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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris Cafe

Paris Cafe

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Fri. Oct. 2 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Tues. Oct. 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Oct. 14 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Oct. 16 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Thurs. Nov. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, August 16, 2020

From This Week's "Smile File"...Words Matter

Can you read this?...

If you cna raed tihs, you hvae a sgtrane mnid too. I cdnuol't blveiee taht I cluod aulactly uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rseheearcr at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are. The olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! If you can raed tihs, SHARE IT!


Wednesday, August 12, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values for August 2020

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of August are based on the high/low/close of the July monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.

The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

The July candle closed on Friday, July 31. At that time, there was only one more PP to overcome...that of the January candle at 3259.31. As of Tuesday's close of the new August candle, it's well above all previous monthly PPs.

R1 sits at 3333.79...Tuesday closed just below at 3333.69...after hitting a high of 3381.70 (just under R2 at 3396.46).

The Balance of Power has been declining since May. It was hovering just above the zero level at the close of the July candle...signalling a potential weakness or lack of conviction in the buying in the ensuing months.

Near-term support sits, firstly, at January's PP at 3259.31, then July's PP at 3217.12. A drop and hold below that level may see price reach S1 at 3154.45, or lower. 

A 10% correction from the recent high would see the SPX reach somewhere around 3,043.53...S2 sits at 3037.78, so that's possible.

The SPX:VIX ratio dropped back below 150, after briefly breaking above and retesting the 200 MA, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

The RSI is threatening to break its recent uptrend, but is still above 50. Both the MACD and PMO indicators are about to form bearish crossovers.

If the RSI breaks and holds below 50, and if the MACD and PMO form bearish crossovers, we may see price retest the 50 MA around 115, or lower to the next major support at 100...all as confirmation that the SPX may drop to its July PP, S1, or even correct by 10% down to S2.

However, if the SPX breaks back and holds above R1 (3333.79), it may retest or overshoot its all-time high of 3393.52. R2 sits at 3396.46

Then, the next major resistance level (R3) is much higher (with only air in between) at 3513.13...so we'd be in for one heck of a bear surprise if that were reached!

I'd venture a guess that things are going to get "interesting" (volatile) this week...one way or the other!


From This Week's "Smile File"...An Economist Is...


An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he/she predicted yesterday did not happen today. 
😊










Saturday, July 18, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values for Week of July 20

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the week of July 20 are based on the high/low/close for the July 13 weekly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each weekly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the weekly chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days and weeks.

On Friday, it closed above the PP for the July 20 week and only remains below the PPs of the weeks of December 23 to February 17...which represents relatively minor resistance, considering that it fought through all of 2018, most of 2019, and most of the 2020 overhead resistance since the March low.

R1 sits at 3265.94 and S1 at 3155.78, which represent near-term resistance and support levels or targets. 

If the SPX holds above this week's PP of 3196.99, there's a good chance it will reach R1, or higher; otherwise, a drop and hold below it could see it hit S1, or lower.


Volatility has dropped off the past couple of weeks, as the SPX:VIX ratio broke above the 100 level, once more, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

Its target is the 200-day moving average around the 150-155 level, which converges with the next level of major price resistance.

The RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators are all bullish, so look for that to continue in order to confirm any further sustainable rally on both the SPX:VIX ratio and the SPX

Otherwise, any hesitation or reversal on these would not bode well for SPX buyers...particularly if the SPX drops and holds below the PP at 3196.99, and, especially, if the Balance of Power flips from buyers to sellers on the weekly timeframe (falls and remains below zero).


China's Predatory Tactics Against US Companies

U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr spoke on July 16 at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum and blasted China's predatory tactics against US companies. Tech companies and Hollywood did not escape criticism.

transcript of the AG's prepared remarks can be read at this link.


China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) dropped below 3300 last week after briefly piercing it, as shown on the following weekly chart.

The sellers have regained control of the Balance of Power on this timeframe.

If the SSEC fails to reclaim and hold above 3300, and if buyers fail to return convincingly, it could drop to around 2800, or so, inasmuch as 3300 seems to be the Bull/Bear line-in-the sand at the moment.


Sunday, July 05, 2020

SPX: Alligator's Jaw Shuts...Higher Prices Ahead?

Further to my post of June 29, the jaw of the William's Alligator has shut and two of the three moving averages (each offset into the future) have re-crossed and turned up, as shown on the following SPX daily chart.

As well, the Awesome Oscillator has flipped above the zero level.

