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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Sunday, June 26, 2011

Fibs again...but with a twist of psychology...

My previous posts on June 23 and 4 referred to the Weekly charts of YM, ES, NQ & TF and the 23.6% Fibonacci level:

As I looked at these charts again this morning, I noticed that this Fib level co-incides roughly with the level that the YM, ES & TF were at just before their very sharp decline in September 2008. It may be necessary for these e-mini futures to retest this level and establish a credible support area from which a meaningful and viable advance can once again resume with market confidence (preferably without government interference). If this level were to be retested, the NQ would have to pull back to its 38.2% Fib level. If such a scenario were to occur, price may bounce around in between the 50sma (red) and 200sma (pink) before re-establishing a new Weekly trend. BTW, the 200sma on the TF presently sits just below the 666 level mentioned in my post below:

Since psychology plays such a big role in trading, this reasoning may make some sense. I realize there are a lot of other factors in day-to-day market psychology, and this is just one potential factor that may (or may not) come into play. I am open to trading market reactions to various events as they unfold...it pays to have one's radar tuned in...and, accordingly, my stop loss is always set as I daytrade...gives me a chance to get out my "Trading for Dummies" handbook to see if I've done the right thing...   :-)