UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
We'll see what current (and any anticipatory) factors may have been considered that would warrant a rate hike, if one is, in fact, implemented...hopefully, they will be clearly spelled out in Ms. Yellen's 2:30 pm press conference that will follow the Fed's rate announcement on December 14th.
Saturday, November 26, 2016
I've written about the SPX:VIX ratio many times in the past. I've mentioned, as recently as November 13th, that it will be necessary for the bulls to hold price on this ratio above the 150 level in order for SPX equities to continue their rally with little volatility to impede this rise.
This post will take a look at one possible scenario that could see the SPX reaching a price of 2700, or so, by 2019, in anticipation of the next U.S. Presidential election in 2020.
As shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below, price has rallied this month from the "median" of a long-term regression channel (which begins at the lows of 2009), and has broken out to all-time highs (above an almost two-year consolidation/congestion level) since Donald Trump was elected as President on December 8th.
It looks poised to continue this advance in a manner similar to that which occurred after Barack Obama was re-elected as President in November of 2012. If it did continue on that trajectory and at that velocity, we could see price reach the "+2 standard deviation level" on this channel at 2700 by November-December 2018. After such an advance, price could very pull back to around the "-1 standard deviation level" to around 2370, then bounce back to 2700 by the next election in November 2020.
Of course, that hypothetical scenario would depend on a lot of factors -- especially whether President-elect Trump's ambitious economic/tax/fiscal agenda can be supported by Congress and implemented, together with whatever future monetary policy measures may be enacted of the Fed -- to merit such an exuberant advance in equities.
As can be noted on the following Daily, Weekly, and Yearly (each candle represents a period of one year) ratio charts of SPX:VIX, it will be critical that bulls hold price above the 150 level, which is defined as a major support level, not only by price action, but also by the daily and weekly 50 and 200 moving averages.
The RSI, MACD and PMO indicators are hinting of further short-term strength in the SPX on the Daily timeframe, and crossovers are either imminent or have just occurred on the MACD and PMO on the Weekly timeframe, with an RSI holding above 50, also hinting of medium-term strength.
Price action on the Yearly timeframe is, currently, extremely bullish for the SPX (a massive bullish engulfing candle is forming), and, depending on its close at the end of this year, it may forecast whether the hypothetical longer-term scenario that I've described above is realistic and has begun.
|Daily SPX:VIX Ratio|
|Weekly SPX:VIX Ratio|
|Yearly SPX:VIX Ratio|
* UPDATE January 17, 2018...
The S&P 500 Index reached, and closed above, 2700 on January 3, 2018 (nearly 3 years ahead of what I had forecast), as shown on the following Daily chart.
It has since surpassed this 2020 election target by over 100 points, already, pointing to a very aggressive bull market since the November 8, 2016 election (663 points gained since then)!
Obviously, my crystal ball needs an upgrade...👀
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Even though price is trading under the bullish influences of a moving average Golden Cross, all three technical indicators are hinting of further weakness to come.
Watch for a bullish cross-over of the MACD and PMO indicators, as well as a price reversal and bounce, break and hold, firstly, above 1700, then above 1750, as a potential signal of clear support of higher prices for world equities, in the longer term, including that of the SPX.
Conversely, a break and hold below 1600 could very well forecast a large downdraft for all world equities in the near term.
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
In that post, I had mentioned that a rally to (and hold above) 3000 could thwart a major downdraft, as was being threatened by an imminent break of a neckline of a massive Head & Shoulders formation.
A break and hold above 3250 could see price continue to rally to its next resistance level around 3400-3500. This index is trading under the bullish influences of a moving average Golden Cross, so a break and hold above 3250 is critical to continued success of further advance; otherwise, a drop and hold below that level could very well see a major bear attack ensue, sending price to new lows of around 2500, or more.
In my above-mentioned post, I also made the following conclusion (relative to world markets):
"In particular, watch Japan, China, Brazil, the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 Indices for committed leadership..." related to any real success or failure of the S&P 500 Index and equities, in general.
As noted on the following 1-year Daily charts of these indices, they've all risen above major consolidation/congestion levels this year, with the exception of the Nasdaq 100...the one to watch, along with the Shanghai Index, to see whether their movements (either strength or weakness) influence, or have an impact on, the other indices in the days and weeks ahead.
Sunday, November 13, 2016
The Momentum indicator has rallied and is, again, back above the zero level, which now favours the bulls on this longer term timeframe.
