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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Creek

Creek

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Nov. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Nov. 27 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Dec. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Dec. 11 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Dec. 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Monday, November 04, 2019

Will FAANGs Bite Back?

The following daily chart of FNGU shows that price has broken above and retested a downtrend line.

FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies...the index is highly concentrated and equally weighted.

The next major resistance level is around 47.34 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level).


FNGU is comprised of the tech stocks shown on the following daily charts.

Keep an eye on AMZN, NFLX, BABA, BIDU, and TWTR to see if they can claw their way back to an uptrend...especially TWTR, which can't afford to turn down advertising dollars from political ads pertaining to the 2020 election, as was recently decided by its CEO.


Sunday, November 03, 2019

S&P Emini Futures Index Intraday Targets

To keep this simple and brief, Monday's (November 4) intraday Pivot Point targets for the S&P Emini Futures Index (ES) are (as shown on the following 60 min chart):

R3 = 3117.67
R2 = 3085.67
R1 = 3074.33
PP = 3053.67
S1 = 3042.33
S2 = 3021.76
S3 = 2989.67

Weekly VWAP = 3068.22
Monthly VWAP = 3056.45
50 MA = 3046.43
200 MA = 3025.14

All of these levels represent short-term support and resistance levels.


The following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) contains a Fibonacci channel which begins at the March 2009 lows.

Its next Fib target sits around the 3125 level (1.618% external Fib level), which happens to coincide with Monday's R3 Pivot Point level.

Inasmuch as the Balance of Power lies currently with the bulls on this timeframe, we may see this level hit, if not on Monday, then perhaps sometime this week...particularly if 3050 (or, at least, 3040) holds as near-term support.


Finally, the following daily ratio chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that a bullish moving average Golden Cross has just reformed on rising RSI, MACD and PMO indicators...hinting of lower volatility and higher SPX prices.

If these hold, I expect that the SPX may just reach 3125ish in short order.


Tuesday, October 08, 2019

Canada's TSX Target Nearly Tagged

In my post of September 14, I had identified a Fibonacci target price of 16,972.52 for Canada's TSX Index. At the time, its price was $16,682.42.

It, subsequently, hit an all-time high of 16,947.23 on September 20 and has been in decline ever since, as shown on the following monthly chart.

The Balance of Power has shifted swiftly and sharply to sellers and has reached the extreme level in just two weeks. Historically, this level has signalled either the beginning of much more selling ahead, or a point of exhaustion and reversal.

With Canada's Federal election coming up on October 21, we may see this index slide further until then. If either a minority Liberal or Conservative government is elected, I think we'll see a further drop to around 15,600, or lower. After hearing a few political analysts comment on last night's (Monday) party leadership debate, I think that scenario is possible. Public support for the Liberal and Conservative parties is fairly evenly divided at the moment and we may see the NDP party gain enough support to thwart a majority government by either party.

Where the TSX Index goes from that date is anybody's guess...so keep an eye on the Balance of Power indicator for possible clues.


Friday, October 04, 2019

World Market Money Flow: Week 1 October 2019

Further to my post of September 29, this is simply a quick update to show directional movement and money flow for the first week of October for:
  • the SPX
  • the World Index excluding USA
  • the US Dollar
  • 30-year Bonds
  • Gold Futures

In a nutshell, trading was choppy in all of them, but some minor gains were made in Bonds and Gold, while further profits were taken in other world markets.

In the short term for all five, keep an eye on: 
  • the 50-day moving average, as it forms either support or resistance
  • the 50.00 RSI level, as it must either be retaken or held above to support higher prices

N.B. for a deeper dive into US Major Indices, check out my post here.



A Macro-To-Mini View Of US Major Indices

Each candle on the first chartgrid of the /ES, /YM and /NQ Emini Futures Indices and RUT Index represents a period of one year. (Note that I would have shown the /RTY Emini Futures, but it only had 3 years' of data, so I've shown the RUT instead).

