Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Monday, April 30, 2018

Our Evolution from the First Bite of the Apple to Data Analytics

Who says science and religion can't mix? At first glance, they seem to be polar opposites.

Science relies purely on the collection and analyzing of data and facts and then developing theories around them.

Religion relies on faith and a personal belief system in an unseen entity or supreme being.

One could argue that the Biblical story of Adam and Eve taking a bite from the apple from God's "forbidden tree of knowledge of good and evil" foretold of a time when humans would have the capacity to collect and analyze data and facts ("good" and "evil" knowledge), then develop theories/hypotheses around them for some purpose that could, ultimately determine our survival or our demise.

It seems that we, as a human species, have travelled from the time of humanity's first bite of the apple to today's massive technological data collection and analytics capabilities. We have the ability to undertake:
  • descriptive analytics (answer what happened)
  • diagnostic analytics (why it happened)
  • predictive analytics (what may happen)
  • prescriptive analytics (what we should do)

What we will do with all of that data, and for what purpose, remains a mystery, so far, and whether or not it will benefit humankind remains to be seen. More importantly, who will make those decisions is in question, i.e., humans or artificial intelligence. This is happening right now as Facebook is developing artificial intelligence (algorithms) to determine what data is considered acceptable on their social media platform. Additionally, algorithmic institutional trading in the markets has been widely implemented for awhile, now. As well, intelligence agencies have been gathering and analyzing data for years.

So, really, it's not a question of whether or not science and religion can mix, but it raises a question as to which came first...and leaves me wondering how can they be blended to most beneficially enrich our lives, collectively. It seems to me that if artificial intelligence ends up making those decisions, there would be no room for such blending and our current enjoyment of "free will" becomes extinct.

At what point does artificial intelligence take over? It begins the day we first cede our power to it.

Time is of the essence in figuring out these answers before irreversible mistakes are made and it's too late for the survival of the human race.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

The Media's Idea of "Entertainment?"...P.S. Your Legacy is Showing

Dear Media,

How low can you go to amuse yourselves with this kind of "entertainment?" The following video is from last night's White House Correspondents' Dinner.

No wonder people don't trust and are turned off by the mainstream media, as well as so-called comedians, with this kind of divisive...vile...hate-filled...racist...diatribe!

As an aside, why Netflix will be airing this woman's new talk show is beyond me.

Link to article: The Washington Post

In any event, Ms. Wolf just proved Sarah's comments from a year ago...

Lastly, I wonder why on earth any self-respecting international foreign investor would be attracted to plough money into job creation for Americans when most (not all) of the media has insisted in broadcasting a non-stop narrative that has sought to demean President Trump and his entire administration (including his cabinet), as well as his wife and family (including his 12-year old son), since his 2016 election and make a mockery of the democratic process by which he was duly elected.

First you elect him, then minutes later seek to impeach him!

Such destructive activities only create a "banana-republic-like" atmosphere of instability and economic weakness in the USA for all the world to see.

Is that really the legacy you wish to leave behind? Because you're writing your legacy every day...and it's showing.

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Can The South Korea ETF Hold Onto Its Record Breakout?

* See UPDATES below...

The monthly chart below of the South Korea ETF (EWY) shows January's breakout to new all-time highs, followed by a brief pullback and rally back to close above its prior record high of 75.05 in March (now near-term support). Price is cautiously extending these gains, so far this month, while experiencing quite a bit of whipsaw movement on a daily basis.

It's also sitting just above the bottom of a long-term uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork channel around the 70.00 level (major support). Its next major support level is around 60.00 on this timeframe.

Both the momentum and rate-of-change indicators have been waning since last October, but remain above zero. A drop and hold below zero, as well as price drop below 70.00, could see price retest 60.00, or lower.

The daily chart below of EWY shows this whipsaw action (which began last October and which has formed a diamond pattern), and volumes have been high for the past couple of months.

Price is still above the 50-day MA and the RSI, MACD and PMO indicators have just formed a new "BUY" signal. However, this diamond pattern can be a bearish topping formation after a lengthy run up, so a certain amount of caution is warranted, especially with price near its recent all-time high.

Beware of a break with force on escalating volumes below the diamond bottom around 70.00 (which sits below the 200-day MA) as price could very well drop back to 60.00, or lower.

We'll see what happens following Friday's opening talks between the North and South Korean leaders to denuclearize the Korean peninsula and forge a peace agreement, and how further discussions may affect the EWY over the coming days/weeks, particularly in the lead-up to President Trump's proposed meeting with Kim Jong Un in the next couple of months.

