WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Remembrance Day

Remembrance Day

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Nov. 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Nov. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Dec. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
* Wed. Jan. 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Saturday, March 31, 2018

North Korea's REAL Plan For Unification?...Keep an Eye on China's Shanghai Index

I wonder if North Korea and China's real plan for unification will, ultimately, see NOKO become another Province in China (while retaining its nuclear program) as an alternative to its alleged wish for a denuclearized unified Korean peninsula, with Kim Jong Un at its helm?

Just a thought.

And, instead of telling me that such a scenario would never happen, how about describing how it could?

ZeroHedge.com

Meanwhile, China's Shanghai Index remains locked in between major resistance at 3600 and major support at 3000, as shown on the monthly chart below.

The momentum indicator has been in a downtrend since it last peaked in November 2016, diverging with its volatile and tight price-range rally, and is currently above the zero level. A drop and hold below zero could see price retest 3000, or lower to around 2650-2700. A drop and hold below 2650 could see a swift price plunge to, at least, 2000.


Friday, March 30, 2018

U.S. Major Indices Fail to Hold Onto Gains in 2018 Q1

Each candle on the following charts of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices represents a period of one quarter of one year.

Buyers tested the waters above the highs of 2017, but were not able to hold those gains as they received little to no support to advance any further, and even gave up most of them, by the close of Q1 of 2018, with the exception of the NDX (which held above last year's close).


The following 1-year daily and 2-month charts of the SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, 5 FAANGs, FNGU & FNGD show their price relative to their 50-day MA (red), as well as the Rate-of-change technical indicator.

For the most part, the FAANGs have been the powerhouse of the Technology group and have kept the NDX in positive territory for the year, so far. However, those have been weakening considerably, especially FB and GOOG.

I first wrote about FNGU and FNGD here (two recent 3x leveraged ETNs comprised of the FAANGs + BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA & TWTR). Although they have yet to make a new all-time low (in the case of FNGU) or high (FNGD), their respective Rate-of-change indicators have...suggesting that we'll see further volatility, wild price swings and weakness ahead for some or all of these stocks.

Further recent comments regarding FB, AMZNNFLXTSLA and TWTR can be read at this link to my recent articles on all of them.



The following three daily charts of the SPX:VIX, NDX:VXN and RUT:RVX ratios show that all of them are still trading beneath their respective major resistance levels (200, 350 and 80), and are still trading under the bearish influences of their respective moving average Death Cross formations, as well as "SELL" signals on their RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators.

We'll continue to see some wild swings made in the coming weeks and volatility will remain elevated until:
  • all three ratios, not only climb back above, but also hold above these resistance levels,
  • all three technical indicators reverse and form new "BUY" signals, and
  • the bearish Death Cross is reversed to a bullish Golden Cross.

In summary, volatility is still very much alive. Watch the Technology sector and these three ratios as leading indicators as to whether or not, and to what extent, they may influence the overall equity market sentiment and direction for Q2.

As well, are equities headed for a bear market, as I mentioned here? Time will tell. In the meantime, check out the counter-indicators to such a scenario that I mentioned in that post for further clues.




Thursday, March 29, 2018

Tesla's Worst Month May Not Be Its Last

March was Tesla's (TSLA) worst-performing month since its IPO in June 2010, as shown on the following monthly chart. It may not be its last.

The March candle closed just above a medium-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level and below a long-term -50% Andrew's Pitchfork channel line.

We may see price decline further to the bottom of the pitchfork where it converges with the 60% Fib level at 236.00. Inasmuch as the momentum indicator has made an all-time swing low and is diverging with the overall price uptrend, it is hinting that further weakness lies ahead. Alternatively, major resistance sits at 300.00 (confluence of 20-month VWMA and 40% Fib level).

A break and hold below 236.00 would not bode well for this stock.

I think that "Ground Control" is signalling that it's time for Elon Musk to return from outer space and plant his feet convincingly on terra firma, once again, to deal with this loss of confidence by shareholders (translation: mess), which has been building for over a year. He will ignore the "gravity" of the situation to the peril of TSLA.


Is this what's in the cards for TSLA? Just a thought. Time will tell...


S&P 500 Index: Support/Resistance Levels

Near-term resistance on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) sits at 2632.91 and support at 2585.68...formed by a one-day moving average (mid-point of candle high/low -- input source is hl2) of the February 8 & 9 candles, as shown on the daily chart below.


Longer-term +50% Andrew's Pitchfork channel support converges at this month's low of 2585.38, as shown on the monthly chart below.

So, short and long-term moving average and pitchfork channel support converges at 2585.

Look out below if price drops and holds below that level! And, a retest of the pitchfork median (broken pink line), currently around 2460, is long overdue.


Fibonacci Confluence Levels on Netflix

As I mentioned in yesterday's post of the FAANGs, volatility is on the rise for all of them, including Netflix (NFLX).

