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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

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Thursday, January 16, 2020

President Trump's Legacy: In The Making...


I've written a number of posts over the past couple of years on the subject of President Trump's legacy, some of which have been quite critical (scathing, to be exact) of his actions, some in defence of his other actions, some critical of situations created by others against him, and some of which have showcased his achievements. I tried to capture, as best I could, what I saw as truths, at that time.

My most recent post on that subject contained a document that outlined 319 achievements that Mr. Trump has made in the 3 years since he took office.

I would note that, as of today's date (January 16), the U.S. has, under President Trump, successfully signed new trade agreements with South Korea, Japan, Mexico/Canada (USMCA), and China (Phase I).

The USMCA was approved by the Senate today (approved by the House on December 19, 2019) and the China Phase I deal was signed by the President and China yesterday. Both of these deals were made this week while Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's impeachment team delivered their Two Articles of Impeachment to the Senate for their upcoming trial of President Trump, which will begin next Tuesday.

It's ironic that, while the President has been busy working for the people of the United States and producing actual tangible results (319 of them), Democrat Congressmen/women have been working to remove him and overturn the results of the 2016 election, and have accomplished nothing on behalf of the voters. The contrast could not be more extreme.


The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has rallied from its November 2016 low of 2083.79 to a high of 3317.50, reached today...for a gain of 55.61% since the November 8, 2016 Presidential election.

Interestingly, the market did not implode, in spite of all the dire predictions made by numerous agonizing/hand-wringing media pundits, political opponents, and economic analysts at that time.

The following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it's well on its way to its target of 3350, as mentioned in my post of January 9.

I've shown the input value on the Average True Range (ATR) as one period to show that, as of today, it's not registering at an extreme high reading on the monthly timeframe, suggesting that this rally has not begun to turn frothy and overbought, yet.

Likewise, the Balance of Power indicator has not yet reached an extreme high, suggesting further upside is possible.

For the time being, the U.S. equity market seems unfazed by Democrat impeachment shenanigans.


P.S.

To clarify...it appears that the "Wall Street Powers-That-Be" have not been encumbered by negative emotions about Trump, nor have they stopped to second-guess (or examine in detail) the soundness of his numerous deals and executive orders that he's completed during the past 3 years. Instead, it seems they're satisfied that they ARE concluded, thereby eliminating indecision, which seems to have more of a crippling (or dampening) impact on their decision-making in the markets.

So, watch for an ATR extreme spike, or a series of spikes, on the SPX monthly chart as a potential signal that "TPTB" have, either, lost faith in the President, or that an outside unforeseen event is triggering a market turnaround.

In other words, follow the money. And ATR spikes (with an input value of one period) may provide a clue as to turnaround points and where money may be headed. This is something I've been monitoring on ETFs for approximately the past 10 years...seems to be a good tool to have in one's kit.