THE LONG VIEW INTO THE FUTURE...
on the following chart of the SPX
represents a period of one year
From 1932 to 1972
, it, essentially, rallied for 40 years
, particularly for the latter 30 years
. From 1974 to 2000
, its bull run lasted for 26 years
. For the past 10 years
, it's also been in a strong bull market
Very simply, history shows that, for the most part, the SPX
has been a strong (BUY) candidate
for longer-term investors
over an average of 30 years running
, and that is likely to be repeated
for another 10-20 years
, generally speaking.
As I write this post on December 28 (with only 2 trading days left in 2019), the following monthly chart
of the SPX
shows that it has gained 340% from its March 2009 lows
The Balance of Power
is currently under the control of buyers
and has yet to match prior highs...hinting of further upside potential for 2020
Furthermore, if the 2020s
are as strong as the 2010s
, look for a similar percentage gain through to 2030
...and, possibly again to 2040
...before we eventually see a meaningful pullback/consolidation
for, perhaps, 10 years through to 2050
As long as the Technology Sector
(Nasdaq Composite Index
) remains strong through 2020
, as I wrote in my post of December 26,
no doubt that will bode well for the SPX
The following monthly chart
shows a gain of 554% for the past 10 years
. The gains in the tech sector have outpaced
the U.S. markets, in general. That is likely to continue and, possibly, strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years
as innovation accelerates...buoying the rest of the markets, in turn
...one to watch!
By the way, the SPX
managed to hit my Q4 target of 3233 by the end of this year
, as I forecast in my post of September 29
...(the monthly chart below is from that post).
So, as I asked in my post of December 24
[one-day $34.4 Billion
U.S. retail sales and $17 Trillion
global market gains (21.68%
) this year], "What's not to like, Joe?"
|Happy New Year!|
* UPDATE Feb. 5, 2023...
From the date this article was posted, the SPX rallied another 1,600 points to a high of 4817.88 by January 2022, as shown on the following monthly chart.
It, subsequently, pulled back to a low of 3490 by October 2022 and has rallied somewhat to 4136.48.
The monthly timeframe is still in a technical downtrend and price action during 2022 has been very choppy and volatile, producing very large daily, weekly and monthly swings.
I analyzed a number of markets in my 2023 Market Forecast and came to the following conclusions...
So, where the SPX
goes from here, is anybody's guess...for now...but, I have a feeling that the volatility, choppiness, and large-scale swings
have not yet disappeared.
And, with Joe Biden as the current President (since January 2021), I'm sure that those conditions will persist for, at least, the rest of 2023...and, possibly, until the end of his first term in January 2025.
And, as I concluded in my aforementioned forecast, the SPX may drop to 3200, or lower, either before the end of this year, or by the end of Biden's first term...BEFORE we see the SPX resume its historical BULL RUN into the end of the 2020s and 2030s.