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Living In A Time
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Friday, April 30, 2021
Thursday, April 29, 2021
* See UPDATE below...
The historical "mean" value for Twitter (TWTR), sits at 40.00, as shown on the following monthly chart. It's had difficulty holding above that level since its IPO in November of 2013.
In the space of 11 months (from March of 2020), it went from 20.00 to 80.75. During that time, it censored and permanently banned the sitting Republican President of the United States (Donald Trump) from its social media platform, as well as a huge number of Republicans and Conservatives...and alienated half of Americans in the process.
Twitter's leadership is showing no signs of hiding its political and racial bias against half of Americans anytime soon (many of whom are of differing races, ethnicities and religions). That was especially highlighted on Twitter's platform, following President Biden's address to Congress and Republican Senator Tim Scott's rebuttal last night, as described in this Daily Caller article. Several editorial articles assessing the President's speech can be found here and here.
So, what merits this parabolic spike in price in less than a year...apart from a purely speculative FOMO (fear of missing out) buying frenzy?
I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of 40.00, or even major support at 30.00, sometime in the near future, as a consequence of Twitter's embrace of biased "cancel culture."
N.B. This is what happened to TWTR in after-hours trading today, following its release of Q1 earnings and growth outlook...
Tuesday, April 27, 2021
What's Different About Emerging Markets This Time?
With the historical "mean" value of the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) around 30.00, it's had a difficult time attracting barely any interest to sustain a serious rally above 44.00 during its trading tenure, as shown on the following monthly chart.
I'll wager that we'll see price fall back to 44.00, or lower to potentially 36.00, in short order...simply because, what's, fundamentally, different about these markets at the moment, or even in the next 6 or 12 months, that would sustain a push higher from the top of an already-parabolic spike that began a year ago...especially, as it's almost at major resistance (the high of 2007) before it got caught up in the 2008 financial crisis and market crash?
Monday, April 26, 2021
Dr. COPPER's Feverish History
In a nutshell...straight up...straight down.
Is this time any different?
Historical "mean" value is around 2.50, as shown on the following monthly chart, while it's had difficulty remaining above 3.00 and, especially, above 3.50 for any length of time.
What has actually, fundamentally, changed today since March of 2020 that suggests the current sky-high price is warranted and that it will remain so in the long term...versus pure speculation for some kind of uncertain future demand?
While the writing of new political policies may be quick and a knee-jerk reaction to some people's fanciful wishlist and perception of reality, passing them into law and quickly implementing them without cannibalizing and destroying one's economy in the process is another reality.
Dr. Copper is likely caught up in such a feverish drama and headed for a nosedive sometime soon. The question is, will it drop below 3.50, or even 3.00?
Tuesday, April 20, 2021
SPX:VIX Ratio ALERT
If these new MACD and PMO crossovers hold, and if the RSI holds below 50 on this daily SPX:VIX ratio chart, we could see a decent pullback occur in the SPX.
Such a scenario may, also, negatively impact U.S. Bank stocks and ETFs, and, possibly, Bitcoin, as described here.
Saturday, April 10, 2021
US BANKS: Parabolic Blow-off Top Coming?
- in the wake of the Biden administration's spending spree, to date, together with their monumental proposals of rebuilding or "re-imagining" America, post-COVID-19 pandemic, at a cost of $Trillions more (e.g., the "Green New Deal"),
- if negative consequences occur after Biden's proposed tax hikes are passed by Congress,
- as taxpayers try to cope with the rapidly-escalating costs associated with the unprecedented influx of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants flooding across the southern border each month (many of whom have COVID), as well as drug cartels and drugs, gangs, sexual predators, terrorists, and human traffickers, that began post-Biden election and is now described as a humanitarian crisis, a national health crisis, and a national security crisis by border agents, Governors, mayors, and sheriffs of bordering states and towns, as well as members of Congress...attributable to Biden's new border and ICE policies. It's being completely ignored by the President and Vice-President (VP Harris was put in charge of this issue by Biden), and neither one has even bothered to visit the border and speak to these front-line experts about this catastrophe,
- etc., etc., etc.
The National Debt is already over $28 Trillion, and rising fast, especially with President Biden's out-of-control spending agenda, costing trillions of additional dollars.
I can't predict the timing of such an event, or identify it catalyst, but I think we'll see another catastrophic blow-off top happen in the banking sector in the not-too-distant future...judging by the steepness of, and rabidness associated with, the current parabolic spikes. The risk is there..."caveat emptor."
Of note, these three global threats are bubbling in the background and may produce major fireworks sooner than we think. How will Joe Biden respond...indeed?
The following charts show that the rapid increases in the price of these bank ETFs and stocks formed during the full throes of the pandemic, from March 2020 (when the economy, jobs, healthcare, personal spending, etc., tanked, and hundreds of thousands of people died from the virus and other health problems resulting from mass lockdowns across the country and around the world).
Time will tell whether these parabolic price rises were attributable to sound judgement based on assumptions of a quick, sustainable economic rebound, or whether it was shaky speculative investing based on an overestimation of a rapid recovery...e.g., did they invest heavily in Bitcoin (check out the parabolic increase from March 16, 2020 to the high in March of this year..."The Emperor wears no clothes!").
The following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) contains the SPX:VIX ratio in histogram format at the bottom.
Typically, over the past four years, when the price on this ratio reached its current level, the SPX, either paused and consolidated, or pulled back...sometimes dramatically.
Furthermore, the SPX has spiked far above the +5 standard deviation of the long-term uptrending regression channel...a sign of extreme equity frothiness.
Keep an eye on this ratio for clues as to strength or weakness in the SPX in the coming weeks.
* UPDATE July 23, 2022...
The XLF (et al) blowoff began in January, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Near-term suppport sits at 24.00...long-term support lies at 16.00...with 20.00 serving as a median/pivot-support level.
Price has had difficulty remaining above 20.00 since 1999, so, we'll see what happens this time. A sustained breach of this level could be catastrophic for the U.S. banking system and equity markets.
N.B. Read further IMPORTANT DETAILS on banks here.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Buying Resumes in US 10-Year T-Note...But, For How Long?
Over the past several days, buying interest has resumed in US 10-Year T-Notes, after it fell below its long-term uptrend channel median, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Major resistance lies around 134.00, the channel median. A rally and hold above that level could see serious buying push the price to the channel top, currently around 147.00.
Otherwise, failure to retake the median could see price drop down to major support around 121.00, the channel bottom.
Keep an eye on the Balance of Power and Momentum indicators for clues.
MSCI WORLD INDEX: Who's Buying At The Top?
The trajectory is parabolic on this monthly chart of the MSCI World Index, as Momentum begins to waver in the rally that began in February of 2020.
Is this sustainable? FOMO (fear of missing out) buyers may get burned as the exuberance tops out. Keep an eye on momentum for clues.
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX: Who Bought At The Top?
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
Is Coke's Sugar High Over?
* See UPDATES below...
Price on this monthly chart of Coca-Cola (KO) is sitting just below the apex (53.50) of a large diamond pattern...typically a bearish signal.
Failure to rise and remain above this long-term resistance level could see a sizeable pullback, particularly if Coke's customers begin to pull back their buying of (what once was) the "pause that refreshes" soft drink...as Coca-Cola continues its recent political activism against Caucasians and its participation in extreme far-left "out-of-control cancel-culture" actions by individuals and major corporations against Republicans and Conservatives...and, even entire States, e.g., Georgia (one of 23 Republican-controlled states).
"In short, corporate America is making sweeping economic threats to states which pass laws designed to improve election integrity."
|Link to tweet|