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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

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* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Fri. Oct. 7 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 12 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Nov. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, February 28, 2022

How Does This Make Sense And Lead To A Sovereign Ukraine?

* See UPDATES below...

As long as the US and Germany (and any other country) continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, they are partially funding President Putin's war against Ukraine, are they not?

President Biden needs to reverse his executive orders that:

  • banned the Keystone XL pipeline from being built from Canada (which was already well under construction), and
  • banned further oil and gas exploration and drilling in the US on Federal lands and imposed further restrictions on the industry,

which, thereby, placed the US in a much weakened position with respect to energy and national security concerns...and a weakened position from which to respond to global crises, such as Ukraine and Afghanistan.

Until he does, he will have to continue to buy the excess oil and petroleum products the US currently needs from Russia...to fuel America's ever-increasing need for viable energy...and will continue to finance Putin's brutal war.

(American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers)

(US Energy Information Association)

Biden's agenda and policies that he's enacted since he took office in January 2021 have contributed to and triggered numerous economic/inflationary and international and national security crises.

If he continues with these policies, including buying Russian oil, etc., to the exclusion of unleashing oil and gas production in America, or, even worse, making a deal to buy it from the brutal terrorist regime of IRAN, with whom he's already negotiating, he can add the demise of Ukraine to his growing list of failures...all under the guise of promoting so-called "green energy policies" to, purportedly, combat "climate change"...at the expense of America's own dependable and readily-available supply of oil and gas and at the expense of Americans and their pocketbook (inflation).

Why is the Biden administration ready to make deals with even more "Devils?" 😕 

N.B. On that point, WHAT will Biden give away to Russia and Iran in exchange for trying to sign a new nuclear deal with Iran, as may be imminent, according to the following article?

WHY is he so anxious to get back into that deal? He hasn't explained that to to the American people. 

WHY is he so anxious to buy Iranian oil, but not allow U.S. producers to ramp up their domestic production?

IF Russia's oil is sanctioned by the U.S., will Russia circumvent that by selling it to Iran, then Iran sell it onward to the U.S.?

WHY is Biden weakening America's energy sector with these actions? 

 WHY is no one asking him these questions?


ZeroHedge excerpt

N.B. So, IF Biden continues to "lead from behind," it's doubtful we'll see the U.S. ban Russian oil imports, unless Europe does, as well.

"Biden's own 'green deal' lunacy"...

ZeroHedge excerpt

By the way, President Biden really has no reason to go before Congress and the American people tomorrow, during his State of the Union Address, to tout any of his policies that he's unleashed over the past year as being successful...in fact, quite the opposite is true.

So, how does any of this make sense and lead to a sovereign Ukraine, especially since President Zelensky, reportedly, just filled out an application for membership in the EU?

German, EU, and US leaders need to explain how it makes sense...and why they are, incidentally, financing this Russian invasion of Ukraine...which includes acts of terrorism and war crimes against civilians and children.

* UPDATE March 1...

It seems that Americans do NOT approve of the job that  President Biden has done over the past year. His approval rating is now down at 37%

It's no wonder, as his left-leaning socialist policies are NOT popular and he was NOT elected with a clear majority mandate in Congress to implement them.

It's time for him to drastically change course to a more sensible and centrist agenda that could garner bi-partisan approval and eliminate the harsh divisiveness and chaos that he's caused among the population.

Talk about devastating timing with the release of this report right before President Biden's SOTU Address tonight...stagflation rears its ugly head.

How will Biden explain that to Americans, while still pushing his massively-inflationary spending and energy-crippling agenda!

Also, the EU has just voted "YES" to accept President Zelensky's membership application to join the European Union.

* UPDATE March 2...

President Biden, in his SOTU Address last night, touted the same old tired, far-left socialist agenda and spending priorities

His speech lacked any acknowledgement of reality relative to the economy and the impacts of rampant inflation, triggered by his policies, as described above.

It lacked any fixes for the current state of affairs, and was bereft of any future-oriented imaginative and prescriptive ideas to sustainably and responsibly grow the economy and ramp up international and national security measures.

I doubt whether his party will be able to convince Americans that their problems are being properly addressed by this administration, so I think the GOP will retake control of both the House and Senate in the November mid-term elections.

As I said, the majority of Americans are NOT in favour of his agenda.

It seems that Mr. Biden is NOT listening...or simply doesn't care...or both.

* UPDATE March 5...

Even electric car-maker, Elon Musk, gets it...why doesn't Joe Biden?


If the Supreme Court rules against Biden, he may not have a choice but to accept the reality around sound, prudent, and pragmatic energy policies...and pivot away from his crippling and dogmatic "green" regulations.

* UPDATE March 6...

The following article provides a summary of all Russia sanctions and developments, to date...bookmark this link to check back for further updates...


Is There A Dow Rule-Breaker Lurking on February 28? 😏

* See UPDATES below...

IF there is an "old" Dow rule-breaker lurking about somewhere in the ether, then Monday's trading should not end in a "Crash." 

OTHERWISE...brace yourselves if history repeats itself, as described in the following ZeroHedge article.

BUT...although the Dow 30 Index closed at its all-time high on January 4, it reached an intraday all-time high on January 5...so, 55 calendar days later could put the "Crash" date forward by one day to March 1.

SO...either way, we may (or may not) see a "Crash" on Monday or Tuesday...depending on whether the "old" rule-breaker shows up. 😏

* UPDATE February 28...

No "Crash" today...

* UPDATE March 1...

No "Crash" today, either...the "Old Guy" (Fed Chairman Powell???) is still around, for now...we'll see how long that lasts.

P.S. By the way, Chair Powell looked nervous and stressed as he testified before the House Financial Services Committee on March 2
His responses to various questions posed by Committee members pertining to rampant and rising inflation, as well as the oil and gas industry relative to Biden's climate change policies/agenda, sounded weak, wishy-wasy and ill-prepared. 
It didn't sound like the Fed is prepared to act in any meaningful or serious way to quickly tamp down inflation and its destructive consequences. It appears that they are more concerned with keeping markets over-inflated at record levels than they are at deploying their monetary policies in a sound manner, as their mandate so requires (lacking or ignoring serious predictive warnings)...if they were, I doubt that inflation would have reached current levels.

So, I may not be wrong in assuming that the "Old  Guy" who showed up in markets yesterday (and today) may, in fact, be Powell...or, rather his "silent influence."


MEANWHILE...U.S. equity markets are clinging to and threatening to break below major support...so, stay tuned as things heat up in global Oil markets...and other areas of concern in which the Fed may be ill-prepared to act in a timely, effective and prudent manner.



Sunday, February 27, 2022

U.S. Major Sectors Remain Defensive

The following graphs of the U.S. Major Sectors show that, for the most part, investing has remained defensive for a one-year period, with Energy taking the leading role. 

My latest post of February 24 on WTI Crude Oil described price targets in certain scenarios.

There has been some mild interest in Technology, Industrials, Materials, and Financials during February.

However, until we see sustained major buying flow into the Discretionary Sector, I think that any further advance on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will be sporadic, whippy, tepid, and chaotic (see my post of February 21 and important UPDATE of February 23 for target prices and clues on market direction)...and that markets will remain, primarily, defensive.

We may have to wait until the Fed meets on March 16 to determine what their immediate and longer-term monetary policy will look like on interest rates in order to gauge which Sectors will gain or lose momentum in the short and medium term.

So, keep an eye on which Sectors are gathering strength on weekly graphs until then...and thereafter...as another trend/strength tool (StockCharts graphs).

U.S. Major Sectors One Year

U.S. Major Sectors Year-To-Date

U.S. Major Sectors February

U.S. Major Sectors One Week


Saturday, February 26, 2022

BIDEN/PUTIN: More Talks? What's The Point? 😕

What's the point, President Biden?

Because...

And, as you and other world leaders have already discovered from your latest talks with Putin...

So...

And, if you do...beware...

P.S. This is what you get when you negotiate with fools...


ZeroHedge Excerpt
(Russia was one of 5 countries)

White House Joint Statement


UKRAINE: In Solidarity


In Solidarity


God Speed


How Healthy Is Dr. Copper?

* See UPDATE below...

The last time that Copper's (HG) Average True Range of each month remained elevated at extreme levels for an extended period of time (from mid-2006 to April 2008), it eventually lost over 50% of its value, as shown on the following monthly chart.

The ATR is shown in histogram format with an input value of one period, to illustrate prior reversal points on extreme ATR spikes, or points at which price stalled, then consolidated.

It's been consolidating inside a large range between 4.00 and 4.90 since March 2021, following an extreme spike the month before, and the ATR has been generally declining since then...a sign that price is coiling in preparation for a breakout one way or the other.

Failure to break and hold above 4.90 on steadily increasing ATR spikes could see it plummet below 4.00 to around 3.00, or even 2.50.

So, we may see an extreme ATR spike form, if price retests or overshoots 4.90 to, possibly, signal the next reversal point to send it down to one, or all, of the above targets...one clue worth monitoring over the coming months.

In conclusion, I'd say that Dr. Copper may be tired and becoming anemic...and may be ready to look for lower ground on which to sleep for awhile...particularly, since it's doubtful that the global supply chain issue is going to be resolved any time soon, and the Fed may end up aggressively raising interest rates faster than market makers may think, to curb out-of-control inflation and spiking oil prices.

* UPDATE March 4...

Copper spiked above 4.90 mid-day and is holding, so far, as at 2:20 pm ET.

There is no extreme spike, yet, on the monthly ATR (for March), as shown on the chart below...although, it's been rising since February.

If price pushes higher, keep an eye on the ATR over the coming days and weeks, to see whether it has formed an extreme spike by the end of March...to, potentially, signal that a sharp reversal may, then, be forthcoming.


Friday, February 25, 2022

The Biden Administration Did What?

* See UPDATE below...

OMG...according to the New York Times, the Biden administration presented intelligence to China showing Russian military buildup around Ukraine, hoping President Xi would intervene.

China promptly turned around and shared this intel with Russia and claimed that the U.S. was trying to "sow discord"...then refused to assist Biden when asked, repeatedly, over a three-month period.

That should not have come as a surprise, since it was public information that China and Russia had already formed an alliance.

Why on earth would President Biden and his minions think that China, it's number one adversary, would be a trustworthy partner to, firstly, be privileged to receive U.S. intelligence, then, be in sync with the U.S. objectives to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Are there no intelligent adults in Washington, especially in the Biden administration? They are bringing America to its knees in terms of energy and economic pressures, along with multiple escalating national security and foreign threats, because of their bad policies and actions, to date.

With this group of inept and weak-kneed apologists running America's national and foreign affairs, along with strategic economic and energy policies, God help Ukraine, America, and the world!

* UPDATE March 3...

China is no friend of the U.S. or Europe...I wonder when the West will realize that...

So, how is Putin extending Russia's border westward to Europe via a takeover of Ukraine any different than NATO possibly accepting Ukraine as a member to move its border next to Russia?

HINT...it's NOT!

NATO is NOT the one bombing Ukrainians at the moment...NOR have they voted to accept Ukraine into NATO.

So, China's stance is moot and without merit in its blame of NATO.

ZeroHedge excerpt


SPX: Beware Of Market And Political Rumours

The compressed daily S&P 500 Index (SPX) chart below depicts what trades look like based on a variety of market and political news reports (rumours), depending on their scale of perceived importance.

November 26, 2021 began a series of large, wild whipsaw daily and weekly swings in both directions...depicted by the Average True Range indicator shown in histogram format and based on an input value of one period.

That day, the WHO identified Omicron as a new and highly infectious and transmissible COVID-19 variant of concern. 

There have been many rumours flying about on that subject, ever since...sending markets gyrating into chaotic swings.

On January 24, 2022, the White House Press Secretary proclaimed that US citizens residing in Ukraine should leave immediately due to invasion threats from Russia.

And, there have been many rumours flying about on that subject, ever since...sending markets gyrating into chaotic swings.

It seems to me that until these issues, and other international and national security concerns are settled, one way or another, the SPX will continue to thrash about wildly and will remain stuck in this large trading range (between 4200 and 4800).

My post of February 21 and update of February 23 contain further details describing various scenarios that are possible for the S&P 500 Futures Index (ES)...keep an on those for clues regarding direction/trend and beware of rumours as long as the SPX stays in this range.

N.B. The following proposal regarding the Russia/Ukraine conflict sounds like sane advice given in 2015, don't you think? 

Too bad it wasn't taken seriously by "the powers that be."

Also, it seems as though what the West was promising Ukraine years ago were the same rosy promises used for 20 years in Afghanistan, and look how that ended, courtesy of President Biden.

By the way, there's much more on that school of thought at this Zero Hedge article.

~~~~~~~

BEWARE: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. 😕



Firday's Flubs 😕

So who's lying? 

This ridiculous claim was made by White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, after President Biden emphatically said in yesterday's press conference that the sanctions imposed against Russia were NEVER about deterring President Putin from invading Ukraine.

However, VP Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are all on the record recently, insisting that sanctions WERE meant to act as a deterrence.

Someone forgot to tell Joe Biden the storyline. 😕

This isn't the first time that Psaki and others in his administration (and cabinet) completely contradicted something that Biden has said since January 2021...and I doubt it will be the last.

What a joke! Who are Americans and the rest of the world supposed to trust anymore and what are they supposed to believe?

Perhaps the President and his administration will finally be held to account for all their blunders, flip-flops, and lies, leading to a variety of national security crises, when the GOP retakes the House and the Senate in the November mid-term elections.