The horizontal white line that cuts through each candle is a one-period moving average (H+L+C). Friday's closing price on the current year's candle is above this moving average. They are also above the moving average on both 2018 and 2017 candles. 

However, in the case of the RUT, the price is only slightly above the highest moving average on those two candles, so it's important that it holds above the highest at 1476.42 if we're going to see higher prices from here. 


Each candle on the next chartgrid of the /ES/YM and /NQ Emini Futures Indices and RUT Index represents a period of one quarter.

On a quarterly basis, and looking forward to the end of Q4, this H+L+C moving average for the Q3 candle is as follows:
  • /YM = 26461 = support
  • /ES = 2929.92 = support
  • /NQ = 7687.17 = support
  • RUT = 1524.37 = resistance

So, these three support levels for the /YM, /ES, and /NQ will need to hold to confirm a sustainable push for higher levels through to year end from here.

In the case of the RUT, it will have to retake and hold above its resistance level to convince traders to buy with conviction until then.


To gauge possible direction and volatility on a shorter daily timeframe, take a look at the following three ratio charts of SPX:VIX, NDX:VXN and RUT/RVX.

SPX:VIX ratio:
  • price is trading under the bearish influence of a recent moving average Death Cross formation and is just beneath this crossover
  • the RSI is just below the 50.00 level
  • the MACD and PMO are both trading under bearish crossovers
  • near-term support is 150 and resistance is 200

NDX:VXN ratio:
  • price is trading under the bearish influence of a recent moving average Death Cross formation and is just above this crossover
  • the RSI is just below the 50.00 level
  • the MACD and PMO are both trading under bearish crossovers
  • near-term support is 300 and resistance is 400

RUT:RVX ratio:
  • price is trading under the bearish influence of a recent moving average Death Cross formation and is below this crossover
  • the RSI is just below the 50.00 level
  • the MACD and PMO are both trading under bearish crossovers
  • near-term support is 60 and resistance is 80

To support higher prices from Friday's close, watch for the:
  • the RSI to retake and hold above 50.00 on all three ratios
  • SPX:VIX and RUT:RVX to pop and hold above the Death Cross levels
  • the NDX:VXN to hold above the Death cross level
  • the Death Cross to reverse and form a bullish Golden Cross on all three ratios
  • the MACD and PMO to reverse and form bullish crossovers on all three ratios

Otherwise, we may see traders continue to take some profits to year end in a series of tepid rallies, producing, either, further chop in a sideways direction, or, serious profit taking occur on some kind of negative catalyst...pushing the SPX to a low of 2400, or lower, as I described in this recent post.




With the US Unemployment Rate now at 3.5% (a low not see seen since 1969), it appears that there may be good reason that a strong economy may hold, at least, until the end of the year...and tip the odds in favour of a higher year-end close for these four US Major Indices.

Bottom Line: Keep an eye on the above three timeframes, price levels (index and ratio) and technical indicators to gauge possible short/medium/long-term direction and volatility for Q4 of 2019.


Trump's New Toy: The Latest Techno-Gadget

Invest in string...😉


Thursday, October 03, 2019

From This Week's "Smile File"...It Pays To Have A Sense Of Humour

...especially when you're US Attorney General Bill Barr...

Click here to play video clip

As a refresher...here's a link to a CNBC article on why President Trump recently floated the idea of buying Greenland. That idea never did receive a receptive response from their government...to put it politely. 😉

Political Editorial: Impeachment 101

* See UPDATES below...

The following is presented without prejudice.

Further to my various posts on the subject of impeaching President Trump, the following articles provide valuable information on the rules and past practices governing the impeachment process, itself...and whether they are being followed by Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in order that the President be given a fair hearing, with full bi-partisan and legal representation, as well as full transparency for the benefit of all Americans, on such a serious matter...it seems not.

Source: thehill.com 

Source: wsj.com 


Click here to view Tweet



Meanwhile, the Balance of Power in the SPX lies with sellers, as it hangs precariously beneath a bearish double-top formation near all-time highs, as shown on the following weekly chart.

