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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Winter Cat

Winter Cat

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

* Wed. Nov. 30 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 2 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Dec. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Jan. 4, 2023 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Feb. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Saturday, October 29, 2022

META: Tech-Wreck's Leader Of The Pack

* See UPDATES below...

The following one-year charts and year-to-date percentages gained/lost graph show how much the 10 Technology stocks within the FNGU ETF have dropped during those periods.

META (Facebook) has lost the most, percentage-wise (70.51%), so far this year, followed by:

  • NVDA (52.93%),
  • NFLX (50.91),
  • BIDU (47.21%),
  • BABA (46.34%),
  • AMZN (37.97%),
  • TSLA (35.13%),
  • GOOGL (33.53%),
  • MSFT (29.41%), and 
  • AAPL (11.93%).

FNGU has, itself, lost 87.05% this year.

Further weakness in META could drag these stocks lower...one to watch...along with the VXN:NDX ratio, as described in my post of October 18.

One-year Daily Charts

Year-to-date Percentages Gained/Lost graph

META has been running in circles...and is back in 2016 territory...





P.S. Is AMZN next? Note the parabolic rise...usually followed by a similar plunge.


* UPDATE Oct. 31...

Oh my! 😲

No wonder the Biden administration does NOT want Republicans taking control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections...who will, surely, add this to their growing list of intended investigations!









* UPDATE Nov. 1...

Some interesting statistics...(N.B. TWTR was delisted from the NYSE on November 28, since it was privatized, following its sale to Elon Musk)...




* UPDATE Nov. 4...

Who wouldn't like to a fly on the wall during these upcoming depositions?

Things should get "interesting" as Americans finally get the transparency, to which they are fully entitled.

* UPDATE Nov. 6...

With META reportedly poised to announce thousands of job layoffs sometime this week, it should be a wild week in markets with all eyes on Tuesday's midterm election results...isn't it interesting that they're waiting until after that to announce! 🤔


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt


Monday, October 24, 2022

Chaos In China's Hang Seng Index

* See UPDATE below...

In my post of March 14, I described a scenario where a drop and hold below 20,000 on China's Hang Seng Index (HK50) could see it plunge to 16,000, or lower.

It, subsequently, swirled around that level, finally closing below at the end of August, as shown on the following monthly chart.

It has since plummeted and closed on Monday at 15,180.69...losing 6.3% on the day.

Sellers are in control, as downside volatility is increasing.

Should price remain below 20,000, it could easily drop to 12,000, or even lower to 8,000.

Monday was a bad day for all Chinese indices.

There are numerous major issues, with which China is grappling, including their property market, technology sector, zero COVID-19 policies, inflation, currency, support for Russia in their war with Ukraine, etc.,...none of which can be readily resolved...and none of which would be attractive to new foreign investment.

The following article describes some of those.

N.B. Further China weakness may drag other world markets (or their financial institutions) lower, if they are already heavily invested, directly or indirectly, in any of those markets. 

So, bear in mind the remarks I made in my post of October 22.

* UPDATE Oct. 29...

The Hang Seng Index lost further ground this past week...opening below 16,000 and closing at 14,863.06.

It closed below the bottom of a long-term uptrending channel the prior week around the 16,500 level, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Any sustainable rally over the coming weeks will need to see it retake and hold above, firstly, 16,000, then 16,500...for a possible retest of 20,000

Otherwise, it could easily plunge to 12,000, or, even, 8,000.

Correspondingly, the Shanghai Index (SSEC) is caught in a narrow band within a large matrix (between 3,000 and 2,840), as shown on the following monthly chart.

It's had difficulty remaining above 3,550 since January 2007, which is a formidable long-term resistance level (and part of a significant future apex within this matrix...forming roughly in April 2029).

Failure to convincingly retake and hold above 3,000, could see it plunge to 2,500, or, even, 2,000.

For now, China weakness continues.

* UPDATE Nov. 27...

From the following report, it's clear that the China boom of the 1990s, then the 2000s, has been badly damaged, as shown on the monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index (HK50) below.

HK50 has failed to continue with the upward trajectory and pace of those decades, evident by the break and plunge below the longterm rising channel this year.

Furthermore, HK50 has struggled to remain and gather strength above 20,000 for the past 16 years.

I find it hard to believe that China will regain its former glory any time soon, if ever, (a) for the reasons cited in the report, (b) for the aforementioned charting reasons, as well as, (c) the fact that world countries are moving away from their previous reliance on cheap Chinese goods in favour of domestic product development and production.

