WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 15 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Thurs. July 16 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. July 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Aug. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Aug. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Monday, January 27, 2020

S&P Emini Futures Intraday Targets For 01/27/20

Monday's (January 27) intraday Pivot Point targets for the S&P Emini Futures Index (ES) are (as shown on the following 30-day 60-min chart):

R3 = 3415.83
R2 = 3359.33
R1 = 3325.17
PP = 3302.83
S1 = 3268.67
S2 = 3246.33
S3 = 3189.83

Weekly VWAP = 3262.10
Monthly VWAP = 3280.73
50-hr MA = 3312.46
200-hr MA = 3311.36
*Note that the 50-hr MA is about to cross below the 200-hr MA on this 60-min timeframe...hinting of further weakness ahead if a crossover holds.

All of these levels represent intraday support and resistance levels for Monday.


The following daily chart of the ES contains an Andrew's Pitchfork and a Fibonacci Retracement study.

The near term support level is around the 3223 to 3235 zone...a convergence of the bottom of the pitchfork channel and the 23.6 Fib retracement level. This zone is also the closest in price to the S2 pivot point level (3246.33). As I write this post Sunday night around 11:30 pm ET, the ES is hovering just above S2. A break and hold below this price, could send the ES to its next support level at 3189.83 (S3).

We've not yet seen an extreme spike on the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator and the Average True Range (ATR), so Sunday's night's drop may not yet be finished. Note that I've shown the input value of each of these indicators as one period and in histogram format to show (in an exaggerated view) where the extreme spikes occurred in the past, which tend to represent, either a turning point, or a level at which consolidation occurs before a trend reversal takes place.


Finally, the following daily ratio chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that price has dropped below the 50 MA and may be headed down to the 200 MA around the 200 price support level.

The RSI has dropped below the 50 level, and both the MACD and PMO indicators have formed a bearish crossover, all of which are hinting of lower prices on the SPX and higher volatility in the near term.

If the ES breaks and holds below S2 (3246.33), prepare for a potential drop to S3 (3189.83) and a retest of 200 (or lower) on the SPX:VIX ratio.


Saturday, January 18, 2020

Most Shocking Political Quote Of The Week

This shocker is what Democrat House Speaker *Nancy Pelosi said on January 16 during her Weekly Briefing about the House impeachment witnesses...

"It's not a question of saying, what proof. It says, what allegations have been made."





Judge Jeanine's Opening Statement January 18, 2020...



Let's hope the Senate is a lot more savvy than House Democrats and the Speaker when it comes to judging whether they (the House) have proved that their (entirely partisan) Articles of Impeachment against the President are de facto Constitutional "High Crimes and Misdemeanors," that would actually warrant a "guilty" verdict to be rendered by the Senate!

Otherwise, I despair for the future of the Republic of the United States of America and their Constitution. It has already been stained by the nonsensical and hysterical partisan actions perpetrated by *Nancy Pelosi.

Click this link to read more about these documents.

*Nancy Pelosi: Someone who will be remembered as somebody who once ran a gift shop on the Hill and handed out some free gold pens with her name on it -- at the expense of taxpayers -- but was unable to sell what she was peddling to them.

AKA: Somebody who has also earned an asterisk.





Thursday, January 16, 2020

President Trump's Legacy: In The Making...


I've written a number of posts over the past couple of years on the subject of President Trump's legacy, some of which have been quite critical (scathing, to be exact) of his actions, some in defence of his other actions, some critical of situations created by others against him, and some of which have showcased his achievements. I tried to capture, as best I could, what I saw as truths, at that time.

My most recent post on that subject contained a document that outlined 319 achievements that Mr. Trump has made in the 3 years since he took office.

I would note that, as of today's date (January 16), the U.S. has, under President Trump, successfully signed new trade agreements with South Korea, Japan, Mexico/Canada (USMCA), and China (Phase I).

The USMCA was approved by the Senate today (approved by the House on December 19, 2019) and the China Phase I deal was signed by the President and China yesterday. Both of these deals were made this week while Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's impeachment team delivered their Two Articles of Impeachment to the Senate for their upcoming trial of President Trump, which will begin next Tuesday.

It's ironic that, while the President has been busy working for the people of the United States and producing actual tangible results (319 of them), Democrat Congressmen/women have been working to remove him and overturn the results of the 2016 election, and have accomplished nothing on behalf of the voters. The contrast could not be more extreme.


The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has rallied from its November 2016 low of 2083.79 to a high of 3317.50, reached today...for a gain of 55.61% since the November 8, 2016 Presidential election.

Interestingly, the market did not implode, in spite of all the dire predictions made by numerous agonizing/hand-wringing media pundits, political opponents, and economic analysts at that time.

The following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it's well on its way to its target of 3350, as mentioned in my post of January 9.

I've shown the input value on the Average True Range (ATR) as one period to show that, as of today, it's not registering at an extreme high reading on the monthly timeframe, suggesting that this rally has not begun to turn frothy and overbought, yet.