I've identified major support and resistance levels, as well as gauges to monitor, in my recent posts here and here.


* UPDATE October 5...

Paul Gigot of The Journal Editorial Report  interviews former US Attorney General Michael Mukasey in the following video clips...






* UPDATE October 6...


Fox News TV Life, Liberty & Levin host, Mark Levin, interviews former Federal Prosecutor and former Whitewater Independent Counsel Robert Ray...

Click here to watch video

N.B. By the way, inasmuch as Democrats have not held a formal vote to authorize an impeachment inquiry on the House floor, Republicans are barred from cross-examining witnesses and from calling their own to testify, as well as lack subpoena power. Furthermore, the President is unable to have legal counsel present in those testimonies.

As well, the public is being kept in the dark as to what the charges are against the President, and any testimony against him is being conducted in secret behind closed doors. But, some of it is being deliberately cherry-picked and systematically (and illegally) leaked to the public in misleading format and out of context.

I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me that if this kind of ad-hoc shabby prosecution were attempted in a courtroom trial, the Democrats' behaviour and actions would be akin to withholding exculpatory evidence which the President's Counsel would, otherwise, be able to receive and present on his behalf...thereby opening the door for the declaration of a mistrial, as well as providing grounds for the judge to hold the Democrats in contempt of court, and possibly more misdeeds/offences, for such egregious conduct.

At the moment, Democrats are making a mockery of the U.S. Constitution and shredding the notion of due process and justice for all, thereby weakening the U.S. in the eyes of the rest of the world. Their vendetta to destroy and remove this President and the members of his administration by any means necessary is noteworthy...and the world is, no doubt, taking note.


* UPDATE October 8...

The White House has released this tweet...click this link to read their 8-page letter...


The following is an excerpt from that letter...


Tuesday, October 01, 2019

US Economic Data: ISM Manufacturing PMI Contraction Accelerates

After US Manufacturing PMI data was released this morning (October 1), US equities began to decline, as described in this CNBC article. They highlight three key points:


Source: CNBC.com 


How much this affects US equity and other world markets in Q4 of 2019 can now be weighed in addition to those I identified in my two recent posts here and here. Two more months of this data will be released before year end on November 1 and December 2...so keep an eye on sentiment and directional movements by the close on those days.

Here's how they closed today (note that the percentages gained/lost graph represents a combination of two days of movement (yesterday and today)...we'll see how they close out the week.



Source: indexq.org

Political Editorial: What's The Real Reason For The Rush By Democrats To Impeach President Trump?

The following is presented without prejudice.

Subsequent to my post of September 29, I was struck by this tweet today (October 1) by Reuters and the contents of their article.

Source: Reuters.com

Perhaps Democrats' real reason for their urgency and haste to impeach the President for any reason and by any means necessary before the 2020 election relates to the potential impact on the Supreme Court Justices if he were to be re-elected for another four years.

If what's mentioned in this article ever transpired, its effects would be in play for many years/decades after Trump's presidency is over.

We'll see whether this particular subject gains any kind of broader attention, debate and momentum by any other media platforms/networks any time soon...and whether that continues all the way through to November 2020, if President Trump is not successfully impeached before then.

On the other hand, if the President were impeached by both the House and Senate before then, no doubt, Democrats would likely then turn their efforts to impeach VP Pence, since he'd automatically assume the presidency. It's being reported that the Democrats are trying to impeach Trump by the end of this year.

If that were to happen, I assume they'd bring out all their tricks to, either impeach VP Pence, or find ways to discredit his presidency until the 2020 election.

HINT: Keep an eye on whether Democrats begin a smear campaign against Pence any time soon.

An "interesting" scenario...


Inasmuch as Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is next in the line of succession after the VP, she'd automatically become President, if the Vice President were also to be impeached before November 2020...an "interesting" scenario, indeed!

Source: usa.gov

* UPDATE October 2...