As such, I anticipate that HK50 will be locked in a large sideways trading range for some time -- complete with volatile whipsaw price action -- between 12,000 and 20,000.



Sunday, October 23, 2022

DOORDASH: Another COVID-Era Venture Bites The Dust

As shown on the following two daily charts, DoorDash Inc. (DASH) has lost 76% of its value, to date, from its IPO closing price of $189.51 on December 9, 2020 -- after spiking higher, twice, to 256.09 and 257.25, respectively, followed by two plunges -- to Friday's close of 45.23.

Beware of these volatile, parabolic one-hit COVID-era wonders, as they may never recover, especially during the current high-inflation environment [classic case in point is Zoom (ZM) as described here]...and pity the buyers at the top!



Saturday, October 22, 2022

WORLD MONEY FLOW: October Week 3, 2022

The following graphs depict percentages gained/lost world-wide for the third week of October for a variety of major world indices, sectors, commodities, currencies and banks.

US Major Indices

US Major Sectors

European Major Indices

Canada, Japan & Australia

EEM & BRICs

Agriculture & Commodities

Currencies, US Bonds, Bitcoin, XLF, EUFN & GXC

Major Banks

At a glance, traders favoured:

  • high-risk versus low-risk assets (growth over value),
  • US markets versus Europe and Canada,
  • the Energy sector, particularly Brent Crude Oil,
  • Brazil and Russia,
  • Gasoline,
  • Silver, Platinum and Copper,
  • the Aussie and Canadian Dollars, and, to a lesser extent, the Euro and British Pound Sterling,
  • US and European Financial ETFs, and
  • major banks (perhaps bank buy-backs were heavily involved).
Losers for the week were:
  • US Bonds, 
  • the US Dollar, 
  • WTI Crude Oil, 
  • Agriculture, 
  • China, 
  • Australia, and
  • Japan.

As well as October's end-of-month focus for fund managers, important upcoming dates are: 

  • the US Fed meeting (interest rate announcement and press conference) on November 2, and
  • the US midterm elections on November 8.

Until the midterm elections are over and all results are fully tabulated and settled, markets may continue to experience volatile, wild whipsaw intraday swings, until we see clear signs of capitulation...as I've discussed in many recent posts.

In this regard, keep an eye on:

  • the US Dollar,
  • the Energy sector, 
  • the Technology sector,
  • the Discretionary sector,
  • world Financial sectors, and 
  • major banks 
for signs of continued risk appetite (e.g., Technology, Discretionary and major banks), or flights to safety (e.g., US Dollar and Energy).


Tuesday, October 18, 2022

INSANE MARKET RISK: Who's Ready For Round Two? 😵

In answer to my question above, I'd say anyone who loves risk in BTC/USD, ARKK, and FNGU...and, even, NDX.

But, if you want to protect what cash you have left, beware of their extreme volatility (proclivity toward parabolic whipsaw swings) and weakness!

The following weekly VXN:NDX ratio chart depicts the wild volatility swings over the past five years. 

I don't believe that capitulation has been achieved in the NDX, yet..not until the ratio hits 0.0060, or even higher toward 0.0120.

In this regard, watch for a bullish Golden Cross to form on the weekly MAs, the RSI to remain above 50.00, and the bullish crossovers to hold on the MACD and PMO, to confirm this possibility.



Monday, October 17, 2022

U.S. Bonds, Yields and Volatility Near Extreme Levels

* See UPDATES below...

The following monthly charts show the extreme moves (plunges and spikes) and volatility experienced this year in the 10-Year T-Note (TYZ2), the 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10YT), and the MOVE Index (MOVE) (which measures Treasury rate volatility through options pricing).

They are all trading near a critical support or resistance level, shown in pink.

If the MOVE Index blows through 160.00, we may see TYZ2 drop to 100.00, or lower, and US10YT spike up to 5.00, or higher...so, keep an eye on that one.




The following tweets are from the weekend...so what's going on in the bond market?






More interesting tweets...serious problems abound, and President Biden seems oblivious to all of them...





* UPDATE Oct. 23...

An interesting take on US Bonds...

2-Yr, 5-Yr, 10-Yr & 30-Yr US Bonds have begun to rally, as shown on the following 20-day 60-min. intraday chartgrid...but, it's too early to tell if they have bottomed.

* UPDATE Oct. 31...

Oops!...🤔

Keep an eye on (Nov. 2interest rates and "Fed-speak!"




* UPDATE Nov. 1...

+160.3% at its peak in 1987...to -1.8% now.

I repeat...what's going on in the bond market? 😲