WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Fall

Fall

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Nov. 3 ~ U.S. Presidential Election
* Tues. Nov. 17 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Nov. 25 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. Nov. 26 ~ U.S. Markets closed for Thanksgiving Holiday
* Fri. Nov. 27 @ 1:00 pm ET ~ U.S. Markets closed for Thanksgiving Holiday/Black Friday
* Wed. Dec. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 4 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. Dec. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Dec. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Thurs. Dec. 24 @ 1:00 pm ET ~ U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Holiday
* Fri. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Holiday

*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

'Trumpenomics' Shatters Glass Ceiling: Dow 30 Hits 30,000

The success of President Trump's First-Term economic policies and programs, including Operation Warp Speed, were reflected in US markets today. The Dow 30 Index smashed through 30,000, setting an all-time record high! 

The Balance of Power lies with buyers...in fact, it also hit a record high today. 

With no overhead resistance, buyers are free to continue this bull run.




Friday, November 13, 2020

From This Week's "Smile File"...Nancy Pelosi's Friday the 13th

😏 I wonder how the rest of her day will go?

Link to tweet & video

Whoops...😮

Link to tweet & video

Link to tweet


S&P 500 Index At A Major Inflection Point

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has breached, once again, the outermost deviation band of the Regression Channel (+5 standard deviation), which has its beginnings at the March 2009 low, as shown on the following monthly chart. So far, it hasn't been able to sustain a move higher.

It's either going to enter a new hyper-bullish phase to, potentially, spike sharply to parabolic heights, or pull back to somewhere around, either a confluence of the 20 MA with the +2 deviation level around 3100ish, or to a confluence of the 50 MA with the Regression Channel median around 2800ish.

Either way, the move could be swift.

In my post of November 8, I mentioned that buyers were in control of the MSCI World Market Index, based on a monthly timeframe. Its price was 2470.05 (Friday November 6).

The upside target I identified was around 2600. The next day it hit a high of 2546.16 before pulling back to close at 2502.06, as shown on the following daily chart. It's been trying to retest that high for the past three days, without success. The Balance of Power has flipped from buyers to sellers on this short-term timeframe

This may be a warning of weakening interest and a possible pullback in the SPX, as well as other global indices. Keep an eye on the MSCI World Market Index for clues in the short term.


Monday, November 09, 2020

"ZOOM" In..."ZOOM" Out!

Good news was announced today by Pfizer for a possible COVID-19 vaccine...more data will be assembled, then submitted to the FDA for approval in December. 

The research, development, and distribution of vaccines by Pfizer and other companies was established by the Trump administration's COVID-19 Task Force and fast-tracked under their 'Operation Warp Speed' program.

Link to tweet/article

Link to tweet/article


Link to tweet/article


Link to both of Frank's tweets & threads


Bad news for Zoom (ZM).

I'm not surprised it's plunged after its 735% parabolic rise in just 10 months this year! Remember what happened to Bitcoin?

We'll see what happens by the end of the year.


Bitcoin refresher...


Sunday, November 08, 2020

Buyers in Control of the MSCI World Market Index

I last wrote about the MSCI World Market Index in my post of December 24, 2019.

Since then, it surpassed its resistance level of 2340 and is sitting at 2470.05, as shown on the following monthly chart.

The Balance of Power lies in the hands of buyers on this timeframe, as price is set to break out above its high of 2500.32 to new all-time highs...provided that Momentum (MOM) continues to rise.

Its next major resistance level lies at the top edge of the Andrew's Pitchfork channel around 2600.

For clues on global market direction and strength, keep an eye on the RSI on the following basket of global market indices. As long as it keeps rising over the coming days and weeks, we may see the 2600 target achieved in the medium-to-longer term, or even by the end of 2020.

As well, the tug-of-war situation that I described in my post of October 26 between China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is worth monitoring, in this respect. The SPX is now sitting just above its former resistance level of 3500, while the SSEC remains around 100 points below its resistance price of 3400. Keep an eye on how this develops for the remainder of the year (and beyond) for additional hints as to the viability of further buying in the MSCI World Market Index.


2024 Presidential Election Teaser

 "We'll see what happens." -- President Donald J. Trump

Link to tweet


Saturday, November 07, 2020

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: It's Not Over Yet

Contrary to what the media has just announced, Joe Biden has NOT yet been officially declared the President-elect, as he has not yet been certified as the winner of any state. There are still ballots to be counted, numerous recounts to be done, and pending court cases to be litigated and settled before that can happen.

As former President Obama said post-2016 election, "There is only one President at a time." 

At the moment, President Trump will remain President until noon on January 20, 2021...and beyond, if re-elected.

Link to tweet

Important details revealed below...

Friday, November 06, 2020

Karma Bites: Nancy Pelosi

"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is struggling to keep her members happy after the party's meager performance during Tuesday's election."

She attracted this mess to her party following their 2020 Presidential campaign rhetoric and policies...KARMA!

Important details revealed below...

Thursday, November 05, 2020

SUPREME COURT & IMPEACHMENT SHENANIGANS: Prescient Article?

