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*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, May 09, 2022

How Long Can President Biden Survive In 'Survival Mode?'

N.B. This will be a very long and depressing post by the time President Biden's first (and likely only) term is up in January 2025...a refection of his character and policies and the damning effects they are having on Americans, the economy, the environment, the country's national security, as well as the rest of the world's economies and global social stability.

Part I

* See UPDATES below...

Add this disturbing development involving the Supreme Court to the long list of President Biden's failures -- and national security threats that have formed since he took office -- and you've got a very big problem brewing in the U.S. that is contributing to a high level of uncertainty and a general malaise over future prosperity prospects for its citizens and domestic and foreign investors.

So, how long can Joe Biden survive in 'survival mode?' He may barely survive until his four-year term ends, but it's doubtful that many Democrat members of the House and Senate will when their term expires this November, inasmuch as they've enacted his policies (and have pulled him to the extreme far left on many issues) and are directly accountable to their constituents who are negatively impacted by the fallout of Biden's agenda, especially by out-of-control inflation and a high crime wave in their cities.

Look for a 'red wave' to occur during the 2022 mid-term elections, as a result of President Biden's 'lack of courage' to govern the way he promised in his speech when he was sworn into office on January 20, 2021...as a self-professed centrist and a uniter. No one believes his proclamations anymore...but, I doubt many did in the first place.

Market players have already voted with their money...and, it's not favourable for Joe Biden, his agenda, or the Democrat party...see my post of February 21 for further details on major support levels for the SPX pertaining to its break of its Head and Shoulders neckline at 4200.

The SPX closed at 3851.85 the day of President Biden's inauguration. Most of the gains it made since then have been wiped out this year.

It looks like Biden's promises and agenda (together with his 89 executive orders, 69 presidential memoranda, 254 proclamations,  and 47 notices issued, to date...source: Ballotpedia) were hollow, destructive and without merit. Markets have no confidence in his abilities to fix his administration's problems plaguing the country. 

And, from his recent rhetoric, it appears that he intends to double down on his disastrous policies, instead of dramatically changing course.

Brace yourselves, America! I think that the worst is yet to come! ๐Ÿ˜•

SPX May 9/22 Close

By the way, market wealth destruction began with technology stocks after they peaked in early November 2021, as shown on the following weekly comparison chart of the FNGU ETN basket of tech stocks with the SPX.

The widening spread between these two was precipitated by a surge in inflation, as outlined in the following WSJ article.

Continued weakness in tech stocks, along with higher inflation numbers and further monetary tightening measures by the US Fed, will, no doubt, negatively impact the SPX in the weeks/months ahead.

Look for high volatility to continue to whiplash markets in both directions, as I described in my last post.

* UPDATE May 11...

YoY CPI data released today shows that, even though inflation moderated slightly over the past month, it's still sky high at 8.3% compared to where it was during the height of the 2008/09 financial crisis and market crash (and still at 40-year highs), as shown in the graph below.

Furthermore, inasmuch as explosive housing inflation has not yet been fully baked into these numbers, expect CPI prints to increase incrementally over the next months, possibly into 2023.

Therefore, I'll stick with my assessment that whipsaw volatility will remain with markets until then, and longer, unless President Biden dramatically reverses course on his economically and socially destructive, restrictive and punative socialist policies and agenda.


A breakdown of today's CPI data is provided in the following ZeroHedge article.

By the the way, with the VIX not yet at extreme levels, it's not indicating that the SPX has reached capitulation level yet.

Likewise with the VXN and the NDX.

* UPDATE May 12...

If this were former President Trump, he'd have been impeached by both the House and Senate months ago for reckless, destructive, and nonsensical actions taken since his first day in office, such as these latest ones proclaimed by President Biden.

When will the grownups step up to intervene in such irresponsible behaviour that threatens America's national security?

The U.S. is being turned into a Third World country where even Mothers can't feed their babies because there has been a critical shortage of baby formula since February, with no end in sight!

* UPDATE May 19...

No capitulation yet in equity markets (SPY monthly)...

More turbulence ahead...

Americans are not happy with Joe Biden...

* UPDATE May 20...

Biden's 'success' is a mess...

Democrats and Joe Biden's formidable foe...former President Donald Trump...

* UPDATE May 23...

President Biden and Democrats (including Democrat city Mayors and state Governors) have no clue on how to handle rampant and escalating crime...so why do people keep electing them???


ZeroHedge excerpt

More self-inflicted chaos and controversy...another major faux pas uttered publicly by President Biden has his staff cleaning up his remarks, yet again...remarks that could, potentially, spark a military conflict between China and the U.S

The question is, did he literally mean what he said? If so, his staff is lying and he did not "mispeak." If not, he lied. 

