WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Winter Bird

Winter Bird

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Feb. 26 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales Ex Autos m/m & Retail Sales m/m
* Wed. Mar. 6 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Mar. 8 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. Mar. 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Mar. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Mar. 22 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9 & Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Wed. Apr. 10 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. Apr. 19 ~ U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Friday, February 22, 2019

Contraction Mode Deepens For Germany's Manufacturing PMI

Germany's Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.

Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month's release (March 22) for possible clues.


The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.


The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.

With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.


Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I've shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.


Thursday, February 14, 2019

Potential Head & Shoulders Forming on Amazon

Amazon (AMZN) is forming a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern, as shown on the following weekly chart.

We'll see whether it plays out, in view of their decision today (Thursday) to abandon their project to build their second headquarters in Long Island, Queens...at a loss of 25,000 job for New York. Their statement is here and it describes the political opposition it received.

Keep an eye on the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC), and average true range (ATR) indicators for direction and velocity purposes going forward. I've shown their input value as one period to illustrate that more clearly.


Core Retail Sales m/m data released today (Thursday) were drastically in the red...a harbinger of things to come, or just a blip? One to watch over the coming months. Another month like this last one could hit AMZN and other retail giants hard.


Happy Valentine's Day


Saturday, February 09, 2019

An Ideological Path To A Liquidity Crisis In U.S. Markets

Look out, corporate and middle America!

There's a new economic and capitalism threat occupying your (Congressional) House...namely, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has been busy sucking all the oxygen out of Democrats' House with the unveiling of her socialism-on-steroids "Green New Deal" this past week. As 2020 Democrats jump on board with her plan/proposed bill, Democratic House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi sarcastically referred to it as the "Green Dream."

If you want to create a liquidity crisis in U.S. equity markets, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. If you want to create an economic crisis, in America, as well as the rest of the world, then go ahead...adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. Foreign and domestic investment in the U.S. will disappear.

As it is, U.S. and global markets have been fragile and volatile for over a year, and absurd political games such as this will only suck the liquidity out and increase volatility at an ever-accelerating pace. Offshore U.S. corporate monies will never be repatriated and invested in America. In fact, more funds will be hidden in offshore accounts under this scenario. This deal is a clever counter-measure to President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted on December 20, 2017. When companies fail to bring offshore monies to the U.S. by the 2020 election, Democrats will claim that the President's policies haven't worked and that Americans should, instead, embrace their ideology. Any benefits gained from this Act will be shattered. At that time, I was pondering whether the Dow 30 Index would reach 25,000. In fact, it reached a high of 26,951.81 in early October 2018 (just prior to the U.S. midterm elections) before it started to tank, and, interestingly enough, it's hovering just above 25,100, as of Friday's close.

You can see from the following weekly chart of the MSCI World Global Index that price rallied, after touching major support at 1800, and is now sitting at a critical intersection of a long-term uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork median and major price resistance level around 2030.


Inasmuch as many Democrats are on board with this destructive deal (adding to political headwinds as I described in this post) and not many Republicans and the business world have dismissed it yet, no doubt more support for it will continue to grow, especially among Millennials.

Just wait until the big bank executives are hauled before Democrat Maxine Waters' Financial Services Committee (on which Ms. Ocasia-Cortez sits as a member) and watch this political farce continue.

Keep an eye on the MSCI World Global Index, because if that begins to implode, you'll see U.S. markets follow suit.

Perhaps GOLD will become the favoured hedge for traders/investors against such a catastrophic scenario...and we'll see the rally accelerate, as I described recently in this post.


Now it looks like Democrats (including Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation) may be faced with serious investigations involving potential collusion with Russia and threats to national security on a variety of matters in the coming weeks, according to this latest report from The Hill's John Solomon. It's anticipated that the U.S. Inspector General will release a report by late spring/early summer in this regard, along with FISA abuse by the DOJ and FBI leading up to the 2016 election and beyond. As well, Senator Lindsay Graham will be investigating these issues, along with this FISA abuse, via his Senate Judiciary Committee.


2019 likely won't be a good year for Democrats as more is uncovered and revealed, including hypocritical racism and selective political support/non-support for alleged "Me Too" victims, which appears to be dependent upon which political party the accused is affiliated with...remember this fiasco during the (then) Judge Kavanaugh (now Justice Kavanaugh) Senate Judiciary hearings?




And, thanks to active socialist resistance to Amazon's proposal to build a second headquarters in Long Island, Queens from New York politicians such as Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Amazon are abandoning their project, which would have created 25,000 jobs...their statement is below.


And, the knock-on effect has erupted...

Source: Bloomberg.com

We'll see if Virginia's politicians are any friendlier towards and supportive of capitalism than New York's...


So, Democrats' far-left socialist movement is already underway and is, seemingly, effective at stopping capitalism in its tracks.

Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell is planning to force a vote in the Senate on this "Green New Deal." We'll see if Senate Democrats and their 2020 Presidential candidates will "put their money where their mouth is" to support it...or not.

Meanwhile...

REALITY CHECK: A good reason to NOT adopt the "Green New Deal"...it would add trillions to the already ballooning $22 Trillion National Debt!


P.S.
They're coming for your cows...time to stock up on Big Macs! 😊
Judge Jeanine's Opening Statement Feb. 9, 2019 on Fox News TV's "Justice With Judge Jeanine"