UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 1 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. Oct. 14 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
The first is the XLF:$SPX ratio, as shown on the 5-Year Daily ratio chart below.
The second is the EUFN:$STOX50 ratio, as shown on the 5-Year Daily ratio chart below.
The last is the GXC:$SSEC ratio, as shown on the 5-Year Daily ratio chart below.
The following graph shows the percentages gained by the 3 Major Indices and 3 ETFs during the past 5 years.
The next graph shows the percentages gained by the 3 Major Indices and 3 ETFs year-to-date.
It's evident that, during the 5-year period, the XLF has outperformed its European and Chinese Financial ETFs, on a percentage-gained basis. The $SPX has, not only outperformed the other 2 Major Indices, but also their 2 ETFs.
On a year-to-date percentage basis, China's ETF has far outpaced the other 2 ETFs. The $SPX has outperformed the other 2 Major Indices, but has lagged behind all 3 ETFs, especially China's ETF.
From this comparison, you can see that world money flow, while slowing in the U.S. Financial ETF this year, has accelerated, relatively-speaking, in the European and (especially) Chinese Financial ETFs.
Inasmuch as price levels on all three ratios are at or near major resistance, we'll see which market traders favour going forward into year end and 2018. These charts are worth monitoring to gauge the strength or weakness of these countries' financials. We may see a rotation of funds out of China's financial markets (and, possibly, out of Europe if full transparency is made available as to their banks' true vulnerability regarding accurate stress tests of capital requirements) and into the U.S., for example, as traders anticipate several interest rate hikes by the Fed (one this December and 2 or 3 next year).
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Presented without comment (link to prior posts)...
* UPDATE November 27...
Year-to-date percentage gains/losses are shown below for major currencies compared with Bitcoin (+918.37%) (the USD is -9.25%, so far, this year)...
...as it makes its way to 10,000 tonight...
* UPDATE November 28...
Moon landing achieved...10,000 tagged tonight, as shown on the Daily chart below...
So, where does it go from here...it's anybody's guess, but major support lies half-way down between 3000 - 5000, as shown on the Monthly chart below.
* UPDATE November 30...
Two consecutive "high-wave" candles have formed during the past two days, as shown on the Daily chart below. Price is down a bit on tonight's (current) candle (as at 11:05 pm ET).
According to its definition by candlestick guru, Steve Nison, one high-wave candle may signal a change in Bitcoin's upward direction...we'll see whether these two play out in such a scenario. I would have preferred if the second one had closed lower than the first one as a, potential, confirmation of trend reversal. The fact that it closed higher, may prove to be a false alert.
One thing's certain...volatility is increasing on a daily basis. Wednesday's trading range was 2,426.10 points as it spiked to an all-time high of 11,427.20, then plunged to a low of 9001.10 (a 5-hour drop of 21.24%).
|Source: Steve Nison of Candlecharts.com|
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
It's in a fairly smooth, strong uptrend, and has been relatively devoid of much volatility, overall, compared with the other sectors, as shown on the 1-Year Daily charts below.
The longer-term Monthly chart below shows that XLK is approaching its all-time high price of 65.44. We'll see whether it continues to push higher to tag or exceed that high, as we approach the Christmas shopping/holiday period and the equity market's year-end.
Results of this week's Black Friday spending may provide clues as to continued strength, or not. I'd also keep an eye on the Consumer Cyclicals (XLY) and Consumer Staples (XLP) sectors to gauge such strength/weakness. In particular, watch for XLP to break and hold above major resistance at 55.00, as well as a bullish (20 & 50-day) moving average crossover.
It remains to be seen whether the anticipated raising of interest rates by the Fed on December 13 has any impact on consumer spending this season, but that may be reflected in those three sectors. They may simply push higher, then see profit-taking occur in January as further economic data becomes available.
Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
Since that date, we've seen the SPX stabilize somewhat, bounce around above 2560, and, finally, reach 2600 today (Tuesday), as shown on the Daily chart below.
After a brief dip below 200, a new "BUY" signal is about to form on the SPX:VIX ratio, as shown on the Daily ratio chart below.
