UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Monday, April 27, 2020
It's been six months since China was aware of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. The WHO finally declared the virus outbreak a pandemic on March 11...four months later and well after it had spread rapidly around the world, inasmuch as China did not immediately shut down travel from Wuhan to the rest of the world when it quarantined and cut off travel from that area to the rest of China.
To date, little information has been disseminated from China to the rest of the world surrounding its origins, epidemiology, its symptoms, its effects, how it spread, etc.
Instead, from the dozens of reports emanating from western countries during this time period, it appears that China quickly cornered the markets on N95 masks and scooped up over 2 billion of them from other countries and, subsequently, shipped millions of faulty masks and equipment all around the world, and even sent empty planes back to countries after having agreed to fulfil those orders, when they were urgently needed.
A couple of those reports are shown below...with more live updates here.
Furthermore, China also threatened to announce strategic control measures over medical products and ban exports of its drugs, as I reported in my post of March 9...an excerpt is shown below.
To date, there have been 3,029,452 confirmed cases of COVID-19 world-wide and 210,374 deaths, as shown on the CSSE map below.
A gross lack of transparency is a form of passive aggression and is the equivalent of wilful negligence or destruction.
Does it not seem logical that the longer the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and their leader refuse to share full and truthful data and information, as well as provide access to the lab(s) and records in Wuhan, the more wilful negligence/destruction they will cause world-wide?
At some point, they will be held accountable.
President Trump was asked about restitution from China in today's White House COVID-19 press briefing...his response is here.
In the meantime, which foreign investors are willing to buy into China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) to further prop up the CCP regime?
* UPDATE May 4...
This detailed article provides a summary of information and timelines contained in a 15-page dossier prepared by Western governments on the COVID-19 contagion in China.
Part of its introduction includes the following statement, "The 15-page document, obtained by The Saturday Telegraph, lays the foundation for the case of negligence being mounted against China."
No doubt, there will be more reports in due course, as further investigations dig deeper into all aspects of this tragedy. We'll see if the Chinese leadership is eventually held to account for this global disaster.
* UPDATE May 7...
* UPDATE May 8...
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
As such, each cross represents weekly support and resistance levels. I've chosen to highlight a zone/range taken from the moving average from the week of March 2 (resistance at 3003.54) to the week of April 6 (support at 2727.65). The midway level is 2865.
The Balance of Power (BOP) currently lies with the sellers on this weekly timeframe.
If price rallies and holds above 2865, look for the BOP to break and hold above the zero level, as a potential confirmation that buyers may be serious about taking the SPX to higher levels to, at least, 3003.54, or higher.
As I mentioned in my post of April 15, 60.00 represents a significant support level for the SPX:VIX ratio, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.
At that time, a price of 2750 for the SPX seemed to be tied to the 60.00 level...both critical levels in the battle between bulls and bears, in the near term.
The ratio price has fallen back and closed just above 60.00 on Tuesday. Furthermore, Tuesday's SPX closing price is 2736.56.
A break and hold below 60.00, once again, could see the SPX plunge to a new low...below that made on March 23 (2191.86).
On the latest ratio rally, the RSI broke above its downtrend, the MACD histogram made a new swing high, and the PMO also broke above its downtrend. Any SPX rally should be accompanied by the reclamation of the 50.00 level on the RSI, higher histogram bars on the MACD, and a higher PMO level.
Under such a scenario, should the SPX break and hold above 2865, look for the ratio to break and hold above 80.00. Furthermore, as I mentioned above, watch for the BOP to break and hold above the zero level, as a potential confirmation that buyers may be serious about taking the SPX to higher levels to, at least, 3003.54, or higher.
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Hope to see you again next year! 😊
And, I'd like to thank the hosts of the following websites who kindly publish my articles...
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
As I mentioned in my post of March 12, 2750 was an important level for the SPX. It was where its counterpart, the S&P E-mini Futures Index broke below the bottom of a long-term uptrending Andrew's Pitchfork channel (taken from the 2009 low to 2020's high) and was trading at 2441.00 that day. Such a technical break usually signals that a new bearish trend would form. On March 23, the SPX hit a new low of 2191.86 and reversed the next day.
The SPX closed back above 2750 on April 9 and remains above as of Tuesday's close at 2846.06.
For short-term clues on the where the SPX may be headed, the important support and resistance levels are identified on the SPX:VIX ratio. As I mentioned above, if this ratio can reclaim the 80.00 level, its next target would be 100.00...and we'd see the SPX continue to rally under this scenario.
Conversely, should the SPX:VIX ratio break and hold below 60.00 once again, then we'll see the SPX plunge below 2750 and possibly make a new low...below that made on March 23.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Sunday, April 05, 2020
The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.
You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.
As of Friday's close, it's above the PP of the August 2017 candle and below all subsequent ones. A great deal of price resistance lies above, as well as an unfilled gap for April's candle.
