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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

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DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Thursday, June 30, 2011

Wrap-up for June...Q2...and the 1st Half of 2011

Quite a turnaround for equities in the last week of June to end the second half of the month on a more positive note than the first half...

Here's how YM, ES, NQ & TF closed on their Monthly charts...as can be seen, price ended in between support and resistance levels.

Each candle on the next 4 charts of the Major Indices represents One Yearly-Quarter...you can see how Q2 of 2011 closed today...

Dow 30:

 S&P 500:

Nasdaq Composite:

Russell 2000:

Each candle on the next 4 charts of the Major Indices represents One Year...you can see how the First Half of 2011 closed today...

Dow 30:

S&P 500:

Nasdaq Composite:

Russell 2000:

While not as bullish as the first half of 2009 and 2010, the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell are "nevertheless somewhat or modestly bullish" to put it in "Ben-speak." The Dow is on track with approximately the gains seen in the first half of 2010, technically-speaking. We'll see what July, Q3, and the second half of the year bring...and, of course, summer trading...

BTW, further to my post on Tuesday, June 28, here's how Day 3 ended today on the chartgrid below for YM, ES, NQ & TF...each candle represents 3 days (N.B. Day 1 of the next candle has begun in after-hours trading on YM, ES & NQ). Note that YM has now reached a price level where a potential right shoulder could form on a "loose/upward-sloping" H&S pattern...we'll see whether this holds as resistance or not in the coming days...this should be interesting because ES, NQ & TF have not yet reached this similar level.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Caught in the middle...YM, ES, NQ & TF

After their mid-June dip from the year's highs, the YM, ES, NQ & TF have bounced up to their 50% Fibonacci retracement level (broken blue line), which also happens to co-incide with the "mean" of their regression channel (broken yellow line) as shown on the 4-hour chartgrid below. As well, the YM, ES & NQ are now trading around their falling 200sma (pink), above their 50sma (red), and above their Monthly VWAP (solid blue)...the TF is trading above both moving averages and Monthly VWAP.

We'll see where price goes from here and whether or not this was just a "dead cat bounce."

Overlayed on the Daily charts of the grid below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF are Monthly Volume Profiles...the horizontal red lines represent the POC (point of control) and the horizontal blue lines represent the High and Low Value Levels (VL'S) for each month. The YM, ES & NQ are trading above June's POC, below May's Low VL, and around June's High VL...the TF is displaying more strength relative to this indicator on this bounce and is trading above June's POC, above June's High VL, and above May's Low VL. Price on all four e-minis is currently trading weaker relative to May's POC, but stronger relative to June's POC, thanks to the boost in the markets the past three days....we'll see  how they close out the month tomorrow in this regard.

Overlayed on the Daily chartgrid below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF are Monthly Pivot Points (PP)...the horizontal blue lines represent May's PP's and the horizontal yellow lines represent June's PP's (N.B. June's PP's are still subject to price fluctuation until tomorrow's close). All of them are trading below May's PP and are now above June's PP, thanks to today's continued advance...at the moment they can be considered bearish relative to May's PP, and neutral relative to June's PP...we'll see how they close out the month tomorrow in this regard.

The Financials gained some ground today as seen on the 4-hour chartgrid below of GS, C, XLF & JPM. Any further advance in the markets would need the continued co-operation of this group, imo.

If I didn't know any better, I would have thought that it was an IPO day for V and MA...Pac-Man on "coke extra strength"...

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD has popped above horizontal resistance and is retesting the upper portion of its rising triangle formation in after-hours trading today on this chart below...each candle represents 3 days, and the current candle closes tomorrow.

So, are we ready to coast in "neutral" until the long weekend...or continue this crazy roller coaster ride? Fire up the barbie...we're nearly there!

It's all about perspective...

Two summaries of news articles caught my attention this morning, courtesy of The Washington Post...here they are:

"The Greek parliament on Wednesday approved a controversial package of tax hikes and spending cuts, clearing the way for $17 billion in international emergency loans needed to stave off a possible default. The party-line vote gives Prime Minister George Papandreou a critical victory in the midst of crisis talks with other European leaders and the International Monetary Fund."


"NEW YORK — Bank of America and its Countrywide unit will pay $8.5 billion to settle claims that the lenders sold poor-quality mortgage-backed securities that went sour when the housing market collapsed. The Charlotte, N.C., bank says the settlement with 22 investors is subject to court approval and covers 530 trusts with original principal balance of $424 billion."

Do you realize that BAC could have covered 1/2 of Greece's emergency loans? Perspective...a strange thing indeed...

Where we are now...

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Pac-Attack!...Game On!

I've never seen so many green 60 minute candles in a row recently on YM, ES, NQ & TF! Somebody's been playing Pac-Man (on coke) with the markets today...amazing what exhilaration can be produced over the potential sale of a country's assets...time to dig out those shopping carts 'cause everybody loves a bargain. (I do, however, feel sorry for the citizens in Greece...not a pretty sight what they're going to be up against in the coming months and years.)