Well...that didn't take long! VP Mike Pence's name has now been mentioned twice (that I've heard) today as someone who should also be examined in an impeachment investigation since he's tied to the President...on MSNBC Chris Mathews in his interview of 2020 Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris, and in the Washington Post.

No doubt, we'll hear more of that as this latest mess continues to careen forward at breakneck speed.

Why is the media taking an advocacy role for impeachment of, not only Donald Trump, but also Mike Pence? Aren't they supposed to stick to reporting facts, instead of spinning reports into theories on behalf of the Democrats? Media pundits/reporters have been wildly hurling out unsubstantiated accusation after accusation and calling for Trump's impeachment since he was elected in November 2016! And, I've been writing about it since November 11, 2016.

N.B. More information regarding rules of the impeachment process can be read here.



From This Week's "Smile File"...Ever Had This Problem?

A bit of humour to lighten your week...


Sunday, September 29, 2019

Political Editorial: Trump Impeachment and US 2020 Election

The following is presented without prejudice.

When I step back from and disregard the daily hyperbolic political reports/accusations and quest by US Democrats and the majority of media pundits to investigate and impeach President Trump (which has been going on since before he was sworn in on January 20, 2017), I think that any negative fallout against him from that attempt will be mitigated and cannibalized by at least five major factors:
  1. at the moment, approximately 60% of Americans are against impeachment,
  2. there may be grave repercussions for Democrats when the long-awaited and soon-to-be-released DOJ IG's report on FISA abuse under the Obama administration leading up to and post-2016 presidential election is made public,
  3. there may be even more damaging repercussions for Democrats once the DOJ's review and report on the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation under the Obama administration is eventually made public,
  4. the reputation of Democrats' current front-runner 2020 presidential candidate, former Obama Vice President Joe Biden, will, no doubt, be negatively impacted as they proceed with an impeachment process over the Ukraine issue, and
  5. the lurch to the extreme far-left by Democrats and the 2020 Democrat candidates as they embrace and attempt to enforce their Green New Deal doctrine (GND) and socialist agendas will blow up the US National Debt and personal debt of every American to an unsustainable and unattainable level. In short, the US would be bankrupt! This Fox News TV headline caught my attention on Friday...it looks like their GND and socialist policies may not be so attractive for donors.

As of 7:00 pm ET today (September 29), the US National Debt stands at $22,634,538,392,628...by the time you read this, it will be higher. Debt per citizen stands at $68,641 and debt per taxpayer is $183,625.

Who can afford to suddenly pay off that amount, let alone anything outrageously higher, as Democrats are promising to implement with their election agendas?


At the moment, and as I understand things, the only thing that Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced is that a so-called "formal impeachment inquiry" is underway by a variety of Democrat House Chairmen/women and their committees. Exactly who is investigating what and why is unclear. Articles of Impeachment have not yet been drafted and Ms. Pelosi has not called for a formal vote of the entire House to begin impeachment hearings based on those articles.

So, unless and until that is done, these investigations are entirely one-sided, inasmuch as Republican committee members are hamstrung and unable to subpoena their own witnesses in order to conduct thorough, transparent, bona fide, bi-partisan, and fair impeachment hearings. 

The longer she drags out her "inquiry" process without calling for a full House vote will highlight Democrat mal-intent and subvert due process of Presidential rights in their rush to overturn the results of the 2016 election...and convey the message to the 63 million supporters who voted for Trump (Hillary's "basket of deplorables") that their vote was not legitimate and didn't matter.

Instead, it looks like a politically-motivated smear campaign is being waged against the President to:
  • try and damage his chances of being re-elected in 2020, rather than formally impeach him under Constitutional law,
  • pivot/divert attention away from Factors #2, #3 and 4, and
  • try and muddy the details and implications of implementing their socialist election policies/agenda

Furthermore, the promises made by Democrats (who ran and won in previously-held Republican districts in the 2018 midterm election) to work across the aisle with Republicans and the President on a variety of issues has now been exposed as empty and false political rhetoric.