Both of these are hinting that further buying may be in store...I'd need to see the third moving average turn up to confirm potential strength.

However, the Balance of Power is still with the sellers, albeit somewhat tepid, so, unless we see this flip to the buyers on this timeframe, we may be in for a bit more weakness before we see sustained buying resume.

Near-term support sits around 3070. If that's crossed, look for price to, potentially, re-test 3000, or lower.


Price on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart has broken back above 100 and the 50-day moving average, once again.

The RSI has crossed above the 50 level, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the PMO is poised to cross to the upside.

We may see serious buyers step in on the SPX if:
  • price can remain above 3070
  • the AO remains above zero
  • the BOP flips from sellers to buyers
  • the RSI can hold above 50 on the SPX:VIX ratio
  • the MACD can hold its bullish crossover on the SPX:VIX ratio
  • the PMO forms a bullish crossover on the SPX:VIX ratio

Otherwise, we may see some minor selling on the SPX down to the 3000 level, or even a stronger effort to push it much lower toward 2800.


If U.S. Mobs Were Russians Attacking America...

If these U.S. mobs were Russians who were physically attacking American statues, memorials, churches, religious symbols, cities, private property, police, citizens, shop owners, etc., on America's soil, then the Americans in these mobs, as well as Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Adam Schiff, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, and the media would be outraged and asking why the President isn't defending them!

You can't reason with out-of-control mobs, Democrats, and Dem-controlled media!

Twitter link

So, once you're fed up with trying to reason with or please them, there is one final message you can quote that everyone seems to understand...


Then, their mess stays dumped squarely in their laps...they own it! 😏

Monday, June 29, 2020

DANGER: Alligator Crossing on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index

Further to my post of June 21 with respect to the SPX, I'd just mention that the three moving averages (each offset into the future) forming the Williams Alligator on its counterpart S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES) have all crossed to the downside, as shown on the following daily chart.

As well, the Awesome Oscillator has just turned negative in Sunday's overnight trading.

Both of these are signalling potential further weakness ahead.


Price on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart has slipped below 100, once again.

It needs to retake and hold above 100, the RSI needs to rise and hold above 50, and MACD and PMO bullish crossovers need to reform to signal potential sustainable SPX strength.

So, keep an eye on whether these ratio parameters can manifest, together with a rally and hold of the ES above 3075, plus a reversal and uncrossing of the Alligator moving averages to the upside, along with a reversal and hold of the AO above the zero level.

Otherwise, we may see more SPX selling to retest its June low of 2965.66, or lower.


Saturday, June 27, 2020

Twitter Knocked Off Its #1 App Perch

The Twitter app has been knocked off its Number 1 perch, as free speech social media platform Parler has risen to the top to take its place...(many Twitter users are switching to Parler for their town-square style free discussion).






Twitter (TWTR) is still below its IPO opening price of 45.10 (November 7, 2013), as shown on the following monthly chart. In fact, it's 30% below, as shown on the second chart.

The Balance of Power still rests in the hands of sellers as downside Momentum continues to accelerate.

Major support sits somewhere around 20.00, while major resistance is still formed by its IPO opening price of 45.10.

Until we see a reversal (and hold) of both the BOP and MOM above the zero level, I'd expect the selling to continue...while Parler's userbase continues to explode.



Sunday, June 21, 2020

SPX Targets

Further to my post of June 15, the SPX pushed above 3080.20 to reach a high of 3155.53 on Friday, as shown on the daily chart below.

I've shown two Fibonacci Extensions (one taken from the March low and the other taken from the June low), as well as an Andrew's Pitchfork (taken from the March low), and a Williams Alligator (formed by three moving averages, each offset into the future).

There are two areas of price confluence zones (targets) above the current price. The first is a minor confluence zone around the 3250 level (where two of the Fib Extension levels converge). The second is a major confluence zone around 3350 (where two of the Fib Extension levels converge with the bottom of the Andrew's Pitchfork channel).

The SPX closed on Friday just above the upper-most moving average of the Alligator. As well, all three moving averages are either curled upwards or in the process of doing so, hinting of higher prices ahead. I'd like to see the momentum indicator reverse its negative reading and push through and hold above the zero level to confirm any rally higher to either of these price targets in the short term. 

Otherwise, we may see the SPX retest its June low of 2965.66, or lower.


Monday, June 15, 2020

SPX: In The Jaws Of The Alligator

As of today's close, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently in the 'jaws of the alligator' -- Williams Alligator, to be precise, which is formed by three moving averages, each offset into the future -- as shown on the following daily chart.