I'm not confident that we'll see any convincing and sustainable strength arise anytime soon...due to the global crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic.
However, volatility has abated somewhat recently, as depicted on the following SPX:VIX daily ratio chart.
All three RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators are rising, but price is still below 60.00...a major price resistance level that must be recaptured and held if the SPX is going to have any chance of a recovery soon.
Otherwise, failure to do so, will likely mean lower prices in the coming days/weeks for the SPX, inasmuch as such high volatility levels are not the norm and are usually only sustained during periods of extreme economic and financial instability.
In any event, we'll likely see wild volatile swings in both directions until such time as the price on this ratio returns to, at least, the 200 level.
Friday, April 03, 2020
What kind of person refuses to help his neighbour, especially when both neighbours depend upon each other for essential survival?
President Trump became that kind of person when he issued this edict to 3M yesterday to stop sending essential protective medical gear to Canada for use in fighting the global Covid-19 pandemic. I believe he is applying this order (under his invocation of the provisions of the Defense Production Act) to all U.S. companies and all medical equipment, not just to 3M and not just masks. (I cried when I saw the headlines this morning when I got up...as a Canadian who is immunocompromised and currently battling a lung infection due to COPD-related issues, this hit me especially hard.)
Canada, Mexico and the U.S. spent months renegotiating the previous NAFTA agreement, and eventually all leaders and governments signed the new USMCA agreement relating to the tri-lateral trade of goods and services...all at the insistence of Mr. Trump, who was so anxious to strike a new trade deal. Canada negotiated in good faith on the assumption that, once signed, it would be implemented.
With the onslaught of the global Covid-19 pandemic, the three leaders agreed to continue to allow the free flow of essential goods and services among the three countries and across their respective borders, while shutting down all non-essential travel to try and contain the spread of the virus.
The President is deliberately endangering the lives of Canadian health care workers and Canadians by breaking this essential flow of medical goods. The ramifications of this could, unintentionally, boomerang back onto the U.S. due to, first, the loss of production of essential reciprocal goods and services, and, then, once the pandemic has abated somewhat, other Canadian goods and services upon which Americans rely for their day to day lives, because of the loss of Canadian lives in those important fields. American lives could, ultimately, also be lost...he has not thought this through very well, as the consequences could be exponentially multiplied and severe.
Mr. Trump would not only have the blood of Canadians on his hands, but Americans, as well. There is a special place in hell for bullies in leadership roles, and he leads the pack with regard to this order. He deserves no respect, inasmuch as he does not even respect his own people, let alone his neighbours. Nor does he act in good faith when negotiating trade deals. He proved that, along with his gross incompetence, yesterday.
The President has proven that the U.S. cannot be trusted as a reliable trading partner for essential services and supplies during this medical crisis. Canada will have no alternative but to look to other nations to establish a reliable flow of these essential items...but such help will likely be too late, if at all, and many lives will be lost in the meantime.
P.S. Finally, I mean no disrespect to my American "cousins" by my rantings...they, in no way, reflect how I feel about you and for the gratitude that I have for all that our two countries have shared over many years.
I was trying to highlight the importance of ensuring that all these essential goods and services continue to flow between our countries, especially during this crisis, since they and their ingredients are so intertwined...e.g., 1000s of Canada's nurses travel back and forth across the border into the U.S. every day to help out in the U.S. health care system and hospitals. Also, Canada supplies the materials needed (from our many pulp and paper mills) to make the N95 masks, and we supply gloves and test kits.
If our people die because Mr. Trump refuses to send us any masks that are superfluous to their needs, then we won't be able to continue with our support because we won't have the manpower...he really hasn't thought this through.
Furthermore, if he continues to turn his back on Canada and other countries that need help in this urgent crisis, then their leaders will have no choice but to look to source their medical equipment from another supplier(s)...and China is just sitting there waiting with open arms, ready to take America's place, not only in this instance, but in meeting their future needs (by supplying other goods and services beyond what they currently provide), as well.
The President really hasn't thought this through, or looked at the longer-term consequences that isolating his country from the rest of the world would bring...but, no doubt, President Xi has and has likely prepared many plans for many scenarios for many months/years to come. And, I wouldn't underestimate Mr. Xi's resolve or laser focus on actualizing his vision in due course.
I REPEAT...President Trump really hasn't thought things through...not only with respect to this pandemic, but to his entire "America First" agenda.
There has to be a balance in all things, lest total chaos ensue for many years to come...resulting in a gradual shift of power from the U.S. to China.
In the meantime, may everyone be safe and stay healthy during this crisis and beyond.
* UPDATE April 6...
Thank you 3M and President Trump!...😊
I hope such reciprocal trading can continue between neighbours during the course of this crisis...and in the long run...there is honour in so doing.
|N.B. Read this CityNews article at this link|