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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Fall

Fall

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Nov. 3 ~ U.S. Presidential Election
* Thurs. Nov. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. Nov. 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Tues. Nov. 17 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Nov. 25 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Dec. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Dec. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Saturday, May 30, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values For June

MAY'S PERFORMANCE


Further to my post of May 25, the SPX didn't quite reach its potential R1 target of 3095.86 for the month of May. Rather, it hit a high of 3068.88 by month's end and was just 24.57 points shy of that level, as shown on the following monthly chart. It did, however, reach and exceed that level (3 trading days later) on June 3 (3131.40).

However, in my post of May 17, I gave the SPX a 55% chance of moving higher, when its price was 2863.70. Since then, it gained 205.18 points in nine trading days into the end of May.

So, all in all, I'd have to say that the the bulls were a little more than 55% successful in moving this market higher, even though it didn't quite make its R1 target.

JUNE TARGETS


The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of June are based on the high/low/close of the May monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

As of Friday's close, it's well above March, April and May's PP and pierced through February's PP of 3067.86. Price has fought through all of 2018, half of 2019, and well over half of 2020's overhead resistance since the March low, with relatively less (and recent) overhead resistance left to overcome.

R1 sits at 3153.3066, which, together with February's PP of 3067.86, will act as near-term resistance, as well as targets.

The closer the SPX gets to its all-time high at 3393.52, the nearer the Balance of Power will reach an overbought condition. However, that does not automatically mean that it will sell off at that point or that the price can't go much higher. Rather, it may just continue to rally more slowly over time.

Near-term support sits at May's PP at 2959.8833. A drop and hold below that level may see price reach S1 at 2850.8866, or lower.


SUMMARY


We may see, either a pause in direction, or some profit-taking on Monday and beyond, as the markets digest the effects of this past week's riots in Minneapolis and St. Paul, and other cities across America...particularly, with respect to the damages caused to many businesses, as they were set to open in June after the COVID-19 pandemic months' long shutdown.

I hear that many more riots are planned for tonight (Saturday) in at least 50 cities. Who knows if this will spread to other countries, as they're also trying to rebuild their economies caused by the global pandemic...we'll see what happens.

SUNDAY AFTERMATH...CARNAGE...ANARCHY


This link will provide Sunday's update on the violence and mayhem that occurred in the rioting, destruction and looting last night.

Monday, May 25, 2020

SPX Target: 3100 By May 29

* See UPDATES below...

My post of May 21 identified a pivot point resistance value/target (R1) of 3095.86 for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the month of May.

Its S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index counterpart (ES) has almost touched the 3000 level in Monday evening's trading session, as shown on the following daily chart.

There are four trading days left in May for the SPX to reach its R1 value, which coincides with the next technical resistance level of around 3100 for the ES (the median of an uptrending channel converging with overhead price resistance).

The Balance of Power lies with the buyers and Momentum is still on the rise, so I'd give it a 55% chance of making that target...we'll see what happens.

The last time I gave the SPX a 55% chance of moving higher, it was about 100 points lower on May 17, so I'll stick with that percentage for now.




* UPDATE May 30...

The SPX didn't quite reach its potential R1 target of 3095.86 for the month of May. Rather, it hit a high of 3068.88 by month's end and was just 24.57 points shy of that target, as shown on the following monthly chart.

However, in my post of May 17, I gave the SPX a 55% chance of moving higher, when its price was 2863.70. Since then, it gained 205.18 points in nine trading days into the end of May.

So, all in all, I'd have to say that the the bulls were a little more than 55% successful in moving this market higher, even though it didn't quite make its R1 target.


* UPDATE June 3...

The SPX finally reached my 3100 target today, albeit, three day's late, as shown on the following daily chart. In fact, it blew right through it to reach a high of 3131.40.

Its next support and resistance levels/targets are outlined in my post of May 30.

It looks like my crystal ball is in need of an upgrade. 😉


Hong Kong & Chinese Markets Face Economic, Political & Technical Headwinds

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HK50) has been massively underperforming China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) since January 2019, as shown on the following monthly charts.

In fact, the HK50 broke below the bottom of its Andrew's Pitchfork channel in March this year, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world from Wuhan, China and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and untold catastrophic global economic destruction.

Such a channel break usually signals a shift in trend and sentiment from bullish to bearish. In fact, that has already occurred with the formation of lower highs and lows on this monthly timeframe. As well, the Balance of Power has, once again, turned negative.

No doubt, Hong Kong's markets will experience increased trauma, because Beijing announced this past week that they are introducing new national security laws aimed at limiting the rights of Hong Kong's citizens, in violation of the 50-year agreement made between the United Kingdom and China in 1997.