All three moving averages are curling down and the upper one has just crossed below the middle one...hinting of further weakness ahead.  Today's low touched the lower MA, which roughly converges with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break and hold below today's low of 2964.40, together with the crossing of the middle MA below the lower MA, could send the price down to the next Fibonacci retracement level (40%) at 2835, or even the 50% level at 2712.

Conversely, if today's high of 3080.20 (which is roughly the present level of the crossed upper and middle MAs) is broken and held, we could see the SPX push above the alligator's jaw and retest last week's high at 3233.13, or higher. Watch for the shortest MA to curl upwards, then the other two, to support higher prices.

The momentum indicator (MOM) has risen back above the zero level today. It's important that it remain above zero to support higher prices in the near term.

Saturday, June 06, 2020

Systemic Racism In Canada?

* N.B. Important UPDATE below...

An open letter to Prime Minister Trudeau:

Dear Prime Minister Trudeau,

I hope you receive my following plea in the spirit with which it's intended...to inform you, respectfully, of how I feel about a certain subject.

It seems that you've adopted the phrase "systemic racism in Canada" recently and have used it liberally in your daily press conferences. The context in which you've used it implies that all Canadians are racist, and, therefore, you've taken it upon yourself to lecture us every day that this is wrong.

As a Canadian, I find this kind of generalized rhetoric from anyone to be inflammatory, divisive, and offensive.

I don't know what kind of an upbringing you had or what values were instilled in you as you were growing up, but I can assure you that, as a child of a loving Mother who was widowed when I was very young, I was taught to be kind to others and to treat them as I wished to be treated. She brought me to Church every Sunday to ensure that I had a rounded and complete exposure to life's many offerings. I will only kneel before God and to no other...to do so would be blasphemous for me.

We did not live a life of monetary privilege (nor do I now). On the contrary, my Mom worked hard to put herself through school, raise a family, and to put a roof over our heads and food on the table. Her work ethic was second to none. She taught me to be proud of my accomplishments. She was a great lady and role model, and was the best Mom anyone could have ever had. She passed away just over three decades ago, but she left a wonderful legacy behind, of which I'm extremely proud.

My Mom could have remained bitter because of experiences she'd had as a first-generation child of immigrants from several different countries in the United Kingdom. Her tiny community contained a diverse ethnic population of German, Polish, Ukrainian, Norwegian, Swedish, Scottish and English people. She said that pride in racial origin was likely instilled at home and racial tolerance was unheard of at that time. She recalled being involved in fights with some of the school children on the way home over which race was superior. On one occasion, she was taunted and called a "dirty Englishman" by one boy. She retaliated by calling him a "dirty Norwegian." To emphasize her anger, she threw her lunch pail at him. The pail missed her target and, instead, hit her own sister in the face, which remained cut and bruised for some time. No doubt, she was disciplined at home, because she recalls that ended the name calling.

She went on to become a teacher and worked for decades with underprivileged teenage girls and taught them a variety of occupational skills to enable themselves to work and earn a decent living. She was instrumental in expanding a two-year high school curriculum to a comprehensive four-year program, complete with diploma. Most of her students were from our neighbouring indigenous community and were abused and/or raped and impregnated by their own fathers. She helped give them a badly-needed fresh start in life, as well as emotional and mental support, and, in some instances, sanctuary for a while in our home. Mom was not actively participating in or promoting racism...instead, she was active in stemming the fallout of unjust treatment of her students from within their own culture.

Perhaps because of her own experiences, not once did my Mom mention that I should treat people of one ethnic background any differently, or better or worse, than any other...she made no such distinction. In fact, in the larger community where I grew up, most Canadians were second or third generation, some were first-generation immigrants from other countries, and some were multi-generational indigenous people, who all got along and wanted to create a better life for themselves and their families. We were interested in learning about their countries, cultures, and their experiences...and their food. One year, my teacher in grade school arranged for her students to correspond with pen pals of similar age from Kenya (that was many decades ago, long before social media was even a spark in someone's imagination...we wrote by pen on flimsy blue airmail stationery). I learned a great deal from my pen pal (who was an indigenous African boy) and it was one of the most interesting years of my life. I still remember his name...he had an amazing sense of humour and I always looked forward to his letters.

Living peacefully with our multi-cultural neighbours (near or far) was completely normal for us.