No one knows the truth between what he says in his public statements and declarations, and what his staff, subsequently,  walks back via press releases. There have been numerous instances since he was inaugurated...far too many. 

At what point do they become a 
national security issue?

Donald Trump would have been impeached by now for all of Joe Biden's reckless blunders, if he were President.

* UPDATE May 29...

It seems that incompetency and destructive policies and actions in the Biden administration are not limited to the President...

* UPDATE June 3...

Joe Biden exhibited more bizarre behaviour and made an even bigger fool of himself when he repeated his tired old lies and added even more nonsensical ones today...he hasn't got a clue...

* UPDATE June 8...

Joe Biden's Democrats are giving Americans the middle finger with their drastic Green New Deal energy policies and their "let them eat cake" nonsensical proclamations.

AND
Just where do they plan on 
disposing the giant batteries 
used in electric vehicles, as well as 
non-degradable windmill blades, 
solar panels, and hazardous materials that aren't recyclable
once they've "died" and what kind of environmental damage 
will result in that process?



P.S. A Michigan county sheriff reported on June 10 that they will no longer respond to some 911 calls because they've already blown through their gas budget for their vehicles for the entire year! Michigan Democrat Senator Stabenow should loan them her electric car...or better yet quit her bragging and gloating and do something about this national security crisis, which her party created! ๐Ÿ˜• By the way, nobody likes a braggard.

* UPDATE June 10...

YoY CPI released today shows that inflation is still HOT HOT HOT at 8.6% and surging at the fastest pace in 40 years -- with no end in sight -- thanks to Biden's reckless energy policies and the Fed's dereliction in not raising rates last year, or even sooner...


Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.2% and Consumer Expectations fell to 46.8%, as shown below...numbers not seen since the 2008/09 financial crisis.





Economic and market conditions aren't just a hot mess in the U.S. They're also being experienced world-wide. 

Meanwhile, President Biden continues to blame everyone but himself...but, will the Fed take the fall for him? 

The following report describes the reality of it all...the not-so-good, the bad and the ugly...

A recession is on the horizon in 2023 and the bear market has a ways to run yet, according to this report...

US equity markets did not react well to this news today, and, as of 1:50 pm ET, the Balance of Power is still under the control of the bears on the SPX on the monthly timeframe...it closed down near today's low at 3900.86.

* UPDATE June 12...

It looks like Joe Biden has lost support from his own party...now and into 2024...and will be a "lame duck" President after the November mid-term elections if Republicans take back the House, and maybe the Senate, as well...


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

By the way, Mr. President, Vladimir Putin is NOT to blame for U.S. inflation, as you keep insisting, inasmuch as it began to rise right after you came into office and immediately began axing former President Trump's successful economic policies, as shown below.

*********

U.S. Inflation Rate Timeline (source: Fox News):

  • January 2021 - 1.4% (inherited from Trump)
  • March 2021 - 2.6%
  • July 2021 - 5.4%
  • November 2021 - 6.8%
  • March 2022 - 7.9%
  • April 2022 - 8.3%
  • May 2022 - 8.6%
*********

* UPDATE June 13...

N.B. Congratulations, President Biden...your destructive policies, combined with the Fed's, have succeeded in WIPING OUT MORE THAN ALL THE GAINS MADE IN THE SPX since you took office on January 20, 2021! It closed at 3851.85 that day...and made a high of 4818.62 on January 4, 2022 before it began its drop, as shown on the daily chart below.

If the RSI stays below 50, and if the bearish crossovers hold on the MACD and PMO on the following daily SPX:VIX ratio chart, look for the SPX to drop further.

* UPDATE June 14...

PPI numbers released today shows that they're still elevated at record highs...how serious are the Fed and Joe Biden in really fixing inflation?

Brace yourselves...and prepare...

* UPDATE June 16...

More hypocrisy regarding the Biden family...why hasn't Joe's Attorney General charged his son with a crime, especially since Joe's so dead-set against guns in the hands of the mentally unstable and drug-addicted who lie on gun application forms?

* UPDATE June 21...

More political insanity on display...a must-watch video to finally get to the truth on their so-called 'green energy' program...

* UPDATE June 22...

Look who's back under the bus this week...๐Ÿ‘€

And Biden's own party leaders have referred to a short-term quick-fix proposal to lower the price of gasoline, such as is now being floated by him, as "showbiz" and a "gimmick."

With contradictory statements emanating from the White House Press Secretary, it's no wonder Americans are confused by Biden's administration and their policies...

ZeroHedge photo montage

With a possible/likely recession looming, it's highly doubtful that the Democrats will still have a majority in the House and Senate after the November mid-term elections...leaving President Biden unable to carry out the remainder of his inflationary far-left socialist agenda

So, it looks like markets are increasingly vulnerable to more downdrafts over the coming weeks and months, before prices begin to stabilize once inflation has abated.

* UPDATE June 23...

It looks like Joe Biden has become a 'hot potato' that none of the Dems want to carry into 2024...while VP Kamala Harris has also become a liability...

* UPDATE June 24...

OMG...isn't his wife embarrassed? ๐Ÿ˜•

* UPDATE June 26...

It's shocking to see, day after day, how vacuous, foolish and inept the Biden administration is regarding energy, in particular. 

It's clear that they have no plan to dig America out of the mess they created, because they lack reasoning and foresight skills, as well as plain old common sense...valuable and necessary traits to possess in order to run a country properly.

For the time being, they are ruining the country. 

How much longer can Americans afford them?


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE June 27...

More bad economic news for the U.S. and, ultimately, President Biden's chances of re-election in 2024 (or any Democrat)...

And, you know things are bad when the Fed criticizes the President...

* UPDATE June 29...

No doubt, plunging optimism among U.S. business leaders will be reflected in continued higher and higher prices for goods and services...devastating news for consumers and the Biden administration...

Uh oh...brace yourselves...

* UPDATE June 30...

The U.S. is on the verge of a technical recession...as consumer purchasing is wavering...

* UPDATE July 7...

More scandalous news about President Biden's actions regarding the energy sector has just surfaced. When will he be held accountable for his "sheer incompetence and/or corruption?"

Even Democrats are having "buyer's remorse" as their support for Biden is plummeting...


Surely Americans deserve transparency about this...for national security reasons...

So, when will he be indicted, if ever?...


* UPDATE July 8...

Wow...isn't anyone at the DOJ investigating the Biden family?...

And so, it gets worse as each day goes by...who's actually in charge at the White House? Everyone knows it's NOT Joe Biden...

* UPDATE July 11...

Even Jill Biden is not immune to stupid and insensitive remarks...

* UPDATE July 12...

And, still Joe Biden refuses to change his U.S. energy-crippling policies...




So, there you have it...Democrats just don't care...

* UPDATE July 13...

U.S. CPI came in hotter than expected at 9.1% YoY


Zerohedge image

Meanwhile, the President has trotted off to the Middle East today to beg them to produce more oil, while turning off the spigot in America

His and his liberal idealogues' absurd and punitive "Green new Deal" and "Liberal World Order" policies have produced devastating global consequences and wrecked world economies.

* UPDATE July 14...

U.S. PPI data released today was also hotter than analysts expected at 11.3% YoY...inflation is still rising...

And this...more headaches for Joe Biden...hopefully Americans will get answers in the next 30 days, or so, on this collusion lawsuit against the Biden administration...

* UPDATE July 18...

More political shenanigans are surfacing between Joe Biden and his son...

* UPDATE July 19...

The truth about economic growth is being exposed at a bad time for Joe Biden...leading up to mid-term elections...

* UPDATE July 20...

Biden should have stayed home...reversed his harmful and unsustainable energy policies...and, instead, green-lit increased oil and gas production, pipelines and refining in his own country, while researching sustainable energy development...something anyone with common sense would do! ๐Ÿ˜•


ZeroHedge excerpt

Is this any wonder!

More headaches for Joe (involving the "smartest man he knows")...we'll see what happens...


* UPDATE July 23...

The following assessment of Joe Biden's political acumen during his 50 years in office hit the nail on the head...

"Joe's a party follower, not a leader...

he always was and still is."

NOT what you want in a President! ๐Ÿ˜•

So, who's really in charge at the White House??? ๐Ÿค”

* UPDATE July 25...

How do you redefine 'stupid'...๐Ÿ˜•


ZeroHedge excerpt


Contrast the foregoing White House gobbledegook proclamations with what Fed officials are reporting and you get an actual dose of reality.

So, if you hitch your wagon to Biden's horse, be prepared for shocking consequences! ๐Ÿ˜ฏ


So, keep your powder dry, for now...

It's reported that the Hunter Biden investigation is at a "critical stage." 

The big question is, will he be indicted and when?

The FBI is under investigation by the Senate for alleged misconduct of their handling of information about Hunter Biden prior to the 2020 election

Joe Biden wasn't even President yet, but it appears that the FBI was protecting his interests instead of doing their job.

* UPDATE July 26...

It sounds like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's "no recession" call was based on lagging data, not leading indicators...


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE JULY 28...

More information is coming to light about Hunter Biden's overseas business dealings involving "The Big Guy"...at what stage, really, is the alleged DOJ investigation of Hunter?

Perhaps many of Hunter's overseas dealings explain why Joe's policies are soft on China...


Any other shockers waiting in the wings? ๐Ÿ˜•

~~~~~~~~~

N.B. Due to the length of this post, you can read subsequent UPDATES at this link ("Part II: Joe Biden's Presidential Survival").