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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Where Are We Now?

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Fri. Oct. 6 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 11, 2023 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Nov. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Friday, May 19, 2023

U.S. DEBT CEILING: Biden Had 100 Days To Negotiate But Rebuffed Republicans

N.B. Inflation was 1.4%
when Trump left office
on Jan. 20, 2021
* See UPDATE below...

Insofar as the proverbial "buck stops at the top" saying dictates, this would then apply to U.S. President Joe Biden, who, for 100 days, refused to negotiate with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy regarding the upcoming expiration of the infamous Debt Ceiling and its extension with respect to his proposed multi-trillion dollar budget.

So, here we are, with the presumed expiry date of June 1st fast approaching and no deal has been reached.

The ball is in Joe Biden's court, inasmuch as a majority of the House approved the Republican's bill which raises the debt ceiling (albeit much less than what Biden wanted), with alterations to his budget.

Democrats have not prepared a counter-plan of their own, and neither has President Biden.

So far, Biden has refused to budge on their offer, and talks have now broken down today...with no deal reached...and the President is nowhere in sight, but chose, instead to attend a G7 meeting in Japan.

The following article provides further details on today's failed negotiations and walk-out.

As you can see from the following graphic, the rise of America's Debt Ceiling has become parabolic and cannot be sustained, especially with President Biden's budget proposal to raise it by another $5.8 Trillion this year!

And, with a possible recession looming in the midst of, still, high inflation (in spite of higher interest rates, courtesy of the Fed), and bankruptcies already on the rise (stressing banks), it behoves Biden to justify (to the American public) exploding the debt even higher.

Reckless Federal Reserve monetary policies, as well as the Biden Administration's out-of-control fiscal spending and radical energy policies, have led to high inflation (9.06% in June 2022) and higher U.S. debt

N.B. Inflation was 1.4% when President Trump left office on January 20, 2021.

Where we go from here is anybody's guess...market players are currently undecided, as well, inasmuch as the SPX is still stuck in its large sideways "Chaos Zone," that I described in my post of March 31, after briefly piercing above its upper edge.

At the moment, price is currently sitting just beneath its channel median, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Failure of the SPX to break and hold above this median and its upper "Chaos Zone," around 4200, could send it back to its lower edge at 3750, or lower to retest 3500, or even 3000.

So, I'll leave you with this little gem...the sum total of Joe's presidency...in his own words...

Seriously, it's no joke! 😕

* UPDATE May 23...

It appears as though President Biden does not take the debt ceiling negotiations seriously and is being seen as negotiating in bad faith...suggesting that there may be some question about the actual default date that has, up to now, been proclaimed as fact by his Treasury Secretary, as described in the following report.

Markets have been fairly subdued and directionless of late, as described above, but just how long investors' patience with this political charade will last is anybody's guess. 

The longer this drags on, there is a greater chance we'll see markets drift lower, until they reach a critical velocity that produces a plunge below major support (3750 on the SPX).


Wednesday, May 17, 2023

RUSSIAGATE PART III...THE FINALE: The Durham Report

* See UPDATES below...

Former Trump administration Attorney General Bill Barr appointed a Special Counsel (John Durham) on October 19, 2020 to determine whether the FBI's "Crossfire Hurricane" investigation of, first, Presidential candidate Donald Trump and, then, President Trump was based on a factual legal predicate, or not.

After nearly three years of investigation, John Durham finally submitted his report on Tuesday, May 12, 2023 to Biden AG Merrick Garland who released it to Congress and the public on May 15...and concluded that the FBI's initiation of an investigation was NOT based on a factual legal predicate, but was, instead, based on political opposition dirt produced by Trump's rival Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's campaign, that was comprised entirely of lies and false accusations of Trump campaign collusions with Russia.

Durham further concluded that the FBI was BIASED against Trump, while exhibiting favour toward potential wrongdoings by Hillary Clinton regarding their investigations of the Clinton Foundation, as well as her use of a private server and private email while she was Secretary of State under President Obama.

He pointed out that, then President Obama and Vice-President Biden were made aware by CIA Director John Brennan of Clinton's attempts to smear Trump before her campaign released the infamous 'Steele Dossier' containing the salacious and false accusations.

Durham's findings are troubling and highlight the presence of political bias in both the DOJ and the FBI...as well as their undue negative influence operation on President Trump's tenure...coupled with the Democrats' repetition of those lies and a mainstream media complicity, spreading them as if they were fact, without ever investigating them, except for a few, such as Fox News.

Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of whether Trump and/or his campaign colluded with Russia leading up to the 2016 Presidential election determined that there was NO collusion in March of 2019. Furthermore, the DOJ Inspector General also found no wrongdoings by Trump or his associates, BUT did find plenty by the FBI. I reported extensively on "Russiagate" in Parts I and II here and here.

This post, Russiagate Part III, marks the end of this particular political hit job against a Presidential candidate, then President of the United States...a Republic that is supposed to be governed by its Constitution and Bill of Rights...which have been violated by a variety of intelligence leaders who sought to influence an election and delegitimize a duly-elected President.

Whether any consequences or accountability are ever delivered to the American public remains to be seen.

Although current FBI Director Christopher Wray claims that reforms have since been implemented in his department to prevent such interference, it's plain to see that someone did not get the memo...take a look at their interference via Twitter in the 2020 Presidential election (The Twitter Files) and their suppression of evidence relating to the Hunter Biden laptop scandal.

Considering the totality of all of these political interferences and false allegations involving Russia, one could argue that any potential U.S. and Russia relationship or alliance against potential threats from China were degraded...instead, the U.S. and NATO have been funding billions of dollars into assisting Ukraine defend itself from an invasion from Russia under Joe Biden's presidency (after defeating President Trump bid for a second term in 2020). 

The United States' national security and economy have been destabilized, as a result, fighting high inflation and an economic crisis.

No doubt, Congress will have more to say on these issues in the coming days/weeks following their own investigations.

The following articles provide further insights regarding the Durham report...there are many more, and I will add them in due course.



ZeroHedge excerpt




Source: New York Post
(front page May 17, 2023)








* UPDATE May 18...

The Washington Post -- trying to "save face" for pushing the Trump-Russia collusion for years -- is continuing with its foolish losing narrative...


* UPDATE May 19...

" Not only did the impossible happen, but they all did it: the Clinton campaign, the FBI, and the media."


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE June 21...

Special Counsel John Durham confirmed in his testimony today before the House Judiciary Committee that there was NO LEGITIMATE BASIS on which the FBI undertook their investigation of then Presidential candidate Donald Trump regarding purported Russia collusion during the 2016 Presidential campaign.

It was all one big fat hoax based on a series of lies undertaken and funded by the Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign and the DNC!

Where's the accountability of the FBI for their nefarious actions in opening and perpetuating this investigation?

And, where's the restitution to former President Trump for the subsequent fallout, chaos and harm that this caused during his presidency?


Thursday, May 04, 2023

Selling Spreads Across U.S. Regional Banks

* See UPDATES below...

Further to numerous articles that I've recently posted describing the collapse of several Regional Banks, the number of shareholders divesting themselves of shares in other Regional Banks is accelerating.

The following graphic contains a list of the top 10 holdings of the Regional Banking ETF, KRE. All of them are down, so far, today.

KRE has continued its plunge down to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic median price zone, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Inasmuch as it represents a snapshot of overall sentiment in the regional banks, I'd say the current state of these banks, in general, is pretty weak.

No one should be surprised that this particular sector of banks is weak, inasmuch as I warned about the state of U.S. banks, in general, in my post of April 10, 2021. As it happens at that time, KRE was close to making its all-time high of 78.81 (set in January of 2022), before it began to drop.

Even though its drop was initially choppy, it's been falling off a cliff since March of this year.

It's trading in a large sideways 'Chaos Zone.' It's had difficulty holding onto and increasing its gains made above 30.00 since January of 2013. It's also trading below its IPO opening price of 48.09 made in June of 2006...right before the 2007/08 Financial Crisis.

I anticipate that KRE will bounce around within that 'Chaos Zone' for some time. However, a drop and hold below 30.00 would signal much more serious consequences for the entire banking system, not only in the U.S., but globally, as well...as occurred in 2007/08/09.

N.B. Given these facts, it's odd that Fed Chairman J. Powell still insists that these banks are secure, when their representative ETF is plainly portraying great weakness...below that leading up to the 07/08 Financial Crisis

Surely one has to wonder if that contagion will spread to the larger banks and the 29 banks deemed too-big-to-fail by the Financial Stability Board of the G20 in 2011. Note that Credit Suisse did, subsequently, fail, as described in my recent posts.

Today's ZeroHedge article has some answers in that regard.

* UPDATE May 5...

And...(lots of) food for thought...(HINT: keep your money safe!)...









(Editor's Note: SATIRE 😏)

* UPDATE May 6...

"It's spooky. Thousands of banks are underwater.

Let's not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the US banking system is potentially insolvent."