The US 10-year treasury yield (US10YT) has now reached a fairly substantial decades-long resistance level, as shown on the monthly chart below.
If it holds above today's break of 4.70, we could see a run towards 6.00, or higher...possibly depending on how the US war against Iran proceeds in the next few weeks/months.
* See UPDATES below...
Either President Trump is very naive about 'fabricated reports' from the Middle East regarding Iran's so-called willingness to make a deal with the US, or he is simply playing games and stalling the inevitable scenario...further military action to finish off the Iranian regime's reign of terror against its citizens and other countries in the Middle East and around the world.
I suspect he will have to make a decision one way or another very soon. People are growing weary of all the shenanigans (BS) on both sides. All talk and no action won't be tolerated by the price-gouged (global) public much longer.
Trump can either set the terms in the Free-World's favour and act on them, or Iran will do it their way.
He has a choice...either make it or surrender it.
By the way, Iran needs to 'man up' and negotiate directly (face to face) with US representatives if they're serious about striking a deal with them...not through a third party, from which unreliable reports (lies) emanate.
Failure to do so will never produce a deal...only a prolonged and destructive war.
UPDATE:
Furthermore, a 60-day tentative extension of a ceasefire is NOT a bona fide permanent peace agreement...just more delay and uncertainty on the issue of removing the enriched uranium from Iran and the permanent dismantling of their nuclear program, which remains a major global threat to international security.
Looks like President Trump has lost sight of that issue (one of his major goals) and is surrendering that matter to Iran by allegedly agreeing to watered-down piecemeal arrangements...which may include the early release of some seized Iranian funds in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
That would be a loss for the US and a win for Iran, because it was already open before the war and billions of dollars were frozen decades before this current conflict under extensive US sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Plus, Iran could then use the monies to buy/build more drones and missiles to replenish their depleted stockpiles...rendering Trump's bombings, to date, all for naught...while still in possession of their enriched nuclear materials.
Both the US and Iran need to 'man up' and negotiate face to face to settle all issues at once, rather than through a third party...and cut the drip, drip BS...people are fed up with it all!
Incidentally, other Western world countries need to 'man up' and offer support to the US to ensure that it is successful in these negotiations, inasmuch as their prior involvement in the now-defunct JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) provided significant mutual reinforcements and assistance to each other in enforcing a unified policy to constrain Iran's nuclear program.
So far, they've taken a hands-off approach to this situation.
Since it was in their interest then, why wouldn't it be now?
UPDATE:
From this latest report, it looks like the only thing that has been accomplished by the ceasefire, so far, has been the ability of Iran to restore and reopen 20 airports that were damaged in this war.
Plus, Iran is still in possession of its enriched nuclear materials and nuclear facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
So, where's the upside to the US in this ceasefire? 🤔
HINT...
A "creative visionary" would find a way to streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts of this conflict (including goals and impediments), and accelerate the process of achieving global economic, financial and military security/stability...in part, by turning the impediments into common goals for all parties.
And, a "creative opportunist" would find a way to capitalize on this process.
UPDATE:
So far, I haven't seen any evidence of either party possessing such creative thinking and negotiating abilities in order to reach and sign a final agreement that contains common goals, as backed up here and here.
Frankly, I don't believe that terrorists have the capacity or desire to seek any common goals with the Western world and the Middle East...as repeatedly demonstrated by Iran's combative rhetoric and actions for the past 46 years under the dictatorship of the Ayatollah and his henchmen, while recurrently shouting, "Death to Israel" and "Death to America" since then.
I predict that the situation will get much worse right through the midterm elections in November, especially as low and middle-income Americans (living paycheque to paycheque) continue to suffer economically and will likely voice their concerns in the way they vote.
Billionaires, such as the President, and long-term investors/market makers may not care how long this drags out, or be worried about the midterm elections, but average Americans do/are.
And, who has the appetite to participate in Trump's 250th July 4th celebrations under these uncertain and unappealing conditions? 👀
UPDATE:
WTF has Trump been smoking!
He's getting more unbelievable by the day with his ridiculous vacillatory, contradictory, hyped-up comments.
His 'so-called' negotiating tactics are not clever...just plain stupid, clueless, overblown, bizarre and irritating.
Plus, his tone towards Iran seems to have softened since his visit with President Xi in China in mid-May...case in point. Coincidence?
It's becoming clearer that a decent deal for the US regarding Iran will not be forthcoming.
PERIOD!
UPDATE:
An alleged Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, as described in this article, is not the same as a FINAL deal.
