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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Spring

Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Fri. Apr. 3 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Apr. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. Apr. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Apr. 15 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. Apr. 15 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Apr. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Trump's Promises Made & Kept

So far, there have been 319 achievements and promises kept in 3 years by President Trump...this should look good on his resume...










He may have been impeached by the House just before Christmas (or was he?), but he's still in the White House...


* UPDATE January 18, 2020...

President Trump signed a Phase I trade agreement with China today...while House Democrat Speaker *Nancy Pelosi was busy signing the House Democrat's Articles of Impeachment.

Which one is actually busy doing the people's work that will benefit all Americans for years to come?






* UPDATE January 28...


President Trump formally unveiled a peace plan today for Israel and the Palestinians alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The document can be read at this link.








* UPDATE January 29...

President Trump signed the USMCA trade agreement today, as passed in the House and Senate.







2020 State of the Union Address

N.B. President Trump will deliver the 2020 State of the Union address to the Congress on Tuesday, February 4. The theme is the 'great American comeback,' and will put forth a vision of 'relentless optimism,' as described in this article in The Hill.

President Trump's 2019 State of the Union address

* UPDATE February 04...

President Trump's 2020 State of the Union address...



WOW...Congratulations,*Nancy Pelosi, you've just increased President Trump's re-election chances by this petty, petulant temper tantrum...and demeaned your legacy in the process...



Click link to watch the video clip

House Speaker #PelosiTheRipper disrespected all of these 
people who were honoured by the President in his speech...
by ripping up their distingished legacies...
shameful!
She should by censured by the House and resign in disgrace.


Click this link to view video



From This Week's "Smile File"...A Perfect Start

This one never gets old...my wish for all of you...that someone helps you get off to a perfect start...😊


China's Shanghai Index Heats Up

China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) heats up in anticipation of the signing of the new U.S./China Phase I Trade Deal, expected on January 15, 2020.


The monthly chart of the SSEC shows price has just broken above a downtrend line that began at the highs of June 2015.

Major resistance lies at 3086.91 (a 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level), while major price support sits at 3000.

The Balance of Power on this timeframe favours the buyers and is nearing an all-time high set back in April 2007, after which price spiked up from 3197 to 6124 by the end of October that year, for a gain of 2,927 points during that 7-month time period.

If price breaks and holds above 3087, its next major resistance (40% Fib) level is 3486.55...a level not seen since January 2018.

However, if, for some reason, the Phase I Trade Deal is not signed, and if the SSEC breaks and holds below 3000, then I'd look for a drop to new lows to, at least 2700, or lower.


2020 is almost here...Happy New Year's Eve!


Sunday, December 29, 2019

SPX: What's In Store For The 2020s & 2030s?

THE LONG VIEW INTO THE FUTURE...



Each candle on the following chart of the SPX represents a period of one year.

From 1932 to 1972, it, essentially, rallied for 40 years, particularly for the latter 30 years. From 1974 to 2000, its bull run lasted for 26 years. For the past 10 years, it's also been in a strong bull market.

Very simply, history shows that, for the most part, the SPX has been a strong (BUY) candidate for longer-term investors over an average of 30 years running, and that is likely to be repeated for another 10-20 years, generally speaking.


As I write this post on December 28 (with only 2 trading days left in 2019), the following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it has gained 340% from its March 2009 lows.

The Balance of Power is currently under the control of buyers and has yet to match prior highs...hinting of further upside potential for 2020.

Furthermore, if the 2020s are as strong as the 2010s, look for a similar percentage gain through to 2030...and, possibly again to 2040...before we eventually see a meaningful pullback/consolidation for, perhaps, 10 years through to 2050.


As long as the Technology Sector (Nasdaq Composite Index) remains strong through 2020, as I wrote in my post of December 26, no doubt that will bode well for the SPX.

The following monthly chart shows a gain of 554% for the past 10 years. The gains in the tech sector have outpaced the U.S. markets, in general. That is likely to continue and, possibly, strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years as innovation accelerates...buoying the rest of the markets, in turn...one to watch!


N.B. By the way, the SPX managed to hit my Q4 target of 3233 by the end of this year, as I forecast in my post of September 29...(the monthly chart below is from that post).


P.S. So, as I asked in my post of December 24 [one-day $34.4 Billion U.S. retail sales and $17 Trillion global market gains (21.68%) this year], "What's not to like, Joe?"

Happy New Year!

Thursday, December 26, 2019

Nasdaq 9000 Tagged...9100 By Year End?...10,000 In 2020?

Technology has been one hot sector this year. Take a look at the percentages gained by the U.S. Major Indices, so far, this year.


The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) hit and closed above 9000 today (December 26)...an all-time (round number) high, as shown on the following monthly chart.

