WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Spring

Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

USD/CAD Forex Pair Overdue for a Bounce

The USD/CAD Forex pair is well overdue for a bounce at the median of a long-term regression channel and the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

The Canadian dollar is price-sensitive to the price of WTIC Oil, so I'd keep a close eye on its action following the inaction of the participating countries to lower oil supply at this weekend's Doha meeting...Oil is -2.21 at 39.50 as I write this post on Sunday evening.


P.S. I'd also keep a close watch on the banks and DB.

Saturday, April 09, 2016

On Vacation

I'll be on vacation as of this date, so I won't be posting much until late June (although I may slip the odd one in if time and circumstances permit).

In the meantime, I wish you all good luck in the markets!




Thursday, April 07, 2016

Financials ETF Looks Weak

In my post of December 29, 2015, I stressed the importance of the Financials ETF (XLF) in, potentially, propelling the SPX to an increase of 5-6% for 2016.

You can see from the Daily ratio chart below of XLF:SPX, that price weakened considerably afterwards and fell to new lows not seen since 2012. Price is attempting to stabilize above that low, but all three indicators are still in downtrend and display new "SELL" signals, and price action is still under the bearish influence of the Death Cross formation of the moving averages.

If price drops and holds below near-term support of 0.0105, we could see a significant drop in the SPX, likely to new lows for the year, as I mentioned on April 3.


Sunday, April 03, 2016

SPX:VIX Ratio Reaches a Critical Crossroads

Further to my posts of January 29 and February 17 (& March 3 update), price action on the SPX:VIX ratio has rallied and is now in between major support of 150 and major resistance at 160, as shown on the following monthly chart. The momentum indicator has also risen above the zero level and is hinting of higher prices to come at some point on this longer term timeframe.


Equity bulls will need to keep the price on this ratio above the 150 level, as well as break and hold above 160, and keep momentum above zero, in order to convince traders/investors to continue their buying spree to send the SPX to new all-time highs (currently at 2134.72, as shown on the following monthly chart of the SPX).

Otherwise, a drop and hold below these levels will see volatility return to the equity markets -- likely in a substantial manner -- to send them to, potentially, new lows for the year. It should be noted that the momentum indicator on this chart is not yet above zero and is still in a downtrend, so it is not yet confirming that higher prices are in store for the SPX...so, keep a close eye on the SPX:VIX ratio for signals.