UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
The second percentage gained/lost graph shows gains made for only the month of February until Wednesday's close. The Dow Transports has been the leader this month, while the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Dow Utilities all outperformed the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq is only slightly above break-even.
This tells me that market participants have recently been favouring large-cap, more defensive, stocks over riskier, high-beta small-cap and tech stocks, as they have been grinding higher toward their all-time high levels. I'll be watching to see if money begins to start flowing into small-cap and tech stocks any time soon to signal that the markets are willing to take on more risk that may be needed to push all of the Major Indices to new all-time highs and sustain that kind of momentum going forward for the balance of the year. Otherwise, we could see some serious profit-taking and pullback begin in the not-too-distant future in all Indices.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
There have also been mass job cuts at a multitude of other banks, such as 11,000 announced at Citigroup in December 2012 (on top of 96,500 job cuts already announced from 2007 to 2011, as reported in this Reuters article) and 16,000 at Bank of America, as I wrote about in this post of September 20, 2012.
Presumably the Banks, who are the first beneficiaries of the Fed's monetary policy, do not support the Fed's goal...makes me wonder, who does support it and whether or not it's actually working, despite what data says about the mild drop, thus far, in unemployment.
This UPDATE February 27th from Reuters shows even more Bank job cuts to come:
With Bersani winning a majority in the Italian Chamber of Deputies, but no party winning an outright majority in the Senate, the result is a hung parliament.
At the time of my writing this post around noon EST on Tuesday, Italy's stock market closed down 799.79 points (-4.89%), and European, Asian, Indian and other world markets are down, as shown below...hardly surprising as world markets have pulled back slightly from their (overbought) four-year highs.
We'll see where world markets (and institutional confidence) go from here, in the short term, as they analyze potential effects on their global investments, and as final election results become known in more detail. If Italy does, indeed, have a hung parliament, the EU and ECB will, once again, have to swing into damage-control mode, putting them in a "defensive" stance...hardly conducive to support pushing (and, more importantly, convincingly sustain) European markets higher above their recent four-year highs.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Last Monday (February 18th) my male pussycat, Smudge, who was 14 years old, passed away. He was with me from the age of 8 weeks. He's been my companion and comforter for the past two years since my husband died, and since Smudge's sister died three years ago. My family of four is now a family of one.
- worry (as I suspected he was gravely ill);
- which progressed to extreme panic and fear (of not knowing what decisions I'd have to make and the ensuing consequences);
- and then moved on to profound sadness;
- and then to numbness and disbelief;
- and, now, to somewhere just slightly above (and more positive than) numbness, as I come to terms with what has happened and where I go from here.
These range of emotions, as well as losing those whom I love, have re-enforced the old saying that "nothing lasts forever." People, events, places, things, and stuff, in general, are transitory and are not ours to keep or possess, but, simply, to borrow and enjoy while they are in our lives. I'm finally realizing that to yearn for something or someone that is in our past (and gone) is not a healthy place to be...it uses up valuable energy and weakens my abilities to, firstly, decide what it is that I desire in life now, and, secondly, from recognizing it and acting on when it tries to show up and become a part of my new life.
You may wonder why I'm writing about this in my trading Blog. I realized today that I've experienced these same emotions when I've made trading losses.
- First, the worry each morning (as a daytrader) that I won't be able to make money that day;
- second, extreme panic and fear that I won't know what to do if the trade goes against me;
- third, profound sadness when I've lost a trade;
- fourth, numbness and disbelief that this loss happened to me;
- and fifth, somewhere more positive than numbness as I try to assess the trade and move on to the next opportunity.
There has to be more progression from the fifth state (in my life and in trading)...to that of being in a state of "having and happiness" (since the "Law of Attraction" works without fail and we will get more of what we have or are experiencing in life). It won't do me any good to beat myself up over my loss or yearn for its return by trying to "make up for that loss on the next trade." That never works. It only clouds my judgement and puts me in a state of "not having something that I can never have" (the lost trade)...not a good place to be as it's, simply, a dead-end.
Perhaps you can recall a time when you made a split-second decision and knew that it was the right one...hang onto that experience/feeling and know that you can and will make the right decision at the right time in all areas of your life...do not worry that you can't, because you already have and you can do so again, at all times. It will keep you sane. Stay in the moment, accept things as they are, deal with them (knowing that you can), be grateful for what you do have, and move forward toward your desires, for they do exist (as unformed probabilities of existence)...look for them and they will eventually show up and you'll recognize them when they do...then, and only then, you'll know what to do (not a moment before)...it will feel natural and easy and will be the best option (for you) in the world. Everything will work out in the end...it always does, if you allow it.