And, here's where Day 1 of the 3-Days/candle charts ended today for YM, ES, NQ & TF. My post yesterday refers to potential targets on this timeframe. Looks like NQ & TF, in particular, are on their way to forming a possible right shoulder of a H&S pattern.

I also put up the following chart of EUR/USD for your consideratoin...each candle also represents 3 days and here's where Day 1 of the current candle ended today...price is still in between resistance and support and has yet to break out of the rising triangle. The second chart below shows these levels more clearly on a longer time scale beginning in October 2005.

These candles will close this Thursday...to tie in with the Greek parliament vote. Meanwhile, the waiting game continues...anyone for another round of Pac-Man tomorrow?

Ford vs Microsoft...

Monday, June 27, 2011

YM, ES, NQ & TF...3-Day Candles...Bull Flag on EUR/USD?...

Below is a chargrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF...each candle represents 3 days...the last candle closed today. Day 1 of the next 3-day candle has begun in after-hours trading on YM, ES & NQ.

I've shown a series of horizontal price levels on each chart.:
  • yellow = highest price reached this year
  • white = highest close on the left shoulder of a potential H&S formation for this timeframe
  • green = high of the last green candle formed after the recent decline (and also the prior 3-day candle)
  • red = lowest close and neckline of a potential H&S formation (although the YM formation is a bit sloppy as recent price doesn't touch this level)
Each of these levels represents possible price targets. Of course, the white levels offer the most reward from the current price levels. Whether sufficient support has built around the red level (and above, in YM's case) and whether sufficient buying activity resumes from today's close, particularly above the green level where there is quite a lot of resistance, remains to be seen.

BTW, the moving averages shown are:
white broken = 21ema
red = 50sma
The merging of these two moving averages may signal either further range trading or a significant breakout in one direction or the other in the coming days.

This is a formation that I'll be following with interest every 3 days.

Since it seems that everyone is interested in the Greek debt situation, I'm also showing a 3-days/candle chart of the EUR/USD below. Price closed today (on Day 3 of the last red candle) once again in between recent support and resistance levels and is approaching the apex of a triangle whose formation began in early January of this year. Is this a bull flag in the making? We'll see where price wanders next. BTW, the white descending trendline shown on the chart begins at the highest high reached in July of 2008...if price holds above this level, I would expect price to potentially make a new high sometime this year and possibly reach the highs of November 2009 (approximately 1.514)...based purely on the technicals...what happens politically is another question.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Cliff Hangers...Gold, Silver, Copper & Oil...

Each candle on the chart below of Copper (HG) represents 3 days...the current candle began last Thursday and will complete on Monday. Overlayed on the chart are 2 regression channels...the longest begins at the lows of December 2008 and shortest begins at the June lows of 2010. Price is currently trading below the "mean" of both of these channels and is sitting on the -1 deviation of the shorter channel after breaking and holding below a H&S neckline (approximately 4.255) and the 50sma (red) at the beginning of May of this year.

The next level of support lies at approximately 3.666 which co-incides with the -1 deviation of the longer channel and the -2 deviation of the shorter channel. Conversely, should price break and hold above the neckline resistance, the next resistance level lies at the "mean" of both channels near the prior high of 4.6495. A move in either direction with conviction on this commodity may provide a clue to either continued weakness in the markets, or a resumption of buying.

Below is a 4-hour chartgrid of Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil with regression channel overlays. At the moment in after-hours trading, Gold, Silver and Copper are trading just below major support and Oil is hovering just above recent support.

This coming week should be interesting as we head towards the end of another month, quarter and 1/2 year. FYI, the pivot points in effect until June 30 for each of these 3 timeframes for the TF are as follows:
Month of May PP = 840.70
2nd Quarter PP = 817.50
1st 1/2 Year PP = 720.50
Year PP = 718.60 (for the entire year)


This amazing show was projected on the face of a building in Portugal. The lighting engineers who developed the show and technology are all under age 25...

Fibs again...but with a twist of psychology...

My previous posts on June 23 and 4 referred to the Weekly charts of YM, ES, NQ & TF and the 23.6% Fibonacci level:

As I looked at these charts again this morning, I noticed that this Fib level co-incides roughly with the level that the YM, ES & TF were at just before their very sharp decline in September 2008. It may be necessary for these e-mini futures to retest this level and establish a credible support area from which a meaningful and viable advance can once again resume with market confidence (preferably without government interference). If this level were to be retested, the NQ would have to pull back to its 38.2% Fib level. If such a scenario were to occur, price may bounce around in between the 50sma (red) and 200sma (pink) before re-establishing a new Weekly trend. BTW, the 200sma on the TF presently sits just below the 666 level mentioned in my post below:

Since psychology plays such a big role in trading, this reasoning may make some sense. I realize there are a lot of other factors in day-to-day market psychology, and this is just one potential factor that may (or may not) come into play. I am open to trading market reactions to various events as they unfold...it pays to have one's radar tuned in...and, accordingly, my stop loss is always set as I daytrade...gives me a chance to get out my "Trading for Dummies" handbook to see if I've done the right thing...   :-)

Good night...see you in the funny papers...