The Balance of Power lies with buyers on this timeframe and has yet to equal previous highs, potentially signalling there is further upside.

The next major resistance level (potential target) sits at the 1.5% external Fibonacci Retracement at 9104.87...just over 80 points away.

Will we see 9100 hit by year end?

And, on a longer-term perspective, will it continue to rally to eventually hit its next milestone round number at 10,000 sometime in 2020? The 2.0% external Fibonacci Retracement level (potential target) lies at 10,076.43.

After all, it gained a total of 2,565.33 points, so far, this year...so 1,000 next year would not be out of the question.


Perhaps FNGU will offer some clues as to tech strength or weakness. I last wrote about it in my post of December 8.

The following weekly chart shows that it, subsequently, spiked sharply upward, blew through its 50% Fibonacci Retracement level and closed today at 62.75...just 0.01 point shy of its 60% Fib level.

The Balance of Power lies with buyers on this timeframe and has made an all-time new high.

If price can blow through and hold above 62.76, then its next major resistance (potential target) lies above at 73.74...the 78.6% Fib level.


Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Biggest Biden Gaffe of 2019



The monthly chart of World Indexes shows the meteoric rise of global markets, in general, this year (in fact, a gain of 21.68%, so far, in 2019), with the Balance of Power favouring buyers and its next resistance level around 2340.

What's not to like, Joe?


'Twas The Night Before Christmas





Click this link to watch the Norad Santa tracker live video...


Thursday, December 19, 2019

TSLA: Next Target 450?

Tesla's (TSLA) meteoric rise from June this year has sent it to all-time highs, as shown on the following monthly chart...and has resulted in a 119.67% gain since then, as shown on the next graph. It's been heavily favoured above the FAANGs.

Based on the trajectory of the Andrew's Pitchfork formation, its next major resistance lies around the 450 level.

The Balance of Power lies firmly with buyers and is approaching an all-time high. Watch for that to continue on this longer-term timeframe to support a further rally.



On a shorter daily timeframe, as long as the RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators continue to rise, watch for further buying to, potentially, push the price to 450. However, as these indicators are approaching a retest of prior highs, we may see the buying slow or consolidate for awhile, before resuming a trek to that target.



Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Nancy's Lump Of Coal For Americans

* See UPDATES below...



What are voters asking?...


How do they feel?...

Source: FoxNews.com

GOP House Leader McCarthy's Resolution on Democrat Congressional abuse of power...





N.B. President Trump's impeachment letter to Congress can be read at this link.



N.B.
  • Both Articles of Impeachment of President Trump were passed by a majority of Democrats today in the House of Representatives
  • No Republicans voted "YES"...they all voted "NO."
  • 2 Democrats voted "NO" on one Article and 3 Democrats voted "NO" on the other Article.
  • So, the only Bi-partisan impeachment vote today was on the "NO" side for both Articles of Impeachment in the House of Representatives. 
  • The timing of the Senate trial has yet to be announced.

The legacy of the Democrats will forever be burdened by their unfair and unconstitutional political "hit job" against President Trump and his 63 million voters.

It was a farce, their Articles of Impeachment were nonsensical, and they made a mockery of the impeachment process, as well as due process and justice, for all the world to witness...and weakened their standing among world leaders as a result.

They, furthermore, have enabled and emboldened the leaders of the countries that are America's enemies, such as Iran, North Korea, Russia and China to continue with their nefarious activities that are at odds with America's security and national interest.


And, don't forget this one...


Congratulations, Nancy, you've torn the country apart on baseless and false accusations for purely political gains and weakened it in the process. You've deemed, not only Trump as naughty, but his 63 million voters, as well. Hence, you've delivered them their lump of coal in time for Christmas, just as you promised before the impeachment inquiry and hearings ever began.


An incredible Congressional abuse of power has been performed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats and a dangerous (low-standard) precedent for future impeachments has been set!

Their legacy has been written. 


Source: NYTimes.com



* UPDATE December 19...

Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is now threatening to hold off sending their Articles of Impeachment to the Senate because she wants to first approve their trial process. I believe that is unconstitutional, based on what I'm reading. Besides, the Senate did not have the right to tell the House how to conduct its impeachment hearings, so why does she think she has such a right!


Click this link to view video









"A Constitutional extortion mechanism"...

Click this link to view video

So, impeached or not impeached?...or "impeachment lite?"...

Source: FoxNews.com

Source: GatestoneInstitute.org

It seems like Democrats are unsure whether they have a bona fide impeachment case to present to the Senate for a trial...


And, so on and on they, with a little help from their friends, stir the pot...trying to conjure up the perfect brew...hoping for a magic cure to what ails them...


