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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Wed. July 31 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
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*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Q3 2018 Ends On A High Note For U.S. Equities

Each candle on the following three charts of the S&P 500 Index represents:
  • a period of one month (Chart #1)
  • a period of one quarter (Chart #2)
  • a period of one year (Chart #3)

Each of the last candles on all three timeframes closed higher than its prior time-period candle. 

The most notable feature of the Yearly chart, in particular, is that price could, in fact, reach a resistance target of 3033 (as I described in my post of August 6th) by the end of this year. Such a price level would end up producing a candle range for 2018 on the Yearly timeframe that equals or slightly exceeds the candle range of each of the prior two years. It would also complete a very bullish cycle for this year.

Monthly chart of the SPX

Quarterly chart of the SPX

Yearly chart of the SPX

Each candle on the following three ratio charts of the SPX:VIX Ratio represents:
  • a period of one month (Chart #4)
  • a period of one quarter (Chart #5)
  • a period of one year (Chart #6)

I've mentioned several support levels over the past year...notably 150 and 200, as shown on the Monthly timeframe. Price is slightly below the "Bull Froth" level, but is above the "New Bull Market" level of 200. 280 represents a major hurdle to be reached and overcome on this ratio. 

The Yearly chart shows how volatile price action has been this year, as evidenced by the massive 2018 candle range, and by the multiple re-tests of each of the candles on the Monthly timeframe.

We may see a re-test of part of the Q3 candle for the first-to-mid part of the Q4 candle, particularly as the November 6 mid-term election draws near. However, watch for the Momentum indicator to pop back above the zero level on the Monthly timeframe to signal a fall in volatility if price does not pull back on this ratio. Such price action would set the scene for the SPX to plough ahead towards 3033, with little resistance. In this regard, it's important for it to hold above 2900 (and that the ratio hold above 200), inasmuch as what was once a major resistance level/target (as mentioned in my above-noted article) is now major support.

Monthly Ratio chart of SPX:VIX

Quarterly Ratio chart of SPX:VIX

Yearly Ratio chart of SPX:VIX

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Internet Trolls, Anonymous Sources, Political Rumours & Innuendos: Their Effect (Or Not) On U.S. Equity Markets



There are a number of definitions of an internet troll...a couple of them are as follows...

Trolls are anonymous. It seems to me that any news article that contains the use of anonymous sources would be akin to using trolls for information...or, rather, dis-information.

The most egregious example is this September 5 New York Times op-ed, which is actually authored by an anonymous source...hence, a troll. One of the paragraphs in this article (excerpt below) is especially troubling in that it hints of some kind of a nefarious outcome (impeachment) for President Trump, or, even, poses a threat of some kind (the highlights are mine).

This letter to the editor of the New York Times by Kevin McCarthy, Congressional House Majority Leader, says, in part, that, "The anonymous official's essay is shocking. He should be exposed and fired." "Whatever else the anonymous essay accomplishes, its ultimate effect will be to erode the legitimate authority of the president, in this and subsequent administrations."

The problem with trolls is that they cannot be identified, their credentials and information challenged, and, thus, be held fully accountable for their accusations. This will continue until and unless trolls step forward and properly identify themselves. In the meantime, their words are simply empty, inflammatory, confusing, meaningless, and without validity. They deserve to be ignored.


For readers to decide what is truth or fiction in order to formulate an appropriate response and action, they should be given provable, reliable facts, not innuendos, and not have the truth hidden from them, as seems to be the case with the long-standing quest by Congress to determine the legal basis for Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein's special counsel (Robert Mueller) investigation, as described in former Chief Assistant U.S. Attorney, Andrew McCarthy's article.

