velocity purposes going forward. I've shown their input value as one period to illustrate that more clearly.


Core Retail Sales m/m data released today (Thursday) were drastically in the red...a harbinger of things to come, or just a blip? One to watch over the coming months. Another month like this last one could hit AMZN and other retail giants hard.


Happy Valentine's Day


Saturday, February 09, 2019

An Ideological Path To A Liquidity Crisis In U.S. Markets

Look out, corporate and middle America!

There's a new economic and capitalism threat occupying your (Congressional) House...namely, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has been busy sucking all the oxygen out of Democrats' House with the unveiling of her socialism-on-steroids "Green New Deal" this past week. As 2020 Democrats jump on board with her plan/proposed bill, Democratic House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi sarcastically referred to it as the "Green Dream."

If you want to create a liquidity crisis in U.S. equity markets, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. If you want to create an economic crisis, in America, as well as the rest of the world, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. Foreign and domestic investment in the U.S. will disappear.

As it is, U.S. and global markets have been fragile and volatile for over a year, and absurd political games such as this will only suck the liquidity out and increase volatility at an ever-accelerating pace. Offshore U.S. corporate monies will never be repatriated and invested in America. In fact, more funds will be hidden in offshore accounts under this scenario. This deal is a clever counter-measure to President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted on December 20, 2017. When companies fail to bring offshore monies to the U.S. by the 2020 election, Democrats will claim that the President's policies haven't worked and that Americans should, instead, embrace their ideology. Any benefits gained from this Act will be shattered. At that time, I was pondering whether the Dow 30 Index would reach 25,000. In fact, it reached a high of 26,951.81 in early October 2018 (just prior to the U.S. midterm elections) before it started to tank, and, interestingly enough, it's hovering just above 25,100, as of Friday's close.

You can see from the following weekly chart of the MSCI World Global Index that price rallied, after touching major support at 1800, and is now sitting at a critical intersection of a long-term uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork median and major price resistance level around 2030.


Inasmuch as many Democrats are on board with this destructive deal (adding to political headwinds as I described in this post) and not many Republicans and the business world have dismissed it yet, no doubt more support for it will continue to grow, especially among Millennials.

Just wait until the big bank executives are hauled before Democrat Maxine Waters' Financial Services Committee (on which Ms. Ocasia-Cortez sits as a member) and watch this political farce continue.

Keep an eye on the MSCI World Global Index, because if that begins to implode, you'll see U.S. markets follow suit.

Perhaps GOLD will become the favoured hedge for traders/investors against such a catastrophic scenario...and we'll see the rally accelerate, as I described recently in this post.


Now it looks like Democrats (including Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation) may be faced with serious investigations involving potential collusion with Russia and threats to national security on a variety of matters in the coming weeks, according to this latest report from The Hill's John Solomon. It's anticipated that the U.S. Inspector General will release a report by late spring/early summer in this regard, along with FISA abuse by the DOJ and FBI leading up to the 2016 election and beyond. As well, Senator Lindsay Graham will be investigating these issues, along with this FISA abuse, via his Senate Judiciary Committee.


2019 likely won't be a good year for Democrats as more is uncovered and revealed, including hypocritical racism and selective political support/non-support for alleged "Me Too" victims, which appears to be dependent upon which political party the accused is affiliated with...remember this fiasco during the (then) Judge Kavanaugh (now Justice Kavanaugh) Senate Judiciary hearings?




And, thanks to active socialist resistance to Amazon's proposal to build a second headquarters in Long Island, Queens from New York politicians such as Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Amazon are abandoning their project, which would have created 25,000 jobs...their statement is below.


And, the knock-on effect has erupted...

Source: Bloomberg.com


We'll see if Virginia's politicians are any friendlier towards and supportive of capitalism than New York's...


So, Democrats' far-left socialist movement is already underway and is, seemingly, effective at stopping capitalism in its tracks.

Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell is planning to force a vote in the Senate on this "Green New Deal." We'll see if Senate Democrats and their 2020 Presidential candidates will "put their money where their mouth is" to support it...or not.



And, is this constitutional overreach by Democrats?...take a look at this Associated Press article, "House Panel Seeks Documents on 81 People Linked to Trump." How will House Democrats find any time to draft legislation over the next two years that actually benefits Americans when all their attention is focused on these shenanigans?


Source: washingtonexaminer.com

Meanwhile...

REALITY CHECK: A good reason to NOT adopt the "Green New Deal"...it would add trillions to the already ballooning $22 Trillion National Debt!


