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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Fri. June 25 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core PCE Price Index Data
* Fri. July 2 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. July 7 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Tues. July 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. July 14 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. July 16 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. July 28 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Sunday, June 20, 2021

PRICE ALERT: SPX:VIX Ratio

Further to my post of June 11, the SPX:VIX ratio has drop to just above the 200 level...a major resistance/support level, as shown on the daily ratio chart below.

This follows a recent new swing high in price to just above 250. Ratio price has failed, repeatedly, to remain above 250 over the years.

All three technical indicators, RSI, MACD and PMO, formed divergences on this latest price swing high, hinting at ensuing price weakness. After making a new all-time high of 4257.16 on June 15, the SPX dropped sharply and closed at 4166.45 on Friday.

Furthermore, the RSI has dropped below 50, and the MACD and PMO have formed bearish crossovers, all signalling further weakness ahead.

A drop and hold below 200 could send the SPX down to around 4100, or lower to 4000...particularly if the ratio drops and holds below its next support level of 150 (the 200 MA sits at 173.43, so failure of price to hold that level will see major selling follow in the SPX).

Major historical support on the ratio sits at 100, which, up until the year 2000, represented major resistance during the 1990s. A drop and hold below that level would likely result in panic selling in the SPX, as we saw during the 2008/09 financial crisis [refer to the longer-timeframe monthly chart of the SPX (with SPX:VIX ratio displayed in histogram format) shown in my above-mentioned post for context].


Sunday, June 13, 2021

The Subversion of Women By Joe Biden's 'Woke' Whitehouse

I dedicate this post in memory of my dear Mom, who devoted her life to helping and advancing young women throughout her long and humble career.

The irony I laid out in my post of January 23 seems fitting, inasmuch as President Biden's White House has now replaced "mother" with "birthing person"...allegedly to be 'more inclusive' to people.

"Truly, the greatest trick the patriarchy has ever pulled was convincing liberals that stripping women of the things that make them unique to appease trans men is somehow the progressive and 'inclusive' thing to do." -- Washington Examiner

This goes hand-in-glove with Biden's support of biological boys and men being allowed to compete in girls and women's' sports...and to enter and use girls and women's bathrooms and locker rooms. 

This is very disrespectful, demeaning, misogynistic, sexist, subverting, cruel, and dangerous to girls and women, in my opinion. Are they trying to wipe out women's existence altogether, with all of their 'woke gender-neutral' terminology and policies

However, 

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Twitter profile still refers to her as a mother and grandmother, 
  • Joe Biden's profile refers to him as a husband, father and grandfather, 
  • Jill Biden's profile refers to her as a mother, grandmother and wife, and 
  • Kamala Harris' profile refers to her as a wife, momala and auntie. 

So, what gives? Why the hypocrisy? 

In the name of equality, will "father" be replaced by "sperm vessel?" 😒

This idiocy should be called out for what it is...the perversion/bastardization of the English language

Women and girls are not robots! How dare they pull these subversive stunts!

By the way, at what point does this nonsense become a national security threat?




Saturday, June 12, 2021

Inflation...Transitory Or Permanent? HINT: Bubblegum

* See UPDATE below...

I don't wish to be rude or flippant, but it seems that the big takeaway from the question/study of economic inflation theory -- Is it 'transitory' or permanent? -- is that:
  1. Economic theory is irrelevant.
  2. There are factors affecting inflation.
  3. But these factors are unpredictable.
  4. So, inflation projection could go up or down on a variety of modelling scenarios.
My 2 cents' worth...The days of buying "Dubble Bubble" bubblegum with FREE Comics & Fortunes for 1 cent during the 1920's are long gone...Check out Walmart's price now...


So, I'd say that inflation will keep rising over the coming months and years. The U.S. National Debt is not going to shrink or disappear; rather, it's accelerating, thanks to out-of-control spending by Washington and the White House. Check out the cost of bubblegum this time next year, and see.