The so-called negotiations of items and terms outlined in an MoU (and, by extension, the conflict) will drag on forever...case in point here and here (39 'deals' announced by DJT, so far 🫤).
Even Europe is forecasting further uncertainty ahead, as the ECB has just raised interest rates by 0.25% due to rising inflation.
Buckle up!
P.S. As of June 19th, a signed copy of the MoU containing the entire text has NOT been released to the public on the White House website...(allegedly signed by the Presidents of the US and Iran this week).
What's the big secret? 🤔
In any event, I repeat..."It's becoming clearer that a decent deal for the US regarding Iran will not be forthcoming."
PERIOD!
P.P.S. From this report, it appears that President Trump underestimated Iran's response in this war, which has proven to be very costly (in the US and globally) in many ways...monetarily, economically, politically, militarily, and strategically.
Their leaders are also masters at deceit, delay, obfuscation and manipulation tactics, as has been demonstrated for decades.
So, who is the 'winner' in this war? 👀
UPDATE:
As predicted, it looks as though no progress has been made since the signing of the MoU.
Rather, things are unraveling between Iran and the US, as per the latest reports here, here...and here.
So, back to 'square one.'
By the way, what's the point of negotiating when neither party has a common goal (terrorism/war versus peace in the Middle East) upon which a deal can ever be made? 🤔
UPDATE:
Not unexpected, the US war against Iran has resumed, as noted in the article below.
So, we'll see what happens...
UPDATE:
Will these intensified US military actions finally "streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts of this conflict (including goals and impediments), and accelerate the process of achieving global economic, financial and military security/stability...in part, by turning the impediments into common goals for all parties?"
Translation: Will Iran capitulate?
We'll see...
~~~~~~~
MEANWHILE:
Meanwhile, back in the USA, the Democrat party (whose campaign funds on hand are at an extreme low as donors' contributions have dried up) is rapidly being infiltrated and primaried by members of the extreme far-left DSA (running for Mayors, Governors, and seats in State and Federal Houses & Senates), whose socialist/communist agenda would destroy American democracy/federalism, as governed by its Constitution.
So far, I haven't heard any pushback or rejection of their ideas/ideology from senior members and leaders of the Democrat party on this destructive movement...destructive to National security and the survival of the country.
So, America's biggest threat may not be from another country, such as Iran, but from nefarious forces working within the Democrat party. 👀
PERIOD!
The DSA's insane radical platform, seen below, is an extension of, and more extreme than, far-left Democrats' failed Green New Deal and ESG/DEI policies, as well as former President Joe Biden's (D) inflationary, et al, disastrous policies...who could forget those four years when inflation increased from 1.4% when he took office in January 2021 (following Trump's first term as President) to 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022 (cumulative inflation increased by over 20% across his for four-year term)!
This detailed analysis of their platform is enlightening, to say the least!
PLUS, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently warned 60 global nations against the resurgence and rising threat of far-left international political terrorism, as noted below.
Also, Secretary Rubio issued this report which alleges Cuba's decades-long communist influence/interference in America.
Another case in point is this article regarding mass migration, clashing social values and media bias in the UK.
And, this latest case involves a mass invasion of 60,000 mostly military-aged men in 24 hours from Morocco into a segment of Spain...bringing destruction and terrorism to the community and its residents. Plus, this article provides an update on the aftermath of this invasion, as well as some EU leaders' responses/concerns ('too little too late' as it pertains to numerous problems already caused by their permissive policies, which have allowed unchecked mass migration into Europe over the past few years)...it also warns that another potential invasion may be imminent.
So, this threat to "destabilize Western civilization" is worldwide and needs to be dealt with ASAP.
~~~~~~~
UPDATE:
The US war in Iran is escalating, once more, as noted in this report.
If Israel joins this next phase, and depending on its scale, intensity and consequences, we'll see how quickly (or not) Iran and any other incidental/associate targets finally capitulate and stop their military attacks in the region.
No doubt, we'll see some wild fluctuations in the markets over the next while...e.g., WTI/Brent Crude Oil and US10YT.
Stay tuned...
UPDATE:
Reports of Iran's surprising rapid rebuilding efforts, following the initial bouts of 20,000 bombings by the US and Israel (known as Operation Epic Fury), are leaking out now, as described in this article.
The question is, does the US have any idea, and any control over, what it will take for Iran to capitulate? 🤔
We'll see...
UPDATE:
If this report is accurate, I'd say that Trump's recent blustery and bravado threats to Iran were simply idle off-the-cuff comments and not backed up by any imminent massive military actions.