The weekly chart below shows the confluence levels of two sets of Fibonacci retracements...around 273, 235, 210 and 174. These levels also intersect with the lines parallel to the median of the Andrew's Pitchfork channel, and the median, itself.

A drop and hold below the first at 273, combined with an accelerating decline of the momentum indicator, may see a retest of 235, or lower.

Other factors to consider for NFLX and the rest of the FAANGs are outlined in my above-referenced post.


We'll see if the latest addition to their Board of Directors is an asset or a liability to their stock price over the weeks ahead.

ZeroHedge.com

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Further Volatility Ahead for FAANGs

Amazon plunged today after media rumours surfaced about President Trump's intentions towards its taxation, as shown on the following daily chart of AMZN.

A hold below near-term resistance of a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1441.74 could see a retest of 1400.25 (60% Fib retracement), or lower. The dramatic plunge on the momentum indicator signals further volatility and wild price swings ahead for this stock.


The following daily charts of the FAANGs shows that, during the past one-year period, FB has dropped the most, followed by GOOGL (further details on FB and their data-mining activities/woes can be found here). 

All five stocks have experienced huge price swings and are currently well off their highs on accelerating (to the downside) rate-of-change (ROC). The ROC decline to a new one-year low on AMZN is notable after today's price plunge. If GOOGL and AAPL's ROC indicator make a new swing low on further price decline, all five stocks may drop further. NFLX's ROC has already made a new swing low.

Either way, all of these stocks are in for further wild price swings.


Bloomberg.com

FoxBusiness.com

CNBC.com

Investing.com Weekly Comic (March 29)

President's Tweet March 29

Media Leaders and Laggards

You can see, at a glance (monthly charts below of FOXA, CMCSA and TWX), which media giants are leading or lagging each other overall...they are all at or below their respective major resistance levels.

The only one whose momentum indicator is above zero on this long-term timeframe is FOXA...if it plunges and falls below zero, no doubt the others will weaken further.

On the flip side, if FOXA breaks and holds above its prior swing high of 39.27, the others may gather strength, as well.

Parent company of FOX TV

Parent company of MSNBC TV

Parent company of CNN TV

Not Much Green Left...Bear Market Approaching?

Watch for the S&P Consumer Staples, Real Estate & Utilities Sectors and the Dow Utilities Index to join the others and turn red (in the 5-Day MA column)...as a potential warning of a bear market in the making.

What we'd need to watch for as counter-indicators to such a scenario is described here, here, here, here and here.

Source: Barchart.com (as of Tuesday's close)

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

President Trump: "Woulda-Coulda-Shoulda" Legacy?

Woulda-Coulda-Shoulda...that's what President Trump's legacy will be when he leaves office IF he fails to, not only fulfill his duties to "serve and protect" the citizens of America, first and foremost, but also to be perceived to have so done.

CNBC's survey (conducted March 17-20) reports the following...

CNBC.com

Notwithstanding the many accomplishments that President Trump and the Republican party have made over the past 14 months, I'd say that this is not good news as the mid-terms elections approach in November, inasmuch as they don't seem to be reflected in these poll results.

Perception plays a big factor in influencing human behaviour, maybe more so than facts, at times. It appears that the American public has not placed as much emphasis on those accomplishments as the Trump administration and GOP have...translation: resting on their laurels (and simply tweeting about it) has been of no benefit...nor is that about to change without a precise, prescriptive "fix."

From my perspective, I'd say that President Trump, along with his Republican party, will need to place a higher priority on, and take immediate steps to, firstly, accurately identify the reasons for such lack of support and favourability (diagnose the ailment), secondly, prepare the appropriate strategy (medicine) for it, and, finally, swallow that pill and take the appropriate actions needed to regain the public's trust, first and foremost.

My own perception tells me that the President's strategy, when it has come to his words and tweets about President Putin, are not reflective of his duty to "serve and protect" the American people...rather, they give the impression that he is more concerned with Mr. Putin's view of him than the people he serves. If this is correct, then the "fix" is in his hands ...he cannot afford to be, nor perceived to be, actively "stupid in a friendship with President Putin" and remain in office, nor does he deserve to be. Americans
are astute and will not stand for that.

P.S. From the volatility and massive price swings that have plagued the U.S. equity market since the early part of this year, I'd say that markets had already priced in any positive economic benefits from those Republican/Trump accomplishments. As noted on the following weekly chart of the SPX, the scale of the average trading range (in histogram format and based on an input value of 1) has reached the weekly ranges that were last made during the 2008/09 financial crisis.

If this kind of volatility persists going into the midterm election, this will not bode well for Republicans and President Trump. In my Market Forecast for 2018 post I projected that we'd see an increase in volatility and political uncertainty for 2018. Since then, I've written several posts about a variety of "volatility gauges" that can be monitored over the coming weeks/months for clues on equity weakness/strength here, here, here and here.