At the end of the day, people (voters) care about jobs, housing, health, family, national and personal security, the rule of law, liberty, freedom and their rights...not day-to-day over-blown and under-delivered political crises.

At the moment, I don't see any better (and affordable) alternatives being seriously presented to the American people on any of those issues by Democrats than are currently being provided by the Trump administration and Republicans.

In the meantime, the chances that any beneficial legislation (for all Americans) can be passed on a bi-partisan basis in the House and Senate until after November 3, 2020 are nil.

BOTTOM LINE: 
How does this affect the US equity markets?

In the long run and based upon the above-noted five mitigating factors, I don't see that any further political impeachment rhetoric will have much of an overall impact on equity markets (barring the revelation of any, as yet unknown, major negative catalyst).

Instead, I've identified several gauges to monitor going forward to the end of 2019 in my last article. If anything, there may be a 60/40 chance that the SPX will, ultimately, move higher from last Friday's close...albeit on choppy, whipsaw trading.


N.B. For a further in-depth look at the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation, this video interview -- conducted on September 22 by Fox News TV host Mark Levin of author and former law enforcement officer and Secret Service agent Dan Bongino -- is illuminating and worth watching.

Click here to watch the video

This WSJ article by Michael B. Mukasey, former U.S. Attorney General (2007-09) and district judge (1988-2006), describes the impeachment process and contains some, potentially, exculpatory news (to the benefit of Trump) that Democrats may not welcome in their quest to impeach President Trump.

Source: WSJ.com

In any event, it looks like any President of the Unites States has a duty to investigate any information related to corruption/criminal activities, as outlined in this cover letter from former President Bill Clinton regarding a 1999 Treaty between the US and Ukraine (signed at Kiev in 1998 and ratified by the US Senate in 2000)...and, so it appears that President Trump was carrying out his duty during the course of his phone call with the Ukrainian President.


In a May 30, 2018 update on my post of May 9, 2018, I wrote the following summary of what the US political landscape looked like then...in the days leading up to the 2018 mid-term election...


I've framed the above paragraph in red to illustrate that, even then, Democrats were transparent in their real agenda to overturn the results of the 2016 presidential election by impeaching the President using whatever means they deem to be appropriate.

It looks like they're now proceeding full steam ahead, while bypassing normal rules governing the impeachment process, according to this disturbing Wall Street Journal article...

Source: WSJ.com

And, so, I'll re-post what I said in a subsequent July 26, 2019 update on my article...


Furthermore, with Joe Biden now demanding in a letter to various media outlets that they stop booking interviews of President Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani, as well as another 2020 Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris calling for Trump's Twitter account to be suspended from their social media platform, it's clear where the Democrat policies are headed...namely, towards the silencing of free speech and dictating what information is appropriate by whom and for whom.

I wonder how foreign investors would view such a move and whether they'd be so eager to continue to invest in American companies and US Treasuries. What effect would that have on the economy?

Democrats' real reason for their urgency and haste
 to impeach the President for any reason 
and by any means necessary 
before the 2020 election?

Perhaps Democrats' real reason for their urgency and haste to impeach the President for any reason and by any means necessary before the 2020 election relates to the potential impact on the Supreme Court Justices if he were to be re-elected for another four years...if what's mentioned in this article ever transpired, its effects would be in play for many years/decades after Trump's presidency is over.

Click here to read my more detailed thoughts on this topic.

Source: Reuters.com

More drama emerged on October 2...this time about Democrat House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff and the mishandling and misreporting of the so-called "whistleblower's" complaint...


So, as Democrats carry on with this quasi-impeachment circus while searching for a crime (and block Republicans from participating in the investigatory process), Congress remains in gridlock and no work gets done on behalf of their voters. What fallout will occur to their livelihood and the economy? If today's stock market plunge is any indication, then the US is in for a very rough ride until November 2020!

Give yourself a round of applause, Nancy. Because I doubt if American voters will.