Chameleon Pelosi has invented many roles for herself...from Democrat Speaker of the House...to Senate Majority Leader-wannabe...to, now, the Grinch who stole free speech!


"Prayerful & Solemn Nancy," indeed! 👀



* UPDATE December 22...

Watch this explosive interview today by Fox News Mark Levin of former Circuit Judge, Solicitor General, and Independent Counsel Ken Starr regarding the House Democrats' impeachment process of President Trump.

Click this link to access the video
(and login to your service provider to watch)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

* UPDATE January 18, 2020...


Now that the House finally delivered their Two Articles of Impeachment to the Senate this past week (or, as more aptly stated, "foisted" them upon the Senate), and the Senate will begin their trial on Tuesday, it seems to me that any trial would be cut and dry.


In other words, the House has dealt its hand (the formal Impeachment document) and the Senate should play their own hand in dealing with it by simply considering the "Four Corners of the Document"...just like Special Counsel Robert Mueller did in his testimony before Congress when he defended his report on Trump-Russia collusion last year.

At the most, the Senate should allow the House team managers to present their case, and the President's legal team to present their defence (including the phone transcript between the President and the Ukrainian President)...then take a vote on whether to convict or acquit...PERIOD.

Forget allowing any witnesses and more last-minute unvetted/uncorroborated documents that weren't included in the House's impeachment investigation, as they'd be irrelevant to the formal Impeachment document at hand ("Four Corners of the Document") ...PERIOD.

If the House failed to present constitutional grounds on which to impeach the President, based on their own investigation and as described in their own formal Impeachment document ("Four Corners of the Document"), then acquit the President and get back to work!

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal has made a similar argument, but have stated it more eloquently, here.

Source: wsj.com

President Trump's response to the House Articles of Impeachment was issued today...


* UPDATE January 20...


* UPDATE January 21...

Source: abcnews.go.com

* UPDATE January 22...


How Democrat Trial Managers are preparing for the Senate trial...


For a reminder of what transpired in these two cases, I've written extensively on them here (Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh) and here (Russiagate).


* UPDATE January 25...

If the Democrat House impeachment managers went to the Senate to lie, insult, bully and to try to intimidate the Senators, they certainly succeeded in that objective as they presented their case over the past three days this week...not a smart strategy, in my opinion. We'll see what the Senators think of their abusive behaviour once they're eventually ready to render judgement on the impeachment.

The trial continued today as President Trump's legal defence team presented their opening arguments -- shown in the following 2-hour video -- which were delivered in a, refreshingly, professional and respectful manner.

They will continue with their presentation on Monday.


* UPDATE January 27...

President Trump's legal defence team continued their presentation to the Senate today (which has, so far, shredded the arguments made by the Democrat House impeachment managers and the validity of the 2 Articles of Impeachment), as shown in the following 8-hour video...


Click this link to view video

The following quote by Alan Dershowitz (in reference to Representative Waters' assertion) came from part of today's presentation...


The President's legal defence team will continue their arguments tomorrow.

* UPDATE January 28...

President Trump's legal defence team concluded their presentation to the Senate today, as shown in the following 2-hour video...



This excerpt of White House Counsel Pat Cipollone's final statement today is especially noteworthy and ironic...


There will be a Q & A period of 8 hours each on Wednesday and Thursday by Senators to the Democrat House impeachment managers and to President Trump's legal defence team.

* UPDATE January 29...

John Bolton's "About Face"

Here's what President Trump's former National Security Advisor John Bolton said about the President's two phone calls with the Ukrainian President in an August 2019 interview.


Well...well...well...and this...



Here's what he's purported to have written in his unpublished book according to this January 27, 2020 NYT article...which is a totally opposite version of what he said in the above interview and tweet.

Source: nytimes.com

Which version of events is correct?

If the NYT's story is correct, can Mr. Bolton's opinion be trusted if he can't even get his stories straight about what he thinks happened during those phone calls and is the crux of President Trump's impeachment trial?

It seems to me he would be a conflicted witness, at best, and an outright liar, at worst, if he was called to testify in the impeachment trial, as Senate Democrats are now demanding.

For your information, Mr. Bolton's full August 27, 2019 interview can be viewed here...


In any event, this January 23 letter from the National Security Council prohibits the release of Mr. Bolton's manuscript until it has been thoroughly vetted and declassified, so, I'd assume he would also be banned from speaking about its contents at this time...and likely not suitable as a witness in this impeachment trial, if he were summoned by the Democrat House impeachment managers.


Furthermore, Today's Federalist article (and video) reveal damaging information pertaining to Mr. Bolton's character and his honesty...it just keeps getting worse for him.