After all these months, it's unclear if, as Commander-in-Chief, he knows what he's doing from one day to the next...or how to even create and follow a 'covert' comprehensive 'flexible' military strategic matrix (comprised of strategic, operational and tactical elements) to get to his so-called end game...one that's operationally capable of destroying/imploding Iran's Military Mosaic Warfare/Mosaic Defense framework from within, possibly via a series of fatal internal miscalculations.
Rather, it appears that he may simply be influenced by day-to-day schizophrenic fluctuating prices of WTI/Brent Crude Oil and, possibly, the US 10-year treasury yield, so his ever-changing comments end up sounding schizophrenic, as well.
He'd be far better off if he focused on the task at hand and just kept quiet...why alert your enemy to any of your plans and showcase your weaknesses in the process?
Isn't that what any smart military tactician/strategist/leader would do...keep the element of surprise in their back pocket?
Besides, I don't believe that Iran's terrorist regime [comprised of the new Supreme Leader (who has yet to surface in public or is even alive), the President, the leaders of its 31 provinces, and its IRGC] is ready to negotiate in good faith, or ever will be, for all the reasons I've already outlined above.
PERIOD!
UPDATE:
This latest nonsensical post from DJT just proves my point! 🤔
Just how many victories is he going to give Iran?
Because every time they've reached a so-called agreement/deal/MoU (ones that President Trump has outsourced to another country to broker with Iran...WHY, by the way?), Iran has broken it and scored another victory against the USA, which has been easy to do multiple times, to date, under their military Mosaic framework.
So far, Trump has ZERO victories...not something to be proud of:By the way, who does he think he's making a deal with this time...which tentacle of their terrorist regime? And which tentacle will then break it?
They've got him going in circles (Iran and those foreign countries brokering the agreements) and it seems he's a willing participant (easy target) in their stupid repetitive, dragged-out game.
So, yes, 'Groundhog Day' is an apt title for this charade.
How gullible can you get!
P.S. So this is the alleged arm-twister.
If true, what's really in it for them to keep delaying and interfering with a victory for President Trump? 🤔
And, surely, after all these months, he must have all the necessary information from his advisors to satisfactorily answer or allay any of their questions and objections.
If not, why not?
Furthermore, as long as Iran refuses to negotiate directly with the American administration, you can be sure that they are not serious about making a deal...ever.
The longer he waits to successfully finish all of his objectives once and for all, the more likely it is that he will be hamstrung (or worse) by his own Congress, if it flips from Republican majority to Democrat in the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm November elections.
In that case, no victory would ever be forthcoming for him...but, more importantly, for the USA. Plus his legacy will be in tatters.
So, why not complete the mission and ride a victory into the midterms to try and keep Republican control of Congress, while securing peace in the Middle East, as well.
America, its National security, its democracy and values, and, by extension, the rest of the Western world, are teetering on the edge of being extinguished by the rise of socialism/communism/terrorism...from forces within, as well as from unresolved threats in the Middle East.
FACT! 🫤
So, buckle up!
UPDATE:
What a joke!
It now seems that President Trump halted his threatened mega attack to give Iran yet another victory in this war!
The following report explains this latest farce, which gives Iran greater control over the Strait of Hormuz than it ever had before!
This arrangement makes Trump look weak, untrustworthy, unreliable and cowardly...and, by extension, the USA...unworthy of a leadership role in America and around the world.
UNBELIEVABLE!
WARNING: So, with this scenario developing, along with the rise of the DSA wing of the Democrat party and their socialist/communist platform in the US, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney needs to sit up and take note.
It's becoming clearer that America is no longer the reliable trading and national security partner that it used to be...especially when you include Trump's unfair punitive tariffs on Canadian goods into this mixture.
As such, the PM will need to beef up Canada's military and strengthen its trading practices and ties internally and internationally...something, I believe that he recognized a while ago and began so doing.
Just as well, as these latest developments warrant haste without hesitancy! 👀
The following visual shows the levels of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve from 1983 to 2025.
This reserve has been much higher for most of those years before it was drastically drained during the Biden administration.
So, as at the end of 2025, it hadn't been topped up very much, should it need to be tapped during the present conflict/war between Israel/US and Iran to, potentially, reduce the price of oil and gasoline for American consumers.
This post is a continuation of the story I've laid out over multiple articles covering President Joe Biden during his first (and only) four-year term in office...the latest post in that six-part series can be read here...and a reminder post here.
In this new post, the script now changes with the main character shifting from Joe Biden to VP Kamala Harris.
Biden was unceremoniously dumped by the leaders of his party (Nancy Pelosi and former President Obama), and Democrats simply 'annointed' Harris as their new 2024 nominee for Presidential candidate in the upcoming November election without a single primary voter casting a vote for her, unlike 14,500,000 Americans who voted for Biden during the primaries (whose votes were, effectively, ignored and disgarded)...DEMOCRATS' TWISTED VERSION OF DEMOCRACY! 🤔
How is this even legal/constitutional?
Today Ms. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) (another 'old white guy') as her running mate for VP.
Both Harris and Walz are described as extreme, radical, far-left socialist Democrats (and the "most-left wing ticket in U.S. history," as per Florida Governor Ron Desantis), who have to pay influencers and celebrities to promote them on-line or headline their rallies, as outlined in the following articles.
Ms. Harris is also willing to use media deception to win...
Who is Tim Walz? Check out these eye-openers...and more here...
Another point of view on Tim Walz' lies about his military record for personal gain, and the extreme far-left political policies and actions that he's taken over many years, suggests that he is "unqualified for leadership at any level" and is "unfit for political office"...
Even Tim Walz' eldest brother had, to put it politely, unflattering things to say about him and does not support his political policies...
So, as a warning, it's worth repeating my above reminder, as follows...
N.B. Parts I, II, III, IV and V regarding President Joe Biden's massive policy blunders and scandals are described in detail here, here, here, here and here, respectively, for your edification.
Due to the extensive length of the prior articles, I've had to break them up into parts. Part VI begins, as follows, with the latest scandal, Biden's failing mental and physical acuity/health.
After watching the Presidential debate on TV last night between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, I only have seven words:
It's over, Joe...it's time to go!
For a multitude of supporting reasons, please refer to the following article, as well as my above-referenced articles, all of which factor into my summation.
We'll see what happens between now and the upcoming Presidential election on November 5.
HOWEVER, a word of warning...any replacement (including his VP Kamala Harris, who is even less popular with voters and a more extreme, radical far-left socialist than Biden...check out this article to prove my point) will still bring Joe's failed socialistic policies/agenda of:
In other words, your quality of life will continue to deteriorate under the rule of Democrats, regardless of who is the leader.
More articles in support of my position are as follows...
* UPDATE July 3...
As the 'dementia-gate' plot thickens, it's only a matter of time...the question is, will President Biden resign (or be forced to) before his first term is up?
The second question is, why is his convicted-felon and crack-addict son, Hunter Biden, sitting in on meetings and what security clearances does he have? 🤔
Can you imagine what expletives the media pundits and politicians (of both parties) would be screaming if former President Trump had said this?...
* UPDATE July 6...
OMG!!! 😮...
And...more shocking revelations about and examples of Joe Biden's rapidly-declining mental and physical health are detailed here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here (by the way, notice from references in these articles how the Democrat party has become the party of "mega-donor elites"...NOT the party of the "little guy" or the "middle and working class").
He's, literally, falling apart before everyone's eyes.
I do not think he will be able to serve out his term until January 20, 2025 and am wondering when he will either resign or be forced out by his cabinet members and VP via the implementation of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States...as is more thorougly argued in this article.
* UPDATE July 9...
Now that all the gaslighting has been exposed, what's next for Biden's political future, as well as the national security of America?
People are, rightly, angry and completely disillusioned with the deception of Democrats and the mainstream media over the past four years.
The November election results will be "interesting," but will they be honest and believable?
* UPDATE July 13...
Joe Biden's and Democrats' "Big Green Grift" will become extinct in the next several years, as it will be inadequate to generate the electical capacity needed to power AI data centers in the U.S. (which will require "a lot of fossil fuels and a lot of nuclear").
This confirms that the President and his minions, who've been funding and implementing mandating their restrictive and socialistic policies, are sorely lacking in innovative forward-thinking capabilities.
* UPDATE July 17...
President Biden's circle of support keeps shrinking each day...as donors and voters gravitate toward former President Trump and his 20-point platform/agenda (in furtherance of his accomplishments achieved during his 2017-2021 presidency) to unite and move the country forward to improve Americans' lives, which have been destroyed by Biden's woke (extreme far-left socialist) policies/mandates/agenda...
Joe Biden...the "placeholder President"...😏
* UPDATE July 19...
Democrats and some of their media pundits have been arguing that it would be bad for Joe Biden's "legacy" if he stayed in the presidential election race and lost to Donald Trump...and have been using it as a lame excuse to push the idea that another Democrat candidate should replace Biden before or at the upcoming August DNC convention.
But, think about this...somebody else's "legacy" and political future (for 2028 and beyond) could also be in jeopardy if they ran and lost to Trump.