Bubblegum...a good inflation gauge, no? 😏

By the way, at what level does inflation become a national security threat?

P.S.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE June 16...

The Fed seems to be waking up to the notion that inflation may not, in fact, be 'transitory' as they've been vigorously proclaiming for the past several months...although, "two rate hikes by the end of 2023" may be too little, too late.

Source: ZeroHedge

SB's "Weekend Bits & Bites" 😏

Stay cool...😎




Isn't it about time that Joe switched from 'club-flavoured' ice cream...

Source: ZeroHedge

...to this?


If not in President Macron's 'G7 old-cronies club,' at least former President Trump was loyal to and achieved many victories for the American people during his four years in office. (Perhaps Macron was still smarting from the slap on the face he received the other day by a fellow countryman.😒)

The Trump administration accomplishments can be found, in their entirety, at this archived link...an impressive feat during only a four-year presidency.









* UPDATE June 16...

The Geneva, Switzerland U.S./Russia 'sunglasses' summit took place today between President Biden and President Putin...where it was merely a 'talk about more talks.'

So, what gifts did Putin get from Biden?...sunglasses, a pipeline to Europe, sanctions lifted, a return of Russian diplomats to the U.S., a list of 16 U.S. critical infrastructure entities that are 'off-limits' to cyberattack by Russia (does that mean that everything else not on the list is OK to be attacked?...bizarre!), and the opportunity to answer dozens of questions from reporters and spew his propoganda on international TV for 55 minutes at the conclusion of the summit without challenge by Biden, because he wasn't at that solo press conference! Why not, Joe?

What gifts did Biden get from Putin?...nothing...and the 'privilege' of being the 'second act' to Putin in his 20-minute scripted solo press conference that followed, taking pre-screened questions from only 5 reporters...and the humiliation of being the 'bridesmaid,' not the 'bride.'

 

Friday, June 11, 2021

Media Bias? 😒

You be the judge...


Versus...


More "Icky" Faux Pas Political Moments By VP Harris

TGIF...

This report from Fox News...

"Users on Twitter roasted Vice President Harris for passing out cookies made in her likeness to reporters on a plane while travelling to meet with the President of Guatemala."

A bit narcissistic, no? Imagine if former President Trump had done that. 😏


Another rather "icky" loss-of-cool moment was committed by Kamala Harris on the international scene -- President Biden's appointed 'Border Czar' -- who, embarrassingly (for Biden), has, conveniently, blamed the countries of immigrant origin for their failed policies, rather than own up and admit that her own President caused it on Day One of his administration (by the way, why is she -- and Biden -- refusing to visit the border?).

At what point does Joe Biden's 'open border' policy and resultant illegal immigration surge become a national security threat and a dereliction of duty?

As soon as he took office in January he reversed all the policies of the previous administration...that were working to keep illegal immigration down. He also recklessly abandoned the completion and funding of the southern border wall, leaving all the wall materials spread out on the ground along the border to rot...thus killing hundreds of construction jobs and jeopardazing the lives of U.S. Border Guards and American citizens (especially along the border) in the process.

Since February, over 170,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the U.S. southern border per month, who've been apprehended (and likely that many more who have not) from dozens of foreign countries. Among them have been known terrorists, murderers, human traffickers (who are turning their victims into slaves, according to FBI Director Wray), rapists, gang members, drug smugglers/cartels, etc. 

So, modern-day slavery is back in the U.S.A., thanks to Biden's immigration and border policies.

Source: ZeroHedge

Too bad Biden doesn't put as much priority on defending his own borders, as he does that of Ukraine's...

Source: ZeroHedge

This is definitely another "icky" and "sticky" issue for Kamala...and Joe...and a serious (and preventable) threat for all Americans and the U.S. economy.


U.S. SPX Index vs. Brent Crude Oil/Russian RTSI Index/German DAX Index

What do all of these have in common?

First of all, take a look at the monthly comparison chart below of Brent Crude Oil, Russia's RTSI Index, and Germany's DAX Index.