* UPDATE April 30...

However, judging from NOKO's past violations of all previous nuclear agreements over the years, I wouldn't hold my breath that the words "Nobel Peace Prize" and "North Korea" will ever appear in the same sentence, despite what some are now excitedly hypothesizing.

Leopards (predators) don't change their spots...they only wish to make themselves relevant by pretending that they will...so, the onus is on Kim Jong Un to be the first to do so on that front and prove that as a verifiable and irreversible fact, while holding onto his power and control in NOKO...good luck with that.

Source: Reuters.com April 30/18

* UPDATE May 16...

Now that Kim Jong Un is revealing his true intentions (with his return to inflammatory rhetoric these past couple of days) that he will not actually disarm and denuclearize NOKO and that his recent (and past) words and promises to do so are empty, I really don't see any good reason for President Trump to meet with him in June. What's the point?

Once again, Chairman Kim is just show-boating and wasting everybody's time with his propaganda and insincerity...and still wearing his leopard skin...that's clear for all to see. He craves and loves attention and limelight and is a nobody without it.

Let him remain a nobody, Mr. President. Instead, use your time more wisely to further fulfill your election agenda to your citizens, including protecting their national security and economic well-being.


* UPDATE May 24...

President Trump cancels the June 12th summit with North Korea after North Korea failed to show up for scheduled pre-summit meetings in Singapore (while U.S. representatives waited there for 3 days) and didn't answer repeated phone calls for days on end, as well as made new threats of a nuclear orgy...

Twitter Link to video

And, once again, childish and anti-American/national security rhetoric come from Democrats (and, most of the media) in order to mock President Trump (it sounds like they're on North Korea's side and don't want the U.S. to succeed with peace-making efforts)...

Source: InsiderFoxNews.com

* UPDATE May 25...

Mr. President, I repeat...don't waste your breath on North Korea. 

Kim and his regime are clearly not serious and will never completely and irreversibly denuclearize and give up their weapons. Nor will they ever allow full and transparent inspections or allow their citizens to enjoy peaceful democratic freedom. They do not value western democratic principles, so do not expect them to embrace such a concept because it's simply beyond their capability.

* UPDATE June 1...

Final thoughts...I have to wonder why Kim Jong Un would actually trust that, if NOKO did completely and verifiably denuclearize NOKO, blow up all their test sites, and disarm and turn over their weapons to the US (rather than, say, to China), any deal that he might make with this current US President would be upheld and honoured by future Presidents to guarantee the safety and security of him and his regime, in perpetuity. We've already seen how two vastly different Presidents operate under Obama and Trump...and how one administration's policies and agreements can be scrapped with the stroke of a pen.

I just don't see the US and NOKO ever agreeing on what the west really wants.

If some kind of a deal is struck, I wonder just how transparent all the facts will be outlined in any agreement that gets released to the public.

Call me a skeptic...with eyes wide open...

Source: @FoxBusiness

Friday, April 27, 2018

US Equity Markets Remain Locked In Limbo

Like a tightly-coiled spring, Major US Indices and Sectors remain trapped in tight consolidation zones, so far, this year, as shown on the following daily charts.

What's remarkable is that the swings on their rate-of-change indicators (with an input value of 1 day) have been getting smaller and smaller...hinting that markets may explode in one direction or the other at some point.

As yet, the catalyst to drive such a move remains a mystery. Perhaps more will be revealed next Wednesday (May 2) when the Fed's interest rate decision is announced, along with any new forward-guidance revelations.

In this regard, keep an eye on the major currencies' ROC for clues, as well as US Bonds. While the ROC is expanding (to the downside) on the XBP, it is expanding (to the upside) on the USD, and the others remain trapped, as shown on the daily charts below.

A major shift into USD and USB buying may signal a weakening of equities.

Thursday, April 26, 2018

SPX Reclaims 2650 Level: Dead-Cat Bounce or Higher Prices Ahead?

I last wrote about the SPX, 10YT and SPX:VIX ratio here.

After this morning's gap up, and as at 1:00 pm ET, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has popped back above its 2650 major resistance/support level, as shown on the following daily chart.

It's back in the red zone in between 2700 and 2650, which form major resistance and support, respectively. Near-term resistance levels are 2673 and 2692 (formed by intersecting channel lines).

The momentum indicator is still below zero, so any further rally should bring it back above that level to support further SPX strength. Otherwise, beware of a potential "dead-cat bounce" as price either stays mired in the red zone, or drops back below 2650, to, possibly, lower lows for the year.