Based on what transpired with the recent (contentious) confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, it looks like the assumptions that I made in my post of October 1, 2019 (and the others referenced therein) may have, in fact, been accurate.

Link to my full article

"There's nothing in the Constitution 
that says the President stops 
being President in his last year."

If true for Obama, then it must be so for Trump.


Integrity


Helpful hint to bear in mind on that journey...


Friday, October 30, 2020

290 Years Vs. 47 Months: More of the same from whom?...

 America's choice on November 3rd...

Former Vice-President Joe Biden, et al
290 Aggregate Years of 6 Democrats in US Government
(including time spent in local politics)

House Speaker #PelosiTheRipper disrespected all of these 
people who were honoured by the President 
in his 2020 State of the Union speech...

by ripping up their distinguished legacies...
shameful!
She should have been censured by the House and resigned in disgrace.


OR
Link to article

Trump promises made...promises kept...and kept and kept and kept.

Trump supporters
October 31, 2020



Monday, October 26, 2020

The 2020 China/USA Hedge & the US Presidential Election

* See UPDATE below...

I've been writing about the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on world markets for much of the year. My post of April 27 outlined information on the origins of the virus (what little was known at that time) and its spread from China to the rest of the world. It highlighted China's gross lack of transparency toward world leaders and their scientists, destruction of world economies, wilful negligence, and world-wide destruction of human life caused by the virus. 

I asked which foreign investors were willing to buy into China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) to further prop up the CCP regime, bearing in mind that China did nothing to assist foreign leaders in their mad dash to find any information about the virus and how to mitigate its effects and contain the spread.

The US began its mandatory lock-down of its states in March. Unemployment skyrocketed...but has been declining steadily, to date, to a level just below the worst numbers posted during the 2008/09 financial crisis.

US Unemployment Rate

Judging from the (essentially) steady buying, to date, that began in China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) in February, it appears that many investors did put their money to work in China...regardless of China's culpability in this matter.

SSEC Monthly

Conversely, investors began buying the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in April, following the panic sell-off that began in February.

SPX Monthly

Both the SSEC and the SPX are at levels just below their respective near-term major resistance levels (3400 for the SSEC and 3500 for the SPX). The US Presidential election is fast-approaching (November 3).

It looks as though investors have hedged their bets by buying into both markets. It seems that some are betting that former Vice-President Joe Biden would win the presidency (a win for China and the SSEC, due to his pro-China stance), while others are betting that President Trump would win a second term (a win for the United States and the SPX, due to his tougher stance on China).

Keep an eye on the SPX:VIX ratio. Following a bullish moving average Golden Cross formation near the end of September, price is caught in between the 50 and 200 MAs, but has been rising the past several days.

Should we see the RSI rise and hold above 50, and the MACD and PMO indicators reform bullish crossovers, we should see this ratio recapture the 150 level. 

Under such a scenario, look for the SPX to retest its recent all-time high of 3588.12 and, possibly, move higher...marking a second-term win for President Trump, in my opinion.

SPX:VIX Ratio Daily

So, to quote President Trump, "We'll see what happens!"


* UPDATE October 29...

Blowout US Q3 GDP numbers were released today (Source: Forexfactory.com)...a big win for President Trump and his overall financial and economic policies, as well as his massive fast-tracked COVID-19 health and economic/financial assistance/stimulus and recovery policies and programs.

'Operation Warp Speed' is one of many COVID-19 programs currently underway "to produce and deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccines with the initial doses available by January 2021, as part of a broader strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics (collectively known as countermeasures)."

I see no reason not to be optimistic for a strong Q4 GDP finish, as well...assuming a second-term win for President Trump and the continuation of all his above-noted policies and programs.

US 2020 Q3 GDP
(unprecedented)

US 2020 Q3 GDP PRICE INDEX
(the highest reached since Oct. 2008)


By the way, it's worth noting (for perspective) where the COVID-19 pandemic sits on the following graphic depicting a comparison of deaths by various pandemics as a percentage of the global population at the time. 

With the massive world-wide research and resources that are currently being employed toward mitigating and eradicating the effects of this virus, I'd hope that this percentage would remain small, in comparison, over the months to come.




Friday, October 23, 2020

TGIF! (not a good week for Joe...)

Joe Biden seemed anxious to escape during the final U.S. Presidential debate last night and return to his basement in preparation for, in his own words, a "Dark Winter"...meaning this???

Joe's "doom and gloom" message for America was not uplifting, inspiring or hope-filled..any hopes for fun were dashed soundly under his proposed policies. Christmas is coming, but you wouldn't know it...not even a lump of coal would be found in stockings with his plans to ban coal and fossil fuels. 


Exactly who and what are voters voting for, Joe?

C'mon Joe!

Final U.S. Presidential Debate 2020
Joe Biden


Monday, October 05, 2020

U.S. Markets In One Word: Indecision

And, unlikely to resolve before the November 3rd Presidential election. Until then, 3350 is a key support/resistance level to monitor. Chaos and higher volatility lie below that price within the jaws of the "alligator."

SPX weekly