Market volatility may be one indicator as to the favourability of whether or not Republicans will retain a majority in the House and Senate, and, ultimately, the White House...no doubt, there are many others...it's up to them to figure that out.





* UPDATE April 17...

President Trump, by continuing to contradict already-released statements by your State Department (this one is the latest example), you emphasize your inability to formulate and carry out a cohesive strategy, without constantly flip-flopping and undermining your representatives...not a good look for a President, or for the U.S. when it comes to foreign affairs.


* UPDATE May 4...

Another one of President Trump's team thrown under the bus...



"He'll get his facts straight." 

REALLY? 

A fact is definable, indisputable and remains unchanged...and, presumably Rudy's "facts" came from you, Mr. President, the source.

And, why you've got your lawyer speaking publicly about this (as well as yourself) is unseemly and foolish...as your backtracking today already proves. If you've hired lawyers to do their job, let them do so and concentrate on your own, which is to serve the American people, not yourself.

By the way, do your Press Secretary (as well as all the White House staff) a favour and insist that she (and they) refer ALL questions from reporters regarding any legal matters to your legal team and refrain from answering ANY of them. Sarah's being mercilessly dragged through the mud by the media for trying to do her job with the information she has at any given time...she doesn't need to be unnecessarily burdened with legal issues not in her purview. And it only adds to the media's never-ending narrative of chaos at the White House. Perhaps the issuance of a formal White House press release to emphasize that matter is in order.

Finally, loyalty and respect is a two-way street...your team can only support and properly represent you if you keep them in the loop. Keep them in the dark as you flip-flop on issues and you'll find yourself out of a job pretty quickly, at worst...or devoid of any staff, at best.







* UPDATE May 22...

We'll see if Republicans can build on this shift in momentum in their favour over the Democrats through to the mid-term election. How will President Trump contribute to this momentum, not only to November 2018, but through to the general election in 2020, and beyond? We'll see...

Source: NationalReview.com

Twitter Caught in "Fibs"

Twitter (TWTR) is stuck in between two long-term Fibonacci retracement levels (after nearly tagging and retreating from the 40% Fib) and a downtrending channel, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Momentum had been building since mid-2017, but was capped in mid-February.

It is 29% lower than it was at the close of its first week of its IPO (November 7, 2013), and it has spent more time under water since then, as shown on the weekly chart below.

A drop and hold below 28.00 could see a further decline to 20.00, or lower. Alternatively, a break and hold above 40.00 would be needed to confirm a sustainable price rally.



Monday, March 26, 2018

Russian Index Breakout Failure

I last wrote about the Russian Index in my post of September 8, 2017.

Since then, it has broken above one downtrend line, popped above its major resistance level of 1200, spiked briefly above its next major downtrend line, only to fall back below, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Momentum is rising tepidly and is above the zero level.

If this index can remain above 1200, while maintaining momentum above zero, we may see a second (possibly successful) trend line breakout attempt. However, I'd like to see a higher swing high made above the December 2016 swing high on momentum to confirm any sustainable rally. Otherwise, a drop and hold below 1200 will likely see a retest of 1080, or lower.



Sunday, March 25, 2018

MSCI World Index at Critical Support Level

I last wrote about the MSCI World Index in my post of February 10 as one of the volatility gauges to monitor for clues in equity direction. At that time, its price was 2050.90 and I mentioned that 2032.74 was a critical major support level to watch.

Since then, it has dropped further and closed just above that level on Friday, as shown on the following weekly chart.

I'd reiterate that a drop and hold below that level could send all world markets into a tailspin. The dramatic and swift plunge of the momentum indicator (which began in late January) is hinting of further weakness ahead on this timeframe, unless we see a swifter and convincing (sustainable) bounce soon. In the meantime, look for wild swings in this index, particularly this coming week, and beyond.


Also, as a follow-up to my post of March 10, I'd just include an update on the following three equity volatility daily ratio charts (SPX:VIX, NDX:VXN, and RUT/RVX).

Once again, all three ratios have fallen below their critical support levels of 200, 350, and 80, respectively, are back below both their 50 and 200-day moving averages, and are still trading under the bearish influence of a moving average Death Cross formation. Furthermore, a new "SELL" signal has formed on the RSI, MACD, and PMO indicators...hinting of further weakness ahead.

As is the case of the MSCI World Index, no doubt, we'll also see some wild swings made this coming week and beyond on these ratios. Volatility will remain elevated until:

  • all three ratios, not only climb back above, but also hold above, what is once again, their major resistance levels,
  • all three technical indicators reverse and new "BUY" signals are formed, and
  • the bearish Death Cross is reversed to a bullish Golden Cross.





Finally, most of the Major U.S. Indices and Major Sectors are under water in terms of their losses made, year-to-date, as shown on the following graphs.



The large-scale selloff hit all of the Major Indices and Major Sectors this past week, as shown on the following one week graphs.

Watch for any meaningful rotation into any of these in the coming week(s)...otherwise, I think equities are in for a rough ride.