I may add more to this article from time to time as more is revealed to me on this subject in the days/weeks/months ahead. In the meantime, I thank you for taking the time to read what I've shared, and I wish each one of you a happy, stress-free, rewarding, and exciting life! :-)
The following little snippet was e-mailed to me by my "personal cheerleader" (my dear sister-in-law) just as I was finishing this article, but hadn't yet posted it. Amazed, I thought it was timely and pertinent to my post, so I've included it here...co-incidence or the "Law of Attraction" at work?
Friday, February 22, 2013
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- VIX and SPX:VIX Ratio
- RUT:RVX Ratio
- Advance/Decline Issues Index
- Number of Stocks Above 20-50-200-Day Moving Averages
- NYSI Summation Index
- 30-Year Bonds
- U.S. $
- China's Shanghai Index
6 Major Indices
9 Major Sectors
VIX and SPX:VIX Ratio
Advance/Decline Issues Index
Number of Stocks Above 20-50-200-Day Moving Averages
NYSI Summation Index
China's Shanghai Index
Those in charge who make decisions that are guided by intuition and based on the acceptance of the reality of the situation, together with a desire to resolve it, will make enlightened decisions that finalize this matter, while those who make ego-based decisions will not deal with the matter and will "kick the can down the road," once again. We'll soon see where the collective political thoughts/desires lean on this issue.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
A look at a 60 min (market hours only) chart of the Russell 2000 e-mini Futures Index (TF) shows that price is currently trading in the vicinity of its lower channel, Monthly Volume Profile POC (pink horizontal line), and Monthly VWAP (yellow). A break and hold below 900.00 could signal much more weakness to come, depending on whether we see increasing volumes on the decline (note yesterday's and today's volume spikes).
I'm mindful of my last comments on the VIX.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
By the way, a bearish (50 & 200) moving average "Death Cross" is forming today on the Daily timeframe, hinting at further weakness, unless it resolves itself soon.
Platinum failed to break out and hold above this large triangle and is swirling around its 5-Year Weekly Volume Profile POC. Further weakness could send it down to its confluence level of the 50 & 200 smas and lower triangle (note that we have a very recent bearish "Death Cross" formation on this timeframe, so price has not yet been resolved to the upside).
Further to my post of February 19th, price has fallen today on the Commodities ETF (DBC). We'll see if the 50 sma (red) holds on the Weekly timeframe at 27.66.
I'm also watching price action on the AUD/USD Forex pair as it swirls around its Weekly 50 sma before it breaks out of its trading range.
In conclusion, I'd say that Commodities, in general, are in "neutral territory," with a hint of further weakness waiting in the wings, and the Weekly 50 smas playing a role in either providing solid support, or giving way for this Sector and commodity currency (Aussie $) to weaken further.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Since then, the Commodities ETF (DBC) broke above trendline resistance, and is attempting to bounce after a re-test of near-term support, as shown on the Weekly chart below. Near-term resistance is the upper Weekly Bollinger Band at 28.70. A break and hold above that level could signal a new rally in store for Commodities, in general.
Additionally, the AUD/USD Forex pair is bouncing off its lower Weekly Bollinger Band and a major support level. A hold above the 50 sma (red) could send it up to its mid or upper Bollinger Band.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD has advanced modestly, so far, this week, as shown on the Weekly chart below. It remains above its major support level of 1.3255ish, as I last discussed in my post of February 7th, but below its 200 sma (pink). Until we see price regain and hold above the 200 sma, with the 50 sma (red) crossing above the 200 sma, it's still under the bearish influences of an existing, longer-term moving average Death Cross formation.
We'll see if further support/buying comes into play this week on these four E-mini Futures Indices and the Euro, or whether any meaningful weakness enters in one to, potentially, negatively influence the others.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- 30-Year Bonds
- U.S. $
6 Major Indices
9 Major Sectors
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Meanwhile, the Bull/Bear standoff continues as we await a breakout/down, as shown on the 60 min (market hours only) charts below of the 4 major E-mini Futures Indices.
Perhaps we'll see more definitive movement after Monday's holiday.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Since then, it has been slowly grinding higher and has made a small gain of 48.50 points, as shown on the 60 min (market hours only) chart below...very often retracting (repeatedly) small moves up (shaking out long and short positions), as it inches its way to a potential target of 970.00 by the end of this month.
Unless the pace and size of any further upside moves picks up from here, I can see that it won't make this target by that date...it wouldn't be hit until the latter part of March, if it continued to cling to the mid-channel level.
We'll see if serious buyers enter any time soon to move this index at a quicker pace than it has seen of late, in anticipation of some kind of resolution of the "Fiscal Cliff" issue by March.