During my adult working life (in a cosmopolitan international city), my workplace enjoyed a thriving and harmonious multi-cultural environment. We worked cohesively to ensure that the fruits of our labour were productive and successful in accordance with our employers' expectations. It would have been totally unnatural and antithetical for any of us to discriminate against our fellow employees on the basis of their culture, ethnicity, or even class. It never crossed our minds to think or act in that way.

I do not hate anyone because of their race...as I wouldn't want to be hated because of my inherited (white) skin colour. It does not give me 'privilege' as some would naively and incorrectly presume and have proclaimed, especially recently. Such a decree automatically debases or subjugates people of a different skin colour to mine...so why would anyone do that and what gives them the right to think that they can? My skin colour has no merit in, either elevating me above or debasing me below, anyone else of a different skin colour. I can't do anything about it and I certainly would never apologize for being the product of my parents' mixed ethnicity. I do not feel guilty for my skin colour. On the contrary, I'm proud of my heritage and ancestors, and I should not, and will not, be disparaged for honouring that part of my background...neither will I allow my ancestors, especially my Mom, to be dishonoured. Nor would I do that to anyone else. And, I, especially, would not enable people to behave that way towards others...no one should be made to feel bad because of their skin colour and heritage. I think it's dangerous to adopt that kind of herd or cult mentality, as it may lead to extremist and hurtful actions.

Mr. Prime Minister, I disagree with your assessment that Canadians are systemically racist...and, you do not speak on my behalf when you say we are. Furthermore, that is my right, as is anyone's (including any leaders of Provinces or municipalities), in a democratic society under which Canada is bound. I have nothing to atone for (I've never worn blackface, nor have I mocked another for his/her race/ethnicity/skin colour) and do not feel it's my duty to atone for anyone else's past behaviours. We all know that each person is responsible for his/her own actions...and that it's up to them to decide what to do about it, if anything.

We all have different life experiences and stories to tell...perhaps we can create a calm and peaceful environment in which to share them some day.

Until then, Mr. Trudeau, please stop calling all of us systemically racist. If there are problems, take the appropriate action and work calmly with people to address those specific concerns. For example, perhaps work with single-parent families and arrange for their kids to be paired with a Big Brother or a Big Sister, if those organizations still exist and are safe.

There must be many solutions that can be discovered if people are instilled with the confidence and are inspired to do so. Perhaps they can overcome their feelings of being marginalized if they are partnered with others (or mentors) who will help them in their journey to a better and more peaceful life.

Conversely, wrongly generalizing and labelling everyone (albeit, perhaps, inadvertently) day after day will not do the trick. It will only inflame that situation, create unnecessary tensions for all people, and will please or satisfy no one. All groups of differing ethnicities will be left feeling marginalized and placed in a lose-lose situation that's guaranteed to fail.

Should we not try and find common ground with others to celebrate, instead of highlighting and demonizing our differences? I think that most people are inherently good and want the best for themselves and others.

We know that there is some discrimination in all areas and aspects of society, not just based on race, that people have been grappling with for decades, e.g.,
  • physical violence and sexual abuse against, and the exploitation and human trafficking of, women and children (of all colours). I doubt whether they've felt very 'privileged' during those attacks or unlawful confinements. By the way, when women and children call 911 for help against their attackers, they want police to rescue them and arrest their assailants, not be met by a social worker who is untrained and unskilled in such events! To prevent police from helping women and girls in such situations is misogynistic, sexist and cruel...after all, women are taxpayers who pay for police protection, so do not deny them that right!
  • lesser-publicized ageism against seniors (of all colours), particularly low-income seniors. No one is marching in the streets on our behalf to advocate for the provision of adequate government pensions to cover the rising costs of housing (rent), medical services (optometry visits and eye care, dental visits and procedures, chiropractor and physio treatments) and prescriptions, as well as other goods and services, or is shouting through bullhorns to insist that proper protection and care be provided for those seniors who have been abused and maltreated in long-term care homes for decades. That situation was exacerbated during the COVID-19 crisis shutdown, when family members were banned from visiting and providing their usual additional assistance and care for their loved ones. Some of these seniors may be war or peace-keeping veterans who've fought against tyranny and racism in other countries on our behalf. I doubt whether those seniors have felt very 'privileged' in these homes...and I doubt whether others, who are grappling with deciding whether to allocate more funds from their pensions towards food and housing or towards prescriptions and other medical needs, feel very 'privileged.'
  • the stigma of addiction -- whether it be to drugs (street or prescription), alcohol, food, etc. -- and the crippling feelings of isolation and despair that it brings to those afflicted, as well as the physical toll that these wreak on their bodies...e.g., the debilitating after-effects of near-death experiences, as well as death, itself. Once that stigma is applied to any one person (regardless of their colour, age, gender, and socioeconomic status), it never leaves and they are left to the judgements and whims of those with whom they come into contact...not all of those judgements and whims are pleasant. I doubt whether those desperate and in need of understanding and help in recovering feel very 'privileged.'
  • the stigma of physical and mental disabilities (afflicting people of all colours, ages, socioeconomic status, and gender). They are not only dealing with the limitations, themselves, but also the the frustrations caused by them. As with those suffering from addiction, not all of their interactions with others are pleasant. I doubt whether they feel very 'privileged.'