From around April 2015, these three have traded virtually lockstep, with varying degrees of strength on their upward push from around April 2020.

While the DAX has rallied to new all-time highs, the RTSI is trading around major (long-term) resistance, and Brent is approaching major (long-term) resistance around 80.00.

The Balance of Power (BOP) (pertaining to Brent) is nearing its all-time historical high, as the buyers are currently in control.

We may see a final spike upwards in Brent towards 80.00, dragging the RTSI and DAX Indices along with it, before they all, either take a pause and consolidate, or pull back.

However, look for a possible deviation during such a spike by either or both the RTSI and DAX, potentially signalling that buying is weakening in Brent

Keep an eye on the Brent BOP to confirm either scenario.


Price on the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is nearing its +10 standard deviation on its long-term uptrending regression channel, at approximately 4300. Minor support sits around 4200.

The SPX:VIX Ratio is shown in histogram format in the bottom portion of the chart. Price on this ratio is just below its all-time historical high...representing major resistance. 

As you can see, it's had great difficulty breaking and remaining above the 250 level. It's first level of support is 200...followed by 150 and 100, respectively. 

A drop and hold below 200 could see the SPX drop to around 4200. A drop and hold of the ratio 5 MA below 200 could send the SPX sharply below 4200...in short order. 

Keep an eye on this ratio and 5 MA for clues as to direction and strength of the SPX.


CONCLUSIONS:

So, keep an eye on possible spikes in Brent towards the 80.00 level and the SPX towards 4300 before we see any kind of pause and consolidation of all of the above markets, or a sharp, swift pullback.

No doubt, these markets will react following the outcome of President Biden's meeting on June 16 with President Putin in Geneva, Switzerland, so we could very see a run-up until then.

Therefore, I'd say that, in the near term, the common denominator is Geneva's meeting, the outcome of which may be the catalyst for a sharp, swift change in direction for the SPX, RTSI, DAX and Brent.

We'll see what happens.

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Money Flow In Markets Year-To-Date

* See UPDATE below...

The following graphs show which segments of the markets have been the most favoured year-to-date.


With Gold flat for the year, it makes me wonder about the timing of President Macron's remarks today, and whether he has a particular buyer waiting in the wings ready to snap Gold up at 'bargain' prices. 🤔

It's currently sitting just above a minor support level of 1900, with major support lower at 1800, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Any buying spree may not happen until Gold dropped to1800, but we'll see if there's any pick up in interest anywhere in between minor and major support any time soon.

Perhaps we'll see some large holder of Bitcoin suddenly dump his/her shares, resulting in a plunge to 20,000 (see my post of May 20 for details), in order to fund a large purchase of Gold

However, this is just wild speculation on my part, but worth watching both of these, nonetheless.

Source: ZeroHedge


* UPDATE June 15...

In light of the obversations/scenario described in the following article, maybe my speculation about a 'buyer on tap' for Gold (the IMF?), as well as Bitcoin's possible demise, was not so wild after all. But, such a 'plan' is not without hurdles, complicated by a multitude of variables and players, as you'll see...and may take many months or years to achieve. 

Although, to cut through all of these hurdles in the near term, such a plan may include a 'non-political middle-man buyer-and-holder of Gold'...one who is also holding a sizable chunk of Bitcoin. If world-wide stagflation or a recession is on the horizon and if a borrowing drought from banks becomes rampant world-wide, perhaps a cartel of major banks will become this 'middle player.' 

In fact, such an interim move by a 'banking cartel' may stem the bleed from the fallout of an ugly scenario that I posited in my post of April 10.

Hint...who's talking up Bitcoin, while dissing Gold these days...in a lead up to this possibility?

In any event, I'll leave my wild speculation as a wild speculation...for now...until I see such a 'plan' begin to materialize, which may, first, show up in intermittent volatile price action on their respective charts.

Source: ZeroHedge