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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Friday, April 13, 2018

Friday the 13th Major Sector Winners & Losers: Energy & Financials May Hold the Key

* See UPDATES below...

With an input value of one day, the rate-of-change indicator shows which of the following 9 Major Sectors gained/lost the fastest in today's action (2-month and 1-year daily charts below).

In this regard and in particular, watch for any continued strength in Energy (XLE) and any continued weakness in Financials (XLF) next week and beyond, which may equate to equity weakness, in general.

The monthly chart below of WTIC Crude Oil shows a longer-term view of price action, particularly with respect to a large reverse Head & Shoulders pattern that has been developing since the end of 2014.

It appears to be headed toward its first resistance at 72.36 (40% Fibonacci retracement), and potentially its next one around 80.00 (price and downtrend line convergence). The momentum indicator is in uptrend on this timeframe. Watch for a hold above major support at 60.00.

Conversely, XLF is in danger of dropping back to its major support level at 24.00, as it has failed to make a new all-time high recently, as shown on the following monthly chart. In fact, it was rejected at a 200% Fibonacci level on its long-term upward-trending Andrew's Pitchfork channel and is sitting right on the outside edge of the top of that channel.

Its downward momentum has accelerated and is hovering just above the zero level. Watch for a drop and hold below zero on any further price weakness as an indication that 24.00 may eventually be retested, which happens to converge with the channel median, at the moment.

* UPDATE April 18...

The following monthly and daily charts of WTIC Crude Oil show that price continues to rise towards its potential 80.00 target (defined by the upper edge of its Fibonacci channel and price resistance level), along with higher swing highs on both its momentum and relative volatility index technical indicators (additional tools to use in monitoring sustainability of its current uptrend).

* UPDATE April 20 @ 2:15 pm ET...

Oil is hanging in there (daily chart below) at short-term uptrend resistance. A higher swing high on the momentum indicator confirms short-term strength...will see where it closes today...

* N.B. 
  • Oil closed at 68.28, gained 1.5% for the week, and has gained 13.21% year-to-date. 
  • And, further analysis regarding oil and volatility can be read at this post.