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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. July 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Aug. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Aug. 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Fri. Aug. 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. Aug. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Sept. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, May 17, 2020

U.S. Markets Emerging From Chaos

* See UPDATE below...

The following daily, weekly and monthly charts of the four U.S. E-mini Futures Indices show that they are at the emerging edge of chaos [which is defined by three future-offset moving averages (green 5MA, -3), (red 8MA, -5), and (blue 13MA, -8)].

In all of these three timeframes, the NQ is the strongest and is the most favoured to continue its rally, while the ES is next, followed by the YM and RTY.

In the short term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the daily timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.

In the medium term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the weekly timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.

In the longer term, watch for all three of the moving averages to curl upwards on the monthly timeframe (with the green above the red above the blue), and for price to break and hold above all of them, to confirm that a sustainable rally is supported.

As well, the NQ is the only index that is above both the 50 and 200 moving averages on all three timeframes. These two moving averages pose as resistance or support levels on the YM, ES and RTY on all three timeframes. Look for the YM, ES and RTY to eventually break and hold above both of these moving averages in order to support any further rally and breakout to new record highs by the NQ.

Furthermore, we're about to see a bullish Golden Cross form on the 50 and 200 MAs on the NQ daily timeframe. If that occurs and holds, we'll likely see the rally continue.

If the NQ fails to continue its bullish leadership, we may see all four indices drop to, potentially, new lows, especially if the NQ drops and holds below its 50-week MA (currently at 8245).

YM/ES/NQ/RTY Daily charts

YM/ES/NQ/RTY Weekly charts

YM/ES/NQ/RTY Monthly charts

As of Friday's close, the Balance of Power still rests with the bulls on the SPX, as shown on the monthly chart below.

If the BOP drops and holds below the zero level, that control will switch to the bears on this timeframe, and we may see the SPX drop to around 2675 (the apex of the expanding triangle), or lower.

SPX Monthly chart

The SPX:VIX ratio is holding above 80 and may be headed towards its next resistance level at 100, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

All three technical indicators (RSI, MACD and PMO) are hinting of higher prices for the SPX.

Under that scenario, the RSI should hold above 50, and the MACD and PMO should begin to swing upwards.

SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart

SUMMARY

If I were a betting woman, I'd say that the SPX has around a 55% chance of moving higher over the coming days/weeks, albeit in a choppy and, sometimes, volatile manner.

Keep an eye on the information and charts that I've shown above as potential directional gauges in the days/weeks ahead.

* UPDATE May 18...

Here's how the U.S. Major Indices fared throughout the day and into the close...


SPX Monthly chart

SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart