SPX Teeters On The Edge Of A Bear Market

The SPX gained 801.35 points from its November 8, 2016 close of 2139.56 (on the eve of the U.S. elections) to its all-time high of 2940.91 on September 21, 2018.

Since September 21, the SPX closed Monday (Christmas Eve) 589.81 points lower at 2351.10...a loss of 73.6% of those Nov/16 to Sept/18 points gained...and is now up by only 9.89% since November 8, 2016, as shown on the following percentage-gained graph.

The SPX is teetering on the edge of a bear market, as it is now -19.78% from its September high this year.

If we get a couple more days like Monday's, the SPX could easily reach its first support level of 2250 before the end of the year, as shown on the following monthly chart, and as I described in my post of December 22. Major support sits lower at 2000.

U.S. equity market gains made since Nov/16 are already being cannibalized by Washington gridlock and erratic Trump administration decisions and policies, as I warned in last month's post of November 9. Whether that is about to abate anytime soon is anyone's guess!

Brief Government Shutdown Ends as 2-Year Budget Deal Reached

In the early hours of Friday, Congress passed a 2-year budget that boosts spending by $300 Billion and suspends the debt ceiling for a year, which President Trump has signed. So, after a short government shutdown at midnight on Thursday, the government has re-opened for business.

As of 12:55 pm ET, this news hasn't had a positive impact on equities, as Major Indices are down again, so far, today, as shown on the 2-month daily charts below.

And, the heat map below shows overnight percentage losses in other world markets, as well as current losses in North and South America.

Source: CNBC.com

* UPDATE @ 2:20 pm ET...

The SPX nearly tagged its near-term major support level of 2500 today (as I described here). However, the following daily comparison chart shows that 10-YR rates have held near their recent highs, during the recent correction of the SPX.

Whether rates continue to hold or push higher on any recovery in equities, and whether they will materially impact the extent of such recovery, remains to be seen. I should be able to provide further commentary about that by Monday.

US Government Shutdown Looms on February 9th as World Market "SELL" Signal is Triggered

* See UPDATES below...

Another U.S. government shutdown looms this week on February 9th.

Will it...won't it? That's the $64,000 question as more volatility is in store for markets.

Given the fact that there are great political divides over a variety of policies, increased volatility in the markets, and, now, the information that's being revealed that may determine whether or not civil and/or constitutional rights were violated in the months leading up to and after the 2016 presidential election (and any political and/or legal fallout that may occur), will only add to the increased odds of chaos ahead, making future events less predictable.

Layer on top of that, the unlikely chances of any additional fiscal stimulus economic benefits that would be generated by programs such as infrastucture spending, over and above that which will trickle out into the economy from last year's Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, to offset a resulting increase in inflation and interest rates.

Furthermore, if we see a collapse in the US $, these odds will increase dramatically, so keep an eye on it, as I've mentioned recently here.

As well, further world market weakness, that we've seen of late, is noted on the daily chart of the World Market Index below (as of Friday's close). A new "SELL" signal has also been generated by the RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators. Major support sits at 2000.

The following heat map shows how world markets are trading as of 12:20 pm ET today (Monday).

There's no doubt that a lot more uncertainty lies ahead...so, buckle up!

* UPDATE February 5  @ close...

Congress Stages an OPEN/CLOSED "Revolution"

It's a good thing that OPEN/CLOSED signs are double-sided and can be easily flipped.

After a 3-day government shutdown, the Senate and House passed a temporary 3-week Continuing Resolution to continue funding the government through February 8th...it's now on its way to President Trump to sign (N.B. signed later today).

So, the OPEN sign is displayed, once again, but like a revolving door, the CLOSED sign will magically re-appear if the 2018 Budget is not passed by February 9th.

Caution...more political theatrics to come! 👀




Here's how the Major Indices closed today (shaking off the political sparks)...all at record-breaking all-time NEW highs and closing highs.

U.S. Government Shutdown Looms...$7.8 Trillion at Stake

* See UPDATES below...

As Democrats threaten to shut down the government at midnight tonight (Friday) without passing the 2018 budget, $7.8 Trillion hangs in the balance (gains made since the 2016 Presidential election).

The following monthly charts show prices of the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Indices as at 12:15 pm ET today, with the blue horizontal line marking election-day prices.

A lot of investments (including pension funds and 401K accounts) in the U.S. stock markets are at stake...stay tuned for what market chaos may await next Monday.

If only my ancient crystal ball had come with automatic upgrades...👀

Source: ZeroHedge.com

* UPDATE @ market close...