Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Art Deco Xmas Lady

Art Deco Xmas Lady



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Thursday, September 29, 2016

Deutsche Bank: From Riches to Rags in 9 Years

From an all-time high of 103.14 in May of 2007 to an all-time low of 10.19 (and close at 10.875) today (Thursday), Germany's biggest bank continues its sink into the abyss, as shown on the Monthly chart of Deutsche Bank.

The 3 technical indicators shown on the following Daily chart are no longer supporting a slowdown of its downtrend (as I had reported in my post of February 8th)...rather, they are now suggesting a resumption and acceleration of a stock dump.

This bank stock is now sitting at a tiny fraction of its former value...systemic-risk or value stock? A picture is worth a thousand words...

Even more stunning, is the meteoric drop in value (from its June 2007 high of 228.96 to today's close of 5.80) for Germany's second-largest bank, Commerzbank, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

All three technical indicators on its Daily chart below also show evidence of renewed and accelerating selling pressure...reflecting great weakness in Germany's banking sector, despite all of the ECB's various monetary stimulus attempts made, to date, to prop up Europe's financial woes from the onslaught of the 2007/08 financial crisis/recession.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

World Market Index Hovers at Make-or-Break Level

All three indicators on this 5-Year Daily chart of the World Market Index are slightly above their respective zero levels, with price hovering above the 50 moving average. They'll all need to hold at or above those levels, otherwise a sharp failure would likely spell big problems for U.S. equities.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Volatility Back Into "Major Conflict Zone"

After today's (Friday's) 53.5 point drop on the SPX, volatility has now fallen back into the "Major Conflict Zone," as depicted on the following 20-Year Monthly ratio chart of SPX:VIX.

As I mentioned here and here, a drop and hold below the 150 Bull/Bear line-in-the-sand level would see a retest of the June 27th lows. You can see from the 60-Day 60-Minute ratio chart below, price closed today at 121.5. There are two remaining gaps below that level yet to be filled, which, when filled, would realize that retest.

Each candle on the following ratio chart depicts One Year. You can see clearly that today's close sits just above the 116.61 open of the 2007 candle.

Each candle on the following ratio chart depicts One-Quarter of One Year. As of today's closing level, upward Momentum is lower now than it was at the open of the Q1 2007 candle...hinting that the buying and bullishness seen on the SPX this year (which pushed Momentum to an all-time parabolic level on the Monthly ratio chart), is, in fact, weak, unsustainable, and without serious merit.


Volatility has now risen sharply, after a summer of complacency. Look for wild swings in both directions on these ratio charts as long as price remains below 150. And, if it drops below 80.00, after a retest of the June 27th lows, I'd say that equity markets are in serious trouble and in for a substantial drop.