Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Wed. June 12 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. July 31 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Sept. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Thurs. Nov. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Sunday, December 29, 2019

SPX: What's In Store For The 2020s & 2030s?


Each candle on the following chart of the SPX represents a period of one year.

From 1932 to 1972, it, essentially, rallied for 40 years, particularly for the latter 30 years. From 1974 to 2000, its bull run lasted for 26 years. For the past 10 years, it's also been in a strong bull market.

Very simply, history shows that, for the most part, the SPX has been a strong (BUY) candidate for longer-term investors over an average of 30 years running, and that is likely to be repeated for another 10-20 years, generally speaking.

As I write this post on December 28 (with only 2 trading days left in 2019), the following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it has gained 340% from its March 2009 lows.

The Balance of Power is currently under the control of buyers and has yet to match prior highs...hinting of further upside potential for 2020.

Furthermore, if the 2020s are as strong as the 2010s, look for a similar percentage gain through to 2030...and, possibly again to 2040...before we eventually see a meaningful pullback/consolidation for, perhaps, 10 years through to 2050.

As long as the Technology Sector (Nasdaq Composite Index) remains strong through 2020, as I wrote in my post of December 26, no doubt that will bode well for the SPX.

The following monthly chart shows a gain of 554% for the past 10 years. The gains in the tech sector have outpaced the U.S. markets, in general. That is likely to continue and, possibly, strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years as innovation accelerates...buoying the rest of the markets, in turn...one to watch!

N.B. By the way, the SPX managed to hit my Q4 target of 3233 by the end of this year, as I forecast in my post of September 29...(the monthly chart below is from that post).

P.S. So, as I asked in my post of December 24 [one-day $34.4 Billion U.S. retail sales and $17 Trillion global market gains (21.68%) this year], "What's not to like, Joe?"

Happy New Year!

* UPDATE Feb. 5, 2023...

From the date this article was posted, the SPX rallied another 1,600 points to a high of 4817.88 by January 2022, as shown on the following monthly chart.

It, subsequently, pulled back to a low of 3490 by October 2022 and has rallied somewhat to 4136.48.

The monthly timeframe is still in a technical downtrend and price action during 2022 has been very choppy and volatile, producing very large daily, weekly and monthly swings.

I analyzed a number of markets in my 2023 Market Forecast and came to the following conclusions...

So, where the SPX goes from here, is anybody's guess...for now...but, I have a feeling that the volatility, choppiness, and large-scale swings have not yet disappeared. 

And, with Joe Biden as the current President (since January 2021), I'm sure that those conditions will persist for, at least, the rest of 2023...and, possibly, until the end of his first term in January 2025.

And, as I concluded in my aforementioned forecast, the SPX may drop to 3200, or lower, either before the end of this year, or by the end of Biden's first term...BEFORE we see the SPX resume its historical BULL RUN into the end of the 2020s and 2030s.