P.S.
They're coming for your cows...time to stock up on Big Macs! 😊
Judge Jeanine's Opening Statement Feb. 9, 2019 on Fox News TV's "Justice With Judge Jeanine"

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

GOLD: Set To Explode Higher

Gold has been under quiet accumulation since last August, as shown on the following daily chart.

The moving averages formed a new bullish Golden Cross several days ago. The RSI and MACD indicators are in uptrend, the RSI is still above 50.00, and the STOCH has just made a bullish crossover.


Price on the following daily ratio chart of GOLD versus its Volatility Index (GOLD:GVZ) has just broken above its near-term major resistance around the 120.00 level.

Both the MACD and PMO indicators have put in a higher swing high, while the RSI has yet to do the same; however, it's still above the 50.00 level.

Should the ratio price remain above 120.00 and continue its rally, I'd like to see the RSI also make a new swing high. If that scenario occurs, there's a very good chance that GOLD could explode much higher in the days/weeks ahead. Near-term minor price resistance is around the 1360 level, followed by 1400 and 1550 major resistance, as shown on the weekly chart below.



Monday, January 14, 2019

Star-Studded FAANGs

I last wrote about the FAANGs and FNGU and what I was monitoring in my post of November 4, 2018.

2018 was the year we saw the FAANGs form bearish shooting stars. Each candle on the following charts of FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and GOOG represents a period of one year (absent on these charts is 2019's candle, as I've left it off to illustrate last year's weakness and volatility compared with prior years in these stocks).

You can see, at a glance, that FB is the weakest of the five, as it has erased almost all of its 2017 gains, as well as its gains last year.






Each candle on the following chart of FNGU represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.

FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies...the index is highly concentrated and equally weighted. It is comprised of the 5 FAANG stocks + 5 tech stocks, namely, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA and TWTR.

As of the end of last year, it had erased all of its gains since it began trading in January 2018, and more.


Each candle on the following charts of BABABIDUNVDATSLA and TWTR represents a period of one year. Also absent on these charts is 2019's candle.

None of these stocks had a good year in 2018, either. In fact, BIDU has lost all of its gains made since 2014 and has taken a bite out of gains made in 2013, and TWTR closed out the year still lower than its IPO price in 2013.






Each candle on the following charts of the FAANGs represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.

We've seen the FAANGs lead the equity markets higher prior to Q4 of 2018 (and Q3 in the case of FB and NFLX), then lead them lower during Q4.






There's been some short covering in all 10 stocks, so far, in 2019 as shown on the following 1-Year daily charts (including FNGU and the SPX).

However, it remains to be seen whether prolonged and serious buying will continue in these stocks so as to propel them to reclaim a leadership role, once again...or whether this is just a short-term dead-cat bounce. I'd keep a close watch on FB, AAPL and GOOG, in particular, as further weakness could have a knock-on effect on some (or all) of these, as well as equities, in general.

We'll also see how much longer TWTR can survive, whether BIDU will ever make a comeback...and, whether FNGU will continue to trade much longer if general weakness persists in its 10 stocks.


Tuesday, January 01, 2019

China's Shanghai Index: Poised For A Plunge

Bearish Balance of Power may not shift on the Shanghai Index until (and if) 2000 is reached, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Otherwise, watch for a break and hold above 2500, together with a reversal, break and hold of the BOP indicator above the zero level to indicate a transference of power to bulls on this longer term timeframe.


2018 Market Wrap-Up: Extreme Volatility

The following charts depict 2018 market action in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), as well as the MSCI World Index. One word describes 2018 markets...volatile.

Volatility was extreme, as uncertainty gripped, not only U.S. markets, but markets world-wide, as well, as I had posited in my 2018 Market Forecast at the end of 2017. I believe it will continue to apply in 2019, and we'll see a world market slowdown, as I described in my 2019 Market Forecast.

Key levels that I'm watching on the SPX are 2600, 2400, 2250 and 2000, as illustrated in my post of December 27.

Market gauges that I'm monitoring in the weeks/months ahead are outlined in the above-mentioned posts, as the charts below are simply presented without comment (on the SPX) to depict this volatile price action.

Happy New Year and best of luck in 2019!

SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one year.


SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one quarter.


SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one month.


SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one year.


SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one quarter.

 
SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one month.


MSCI World Index -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one week.

N.B. 1800 is a critical level, as a break and hold below will drag U.S. equities down, as well. It was briefly pierced during the last week of December and may be retested before, either resuming its plunge, or reversing course.

A tepid reversal will not produce lasting confidence or commitment in world markets, nor sustain a meaningful longer-term rally. In this regard, I've shown the input value as "one" on the three technical indicators (MOM, ROC and ATR) to illustrate and gauge the strength and velocity of either direction.