Furthermore, I wouldn't look for China to ramp up its global economic expansion anytime soon, as it turns its focus inward to service domestic markets. China's GDP contracted by 6.8% in Q1 2020, and Beijing, unusually, refused to provide a forecast/target for the remainder of the year.

I expect that these above-referenced headwinds and escalating global tensions with China will, ultimately, negatively impact the SSEC, not only from an economic and political perspective, but also from a technical viewpoint, inasmuch as it's already in downtrend and the Balance of Power is currently under bearish control on this longer-term timeframe.

In this regard, watch for a break and hold below the last swing low on the SSEC at 2440.91 for confirmation of increasing weakness...which will likely drag the HK50 further down, as well.

Major support lies at 17500 for the HK50 and 2000 for the SSEC.



Source: WSJ 

Source: Bloomberg

Thursday, May 21, 2020

How Is Working Remotely (At Home) Virus/Hack-Proof?

A couple of questions that have been on my mind since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, which I've not yet seen asked or answered, are:
  1. How will individuals, working from home for any company, ensure that their home computers are as virus/hack-proof and secure as their business ones?
  2. And, why should customers trust that these companies' platforms or on-line services are safe/secure, as a result?

Source: CNBC

Perhaps investors of FB are also beginning to wonder about those issues, as well, as it's poised to take a tumble after breaking out to new highs, following a gain of almost 60% from its March 18 low.


SPX Pivot Point Values For May

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of May are based on the high/low/close of the April monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

As of Wednesday's close, it's well above March and April's PP and below January and February's PP. Price has fought through all of 2018, half of 2019, and well over half of 2020's overhead resistance since the March low, with relatively less (and recent) overhead resistance left to overcome.

R1 sits at 3095.86, which is slightly above the PP for February's candle at 3067.86. Both of these price levels will act as near-term resistance, as well as targets.

The closer the SPX gets to its all-time high at 3393.52, the nearer the Balance of Power will reach an overbought condition. However, that does not automatically mean that it will sell off at that point or that the price can't go much higher. Rather, it may just continue to rally more slowly over time.

Near-term support sits at April's PP at 2771.67. A drop and hold below that level may see price reach S1 at 2588.25, or lower.


Monday, May 18, 2020

Joe Biden: Out of Touch...Out of Control

* See UPDATES below...

Since Joe Biden announced his candidacy for 2020 President, I've written several articles involving him, which can be read here.

During that time and since my last article, many scandals have surfaced about him.

They're too numerous to mention here, so I'll let the following graphic illustrate some of his shortcomings and challenges that he faces, as he continues to campaign from his basement at home to try and convince voters that his economically-crushing/destructive socialist policies (such as Democrats' Green New Deal) will be of more benefit to all Americans...

versus

...President Trump's conservative policies touting job growth and increased wages, reductions in regulations, returning manufacturing, industry and technology to the U.S., fighting for free and fair trade with other countries, continuing to strengthen his national and international security agenda, continuing to support and promote innovation, freedom, liberty, and prosperity for all, etc...the opposite of what Joe Biden is promising if he's elected President this Fall.


Voters renounced former President Obama's left-leaning policies when they rejected Hillary Clinton and voted for Donald Trump as President in 2016. Joe Biden's policies are so far out in left field, they'd make Obama's look like conservative programs, if enacted.

I can't imagine that Americans are ready to embrace a Venezuela-style of government any time soon, so I think Biden's Presidential bid is a non-starter already...especially as a highly-targeted/focused speedy economic recovery and national security strategies will be the number-one priorites that will need to be implemented to combat the wide-spread and ravaging damages caused, not only in the U.S., but also around the world, by the COVID-19 virus that spread like wildfire from China earlier this year.

The unleashing of a multitude of social programs costing American taxpayers trillions of dollars will not do the job of fixing the crushing economic and national security effects, et al, of that fatal incident. In fact, that's ridiculous. As it is, the U.S. National Debt is exploding, compounded by those effects, the future costs of which will be borne by the youth (taxpayers of the future) that Biden is currently attempting to woo. At the moment, every single taxpayer is on the hook for $203,712.

And, it's only going to get much worse...especially under the crippling political headwinds of a socialist government.


* UPDATE May 24...

It seems like Joe Biden is also out of touch with the African-American community with his comments this week during a radio interview, which angered many of them on the left and the right.

Furthermore, his major policies and laws that he helped craft and pass when he was a Senator years ago (for which he was excoriated by Senators Harris and Booker during the Democrat debates last year, and by others since then) did not benefit African-Americans (as he repeatedly claims). Rather, they were to their detriment.


