UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Thursday, December 27, 2018
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
Monday, December 24, 2018
Since September 21, the SPX closed Monday (Christmas Eve) 589.81 points lower at 2351.10...a loss of 73.6% of those Nov/16 to Sept/18 points gained...and is now up by only 9.89% since November 8, 2016, as shown on the following percentage-gained graph.
The SPX is teetering on the edge of a bear market, as it is now -19.78% from its September high this year.
If we get a couple more days like Monday's, the SPX could easily reach its first support level of 2250 before the end of the year, as shown on the following monthly chart, and as I described in my post of December 22. Major support sits lower at 2000.
U.S. equity market gains made since Nov/16 are already being cannibalized by Washington gridlock and erratic Trump administration decisions and policies, as I warned in last month's post of November 9. Whether that is about to abate anytime soon is anyone's guess!
|SPX: Each candle represents a period of one year|
|SPX:VIX Ratio: Each candle represents a period of one year|
Sunday, December 23, 2018
Saturday, December 22, 2018
Since then, and as of Friday's close, the SPX has plummeted and it came within eight points of reaching its first major support level of 2400, as I described in my post of December 17.
The input value for each of the three technical indicators is shown as 'one' to illustrate the extreme downside momentum, rate-of-change, and average true range experienced, so far, this month. These either exceed or almost match the levels experienced during the 2008/09 financial crisis.
Whether we see a short-term bounce next week to close out the year is anyone's guess.
However, the RSI, MACD and PMO divergences (shown on the daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio) compared to the ratio price is hinting that we may either see a bounce in the SPX or some stabilization soon.
If we see the SPX continue to plunge and these divergences wiped out, we may just see the SPX reach its next major support level of 2250, or lower to 2000, as described in my last post. A drop and hold of the ratio below 80 could hold the key to such a scenario being achieved...in short order.
Monday, December 17, 2018
At the time of today's analysis and post (December 17), you will see from the first percentages gained/lost graph that 7 of the 9 Major U.S. Indices are in negative territory year-to-date.
The second percentages gained/lost graph shows that 8 of the 9 Major Indices are in correction territory from September 21. In fact, the Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports are fast approaching a 20% bear market territory.
The following graph shows the percentages of stocks in the U.S. Major Sectors and Major Indices above their respective moving averages.
The only ones with 50% or more of their stocks above their 200-day moving averages are the S&P 500 Real Estate, S&P 500 Utilities, and Dow Utilities.
The one to note is the S&P 500 Real Estate Sector, which has precisely 50%. If we see further weakness in this sector sending it below that level, I've no doubt that we'll see broad weakness continue across all markets.
Sunday, December 09, 2018
Price on the SPX is currently hovering above 2600, as shown on the following monthly chart.
It's clearly a major inflection point for a couple of reasons...namely, it's a major price support level, and it's right along the upper edge (+1 standard deviation level) of a long-term regression channel from the lows of 2009.
As I stated in the above-mentioned post, the SPX is now in danger of dropping to its next major support level around 2400, as more fully illustrated in my post of August 6.
In fact, 2400 is...
- slightly below a confluence of two external Fibonacci retracement levels around 2473 and 2485
- just above the lower monthly Bollinger Band at 2372
- above a convergence of a -1 standard deviation level of the regression channel with a 161.8% external Fib level at 2347, and the 50-monthly moving average at 2332
Extreme weakness on accelerating downside momentum may just see price reach 2400, or lower, before, possibly, stabilizing.
Furthermore, price on the SPX:VIX ratio is well below the Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level and is approaching the 100 level, which represents an extremely volatile zone, as shown on the following monthly ratio chart.
The momentum indicator closed at its lowest historic reading on this timeframe last Friday, confirming that extreme volatility is already present in this ratio.
A drop and hold below the 100 level on the SPX:VIX ratio, together with a drop and hold below 2600 on the SPX could very well see the SPX drop to somewhere around 2400 in short order.
Sunday, December 02, 2018
Both the YM and ES are above the 50 MA (pink) and 200 MA (yellow). Both the NQ and RTY are trading under the bearish influence of a moving average Death Cross formation. The NQ is slightly above its 50 MA, but slightly below the 200 MA, whereas the RTY is below both of those.
On a short-term basis, I'll be looking for price on all four E-minis to hold above, firstly the moving average trio and, secondly, their 50 MA to maintain a bullish bias, whereby we may, potentially, see them retest their highs of this year or even set new records before year end (the RTY will have to first break above its 50 MA).
We'll need to see it hold above 150 to corroborate a bullish bias and an advancement on the ES, as mentioned above.
Failure of the 4 E-minis and the SPX:VIX ratio to hold above these moving averages and price level, respectively, could see the SPX drop to 2400, as I recently described here.