These are but a few examples of many sectors of society that bear some type of discrimination, or another.

Resolution of issues involving all types of discrimination comes from calm and respectful discussions, while maintaining open, attentive minds and ears and a closed mouth, in order to fully hear and understand each person/group's viewpoint. It won't happen if it's approached with a biased, accusatory attitude.

The key to success is having the desire to actively resolve, not tear apart or dismantle, conflict. Otherwise, the many bits that make up the whole of an issue get lost in the process and the situation remains unresolved. One method of conflict resolution that can be tried is described below.

But first, the actual issue that needs to be resolved must be correctly identified before it can be tackled. For example, perhaps the main issue of the excessive use of police force is not based, solely, on race, but encompasses a range of factors. (Presumably, any unwarranted or unlawful excessive use of force against any racial group is never acceptable...PERIOD). All of those potential factors would need to be uncovered by not limiting them to only one possibility at the outset...that of racial bias or discrimination. Otherwise, any hope for a successful reconciliation of the problem, in its entirety, is doomed for failure if it's hamstrung by such a narrow scope.

Equally, applying a 'knee-jerk-quick-fix' remedy such as "defunding the police" is no remedy at all...it does not fully address the problem...it would only exacerbate it and allow for more violence against the innocent and the nation, as a whole. Don't forget, all elected officials work FOR Canadians and have a duty to provide adequate security FOR their citizens, as does the Prime Minister who has a fiduciary responsibility for national security FOR the entire country. Currently, every Canadian citizen pays for police protection through their taxes, so they have the constitutional right to that protection...you may not, all of a sudden, relinquish your duty and deny Canadians that right!

In other words, be clear about what it is that you're trying to resolve and improve...and you're more likely to be successful. You may be surprised that the results were not quite what you expected. In fact, it's better to be devoid of any expectations on the outcome in order to avoid tainting the process.

Thanks for listening and for having the interest of all Canadians in mind as you tackle a whole multitude of issues on our behalf. It must be exhausting and, hopefully, rewarding, as well. Please know that I appreciate your commitment and dedication to all of us in this regard.

I think that most of us like to feel appreciated, rather than be shamed for something that all of us are not...especially my late Mom. 

Please do not vilify all Canadians because of a few bad apples...doing so will destroy the morale of the nation in a heartbeat. 

In closing, there are many good people in our country...and in the various police forces across Canada. It's my sincere hope that we hear more of that, along with their stories, for balance, for inspiration and for aspiration.

Have a great weekend and stay safe and healthy.

Best regards,
Candy Matheson


~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Art of Conflict Resolution


Just as there is a process into which an artist immerses himself/herself before creating a masterpiece, there is also a process that can be followed for people to resolve conflicts.

The next time you're about to have a "discussion" with someone who may have a differing opinion than you about an issue, you may want to ask him/her if they would like to:
  • be clear about the issue,
  • accurately identify and agree upon what you're both trying to achieve, and
  • effectively resolve an issue to your mutual satisfaction.

If he/she is willing, then it may be helpful if you both take a few moments to use the flow chart below to map out exactly what each of you desires...write out your answers separately, then compare notes. You're both more likely to resolve your situation or issue on a "win-win" basis if you both completely understand each other's points of view and desires. 

Resolving your issue may end up with you both simply "agreeing to disagree," respectfully, then moving on, with no hard feelings toward each other...you will likely develop a deeper relationship, as a result...a better place to be, rather than further apart, wouldn't you agree? And, you would both end up creating your own "masterpiece."

N.B. While you're discussing the issue, you may find that other issues surface...set those aside to deal with another time, using this method...stick to one issue at a time for best results.