The SPX:VIX ratio has popped back above the 150.00 Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

The RSI has also popped back above the 50 level. However, the MACD and PMO indicators are showing signs of weakening, so watch for any bearish crossover, as well as a drop of the RSI back below 50 to signal rising volatility and potential sustained selling in the SPX.

After the 10YT popped briefly above the 3% level, it has fallen back below, as shown on the following daily chart.

The recently-expanding action of the momentum and relative volatility index indicators, in both directions, reflects the increased volatility in the SPX, of late.

A break and hold above 3% could blunt any further rally in the SPX. If that happens, watch to see whether MOM and RVI produce higher swing highs to confirm its sustainability above that level.

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

NOKO Fallout

Source: ZeroHedge.com
The cumulative, reckless actions over the years of this so-called "very open" and "very honourable" man (Kim Jong Un) could cause a multitude of world-wide devastating effects...and he should be held accountable by ALL world leaders...

President Trump, tear off those rose-coloured glasses! And, just give us the straight goods.

Leader Kim Jong Un...may you always be surrounded by snow...

Source: FoxNews.com April 27 

* UPDATE May 11...

Source: FoxNews.com

Bitcoin Drop Ahead?

* See UPDATE below...

Presented without comment (will see where it closes today)...

* UPDATE: How BITCOIN closed today...

Bear Trap for Short-Sellers of FAANGs?

Was Tuesday's downdraft just a shakeout of and a bear trap for short-sellers, or the beginning of further weakness in the FAANGs + 5 Tech stocks that make up FNGU?

Keep an eye on the ROC and the zero level on Chart #1 below. It's shown with an input value of 12 days (its default setting).

So far, only AAPL and TSLA's ROC has dropped below zero. If the others follow suit in the coming days, we may see a big selloff occur in Tech, overall.

Chart #2 shows an ROC input value of 1 day to give you an idea of overactive price movement from one day to the next.

After Tuesday's drop, the ROC on NFLX and GOOG are notable as they approach 6-month triple-bottom lows...FNGU isn't far behind. A drop and hold below this triple bottom on these may negatively influence the others...in particular, keep an eye of FB and AMZN's ROC for any evidence of increasing selling strength.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

SPX Drops Below Major Support As 10-Yr Yields Tags 3%

* See UPDATE below...

I last wrote about the S&P 500 Index on April 19 and also included a couple of updates later that day.

I mentioned that its latest rally that tagged 2700 was weak and that the intraday action that day was hinting that it could be a pivot point where we'd see price either spike back up to 2700 or plunge down to 2650, or lower.

As at 1:30 pm ET today (Tuesday) the SPX has plunged below 2650 as the 10-Yr Treasury Yields tagged 3%, as shown on the following daily chart.

Furthermore, the SPX:VIX ratio has also broken below the Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level of 150.00, as shown on the daily ratio chart below. Price is sitting just above the 50-day MA.

The RSI has dropped below 50.00. If the MACD and PMO cross over to the downside, and the RSI remains below 50.00, this would form a new "SELL" signal and indicate further weakness ahead for the SPX on rising volatility.

Also, keep an eye on the 10-YT to see whether it breaks back and holds above 3% to, potentially, exacerbate such equity weakness.

* UPDATE: closing prices...

Is 90.00 a Floor for the US Dollar?

The following monthly chart of the US Dollar (DX) contains three Andrew's Pitchfork channels. The channel median apex for the two largest ones (pink and blue) sits at 90.00 and forms major channel support.

Price has been swirling around 90.00 since mid-January of this year. Recently, the DX has found support at the bottom of the smallest channel (green), which begins in March 2008. The momentum indicator has made a lower swing low, so it remains in downtrend on this timeframe and is still below the zero level, but has recently hooked upward.

The following weekly chart of the DX shows that price has popped back above 90.00, after making a lower price swing low. However, the momentum indicator made a diverging higher swing low and has popped back above the zero level.

So, is price finally stabilizing at 90.00? Watch for the MOM to make a new swing high on this timeframe on any further rally to support further strength in the DX in the weeks ahead, as well as for the MOM to break and hold above zero on the monthly timeframe.

Otherwise, failure to do so may see price drop to new lows this year. I had mentioned a long-term Fibonacci retracement level of 84.55 in my post of February 10, which is still in effect as major Fib support.

