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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Monday, June 17, 2013


TNX 10-Yr Weekly:

TNX:SPX 10-Yr Weekly ratio:

TNX 2-Yr Daily:

TNX:SPX 2-Yr Daily ratio:

Resistance and support on TNX Daily @ 23.00 & 21.00
Resistance and support on TNX:SPX Daily ratio @ 0.014 and 0.013

I'll be watching the ratio closely over the next while...looking for either continued strength in TNX vs. SPX, or a retreat of rising rates against any further strength in the SPX.

The Fed may have to increase its bond purchases from $85B/month if it is going to continue to suppress rates on any further meaningful and sustainable advance in equities beyond current levels.

***UPDATE June 20th (10:15 am ET): Prior resistance of 0.014 is now broken on TNX:SPX ratio...next resistance level is 0.015 on rising momentum.

***UPDATE June 21st: Prior resistance of 0.015 is now broken on the TNX:SPX ratio to form near-term support and closed today at 0.016. You can see from this link (and below) that all indicators are at elevated levels now, but have yet to begin to decline...ones to watch for any evidence of slowing momentum in rising yield. The next resistance levels are at 0.018 and 0.020.