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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Thursday, February 25, 2021

In The Grand Scheme Of Things: US10YT

After today's gain, the US10YT now sits just above a 10-year major resistance level around 1.50%, as shown on the following monthly chart.

In the grand scheme of things (since 1955), it's still well below normal.

Upside major resistance levels/targets are 2.00% and 3.00%...but a drop and hold below 1.50% could see it return to 1.00%

We may see it consolidate for awhile before its trend becomes clearer, but currently, momentum favours buyers.

Keep an eye on the short-to-medium-term movements of the DX and the XLF for clues, as I've described here and here. A rising US dollar and a falling Financials sector may see buyers continue to support the US10YT.

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

US Dollar At Major Inflection Point

The US Dollar (DX) is hovering precariously just above a major inflection point at 90.00, as shown on the following monthly chart.

A drop and hold below that level could see the DX plunge to around 85.00, or even 80.00, in short order.

However, should the Financials ETF (XLF) drop, as described in my most recent post, we may see DX reverse course and rally towards 95.00, or even 100.00...keep an eye on the XLF for clues.

U.S. Financials Rally Seems Parabolic

The rise of the Financials ETF (XLF) from March 2020 seems rather parabolic when compared with prior rallies over the past two decades, as shown on the following monthly chart.

A pullback may be just around the corner.

A drop and hold below major support at 30.00 could see this sector plummet to around 25.00, or, even 20.00, in short order.

Keep an eye on my post on the US Dollar as a cross-reference for clues.

What One Week Of Fame Looks Like

Who bought at the top? 😕

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

S&P 500 Index Monthly Pivot Points For February 2021

The following pivot point calculations and chart are provided to illustrate a variety of support and resistance levels/price targets on the monthly timeframe for the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

The calculations below are based on the high/low/close of January's candle for February's levels/price targets.

The following monthly chart of the SPX shows that price nearly hit R2 (3957), so far, this month. 

There are only three trading days left; however, we might see a final push up to somewhere in between the 1.50% external Fibonacci level at 3994 and R3 at 4044.

However, a drop and hold below R1 at 3835 may see price drop to somewhere around the PP at 3749, or lower.