In his subsequent non-apology "apology," Biden characterized his comments as a "joke"...the word "sorry," however, was notably from that statement.



He's also alienating women with comments like this...by the way, does that mean that whoever votes for him doesn't believe all women, or even any woman who claims they were sexually assaulted or harassed?

Whatever happened to the #MeToo women's movement and the "Believe All Women" mantra when the accused is a Democrat? Those women who began that movement (as well as the liberal media) seemed to have disappeared in this instance and only surface and make their voices heard loud and clear when the accused is a Republican. It would, therefore, appear that such a movement was never a serious one, but only a matter of convenience...and a rather "inconvenient" one for the alleged assaulted/harassed victim.



It seems there may have been some nefarious transactions between Joe Biden and the former Ukrainian President and Attorney General when he was Vice-President, and it appears that this matter is under investigation in the Ukraine.



The Senate is investigating Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, regarding his work in the Ukraine...which may expose Joe Biden's involvement in any nefarious activities, as well.



There are many questions regarding Obama's FBI investigation of the now-debunked Trump campaign-Russia collusion narrative and Biden's involvement in its origins. Those origins and that investigation are under investigation by the Attorney General's office and by the Senate...it's anticipated that those should wrap up sometime later in the summer, so we should learn more at that time.



And, finally (for now), there's Joe Biden's questionable history (then and now) with China.


Do these recent revelations leave much of anything that merit support for Joe Biden for President?

I wonder what shoe will drop next between now and the November Presidential election.

* UPDATE May 31...

Next shoe drop (this follows the last several days of riots across America)...looks like Biden supports rioters over law and order...when will he support old ladies who get beaten up while trying to protect their stores instead of these thugs?


Twitter Link

* UPDATE June 4...

Joe Biden is losing the support of police groups because of his failure to support them during the riots. Hundred of officers have been beaten by rioters and several have been killed...as he stands by and witnesses the U.S. descend into anarchy, while his staffers help bail them out of jail ...


* UPDATE June 12...


* UPDATE June 20...








* UPDATE June 30

A well-written eye-opener, and a must-read, by Victor Davis Hanson...

"He is in a far more dire mental state than a physically failing FDR was in his 1944 campaign for a fourth term."

Source: NationalReview

Sunday, May 17, 2020

U.S. Markets Emerging From Chaos

* See UPDATE below...

The following daily, weekly and monthly charts of the four U.S. E-mini Futures Indices show that they are at the emerging edge of chaos [which is defined by three future-offset moving averages (green 5MA, -3), (red 8MA, -5), and (blue 13MA, -8)].

In all of these three timeframes, the NQ is the strongest and is the most favoured to continue its rally, while the ES is next, followed by the YM and RTY.

In the short term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the daily timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.

In the medium term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the weekly timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.

In the longer term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the monthly timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.

As well, the NQ is the only index that is above both the 50 and 200 moving averages on all three timeframes. These two moving averages pose as resistance or support levels on the YM, ES and RTY on all three timeframes. Look for the YM, ES and RTY to eventually break and hold above both of these moving averages in order to support any further rally and breakout to new record highs by the NQ.

Furthermore, we're about to see a bullish Golden Cross form on the 50 and 200 MAs on the NQ daily timeframe. If that occurs and holds, we'll likely see the rally continue.

If the NQ fails to continue its bullish leadership, we may see all four indices drop to, potentially, new lows, especially if the NQ drops and holds below its 50-week MA (currently at 8245).

YM/ES/NQ/RTY Daily charts

YM/ES/NQ/RTY Weekly charts

YM/ES/NQ/RTY Monthly charts

As of Friday's close, the Balance of Power still rests with the bulls on the SPX, as shown on the monthly chart below.

If the BOP drops and holds below the zero level, that control will switch to the bears on this timeframe, and we may see the SPX drop to around 2675 (the apex of the expanding triangle), or lower.

SPX Monthly chart

The SPX:VIX ratio is holding above 80 and may be headed towards its next resistance level at 100, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

All three technical indicators (RSI, MACD and PMO) are hinting of higher prices for the SPX.

Under that scenario, the RSI should hold above 50, and the MACD and PMO should begin to swing upwards.

SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart

SUMMARY

If I were a betting woman, I'd say that the SPX has around a 55% chance of moving higher over the coming days/weeks, albeit in a choppy and, sometimes, volatile manner.

Keep an eye on the information and charts that I've shown above as potential directional gauges in the days/weeks ahead.

* UPDATE May 18...

Here's how the U.S. Major Indices fared throughout the day and into the close...


SPX Monthly chart

SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart