UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
The moving averages formed a new bullish Golden Cross several days ago. The RSI and MACD indicators are in uptrend, the RSI is still above 50.00, and the STOCH has just made a bullish crossover.
Price on the following daily ratio chart of GOLD versus its Volatility Index (GOLD:GVZ) has just broken above its near-term major resistance around the 120.00 level.
Both the MACD and PMO indicators have put in a higher swing high, while the RSI has yet to do the same; however, it's still above the 50.00 level.
Should the ratio price remain above 120.00 and continue its rally, I'd like to see the RSI also make a new swing high. If that scenario occurs, there's a very good chance that GOLD could explode much higher in the days/weeks ahead. Near-term minor price resistance is around the 1360 level, followed by 1400 and 1550 major resistance, as shown on the weekly chart below.
Monday, January 14, 2019
2018 was the year we saw the FAANGs form bearish shooting stars. Each candle on the following charts of FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and GOOG represents a period of one year (absent on these charts is 2019's candle, as I've left it off to illustrate last year's weakness and volatility compared with prior years in these stocks).
You can see, at a glance, that FB is the weakest of the five, as it has erased almost all of its 2017 gains, as well as its gains last year.
Each candle on the following chart of FNGU represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.
FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies...the index is highly concentrated and equally weighted. It is comprised of the 5 FAANG stocks + 5 tech stocks, namely, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA and TWTR.
As of the end of last year, it had erased all of its gains since it began trading in January 2018, and more.
Each candle on the following charts of BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA and TWTR represents a period of one year. Also absent on these charts is 2019's candle.
None of these stocks had a good year in 2018, either. In fact, BIDU has lost all of its gains made since 2014 and has taken a bite out of gains made in 2013, and TWTR closed out the year still lower than its IPO price in 2013.
Each candle on the following charts of the FAANGs represents a period of one quarter. Also absent on this chart is 2019's Q1 candle.
We've seen the FAANGs lead the equity markets higher prior to Q4 of 2018 (and Q3 in the case of FB and NFLX), then lead them lower during Q4.
There's been some short covering in all 10 stocks, so far, in 2019 as shown on the following 1-Year daily charts (including FNGU and the SPX).
However, it remains to be seen whether prolonged and serious buying will continue in these stocks so as to propel them to reclaim a leadership role, once again...or whether this is just a short-term dead-cat bounce. I'd keep a close watch on FB, AAPL and GOOG, in particular, as further weakness could have a knock-on effect on some (or all) of these, as well as equities, in general.
We'll also see how much longer TWTR can survive, whether BIDU will ever make a comeback...and, whether FNGU will continue to trade much longer if general weakness persists in its 10 stocks.
Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Otherwise, watch for a break and hold above 2500, together with a reversal, break and hold of the BOP indicator above the zero level to indicate a transference of power to bulls on this longer term timeframe.
Volatility was extreme, as uncertainty gripped, not only U.S. markets, but markets world-wide, as well, as I had posited in my 2018 Market Forecast at the end of 2017. I believe it will continue to apply in 2019, and we'll see a world market slowdown, as I described in my 2019 Market Forecast.
Key levels that I'm watching on the SPX are 2600, 2400, 2250 and 2000, as illustrated in my post of December 27.
Market gauges that I'm monitoring in the weeks/months ahead are outlined in the above-mentioned posts, as the charts below are simply presented without comment (on the SPX) to depict this volatile price action.
SPX -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one year.
SPX -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one quarter.
SPX -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one month.
SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the following ratio chart represents a period of one year.
SPX:VIX Ratio -- Each candle on the following ratio chart represents a period of one quarter.
MSCI World Index -- Each candle on the following chart represents a period of one week.
N.B. 1800 is a critical level, as a break and hold below will drag U.S. equities down, as well. It was briefly pierced during the last week of December and may be retested before, either resuming its plunge, or reversing course.
A tepid reversal will not produce lasting confidence or commitment in world markets, nor sustain a meaningful longer-term rally. In this regard, I've shown the input value as "one" on the three technical indicators (MOM, ROC and ATR) to illustrate and gauge the strength and velocity of either direction.
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