P.S. If you're wrestling with several options or paths to follow on a single issue that involves only yourself, you can also use the above approach and play "devil's advocate" (take both sides) in order to decide which option/path would be best for you to implement.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

* UPDATE July 20...

Just when I thought I'd heard it all, this video clip surfaced today...it actually confirms what I said above about the effort to defund the police being misogynistic, sexist and cruel to women and girls.

Only this time it can also be applied to what Democrats want in America...case in point is Minnesota Democrat Attorney General Keith Ellison saying that he doesn't want police officers to respond to rape!

Check out the looks on the faces of both women...they can't even face him as he makes these stunning remarks! Shame on him!

Does this not signal that their endgame is to decriminalize rape as an offence...and who knows what else?

Women and girls have a right to be disgusted by and push back on such stupid, reckless and harmful policies and the people who suggest them!


WAKE UP, WOMEN...AND DEMAND YOUR RIGHTS AND POLICE PROTECTION!



Source: GOP War Room


Monday, June 01, 2020

RIOTS IN AMERICA

* See UPDATES below...

This is an excerpt from my summary in Saturday's post related to the days-old riots currently raging in cities across America with respect to the death of George Floyd on May 25...

"We may see, either a pause in direction, or some profit-taking on Monday and beyond, as the markets digest the effects of this past week's riots in Minneapolis and St. Paul, and other cities across America...particularly, with respect to the damages caused to many businesses, as they were set to open in June after the COVID-19 pandemic months' long shutdown.

I hear that many more riots are planned for tonight (Saturday) in at least 50 cities. Who knows if this will spread to other countries, as they're also trying to rebuild their economies caused by the global pandemic...we'll see what happens."

Officer Derek Chauvin (left) and George Floyd (right)

Here's what, subsequently, happened Saturday night, and beyond...

Saturday, May 30, 2020

SPX Pivot Point Values For June

MAY'S PERFORMANCE


Further to my post of May 25, the SPX didn't quite reach its potential R1 target of 3095.86 for the month of May. Rather, it hit a high of 3068.88 by month's end and was just 24.57 points shy of that level, as shown on the following monthly chart. It did, however, reach and exceed that level (3 trading days later) on June 3 (3131.40).

However, in my post of May 17, I gave the SPX a 55% chance of moving higher, when its price was 2863.70. Since then, it gained 205.18 points in nine trading days into the end of May.

So, all in all, I'd have to say that the the bulls were a little more than 55% successful in moving this market higher, even though it didn't quite make its R1 target.

JUNE TARGETS


The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of June are based on the high/low/close of the May monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

As of Friday's close, it's well above March, April and May's PP and pierced through February's PP of 3067.86. Price has fought through all of 2018, half of 2019, and well over half of 2020's overhead resistance since the March low, with relatively less (and recent) overhead resistance left to overcome.

R1 sits at 3153.3066, which, together with February's PP of 3067.86, will act as near-term resistance, as well as targets.

The closer the SPX gets to its all-time high at 3393.52, the nearer the Balance of Power will reach an overbought condition. However, that does not automatically mean that it will sell off at that point or that the price can't go much higher. Rather, it may just continue to rally more slowly over time.

Near-term support sits at May's PP at 2959.8833. A drop and hold below that level may see price reach S1 at 2850.8866, or lower.


SUMMARY


We may see, either a pause in direction, or some profit-taking on Monday and beyond, as the markets digest the effects of this past week's riots in Minneapolis and St. Paul, and other cities across America...particularly, with respect to the damages caused to many businesses, as they were set to open in June after the COVID-19 pandemic months' long shutdown.

I hear that many more riots are planned for tonight (Saturday) in at least 50 cities. Who knows if this will spread to other countries, as they're also trying to rebuild their economies caused by the global pandemic...we'll see what happens.

SUNDAY AFTERMATH...CARNAGE...ANARCHY


This link will provide Sunday's update on the violence and mayhem that occurred in the rioting, destruction and looting last night.

Monday, May 25, 2020

SPX Target: 3100 By May 29

* See UPDATES below...

My post of May 21 identified a pivot point resistance value/target (R1) of 3095.86 for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the month of May.

Its S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index counterpart (ES) has almost touched the 3000 level in Monday evening's trading session, as shown on the following daily chart.

There are four trading days left in May for the SPX to reach its R1 value, which coincides with the next technical resistance level of around 3100 for the ES (the median of an uptrending channel converging with overhead price resistance).

The Balance of Power lies with the buyers and Momentum is still on the rise, so I'd give it a 55% chance of making that target...we'll see what happens.