Outbid again...

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Catching up with the "Triple O" Gang...

I last posted an update on the travels of the "Triple O" gang on June 5:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/travels-of-triple-o-gang.html

Since then, the gang has continued their short-short walk below the regression channel "mean" on the Weekly chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF as shown below:

Price is attempting to find support at current levels as there may have been some short-covering in play as evidenced on the recent weekly volume spikes.

Since I'm resuming my trading this coming week,  I'll be watching intraday price action, volume and momentum, as well as market internals, once again for further clues on short-term direction...and we'll see where the gang travels from here...

Water...clinging to support like a big fat drip...

Below is a Weekly chart of PHO. Overlayed on the chart is a regression channel which begins where this ETF found support in March of 2009. Price has recently dipped its toe just below support at 18.68 which was established in December 2010 and is attempting to cling to this level like a big fat drip. The 50sma (red) lies just below at 18.26 and is providing support at the moment...this moving average crossed above the 200sma (pink) in mid-April this year. This ETF has basically been trendless and has been consolidating since January of this year. Should price drop further, it could find support at 17.55, which co-incides with the -1 deviation of the rising regression channel, as well as the 200sma (currently at 17.52). Should price rise, it would need to clear above the channel "mean" at 20.00ish and above the next resistance level of 20.61 in order to resume an uptrend.

Of all the water on the planet, only 2.75% of it is from fresh water sources...including 2.05% frozen in glaciers, 0.68% as groundwater, and 0.011% of it as surface water in lakes and rivers:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresh_water

USD/CAD...A Bullish Breakout Above an IH&S Neckline...

Somebody finally lit a flame under USD/CAD...it broke above its IH&S neckline (0.98ish) and closed to the upside on Friday. If this neckline holds as support, the next hurdle is the falling 200sma (pink) as shown on the Daily chart below.

My previous post on USD/CAD on June 16 refers to additional potential upside targets:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/usdcad1015-eh105-ehcall-me-crazy.html

"The recession has hit everybody...McDonald's is selling the 1/4 ouncer."

Bulls need the Financials on board...

In my opinion, a meaningful reversal of the equity markets to the upside would need the Financials on board, as well. As can be seen on the 4-hour chartgrid below of GS, C, XLF & JPM, they are attempting to form support at/near their 5-6 month lows.

Can the VIX's Sustain an Upside Momentum?...

The S&P 500, OEX, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 Vix's closed near their highs on Friday as shown on the Daily chartgrid below of VIX, VXV, VXX, VXO, RVX & VXN. 5 out of 6 are currently above their 50 & 200sma's (red & pink), with the VXX above its 50sma (red). A bullish crossover of the 50sma above the 200sma could signal continued weakness in these indices in the days and weeks to come.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Woody Allen's "Next Life"

The Emerging Markets Index is wavering...

I felt compelled to examine my chart of EEM thanks to the folks at Zero Hedge who posted this article on their site today:   http://www.zerohedge.com/article/call-warning-sign?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

The EEM is wavering. Each candle on the chart below represents 3 days...the current candle began yesterday. Overlayed on the chart are 2 regression channels. It would appear that 41.66ish could represent a "line in the sand" level for this index to turn bearish in a meaningful way...it is roughly the former neckline of a H&S pattern that broke to the downside in August 2008, is approximately the "mean" of a larger regression channel that began in October 2007, and is approximately a -2 deviation of a shorter regression channel that began in May of 2010...in short, a confluence level and possible turning point.

Perhaps Monday's close of the current candle will shed further light as to whether price remains below the -1 deviation of the shorter regression channel and remains weak for the remainder of the week (and possibly year).

Such a bearish scenario would tie in with my last post below.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Xmas 666?...

Further to my post below, I've shown what could happen on the Daily chart of the TF (see below) under an extreme bearish move if a larger Head & Shoulders pattern completes up until the last FOMC meeting this year on December 13...theoretically, price on the TF could descend to around 678...or the infamous 666 level by then. Will those investors who are still long be saved from receiving only a "lump of coal" in their stockings for Xmas?

Which reminds me, I'm wondering how Greece will grow its economy and increase household spending since it will have to tax its citizens heavily to pay for its debt burden...is 1.33 in the cards for the EUR/USD before Xmas?...(My friend mentioned the other the day that her family had Greek takeaway for dinner...this has a new meaning to me now!)

And, conversely, will the US$ see 80.00 before Xmas?...