Likewise, the Balance of Power indicator has not yet reached an extreme high, suggesting further upside is possible.

For the time being, the U.S. equity market seems unfazed by Democrat impeachment shenanigans.


P.S.

To clarify...it appears that the "Wall Street Powers-That-Be" have not been encumbered by negative emotions about Trump, nor have they stopped to second-guess (or examine in detail) the soundness of his numerous deals and executive orders that he's completed during the past 3 years. Instead, it seems they're satisfied that they ARE concluded, thereby eliminating indecision, which seems to have more of a crippling (or dampening) impact on their decision-making in the markets.

So, watch for an ATR extreme spike, or a series of spikes, on the SPX monthly chart as a potential signal that "TPTB" have, either, lost faith in the President, or that an outside unforeseen event is triggering a market turnaround.

In other words, follow the money. And ATR spikes (with an input value of one period) may provide a clue as to turnaround points and where money may be headed. This is something I've been monitoring on ETFs for approximately the past 10 years...seems to be a good tool to have in one's kit.

Thursday, January 09, 2020

SPX Outperforming GOLD & OIL

Further to my post of January 5, the following provides an update on price action as of today's (Thursday's) close.

The following monthly chart shows the SPXGOLD and OIL in comparison format, as well as their respective high, low and today's closing price for January, so far.

The instrument currently facing the "path of least resistance" is the SPX. It shot through prior near-term resistance (now support) of 3233 and continues to rally.

While GOLD and OIL tested (and briefly overshot) their near-term resistance levels of 1600 and 65.00, respectively, they've retreated substantially. Not only do these remain near-term resistance levels, there is considerable overhead supply above those levels, presenting the "path of greatest resistance."


The following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart shows price nearing its prior historical highs around 280 or just above.

To confirm an SPX continued rally, watch for:
  • the RSI to break and hold above its downtrend formation and hold above 50.00
  • the recent bullish MACD crossover to hold
  • the PMO to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • as I mentioned in my above-referenced post, the next major resistance level (target) for the SPX is 3350


The following GOLD:GVZ daily ratio chart shows that price is caught between its 50 and 200 moving averages.

To confirm whether the recent GOLD pullback reverses and retests 1600, or higher, watch for:
  • the RSI to break and hold above 50.00
  • the MACD to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • the PMO to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • price to blow through and hold above the 50 MA at 127.67

Otherwise, watch for GOLD weakness to continue, especially if the ratio price breaks and holds below its 200 MA at 114.27.


The following WTIC:OVX daily ratio chart shows that price is caught between its 50 and 200 moving averages.

To confirm whether the recent OIL pullback reverses and retests 65.00, or higher, watch for:
  • the RSI to reverse, break and hold above 50.00
  • the MACD to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • the PMO to form a bullish crossover and hold
  • price to blow through and hold above the 50 MA at 1.93

Otherwise, watch for OIL weakness to continue, especially if the ratio price breaks and holds below its 200 MA at 1.78.


Sunday, January 05, 2020

SPX/GOLD/OIL: Too Hot or Not?

I'll simply summarize and provide the major resistance and support levels for the SPX, GOLD and OIL shown on the following monthly charts and you can judge for yourselves whether strength or weakness is in the cards in the near term.

SPX:

As I mentioned in my post of December 29, 2019, the SPX hit my Q4 target of 3233 by year end. It happens to coincide with a +4 standard deviation of a long-term uptrending regression channel and has now formed near-term support. Its next support sits around 3070 (the +3 channel deviation).

The next major resistance level is around 3350, which intersects with this regression channel's +5 standard deviation.

The RSI, MACD and Stochs technical indicators are strongly in bull territory, but are approaching overbought status. However, this doesn't mean an automatic pullback is imminent...rather, we may see some profit-taking occur in the near term, resulting in a minor consolidation...caution is warranted on the "BUY" side.


GOLD:

Gold is approaching a major resistance level at 1600. It has popped above the upper edge of a rising channel around 1545, which is now major support. Its next support sits around 1450 (confluence of price support and the +1 channel deviation).

The RSIMACD and Stochs technical indicators are strongly in bull territory, but are approaching overbought status. However, this doesn't mean an automatic pullback is imminent...rather, we may see some profit-taking occur, resulting in a minor consolidation...caution is warranted on the "BUY" side as price approaches 1600. If it blows through that price, we may see it shoot for 1,800, or higher, in the near-to-medium term.


OIL:

Price is approaching first resistance around 65.00 (+1 deviation of a rising channel), followed by 70.00ish (in between the 200-month moving average and upper band of the channel).

Major support sits at 60.00 (confluence of price support and the channel median).

The RSIMACD and Stochs technical indicators have recently moved into bull territory on this timeframe. I'd say that, of these three instruments, OIL has the most potential to continue to be a "BUY." However, caution is warranted on the "buy" side as price approaches 65.00. If it blows through that price, we may see it shoot for 70.00, or higher, in the near term.


Wednesday, January 01, 2020