The last time I gave the SPX a 55% chance of moving higher, it was about 100 points lower on May 17, so I'll stick with that percentage for now.




* UPDATE May 30...

The SPX didn't quite reach its potential R1 target of 3095.86 for the month of May. Rather, it hit a high of 3068.88 by month's end and was just 24.57 points shy of that target, as shown on the following monthly chart.

However, in my post of May 17, I gave the SPX a 55% chance of moving higher, when its price was 2863.70. Since then, it gained 205.18 points in nine trading days into the end of May.

So, all in all, I'd have to say that the the bulls were a little more than 55% successful in moving this market higher, even though it didn't quite make its R1 target.


* UPDATE June 3...

The SPX finally reached my 3100 target today, albeit, three day's late, as shown on the following daily chart. In fact, it blew right through it to reach a high of 3131.40.

Its next support and resistance levels/targets are outlined in my post of May 30.

It looks like my crystal ball is in need of an upgrade. 😉


Hong Kong & Chinese Markets Face Economic, Political & Technical Headwinds

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HK50) has been massively underperforming China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) since January 2019, as shown on the following monthly charts.

In fact, the HK50 broke below the bottom of its Andrew's Pitchfork channel in March this year, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world from Wuhan, China and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and untold catastrophic global economic destruction.

Such a channel break usually signals a shift in trend and sentiment from bullish to bearish. In fact, that has already occurred with the formation of lower highs and lows on this monthly timeframe. As well, the Balance of Power has, once again, turned negative.

No doubt, Hong Kong's markets will experience increased trauma, because Beijing announced this past week that they are introducing new national security laws aimed at limiting the rights of Hong Kong's citizens, in violation of the 50-year agreement made between the United Kingdom and China in 1997.

Furthermore, I wouldn't look for China to ramp up its global economic expansion anytime soon, as it turns its focus inward to service domestic markets. China's GDP contracted by 6.8% in Q1 2020, and Beijing, unusually, refused to provide a forecast/target for the remainder of the year.

I expect that these above-referenced headwinds and escalating global tensions with China will, ultimately, negatively impact the SSEC, not only from an economic and political perspective, but also from a technical viewpoint, inasmuch as it's already in downtrend and the Balance of Power is currently under bearish control on this longer-term timeframe.

In this regard, watch for a break and hold below the last swing low on the SSEC at 2440.91 for confirmation of increasing weakness...which will likely drag the HK50 further down, as well.

Major support lies at 17500 for the HK50 and 2000 for the SSEC.



Source: WSJ 

Source: Bloomberg

Thursday, May 21, 2020

How Is Working Remotely (At Home) Virus/Hack-Proof?

A couple of questions that have been on my mind since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, which I've not yet seen asked or answered, are:
  1. How will individuals, working from home for any company, ensure that their home computers are as virus/hack-proof and secure as their business ones?
  2. And, why should customers trust that these companies' platforms or on-line services are safe/secure, as a result?

Source: CNBC

Perhaps investors of FB are also beginning to wonder about those issues, as well, as it's poised to take a tumble after breaking out to new highs, following a gain of almost 60% from its March 18 low.


SPX Pivot Point Values For May

The pivot point support/resistant values/targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the entire month of May are based on the high/low/close of the April monthly candle, as shown on the following pivot point calculator.


The PP of each monthly candle is depicted as a blue cross on the chart of the SPX below.

You can see, at a glance, where the current price is relative to those...giving an indication as to its relative strength/weakness as the price moves above/below each one in the coming days/weeks/months.

As of Wednesday's close, it's well above March and April's PP and below January and February's PP. Price has fought through all of 2018, half of 2019, and well over half of 2020's overhead resistance since the March low, with relatively less (and recent) overhead resistance left to overcome.

R1 sits at 3095.86, which is slightly above the PP for February's candle at 3067.86. Both of these price levels will act as near-term resistance, as well as targets.

The closer the SPX gets to its all-time high at 3393.52, the nearer the Balance of Power will reach an overbought condition. However, that does not automatically mean that it will sell off at that point or that the price can't go much higher. Rather, it may just continue to rally more slowly over time.

Near-term support sits at April's PP at 2771.67. A drop and hold below that level may see price reach S1 at 2588.25, or lower.


Monday, May 18, 2020

Joe Biden: Out of Touch...Out of Control

* See UPDATES below...

Since Joe Biden announced his candidacy for 2020 President, I've written several articles involving him, which can be read here.

