UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Sunday, July 10, 2016
They show the strength/weakness of the:
- XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) compared to $SPX
- EUFN (European Financials ETF) compared to $STOX50
- GXC (Chinese Financials ETF) compared to $SSEC
Saturday, July 09, 2016
However, the closer we get to the U.S. Presidential election in November, we may see upward momentum begin to flatten out.
The World Market Index will, however, need to break through and hold above the 1600 major support/resistance level, once and for all (soon). If so, we could see such a breakout rally occur in the SPX -- possibly in a manner as I described in my post of July 1st.
Otherwise, if this index weakens, with sustained force, we may not see sufficient appetite for equity risk in the U.S. markets to push and sustain them to new heights.
Each candle on the ratio chart below of the SPX:VIX represents one year. (My latest post referencing this ratio, complete with updates, can be read here.) So far, the body of this year's candle is forming a bullish engulfing candle of the entire 2013, 2014 and 2015 candle bodies. As well, price closed above a major bull/bear line-in-the-sand resistance level of 150, once again, on Friday.
If we see price on this ratio hold above 150, we'll likely see the above scenario play out for U.S. equities. And, currently, momentum is favouring the bulls (albeit cautiously), as shown at this link to a Year-to-date graph showing gains/losses for the 9 Major U.S. Sectors. I'd keep a close eye on the Financials ETF to see if they suddenly weaken relative to the others, especially if banks in Europe begin to fail. If so, I believe this would negatively impact the rest of the U.S. markets.
Monday, July 04, 2016
Friday, July 01, 2016
Further to my post of June 27th, and, as shown on the following updated 20-Year Quarterly chart of the SPX, the 2016 Q2 candle closed today at a higher level than -- on what was a previously potential bearish hanging man -- the Q1 candle. This bearish reversal warning was not confirmed.
Instead, what we're left with, at the moment, is a wide-range high-base consolidation for the past 6 quarters, with price now near all-time highs.
As shown on the following 20-Year Monthly chart of the SPX, a solid breakout and hold to the upside of this large range could produce a rally to a confluence of the top of a long-term channel and a 200% Fibonacci Extension level of 2280 (yellow) by roughly October of this year, and, eventually, another confluence of the channel top and a 200% External Fibonacci level of 2485 (blue) by approximately December 2017.
That's a very bullish scenario and one that may take quite a bit longer to play out, with, possibly, a lot more volatility sprinkled into the mix than what I've shown...anything can happen between now and then, but the potential is there, nonetheless.