Is the reason for Mr. Rosenstein's appointment of Mr. Mueller contained in this September 21 New York Times article (a piece which references claims made by anonymous sources and where wiring and impeaching the President are also mentioned, supposedly by Mr. Rosenstein...by the way, if the President was not a "target" or "subject" of Mr. Mueller's Russian/Trump campaign collusion investigation, as mentioned in my article on August 6, why would any DOJ/FBI discussion have occurred at all with respect to, potentially, recording conversations with Mr. Trump and, subsequently, making a case for his impeachment)? Or, is this article just another hit job against the Trump administration? Or does it explain Mr. Rosenstein's reluctance to release details of Mr. Mueller's mandate to Congress, as well as to declassify and release all the documents that Congress has been seeking for the past year and as was directed by the President this week, but which was bounced back to the President and delayed, yet again, as shown in the following tweets?


So far, these rumours of impeachment by unnamed sources, as well as threats of impeachment -- of, not only the President, but also of Judge Kavanaugh if he's confirmed to the Supreme Court by the Senate -- by some Democrats if they retake the House and Senate, seem not to have impacted the U.S. equity markets, as they continue to march to new highs (FACT: 36 of 49 Democratic Senators had already said they'd vote against Judge Kavanaugh even before Ms. Ford's allegations against him were made public. And, it's interesting that all four of her alleged witnesses have failed to corroborate her story in their sworn statements to the Senate Judiciary Chairman. By the way, I guarantee that, no matter the outcome of the confirmation vote in the Senate, the process, itself, leading up to it will be demeaned, denigrated and smeared by Democrats and the media...how can I be so sure?...because it already is and they look foolish to the rest of the world).

We'll see how much longer the equity buying continues, and whether any of these rumours and innuendos turn into facts anytime soon (particularly as the November 6th mid-term elections are fast approaching), as political rhetoric and media attacks (including vile male-bashing remarks) are becoming increasingly unseemly and vicious.

Furthermore, Democrats are pushing an increasingly far left-leaning, anti-economic, socialist, open-border agenda, replete with fear-mongering tactics (gobbledygook), as their platform leading into the elections, which threatens to derail market gains and investment in the U.S. by both domestic and foreign investors, alike. The fallout from this could cause a negative impact on other world markets and economies.

It's noteworthy that U.S. markets have seen a $9.3 Trillion growth in value since President Trump began fulfilling his 2016 campaign promises immediately following the November 8th election. It seems that investors have had confidence in the President and are supportive of his policies, rather than thinking he is unfit for office to warrant impeachment.

Percentage Gains made in the U.S. Major Indices since the 2016 Presidential Election

* UPDATE October 9...


Further developments are noted in this article regarding Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and others in the DOJ and FBI...no doubt, more will be revealed in the next few days...

Sunday, September 02, 2018

The Truth About U.S. & Canadian Dairy Farmers

Further to my articles herehere and here regarding trade and NAFTA, I came across this interesting Toronto Star article, which describes the truth about the oversupply of milk production in the United States.

Source: The Toronto Star

Canada already controls its Canadian milk production to ensure that its producers can sustain a living, while adequately satisfying its domestic demand. It's no fault of Canada that the U.S. has not done the same with respect to its domestic production and consumption.

It's notable that President Trump would rather try to bully Canadians into buying more than they need by forcing U.S. dairy products on them, rather than addressing his own domestic oversupply issues, or look for other export markets. As I mentioned previously, Canada has a population of only 36.95 million versus 327,867,715 (on June 7, 2018) in the U.S., so Canadians can consume only so much milk, compared with Americans...they don't need to be force-fed more! And, they certainly don't need to be ordered to consume American products or be threatened with auto tariffs if they don't comply with his bullying whims.

So, Mr. Trump, don't blame Canada for your country's own mismanagement issues! It appears as though some Americans are already studying a proposal for a "Sustainable Milk Inventory System Act," which has been summarized as a "U.S. version of the Canadian system with improvements," as noted in the following excerpt from the above article. Perhaps you could learn a thing or two from your own farmers, who are actively seeking solutions to their problems...in spite of your own inaction on this issue and reversion to trade bluster, instead, and punitive threats to dump and flood your country's excess dairy into Canada, while, at the same time, complaining that China is dumping and flooding its excess steel into world markets...the pot calling the kettle black!