However, it will be important for price on this ratio to reach and hold above the 280 major resistance level, and for the SPX to hold above 2600, in support of a convincing argument that favours the sustained entry of the SPX into a new bull-market phase.
This bird's eye view of the SPX (Monthly chart) shows that it has not faced a major challenge in almost two years.
Price is, however, mashed up against major resistance in the form of a +2 standard deviation of a regression channel. If price does manage to spike through this, the next hurdle is an external Fibonacci retracement level at 2678.
With the VIX down near historical lows (as shown on the Monthly chart below), the current battle unfolding within the Republican party to reform and cut taxes before the end of the year (with zero support from Democrats), and social chaos (sexual assault allegations) exploding across the U.S., we may see volatility increase, correspondingly, in equity markets in the weeks/months ahead...particularly in 2018, with the impending mid-term Congressional elections in November, with possible interest rate hikes by the Fed, and, especially, if tax reform/cuts fail.
Monday, November 20, 2017
The U.S. Department of Justice defines "sexual assault" as follows...
If you're in doubt whether anyone is interested in you, ask her/him...never assume anything, as Charlie Rose is now learning (*UPDATE November 21: he has now been fired by CBS, PBS and Bloomberg TV)...
|Source: Washington Post|
* UPDATE November 21...
It looks like we're headed for social chaos in the weeks/months ahead, as allegations explode across many sectors of society/business/politics (Congressional "shush fund" exposed)...
* UPDATE December 1...
Social upheaval continues as more allegations come forward, investigations are begun, and people are fired from their jobs...
Sunday, November 19, 2017
At the moment, the RSI and MACD indicators are hinting of lower prices ahead for HYG and volumes have spiked over the past few days.
We'll see if volatility ramps up and whether any significant weakness hits both of these in the near term...particularly as U.S. Republicans battle to reform and cut taxes before the end of the year.
In this regard, watch for a drop and hold below major price support (and the 200-day MA) on HYG at 86.00 as a potential harbinger of similar fate for Small Cap stocks.
I'd also watch to see whether price on the RUT:RVX ratio falls below the 85.00-105.00 zone (as it bounces in between), as shown on the Daily ratio chart below. Major price support (and the 200-day MA) lie around 85.00 and much higher volatility, and weakness, wait below that level for the RUT.
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Further to my last post of October 20 and update of November 2, a bearish "Shooting Star" candle formation is in the making on this Monthly chart of BITCOIN...warning signs that we could see a further sell-off to, potentially, the 5000 level, which is the nearest major support level, or even lower to 3000, the next major support level (last hit on September 15).
Volatility is no stranger to this cryptocurrency, as price has plunged nearly 1700 points in the past four trading days, and I doubt that this will change any time soon. Price is currently trading at 6200 as I write this post on November 11 at 1:45 pm ET.
Both the Momentum and Rate-of-change technical indicators on the Daily chart below are hinting of lower prices to come.
As an example of volatility and parabolic moves, look no further than the graph below, which depicts the percentages gained Year-to-date on the SPX, the five FAANG stocks, and BITCOIN. The percentage gained in 2017 in BITCOIN is 2.5 times that of all five FAANG stocks combined.
Sunday, November 05, 2017
Further to my prediction at the end of July that WTI Crude Oil may reach $65.00 if it could reach and hold above the 55.00 level, this update will confirm that such a scenario is still a possibility, even though it's now three months later and we've seen a rise in volatility, as price has bounced around in a $10.00 range since then. As I write this post Sunday evening, it's finally hovering above 55.00.
As can be noted on the Monthly chart below, I'd say that a retest of the bearish (monthly) Moving Average Death Cross around 65.00 is imminent and that momentum currently favours the bulls -- particularly in light of the Saudi purge that is underway, as well as recent military activity that's occurring in that region -- and as illustrated by the recent bullish (daily) Moving Average Golden Cross that has formed on the Daily timeframe (see second chart below).
* UPDATE November 6...
More political and military "activity" underway in the Middle East...
|Source: Bloomberg Politics|