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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Wednesday, January 23, 2019

GOLD: Set To Explode Higher

Gold has been under quiet accumulation since last August, as shown on the following daily chart.

The moving averages formed a new bullish Golden Cross several days ago. The RSI and MACD indicators are in uptrend, the RSI is still above 50.00, and the STOCH has just made a bullish crossover.

Price on the following daily ratio chart of GOLD versus its Volatility Index (GOLD:GVZ) has just broken above its near-term major resistance around the 120.00 level.

Both the MACD and PMO indicators have put in a higher swing high, while the RSI has yet to do the same; however, it's still above the 50.00 level.

Should the ratio price remain above 120.00 and continue its rally, I'd like to see the RSI also make a new swing high. If that scenario occurs, there's a very good chance that GOLD could explode much higher in the days/weeks ahead. Near-term minor price resistance is around the 1360 level, followed by 1400 and 1550 major resistance, as shown on the weekly chart below.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Star-Studded FAANGs

I last wrote about the FAANGs and FNGU and what I was monitoring in my post of November 4, 2018.

2018 was the year we saw the FAANGs form bearish shooting stars. Each candle on the following charts of FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and GOOG represents a period of one year (absent on these charts is 2019's candle, as I've left it off to illustrate last year's weakness and volatility compared with prior years in these stocks).

You can see, at a glance, that FB is the weakest of the five, as it has erased almost all of its 2017 gains, as well as its gains last year.

Each candle on the following chart of FNGU represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.

FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies...the index is highly concentrated and equally weighted. It is comprised of the 5 FAANG stocks + 5 tech stocks, namely, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA and TWTR.

As of the end of last year, it had erased all of its gains since it began trading in January 2018, and more.

Each candle on the following charts of BABABIDUNVDATSLA and TWTR represents a period of one year. Also absent on these charts is 2019's candle.

None of these stocks had a good year in 2018, either. In fact, BIDU has lost all of its gains made since 2014 and has taken a bite out of gains made in 2013, and TWTR closed out the year still lower than its IPO price in 2013.

Each candle on the following charts of the FAANGs represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.

We've seen the FAANGs lead the equity markets higher prior to Q4 of 2018 (and Q3 in the case of FB and NFLX), then lead them lower during Q4.

There's been some short covering in all 10 stocks, so far, in 2019 as shown on the following 1-Year daily charts (including FNGU and the SPX).

However, it remains to be seen whether prolonged and serious buying will continue in these stocks so as to propel them to reclaim a leadership role, once again...or whether this is just a short-term dead-cat bounce. I'd keep a close watch on FB, AAPL and GOOG, in particular, as further weakness could have a knock-on effect on some (or all) of these, as well as equities, in general.

We'll also see how much longer TWTR can survive, whether BIDU will ever make a comeback...and, whether FNGU will continue to trade much longer if general weakness persists in its 10 stocks.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

China's Shanghai Index: Poised For A Plunge

Bearish Balance of Power may not shift on the Shanghai Index until (and if) 2000 is reached, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Otherwise, watch for a break and hold above 2500, together with a reversal, break and hold of the BOP indicator above the zero level to indicate a transference of power to bulls on this longer term timeframe.

2018 Market Wrap-Up: Extreme Volatility

The following charts depict 2018 market action in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), as well as the MSCI World Index. One word describes 2018 markets...volatile.

Volatility was extreme, as uncertainty gripped, not only U.S. markets, but markets world-wide, as well, as I had posited in my 2018 Market Forecast at the end of 2017. I believe it will continue to apply in 2019, and we'll see a world market slowdown, as I described in my 2019 Market Forecast.

Key levels that I'm watching on the SPX are 2600, 2400, 2250 and 2000, as illustrated in my post of December 27.

Market gauges that I'm monitoring in the weeks/months ahead are outlined in the above-mentioned posts, as the charts below are simply presented without comment (on the SPX) to depict this volatile price action.

Happy New Year and best of luck in 2019!

SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one year.

SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one quarter.

SPX -- Each candle on the  following chart represents a period of one month.

SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one year.

SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one quarter.

SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the  following ratio chart represents a period of one month.

MSCI World Index -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one week.

N.B. 1800 is a critical level, as a break and hold below will drag U.S. equities down, as well. It was briefly pierced during the last week of December and may be retested before, either resuming its plunge, or reversing course.

A tepid reversal will not produce lasting confidence or commitment in world markets, nor sustain a meaningful longer-term rally. In this regard, I've shown the input value as "one" on the three technical indicators (MOM, ROC and ATR) to illustrate and gauge the strength and velocity of either direction.

Happy New Year 2019

Thank you to everyone who visited my Blog in 2018 and to those who sent me thoughtful and encouraging emails...I really appreciated them. 😊

Thank you to the hosts of the following websites who post my articles.  If you haven't had a chance to view their sites, please do so...each one has many unique features, articles and tools to enhance your trading experience!

A reminder that my Market Forecast for 2019 can be found here👀

May everyone be blessed with good health, wealth, peace and happiness in 2019...Happy New Year!