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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

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IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...

Thursday, December 29, 2011

European Money Supply and Private Loans Dip

Another time-out from my mini-holiday to slip this in:

Data released pre-market today showed a drop in European Money Supply, as shown on the graph below (courtesy of www.forexfactory.com). As can be seen, the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks is still well below the levels seen from 2000 to 2009...not a healthy sign that would point to additional spending and investment in Europe.


Additionally, data released pre-market today showed a drop in Private Loans to consumers and businesses, as shown on the graph below. As well, the level of loans taken out are well below the levels seen from 2003 to 2009...which indicates that consumers and businesses are not confident in their future financial position, nor do they feel comfortable spending money.


Below is a Monthly chart of EUR/USD. At the moment, price has dipped below the 1.30 level and is hovering below trendline support. It has had difficulty moving above the 1.50 level since 2009 and has been, basically, range-bound from around 1.90/20 to 1.50. There is confluence support around 1.24...a break of that level could send price down to 1.20...a break of that level with confidence could see price drop to a confluence support level around 1.09/10.

This big picture view of the Euro tells me that it is weak and has not been able to sustain its rallies above 1.20 since October 2008. I wouldn't be surprised to see it retest that level sometime in the new year, with a possible dip, or significant drop, below. Also, the economic releases out of Europe lately (which I've posted) all point to a shrinking economy...there's no reason the currency shouldn't also follow suit.


Back to my holiday...