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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

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NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Friday, September 09, 2016

Volatility Back Into "Major Conflict Zone"

After today's (Friday's) 53.5 point drop on the SPX, volatility has now fallen back into the "Major Conflict Zone," as depicted on the following 20-Year Monthly ratio chart of SPX:VIX.


As I mentioned here and here, a drop and hold below the 150 Bull/Bear line-in-the-sand level would see a retest of the June 27th lows. You can see from the 60-Day 60-Minute ratio chart below, price closed today at 121.5. There are two remaining gaps below that level yet to be filled, which, when filled, would realize that retest.


Each candle on the following ratio chart depicts One Year. You can see clearly that today's close sits just above the 116.61 open of the 2007 candle.


Each candle on the following ratio chart depicts One-Quarter of One Year. As of today's closing level, upward Momentum is lower now than it was at the open of the Q1 2007 candle...hinting that the buying and bullishness seen on the SPX this year (which pushed Momentum to an all-time parabolic level on the Monthly ratio chart), is, in fact, weak, unsustainable, and without serious merit.


CONCLUSIONS:

Volatility has now risen sharply, after a summer of complacency. Look for wild swings in both directions on these ratio charts as long as price remains below 150. And, if it drops below 80.00, after a retest of the June 27th lows, I'd say that equity markets are in serious trouble and in for a substantial drop.