WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. May 23 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

New "Buy" Signals for Equities

* See UPDATE below...

New "BUY" signals have just formed on the RSI, MACD and PMO indicators for:

  • SPX:VIX ratio: Price still needs to cross and remain above the 100 level, as outlined in my post of January 29th, and, thus, is still aimless and directionless within the "Uncommitted Zone."


  • MSWORLD Index: The RSI is about to cross above the 50 "BUY" level, possibly by tomorrow (Thursday). Major resistance lies above at 1600, as also mentioned in the above post.


So, while we are now seeing fresh "BUY" signals on these charts, we'll need to see a convincing follow-through and a break and hold above these resistance levels to confirm that a new bull market is emerging in equities, especially in view of the economic weakness that was reported in the last Beige Book Report.

* UPDATE March 3rd:

We'll see if the newly penetrated 100 level holds as support now on the SPX:VIX ratio, as well as the 1600 level on the World Market Index, as shown on the following updated Daily charts of both. If so, it looks as though equity markets are in for a new bull run...possibly to new highs sometime this year. Otherwise, another failure of both of these levels will likely begin a new bear run to new lows.



Monday, February 08, 2016

Banks and Oil Don't Mix

As WTIC Crude Oil goes, so goes Deutsche Bank, as shown on the 5-Year Daily comparison chart below.


Right after the opening bell this morning, DB made a new 5-year low of 15.95, as shown on the Daily chart below. There's no confirmation of a reversal in sight, technically, yet for DB, although the RSI may be hinting at a bit of a slowdown in the plunge.


Meanwhile, Oil is trading at 30.06...1983 prices, as shown on the Monthly chart below.


Both DB and Oil have been especially weak since mid-2014 (DB began falling at the beginning of that year, so whether it was forecasting weakness in Oil is a matter for consideration)...two to watch to see if either gains any support in the near future, or continue their falling-knife action.

*P.S. You can read more regarding the woes facing Deutsche Bank here and here.

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Nikkei Index Teeters on the 2007/08 Brink

*See UPDATE below...

Japan's Nikkei Index is currently trading just above the 17,000 level as I write this post around 9:00 pm ET Tuesday and is down around 3.3% from yesterday's close. You can see from the Monthly chart below that this is around the same level just before the 2007/08 crash.


A drop and hold below 17,000 could spell another big plunge in this index and confirms what I mentioned in my post of January 29th. If it holds, this "island reversal" candle formation on the Daily chart below should produce some "interesting" results!


*UPDATE February 9th:

The above bearish "island reversal" candle formation has been confirmed. After last night's 918.86 point drop, the Nikkei Index now sits just above 16,000, as shown on the following Monthly chart.

Major support sits at 14,000, followed by 12,000.


At the moment (10:05 am ET), the USD/JPY Forex pair is trading at 115.22, as shown on the following Monthly chart.

Major support lies far below at 110.00, followed by 100.00.


The recent extreme moves in both the Nikkei Index and the USD/JPY Forex pair tells me that volatility is not yet over, and, in fact, may have just begun.