Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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* Wed. Aug. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. Sept. 2 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Sept. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Sept. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Nov. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

WTI CRUDE OIL: Trading In A Chaos Zone

* See UPDATE below...

In my post of March 2 regarding WTI Crude Oil, I mentioned that my previous price Targets 1 and 2 (100.00 and 111.00-112.00), which I'd identified in my prior post of February 24, had been hit...and that Target 3 (147.27) still remained intact.

However, just days later, price hit a high of 130.50 on March 7...not quite tagging Target 3, but coming fairly close...before chopping around that level, then beginning a drop to current levels, as shown on the following monthly chart. 

Note that an extreme spike formed by the end of March on the ATR indicator...hinting that a price turnaround may be imminent. As I did in my March post, I've shown the ATR with an input value of one period to clearly illustrate that such a spike occurred that month.

Price is stuck, again, within, what I've dubbed a 'Chaos Zone,' in between 80.00 and 100.00

Previous attempted breakouts above this zone have been short-lived, since January 2008. In fact, those breakouts have all been followed by a large drop to retest long-term major support at 40.00.

Whether price drops to 40.00 any time soon, is anyone's guess. If it does, watch to see if the ATR forms another extreme spike to signal a potential price reversal.

However, if such a spike occurs at any price above that level on the monthly timeframe, a bounce may soon follow...possibly to tag or surpass Target 3 (147.27).

So, keep an eye on the ATR for clues in this regard.

* UPDATE Aug. 17...

Although world markets may be headed toward a recession, that may not negatively impact demand and the price of oil, as described in the following article.

Homebuilders ETF Looks Shaky

The following monthly chart of the Homebuilders ETF (XHB) reveals the explosive activity that occured from mid-2020 to January 2022 -- nearly doubling in value -- before plunging, along with the Major Averages and equities, then bouncing somewhat.

However, anything above 40.00, especially above 50.00, is subject to further weakness and a rapid downdraft -- to, potentially, the long-term major support level of 30.00, or lower -- as the U.S. and world economies slow into recession over the coming weeks and months.

If XHB plummets, I expect that the SPX will follow...so, this ETF is worth monitoring closely.

The following article describes the recent weakness in this market.

Sunday, August 14, 2022

REMINDER: The Mayonnaise Jar

N.B. I originally posted this 11 years ago, after my husband died. In light of the current strife and challenges people are facing these days, I thought I'd repost it.

When things in your life seem almost too much to handle,

When 24 hours in a day is not enough,

Remember the mayonnaise jar and 2 cups of coffee...

A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in front of him. When the class began, wordlessly, he picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise jar and proceeded to fill it with golf balls. He then asked the students if the jar was full. They agreed that it was. The professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open areas between the golf balls. He then asked the students again if the jar was full. They agreed it was. The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course, the sand filled up everything else. He asked once more if the jar was full. The students responded with a unanimous 'yes.' The professor then produced two cups of coffee from under the table and poured the entire contents into the jar, effectively filling the empty space between the sand. The students laughed. 'Now,' said the professor, as the laughter subsided, 'I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things - family, children, health, friends, and favorite passions - things that if everything else was lost and only they remained, your life would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, house, and car. The sand is everything else - the small stuff.' 'If you put the sand into the jar first,' he continued, 'there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls. The same goes for life. If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff, you will never have room for the things that are important to you. So... pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness. Play with your children. Take time to get medical checkups. Take your partner out to dinner. There will always be time to clean the house and fix the disposal. Take care of the golf balls first - the things that really matter. Set your priorities. The rest is just sand.'

One of the students raised her hand and inquired what the coffee represented.

The professor smiled. 'I'm glad you asked. It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem, there's always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend.' 

Monday, August 08, 2022

SOFTBANK: Hooked On Bubbles

* See UPDATE below...

Over the years, I've posted numerous articles on equity bubbles bursting, at this link.

I can add another one to the list...Japanese SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY).

As shown on the following monthly chart, SFTBY hit its all-time high of 50.00 in February of 2021 and began its plunge the next month. It lost over 60% of its value by May 2022.

There has been no sustained advancement above its near-term support at 16.00 since its IPO in 2010.

Failure to hold above 16.00 could see it plummet in short order to 10.00, or lower.

SoftBank's reckless business investment risks and failures are described in the following article...

* UPDATE Aug. 13...

"...we had our heads in the clouds."

So, will that ailment be transitory, or permanent? 😏

ZeroHedge excerpt

Bubbles are meant for baths! 😏