Sunday, April 22, 2018

From This Week's "Smile File"...A Cup of Tea and a Biscuit

It's the weekend...relax...put your feet up...and enjoy a cup of tea and a "Biscuit"...

N.B. Be sure to click the "x" next to the volume icon in the 
lower left corner of video after you click the "play button."

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Commodity Money Flow for 2018: Keep an Eye on Dr. Copper

The following three graphs show the percentages gained/lost for commodities for:
  • 2018 (Oil and Gasoline have been the big winners),
  • the month of April (Copper and Silver have joined Oil and Gasoline as the biggest gainers),  and
  • the past week (Silver and Copper have gained the most, followed by Oil and Gasoline).

The following 1-year and 2-month charts of these commodities show their price relative to their 50-day MA, as well as their prior swing highs/lows, all of which form their respective resistance/support levels.

The expanding swings on the rate-of-change indicator (and new 2-month ROC swing high) on Copper and Silver reflect the recent buying in these two metals. I've shown it with an input value of 1 day to measure its strength/weakness from one day to the next to depict short-term interest. So, it's one indicator that can be monitored to gauge potential sustainability of any further rally next week and beyond...at the moment, it's hinting of further strength to come.

Lastly, the following monthly chart of Copper shows longer-term major resistance and support (as defined by overlapping Fibonacci retracement levels) around 3.30 and 2.94, respectively. A breakout (and hold) above or below this tightly congested zone could produce a sizable move to follow.

Friday, April 20, 2018

Oil & Gold vs. Oil & Gold Volatility Indices

Chart #1 is a monthly chart of WTIC Crude Oil (in the upper half) and the CL:OVX ratio (depicted in histogram format in the lower half).

As I've noted recently, the major price resistance and support levels are 80.00 and 60.00, respectively.

Corresponding to those are the major ratio resistance and support levels of 3.00 and 2.00, respectively. In this regard, it will be important for the ratio to remain above 2.00 and the ratio 5 MA to remain above the 8 MA to confirm an upward bias on Oil on this timeframe.

Chart #1

Chart #2 shows this ratio in candle format on a daily timeframe.

In the short term, watch for it to break and hold above its 50 MA, for the RSI to pop and hold above 50.00, and for the MACD and PMO to form bullish crossovers in order to confirm such upward bias.

Chart #2

Chart #3 is a monthly chart of Gold (in the upper half) and the GC:GVZ ratio (depicted in histogram format in the lower half).

The major price resistance and support levels are 1350 and 1250, respectively.

Corresponding to those are the major ratio resistance and support levels of 80.00 and 60.00, respectively. In this regard, it will be important for the ratio to remain above 60.00 and the ratio 5 MA to remain above the 8 MA to confirm an upward bias on Gold on this timeframe.

Chart #3

Chart #4 shows this ratio in candle format on a daily timeframe.

In the short term, watch for it to break and hold above its 50 & 200 MAs, for the RSI to pop and hold above 50.00, and for the MACD and PMO to form bullish crossovers in order to confirm such upward bias.

Chart #4

Thursday, April 19, 2018

S&P 500 Index: Intraday Support & Resistance Levels

* See UPDATE below...

The following 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shows intraday support and resistance levels at 2650 and 2700, respectively.

The momentum and relative volatility index technical indicators have plunged on today's action, so far (as at 1:15 pm ET, Thursday April 19), and price has fallen back into the lower 1/4 of the uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork channel...all of which are suggesting that the latest attempted rally that began on April 2 is pretty weak, but the pullbacks that have occurred since then have been tight and shallow.

However, the level of volatility and momentum in today's intraday action may indicate that this may end soon and that today will mark a pivot point of some kind. Either we'll see price break free of this tight trading action and spike to 2700, or we'll see price plunge down to 2650, with a continued breakout in either direction.

We'll see what happens by the end of the week.

* UPDATE @ close...

Price rallied somewhat into today's close, as shown on the 60 minute chart of the SPX below. The momentum indicator is still below zero, while the relative volatility index indicator has popped above the 50.00 level.

Should price break and hold above 2700, watch for MOM and RVI to move up and hold above zero and 50.00, respectively, to confirm the sustainability of a further rally. Otherwise, a failure to do so may see price retest 2650, or lower.

Either way, it appears to me that it's winding up for a strong price move, one way or the other.

N.B. One last chart to keep an eye on is the following SPX:VIX ratio chart (monthly timeframe).

Price has popped back up and is currently above the 150 Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level. It will need to hold above that and break and hold above 200 if we're to see any kind of sustained rally in the SPX to, potentially, new highs.