By the way, which Democrat politician is going to be dumb enough to risk their current reputation, as well as their potential for future advancement in the coming years, if he/she replaced Biden as the Democrat presidential candidate...only to lose to Trump? 🤔
HR Clinton...again? I don't think so.
VP Kamala Harris...a possible scapegoat and middle finger by Joe Biden to the Democrat elites who are forcing him to step down? Under that scenario, SHE RISKS HER reputation and legacy, and JOE DOES NOT. So, KARMA works in mysterious ways. 😏
Thus, their "legacy" argument is without merit and lacks authenticity.
I think they're stuck with Joe Biden for 2024...unless something big changes that scenario.
N.B. If Biden does withdraw his candidacy, he should also immediately resign as President...is he's unfit to run, he's unfit to serve.
* UPDATE July 20...
Democrats' 'political coup' against Joe Biden appears to be picking up the pace.
So much for their nauseating and hate-filled "anti-democracy" theme that they've been hypocritically spewing non-stop against Donald Trump during this election cycle...
The Biden/Harris administration's near-destruction of America and gaslighting to Americans have ruined it for everybody...
~~~~~~~
This debate was only the latest in a series of awful appearances (that were accurately covered by a very few media outlets, such as Fox News and ZeroHedge) that have exposed his mental and physical incompetence and incapacity to govern as President during the past three and a half years.
Who is the puppeteer President??? 🤔
~~~~~~~
N.B. Remember...a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for VP Kamala Harris, inasmuch as she would automatically become President if anything were to happen to Biden, if he is elected to serve a second term.
* UPDATE July 21...
Finally, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race...and has endorsed VP Kamala Harris, an extreme, radical far-left socialist and Joe's possible 'scapegoat' (see my explanation of this label in my above UPDATE of July 19), to run for President.
BUT, former President Obama has NOT endorsed her. Instead, he's supporting some kind of mini-primary to allow for other potential Democrats candidates to throw their hat into the ring and be voted on, with one being elected, at the upcoming DNC convention in August by 3,936 Democrat delegates who represent the millions of primary voters who already voted for Biden as their nominee. Whether this is even legal or constitutional remains to be answered.
Talk about an undemocratic election process for all 14,500,000 primary voters who thought they were voting for Joe Biden! 🤔
So, as of now, Americans don't know who former President Donald Trump (R) will face as his opponent in the November election.
As an aside, if Joe Biden is unfit to run for President, he's unfit to serve as President until January 20, 2021...he's now facing numerous calls to resign.
What a chaotic mess! Can anything more weird happen before the election? 👀
* UPDATE July 23...
USSS Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned today, following her tight-lipped appearance before the House Oversight Committee yesterday, where she received a bi-partisan tongue lashing and calls for her resignation.
So, who will replace her and how long will it take to get transparent and full answers from multiple investigations into the assassination attempt against former President Trump?
* UPDATE July 24...
Exactly who is VP Kamala Harris and what are her extreme, radical far-left socialist policies?
Read on for a shocking eye-opener...
Even the Black Lives Matter organization called out Democrat delegates as the "party of hypocrites" for side-stepping a proper primary process for voters to vote for and nominate their presidential candidate, but who, instead, simply annointed her as their chosen one...
And, now this regarding her ancestry...
It seems that all is not well in 'Democrat world.' 👀
* UPDATE July 28...
And, more revealed on this Fox News video...
Woops! Looks like VP Harris thinks 18-24 year-olds are "stupid"...so much for their vote for her in November! 🤔
* UPDATE August 1...
More dangerous weakness is on frightening display from the Biden/Harris administration when it comes to protecting national security from foreign terrorists.
A major terrorist attack(s) within the U.S. is/are only a matter of time.
BEWARE during voting season.
Welcome to Democrats' and their media pundits' "bait-and-switch con" of the alleged 'new-and-improved Kamala Harris.'
So far, she, herself, has NOT articulated directly to the public and to voters exactly what her policies will be. In fact, her so-called 'flips' on her extreme far-left past policies are only being conveyed by 'anonymous sources' to the media.
BEWARE and do your own research on Ms. Harris and what she represents and clearly presents/promises BEFORE voting.
* UPDATE August 4...
P.S. For what it's worth, Congress finished their impeachment investigation of President Biden and announced in their 291-page report that he engaged in impeachable conduct in multiple ways, as described in the following article.
So, I guess that's that, then...he will exit his four years in office, dragging this tarnished legacy with him.
P.S. Joe Biden can add this pardon to his tarnished legacy...after repeatedly lying for years to the American public that he would NOT pardon his son, Hunter...
N.B. My continuation of updates regarding VP Kamala Harris can be found here.