As I've said many times over the past several years, a hold above 150 clearly favours equity bulls. Watch for an SPX breakout to new all-time highs in the near term (last new high is 2193.81).
For confirmation of such a move, keep an eye on whether the MACD and PMO indicators (which have both just crossed over to the upside), as well as the RSI indicator, break their respective downtrends, as shown on the following SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart.
No doubt, markets are likely buoyed by more unity in all three U.S. Washington political houses subsequent to the Trump/Republican win last week. While traders will pay attention to the future policies, implementation, and effects of those policies, this ratio should provide a good gauge of market sentiment and momentum conviction, as well as the strength and velocity of volatility.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
- Major U.S. Indices
- 9 Major Sectors + Homebuilders
- Major European Indices
- Emerging Market & BRIC ETFs + BRIC Indices
- Canada, Japan, UK, Australia + World Market Index
- Commodities + US $ + US Bonds
- Major Currencies
- SPX vs World Market Index
- Financial ETFs vs U.S., European & Chinese Major Indices
- Retail ETF vs SPX
Friday, November 11, 2016
Seriously, who has time to check out all available sources of news these days? And, where do you start? Who do you trust for fair and accurate information?
Middle-class working folks are too busy trying to earn a living and create a healthy and balanced life for their families to worry about who is saying what and try to figure out who's relaying true facts.
Reality tells me that the only ones who wade through endless scores of tabloid stories are those who work in the media industry.
Like the Baby Boomers who are busy downsizing and simplifying their lives to determine what really matters, it's time the media did the same.
As a boomer myself, I've learned that, with age, comes a realization that focusing on what's truly important to me, in the short term (today) and longer term (the big picture), and trusting my own instincts, helps me ensure that decisions I make are in alignment with my intentions and values and how well I'm actually honouring those values. And, to help me downsize (physically, emotionally, socially and psychologically), it's been very important to accept, appreciate, learn from, and let go of the past, and then move forward with faith in my abilities to handle what's in front of me...that's where my energies are optimally and most valuably utilized.
By the way, this approach can be very helpful in trading the markets, as well...successfully and confidently moving from one completed trade to the next new one.
Admittedly, there are, however, some bubbles that are rather enjoyable...
* UPDATE July 29, 2019...
And, it hasn't changed since the recent finalization of the Special Counsel investigation into Russian meddling and purported Trump-Russia collusion, which showed the absence of any crime by Trump or anyone associated with his campaign. In fact, the media has stepped up their attacks on the President and have increased their use of those two words since then, and you'd think he had committed a crime(s).
Aren't Americans getting tired of such inflammatory, patently biased and divisive rhetoric? When will the media (journalists) return to simply reporting facts and actual news, without delivering it with a politically-biased slant or interjecting their own views and demands? They sound more like lobbyists and activists instead of self-proclaimed journalists.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
|Donald Trump is elected 45th President of the United States of America|
November 8, 2016
I wish you much success in crafting and enacting win-win solutions for both domestic and foreign issues and affairs, which will enable the unification of ideas and people around the world.
May peace be with you and with everyone.
Thursday, November 03, 2016
The next major resistance level is around 1400. I'd watch to see if the PMO indicator crosses and holds back above zero to see whether such a rally, or continued rally beyond that level, has legs.
In fact, there is thin volume above 1400, as depicted by the pink Volume Profile along the right-hand side of the Weekly chart below, so you could see a price surge above 1400 to, potentially, 1500, which is the next major resistance level. Watch for a Golden Cross of the 50 MA back above the 200 MA on this timeframe to confirm such a surge.
|GOLD Daily chart|
|GOLD Weekly chart|
The following Year-to-date comparison chart of percentage gains/losses shows that the RUT has lost the most recently (because of its prior double-top spike to 11%), but that all four Major Indices are roughly even in percentage gains now for the year...we'll see if that was just a dead cat bounce and whether the SPX:VIX ratio does plunge below the 100 level, as I mentioned here.
Wednesday, November 02, 2016
A drop and hold below 100 will indicate that bears are taking firm control and threaten to take the market down, while a rebound and break and hold back above 150 will indicate that bulls are committing fresh monies into equities. The Momentum indicator has dropped below zero again on the monthly timeframe, indicating that bears are currently in control of the SPX.
|MONTHLY CHART SPX:VIX RATIO|