UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Has AA had its day or is it a harbinger of things to come in the general markets, as I wrote about on April 8th?
As I write this in overnight trading, Gold is now priced at 1197.50.
The GDP estimate for Q1 of 2013, to which I referred in that earlier post, has now been revised. As I mentioned in my post of June 26th, the final number came in at 1.8%...considerably lower than the 3% forecast in April. The trend continues down, as shown on the graph below.
*UPDATE June 28th @ 11:00 am: A low of 1179.40 has been made in overnight trading...whether we see a meaningful bounce from here remains to be seen. Here's a shot of the updated Weekly chart. You can see that price blew right through thin volumes on the Volume Profile along the right side of the chart at 1300.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
You can see it's important for GS to hold above the 150.00 level and, particularly, above the 200 sma (pink)...price is still subject to the negative influences of the bearish "Death Cross" formation on the following Weekly chart and is grappling with negative divergences on the MACD, Stochastics, and RSI indicators. Weakening Financials may pose a problem for the SPX.
*UPDATE June 27th:
GS ran out of steam today into the close, but this GS:SPX ratio has popped back above near-term support of 0.095...momentum is back above zero...a break either above or below this large descending triangle is imminent...momentum will need to confirm any sustained move.
Monday, June 24, 2013
*UPDATE June 25th @ 11:00 am:
The following chart shows a longer view of the Shanghai Index and shows today's closing price. You can see the weakness and downtrend that it's been in since October 2007.
The next 5-day chart shows Tuesday's intraday action...a move below last year's low and recovery to close above.
From both charts, it would appear that 2000 represents a fair value for the Shanghai to achieve and maintain to signal any kind of committed growth and renewed strength.
*UPDATE June 27th @ 12:00 noon: An interesting article on China: Bloomberg
Friday, June 21, 2013
You can see that, with the exception of Japan's Nikkei, the U.S. $, and Lumber, they all declined. What I like about this graph format is the fact that we can see, at a glance, where money flow has been directed this past week in various world markets, and to see the "outliers"...that is, which markets gained or lost the most amount compared to the others...ones to watch going forward to see if they continue leading in strength or weakness and what effect they may have on other instruments (e.g., Greece, Japan, Homebuilders, Metals, the BRIC countries, the U.S. $, and Bonds), as well as the TNX:SPX ratio, as outlined in my post of June 17th.
Inasmuch as next week is full of economic data, is the end of the month, is the end of Q2 for 2013, will see nine FOMC members speak at various venues, and will see Fed POMO activity on all five days, I wouldn't be surprised to see intraday and overnight volatility increase as market participants attempt to interpret, what will likely be, conflicting information, data, and viewpoints, not to mention reaction to further domestic and foreign news at it unfolds. As such, we could see choppy, non-directional trading with large, volatile swings dominating...it should be an "interesting" week.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
None of the 9 Major Sectors in the U.S. outperformed the others, as they all lost between 2.5 and 3.0%...
We'll see if the selling continues or even accelerates, world-wide, over the next day(s). No doubt, traders will be watching various world government bond yields...we may see further clues (related to the SPX) in my updated notation made today in my last post regarding the TNX:SPX ratio.
Monday, June 17, 2013
TNX:SPX 10-Yr Weekly ratio:
TNX 2-Yr Daily:
TNX:SPX 2-Yr Daily ratio:
Resistance and support on TNX Daily @ 23.00 & 21.00
Resistance and support on TNX:SPX Daily ratio @ 0.014 and 0.013
I'll be watching the ratio closely over the next while...looking for either continued strength in TNX vs. SPX, or a retreat of rising rates against any further strength in the SPX.
The Fed may have to increase its bond purchases from $85B/month if it is going to continue to suppress rates on any further meaningful and sustainable advance in equities beyond current levels.
***UPDATE June 20th (10:15 am ET): Prior resistance of 0.014 is now broken on TNX:SPX ratio...next resistance level is 0.015 on rising momentum.
***UPDATE June 21st: Prior resistance of 0.015 is now broken on the TNX:SPX ratio to form near-term support and closed today at 0.016. You can see from this link (and below) that all indicators are at elevated levels now, but have yet to begin to decline...ones to watch for any evidence of slowing momentum in rising yield. The next resistance levels are at 0.018 and 0.020.
Perhaps it really is time for the Fed to take its foot off the gas pedal and allow markets to reflect true economics and the laws of supply and demand, as they're supposed to function, and let appropriate fiscal policies be set accordingly.
Saturday, June 15, 2013
Friday, June 14, 2013
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- SPX:VIX Ratio
6 Major Indices
9 Major Sectors
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
***UPDATE: As of today's close, the 'Evening Star' pattern has now been formed. We'll see if we get bearish follow-through next...if so, equities should follow or vice versa.
Of the 9 Major Sectors, Financials was the biggest loser in today's decline.
Monday, June 10, 2013
My 2 cents' worth on this: Perhaps...unless its Government confiscates its bank depositors' cash...precedent already set in Cyprus.
N.B. ZeroHedge article June 10, 2013 ~ "Greek Stocks Enter Bear Market"
Data Source: http://www.indexq.org/
***UPDATE June 11th @ 10:31 am EDT: The sell-off in Greece continues...
Although the following Daily chart of the Greek (Athens) General Share Index doesn't yet show today's (Tuesday's) candle, you can see that the current price has fallen below the 200 sma...major support sits at 800.
***UPDATE Tuesday, June 11th:
- See today's Bloomberg article entitled "Greece First Developed Market Cut to Emerging as UAE Raised." The article goes on to say that Greece has become the first developed nation to be cut to emerging-market status by MSCI Inc. after the local stock index plunged 83% since 2007.
- See today's NY Times article -- Greek government is closing down its state-run TV and radio broadcaster to cut costs.
Saturday, June 08, 2013
Friday, June 07, 2013
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- SPX:VIX Ratio
- SPLV vs. SPX vs. CRX
- Various World Markets
- Stocks Above 20/50/200-Day Moving Averages
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Volume in the July Cocoa futures contract spiked in today's continued rally from the past few days up to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as shown on the Daily chart below.
At the moment, price is still subject to a bearish influence of a moving average "Death Cross" formation, as well as a confluence of this Fib level with a downtrend line and the upper Bollinger Band. A break and hold above this confluence resistance, followed by a rally with conviction may, ultimately, reverse this formation to a bullish "Golden Cross."
Wednesday, June 05, 2013
A drop below 0.98 on the AUD/CAD forex pair could send it down to the lower channel at 0.959ish or lower to 0.93, as shown on this Weekly chart.
I'll be watching the recent weakness on China's Shanghai Index for a potential drop and hold below both the 50 and 200 MAs, as shown on the Daily chart below.
So, further weakness in EEM, AUD/CAD, and China could pull US equities down further, especially if we see a continued drop in Japan's Nikkei Index, as I wrote about earlier today in this post.
A failure to hold that level, could send it down to 11500ish, or lower.
***UPDATE Thursday, June 6th @ 12:30 pm EDT: Here's an update of the Weekly chart of the NKD as of today's continued drop...low of the day, so far, is now 12310...low of the day, so far, on USD/JPY is now 95.89.
Tuesday, June 04, 2013
The following is one explanation of the widening pertaining to the U.S.: