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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Deco Tree

Deco Tree

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Jan. 4, 2023 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. Jan. 6 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Jan. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Feb. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Will The PHO ETF Sink Or Swim?

The following monthly chart of the Invesco Water Resources ETF (PHO) shows that price has been under stress since January 2022.

This followed a lengthy and unprecedented amount of bullish momentum and rate-of-change activity in the months from November 2020 until this year.

It pushed the price up from a low of 41.21 to a high of 61.07 before dropping to a low of 43.22 by this past June...nearly wiping out all of its gains since then.

If global water resources remain under pressure and continue to dry up, as described in the Zero Hedge article below, we may see PHO retest the 40.00 level, or drop lower.

Keep an eye on a potential increase of bearish momentum and rate-of-change to arise on this timeframe for clues of further weakness ahead for PHO.

Alternatively, look for the reverse scenario occurring to signal a possible retest of the prior monthly swing high, or push higher.





Natural Gas Futures Index Is Approaching Escape Velocity

The Natural Gas Futures Index (NG) has had difficulty holding above 5.500 since May 2000, as shown on the following monthly chart.

However, momentum (shown in histogram format for clarity) has been building steadily since October 2020, which eventually propelled the price above major resistance at 3.500 in June 2021, and finally above 5.500 in March 2022.

Momentum has not yet reached its historical extreme overbought level yet, so we may see a retest of NG's all-time high of 15.780 (set in December 2005) sometime in the near future, perhaps by the end of this year.

Watch for such an extreme spike to form on the MOM indicator to signal a potential reversal point in this latest rally...should NG continue upward, unhindered by any near-term resistance.


Sunday, August 21, 2022

SPX: Will That Be CASH or CRASH?

* See UPDATES below...

I added the following update today in my post of July 26 pertaining to the MSCI World Index:

To that, I'd note that it's still a bear market for the SPX (currently below its 50 MA) on a weekly timeframe (until it makes a higher swing low and higher swing high), as shown on the following chart.

A drop and hold below the 50 MA on the following weekly chart of the SPX:VIX ratio could signal that we'll see another leg down on the SPX.

For further clues on such a possibility, keep an eye on the following daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio.

If price drops and holds below its 200 MA, if the RSI drops and holds below 50.00, and if the MACD and PMO form and hold bearish crossovers, we'll see the SPX drop, possibly to a new weekly swing low, especially if a bearish Death Cross reforms and holds on the SPX:VIX ratio weekly timeframe.

* UPDATE Aug. 22...

Noteworthy today...as at 1:11pm ET:

  • the SPX has gapped down on the open and plunged to well below last week's low, as shown on the weekly chart,
  • the SPX:VIX ratio has dropped below both 50 and 200 MAs, as shown on the weekly chart,
  • and the SPX:VIX ratio has dropped below its 200 MA, but is still above the 50 MA, the RSI has dropped below 50.00, and bearish crossovers have formed on the MACD and PMO, as shown on the daily chart.

We'll see if the SPX continues to weaken, along with the SPX:VIX ratio, as traders await Fed Chairman Powell's remarks on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for any hints of upcoming interest rate hikes, either more hawkish or dovish than anticipated.

However, I seem to recall that Chair Powell has not, typically, telegraphed the Fed's intentions on future rates in his previous Jackson Hole speeches...so, I wouldn't expect him to veer off course in this one.

P.S. The SPX closed at 4137.99, after making a low of 4129.86 today.




* UPDATE Aug. 26...

Fed Chairman Powell spooked U.S. markets with his unmistakable hawkish outlook for interest rates and the pain ahead for Americans and companies...

The SPX and other Major Indices plunged on the news...and closed at/near their lows of the day.

This may be the catalyst that begins the next leg down on the weekly timeframe, as outlined above.

 SPX Daily

* UPDATE Sept. 3...

With approximately half of all U.S. companies anticipating that they will have to lay off workers over the next 12 months, and many Americans becoming homeless, President Biden should get busy and concentrate on fixing his broken economy (of his own making), instead of demonizing half of the country, as he did in his reprehensible speech on Thursday.


Joe Biden Speech Sept. 1, 2022




The stocks markets have erased all of their gains made since Biden took office on January 2021.

So, he's even ruined that segment of America with his out-of-control and debt-ridden spending packages.



The National Debt owed per taxpayer is nearly $245,000 and rising by the nano-second!

It seems that Joe's fond of red!

N.B. Until the President drastically changes course (a good start would be to unleash the oil and gas industry and drop his overly-restrictive regulations), trade with caution!


Saturday, August 20, 2022

Where Did Your Infrastructure $ Go? 🤔

As if spending $1.2 Trillion on Joe Biden's so-called Infrastructure bill wasn't enough pain inflicted on taxpayers last November, they will have to cough up another $500,000 to pay for the construction of a wall around his Delaware private beach house.

Meanwhile, he refuses to finish constructing the wall along the southern border to secure the safety of all Americans.

And, Democrat House speaker Nancy Pelosi has shelved a bill to provide extra badly-needed funding for police forces around the country...so that Democrats could double the size of the IRS and begin their Green New Deal agenda, while taxing Americans another $739 Billion.

Democrats could care less about your safety and security...or your quest to survive on an adequate income!

Selfish and hypocritical, no? 🤔






Tuesday, August 16, 2022

WTI CRUDE OIL: Trading In A Chaos Zone

* See UPDATES below...

In my post of March 2 regarding WTI Crude Oil, I mentioned that my previous price Targets 1 and 2 (100.00 and 111.00-112.00), which I'd identified in my prior post of February 24, had been hit...and that Target 3 (147.27) still remained intact.

However, just days later, price hit a high of 130.50 on March 7...not quite tagging Target 3, but coming fairly close...before chopping around that level, then beginning a drop to current levels, as shown on the following monthly chart. 

Note that an extreme spike formed by the end of March on the ATR indicator...hinting that a price turnaround may be imminent. As I did in my March post, I've shown the ATR with an input value of one period to clearly illustrate that such a spike occurred that month.

Price is stuck, again, within, what I've dubbed a 'Chaos Zone,' in between 80.00 and 100.00

Previous attempted breakouts above this zone have been short-lived, since January 2008. In fact, those breakouts have all been followed by a large drop to retest long-term major support at 40.00.

Whether price drops to 40.00 any time soon, is anyone's guess. If it does, watch to see if the ATR forms another extreme spike to signal a potential price reversal.

However, if such a spike occurs at any price above that level on the monthly timeframe, a bounce may soon follow...possibly to tag or surpass Target 3 (147.27).

So, keep an eye on the ATR for clues in this regard.

* UPDATE Aug. 17...

Although world markets may be headed toward a recession, that may not negatively impact demand and the price of oil, as described in the following article.

* UPDATE Aug. 21...

However, the following court win for oil and gas exploration and production on U.S. federal lands may eventually bring down the price of Crude Oil and Gas whenever the producers in those states begin their operations...provided that Biden's EPA regulations aren't too cost-prohibitive and onerous at that time.


Homebuilders ETF Looks Shaky

The following monthly chart of the Homebuilders ETF (XHB) reveals the explosive activity that occured from mid-2020 to January 2022 -- nearly doubling in value -- before plunging, along with the Major Averages and equities, then bouncing somewhat.

However, anything above 40.00, especially above 50.00, is subject to further weakness and a rapid downdraft -- to, potentially, the long-term major support level of 30.00, or lower -- as the U.S. and world economies slow into recession over the coming weeks and months.

If XHB plummets, I expect that the SPX will follow...so, this ETF is worth monitoring closely.

The following article describes the recent weakness in this market.


Sunday, August 14, 2022

REMINDER: The Mayonnaise Jar

N.B. I originally posted this 11 years ago, after my husband died. In light of the current strife and challenges people are facing these days, I thought I'd repost it.


When things in your life seem almost too much to handle,

When 24 hours in a day is not enough,

Remember the mayonnaise jar and 2 cups of coffee...


A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in front of him. When the class began, wordlessly, he picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise jar and proceeded to fill it with golf balls. He then asked the students if the jar was full. They agreed that it was. The professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open areas between the golf balls. He then asked the students again if the jar was full. They agreed it was. The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course, the sand filled up everything else. He asked once more if the jar was full. The students responded with a unanimous 'yes.' The professor then produced two cups of coffee from under the table and poured the entire contents into the jar, effectively filling the empty space between the sand. The students laughed. 'Now,' said the professor, as the laughter subsided, 'I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things - family, children, health, friends, and favorite passions - things that if everything else was lost and only they remained, your life would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, house, and car. The sand is everything else - the small stuff.' 'If you put the sand into the jar first,' he continued, 'there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls. The same goes for life. If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff, you will never have room for the things that are important to you. So... pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness. Play with your children. Take time to get medical checkups. Take your partner out to dinner. There will always be time to clean the house and fix the disposal. Take care of the golf balls first - the things that really matter. Set your priorities. The rest is just sand.'

One of the students raised her hand and inquired what the coffee represented.

The professor smiled. 'I'm glad you asked. It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem, there's always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend.' 


Monday, August 08, 2022

SOFTBANK: Hooked On Bubbles

* See UPDATE below...

Over the years, I've posted numerous articles on equity bubbles bursting, at this link.

I can add another one to the list...Japanese SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY).

As shown on the following monthly chart, SFTBY hit its all-time high of 50.00 in February of 2021 and began its plunge the next month. It lost over 60% of its value by May 2022.

There has been no sustained advancement above its near-term support at 16.00 since its IPO in 2010.

Failure to hold above 16.00 could see it plummet in short order to 10.00, or lower.

SoftBank's reckless business investment risks and failures are described in the following article...

* UPDATE Aug. 13...

"...we had our heads in the clouds."

So, will that ailment be transitory, or permanent? 😏


ZeroHedge excerpt



Bubbles are meant for baths! 😏