During that time and since my last article, many scandals have surfaced about him.

They're too numerous to mention here, so I'll let the following graphic illustrate some of his shortcomings and challenges that he faces, as he continues to campaign from his basement at home to try and convince voters that his economically-crushing/destructive socialist policies (such as Democrats' Green New Deal) will be of more benefit to all Americans...

versus

...President Trump's conservative policies touting job growth and increased wages, reductions in regulations, returning manufacturing, industry and technology to the U.S., fighting for free and fair trade with other countries, continuing to strengthen his national and international security agenda, continuing to support and promote innovation, freedom, liberty, and prosperity for all, etc...the opposite of what Joe Biden is promising if he's elected President this Fall.


Voters renounced former President Obama's left-leaning policies when they rejected Hillary Clinton and voted for Donald Trump as President in 2016. Joe Biden's policies are so far out in left field, they'd make Obama's look like conservative programs, if enacted.

I can't imagine that Americans are ready to embrace a Venezuela-style of government any time soon, so I think Biden's Presidential bid is a non-starter already...especially as a highly-targeted/focused speedy economic recovery and national security strategies will be the number-one priorites that will need to be implemented to combat the wide-spread and ravaging damages caused, not only in the U.S., but also around the world, by the COVID-19 virus that spread like wildfire from China earlier this year.

The unleashing of a multitude of social programs costing American taxpayers trillions of dollars will not do the job of fixing the crushing economic and national security effects, et al, of that fatal incident. In fact, that's ridiculous. As it is, the U.S. National Debt is exploding, compounded by those effects, the future costs of which will be borne by the youth (taxpayers of the future) that Biden is currently attempting to woo. At the moment, every single taxpayer is on the hook for $203,712.

And, it's only going to get much worse...especially under the crippling political headwinds of a socialist government.


* UPDATE May 24...

It seems like Joe Biden is also out of touch with the African-American community with his comments this week during a radio interview, which angered many of them on the left and the right.

Furthermore, his major policies and laws that he helped craft and pass when he was a Senator years ago (for which he was excoriated by Senators Harris and Booker during the Democrat debates last year, and by others since then) did not benefit African-Americans (as he repeatedly claims). Rather, they were to their detriment.


In his subsequent non-apology "apology," Biden characterized his comments as a "joke"...the word "sorry," however, was notably from that statement.



He's also alienating women with comments like this...by the way, does that mean that whoever votes for him doesn't believe all women, or even any woman who claims they were sexually assaulted or harassed?

Whatever happened to the #MeToo women's movement and the "Believe All Women" mantra when the accused is a Democrat? Those women who began that movement (as well as the liberal media) seemed to have disappeared in this instance and only surface and make their voices heard loud and clear when the accused is a Republican. It would, therefore, appear that such a movement was never a serious one, but only a matter of convenience...and a rather "inconvenient" one for the alleged assaulted/harassed victim.



It seems there may have been some nefarious transactions between Joe Biden and the former Ukrainian President and Attorney General when he was Vice-President, and it appears that this matter is under investigation in the Ukraine.



The Senate is investigating Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, regarding his work in the Ukraine...which may expose Joe Biden's involvement in any nefarious activities, as well.



There are many questions regarding Obama's FBI investigation of the now-debunked Trump campaign-Russia collusion narrative and Biden's involvement in its origins. Those origins and that investigation are under investigation by the Attorney General's office and by the Senate...it's anticipated that those should wrap up sometime later in the summer, so we should learn more at that time.



And, finally (for now), there's Joe Biden's questionable history (then and now) with China.


Do these recent revelations leave much of anything that merit support for Joe Biden for President?

I wonder what shoe will drop next between now and the November Presidential election.

* UPDATE May 31...

Next shoe drop (this follows the last several days of riots across America)...looks like Biden supports rioters over law and order...when will he support old ladies who get beaten up while trying to protect their stores instead of these thugs?


Twitter Link

* UPDATE June 4...

Joe Biden is losing the support of police groups because of his failure to support them during the riots. Hundred of officers have been beaten by rioters and several have been killed...as he stands by and witnesses the U.S. descend into anarchy, while his staffers help bail them out of jail ...


* UPDATE June 12...


* UPDATE June 20...








* UPDATE June 30

A well-written eye-opener, and a must-read, by Victor Davis Hanson...

"He is in a far more dire mental state than a physically failing FDR was in his 1944 campaign for a fourth term."

Source: NationalReview