Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Fri. April 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. April 10 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. April 17 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. May 1 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Friday, September 30, 2022

SPX: A Big-Picture Market Perspective...Still Room For More Rate Hikes and Market Weakness

Check out the following two long-range monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

With the current Federal Reserve Interest Rate still only at 3-3.25%, and the SPX still 395% above its 2009 low, it seems to me that there is still a lot of room for more rate hikes to tame inflation, which may bring price down to around 3200 -- its first major support level -- or even lower.

That would blow off the excess parabolic froth that was created in this market from mid-2020 and bring equities more in line with actual economic and global supply-chain conditions.

Until we see the SPX:VIX ratio fall to somewhere around 80.00 or, more likely, 60.00, I don't think we're close to an equity capitulation yet.

So, look for more rate hikes ahead and more SPX weakness...which is in line with my conclusions in my post of September 24.

P.S. The SPX closed the daymonthQ3 and YTD much lower and just a breath above its low of the day, month, Q3, and YTD...at 3585.62.