Source: thefederalist.com

So, a self-confessed would-be liar has indicated, at the last minute, that he wants to testify against President Trump. What's his motive for doing such a thing? Well, it's plain to see that he wants to create sensational headlines and generate lots of interest for his upcoming book (whose manuscript is still under review by the NSC) and which, coincidentally, was just posted on Amazon for pre-order...perhaps money is also a motivating factor?

I've heard several Democrat Senators posit to TV interviewers in the past couple of days that, while they're not lawyers, they want to be sure that they have the full picture of all the facts, including the calling of additional witnesses (over and above the 17 witnesses that were interviewed by the House Intelligence Committee (neither Republicans nor the President were permitted to call their own witnesses or cross-examine the 17 during those Committee hearings). Furthermore, it sounds like they'll be guided in their final vote to convict or acquit by whether they were given the opportunity to hear from more witnesses (regardless of their credibility)...simply regurgitating a talking point of their party leaders in the House and Senate.

I'm not a lawyer, either, but anyone with an ounce of common sense, who has actually listened carefully to the arguments made by the President's legal defence team, would realize that there are three basic facts of the case:
  1. Democrat House Speaker *Nancy Pelosi failed to follow Constitutional law in her declaration that an impeachment inquiry was beginning without obtaining, first, such a vote by the entire House to authorize it,
  2. the House Intel Committee and the Judiciary Committee did not follow a fair and just process under the terms of the Constitution during their hearings, and
  3. both of their Impeachment Articles are invalid, inasmuch as they do not fall into any of the Constitution's impeachment categories
...and, therefore, no further witnesses will change those facts...especially those with credibility issues whose testimony has not been corroborated or whose claims have, in fact, already been flatly refuted by others.

Such a scenario would set up a last-minute "gotcha" case of "he said...she said"...just like the stunt that Senate Democrats pulled during the Judge Kavanaugh Supreme Court Justice hearing conducted in 2018...what a circus that turned out to be with their witnesses failing miserably in their arguments. Democrats ignored due process and justice and made a mockery of that whole process...and they're trying to pull that stunt in this impeachment trial. I wrote an extensive article about that case here.

Even Adam Schiff (current Democrat House Intelligence Committee Chairman and one of the Democrat House impeachment managers) said in 2005 that John Bolton had a "lack of credibility." And, now he wants to call him as his impeachment witness...and send the whole mess down a rabbit holeThis is utter nonsense!


By the way, Ambassador Volker, who was one of the House Democrat impeachment managers' witnesses, doesn't seem to have a problem with the way President Trump handled the aid to Ukraine...


And...


The "Biden Rule"

By the way, thanks to (then Senator) Joe Biden's former arguments against impeachment witnesses in 1999 who said that the Senate need not hold a 'full blown trial' with witnesses and testimony (President Bill Clinton's trial), he cleared the way for the same arguments to be made in denying further witnesses and documents in this trial...check out all the details in this Federalist article (including Biden's memorandum to Senators).


Source: thefederalist.com

It's time for Senators to get on with the business of either convicting or acquitting the President (based on what was presented by the Democrat House impeachment managers and outlined in their "Four Corners of the Document", and based on arguments presented by the President's legal defence team) as soon as the Q & A period is finished by the end of this week and get back to doing the people's work! PERIOD!

* UPDATE January 31...

After two days of a Q & A session by Senators to the Democrat House Impeachment managers and the President's legal defence team on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by further arguments by the managers and the defence team today, the Senate took a vote today on whether to allow witnesses to testify. The vote failed by 51-49.

Next Monday and Tuesday the Senators will have a chance to voice their comments, and both teams will present closing arguments.

The Senate will take a vote on Wednesday on whether to convict or acquit President Trump.

Stay tuned!...

* UPDATE February 02...

In the meantime...

"The Old Switcheroo" Game

Thanks to *Nancy Pelosi's fumbled impeachment shenanigans, here's a preview of what could happen if Joe Biden is elected President in November 2020. 😮

She's certainly lowered (all but eliminated) the bar on impeachment standards in the House to pave the way for such a scenario!

Something to ruminate (along with your hamburger) during today's Super Bowl half-time show...😏



Source: bloomberg.com

* UPDATE February 03...

'Impeach him, regardless of any valid Constitutional reason'

This nonsensical mantra has been regurgitated non-stop by Democrats and the majority of the media since his inauguration.

In spite of this, President Trump's hundreds of accomplishments, thus far, have been impressive...something he can tout at his State of the Union address before Congress tomorrow.



Click this link to view the video

* UPDATE February 4...

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's statement on President Trump's impeachment trial...he will vote to acquit the President...




* UPDATE February 5...

Acquitted!

President Trump was acquitted of both House Articles of Impeachment by the Senate today...







PERIOD!