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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. May 23 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Possible 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Target for the SPX

Each candle on the SPX chart below represents 1/4 of one year. 

Further to my post of June 27th, and, as shown on the following updated 20-Year Quarterly chart of the SPX, the 2016 Q2 candle closed today at a higher level than -- on what was a previously potential bearish hanging man -- the Q1 candle. This bearish reversal warning was not confirmed.

Instead, what we're left with, at the moment, is a wide-range high-base consolidation for the past 6 quarters, with price now near all-time highs.


As shown on the following 20-Year Monthly chart of the SPX, a solid breakout and hold to the upside of this large range could produce a rally to a confluence of the top of a long-term channel and a 200% Fibonacci Extension level of 2280 (yellow) by roughly October of this year, and, eventually, another confluence of the channel top and a 200% External Fibonacci level of 2485 (blue) by approximately December 2017.

That's a very bullish scenario and one that may take quite a bit longer to play out, with, possibly, a lot more volatility sprinkled into the mix than what I've shown...anything can happen between now and then, but the potential is there, nonetheless.